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Integrated Development Planning MMMODIMOLLE LLLOCAL MMMUNICIPALITY IIINTEGRATED DDDEVELOPMENT PPPLAN 2008/2008/202020201212 STATUS QUO 2 DEMOGRAPHICS 3 Table 1 Total population and growth projections 1991 1996 2001 2006 2007 29,293 50,030 72,806 103,507 125 411 Rate 1991-1996 (8.3%) 1996-2001 (7.8%) Rate 2001-2006 (7.3%) POPULATION GROWTH POPULATION GROWTH 140000 120000 100000 1991 80000 1996 60000 2001 40000 2006 20000 2007 0 1 2 The population of Modimolle has been growing at a rate of 7.8% p.a. over the last 10 yrs. this raised the population from 29,293 in 1991-96 statistics to 103,507 a growth of 74 214 in the last 10 yrs (Statssa). This can be attributed to the previous demarcations (Vaal water TLC), (Greater Nylstroom) the farming areas and massive influx into the area. Another contributing factor is the relocation of Government services to the area. According to the current figures from the community survey the population is 125 411. This implies a growth rate of 8.2% since the last projections in 2007. 4 The current figures for the total number of households are at 33370 from the previous official figure of 17544. GROWTH RATE 8.4 8.2 8 91-96 7.8 1996-2001 7.6 2001-2006 7.4 7.2 2006-2007 7 6.8 1 5 Table 2 Population Distribution by race Category 1996 2001 Number Percentage Number Percentage Black African 38,465 76.88% 62,580 85.98% Coloured 204 0.41% 241 0.33% Indian or Asian 154 0.31% 137 0.19% White 11,207 22.40% 9,824 13.50% Total 50,030 100.00% 72,782 100.00% 6 According to table 2, the population of Modimolle in 1996 was estimated at 50,030 and in 2001 it rose to 72,782. This marked an increase of 22 752. The percentage of Blacks rose from 76.88 (38,465) to 85.98 (62.580) an increase of 7.1%. The percentage of Coloured population dropped from 0.41 in 1996 to 0.33 in 2001 followed by the Indian community with Location 1996 2001 0.31 in 1996 to 0.19 in 2001. The drastic decrease is that of the white population Number Percentage Number Percentage from 22.40 1n1996 to 13.50 in 2001, a Modimolle/Phahameng decrease of 8.9%. The increase in the Mabatlane/Leseding Black community is attributed to the influx of Government officials and farm evictions. Mabaleng Total Table 3 Population distribution by area From 1996-2001, the rural population dropped from 53.58% in 1996 to 42.10% in 2001. This was counterbalanced by an increase of the urban population which rose from 46.42% in 1996 to 57.90 in 2001. The population shifts can be attributed to the amalgamation former TLC s, decline of Agriculture sector, change of land use, urbanisation and ultimately evictions from the rural Modimolle from the mid-90’s to present. There is a strong urban domination, with Mabatlane and Leseding in particular showing rapid urban development. Whilst the NSDP encourages migration to areas with Development potential, this trend has placed an enormous strain on the financial resources of municipalities to provide basic services to the increasing population in urban areas. 7 Category 1996 2001 Percentage Number Percentage Number Female 00-04 yrs 2,327 5.35% 4,005 5.50% Female 05-09 yrs 2,354 5.41% 3,609 4.96% Female 10-14 yrs 2,183 5.01% 3,841 5.28% Female 15-19 yrs 2,073 4.76% 3,905 5.37% Table 4 Distributions by Age and Gender Female 20-2470-74 yrs 1,931414 4.44%0.95% 3,503593 4.81%0.81% Female 25-2975-79 yrs 1,643264 3.77%0.61% 3,534398 4.86%0.55% Female 30-3480 plus yrs 1,571274 3.61%0.63% 2,889470 3.97%0.65% yrs Female 35-39 yrs 1,287 2.96% 2,387 3.28% Female 40-44 yrs 1,213 2.79% 1,966 2.70% Female 45-49 yrs 887 2.04% 1,667 2.29% Female 50-54 yrs 766 1.76% 1,081 1.49% Female 55-59 yrs 738 1.70% 940 1.29% Female 60-64 yrs 652 1.50% 952 1.31% Female 65-69 yrs 566 1.30% 747 1.03% 8 Male 00-04 yrs 2,309 5.30% 4,010 5.51% Male 05-09 yrs 2,278 5.23% 3,830 5.26% Male 10-14 yrs 2,489 5.72% 3,680 5.06% Male 15-19 yrs 2,238 5.14% 3,814 5.24% Male 20-24 yrs 2,363 5.43% 3,530 4.85% Male 25-29 yrs 1,929 4.43% 3,677 5.05% Male 30-34 yrs 1,624 3.73% 2,966 4.08% Male 35-39 yrs 1,441 3.31% 2,517 3.46% Male 40-44 yrs 1,205 2.77% 1,771 2.43% Male 45-49 yrs 964 2.21% 1,701 2.34% Male 50-54 yrs 765 1.76% 1,236 1.70% Male 55-59 yrs 738 1.70% 916 1.26% Male 60-64 yrs 613 1.41% 847 1.16% Male 65-69 yrs 566 1.30% 560 0.77% Male 70-74 yrs 363 0.83% 582 0.80% Male 75-79 yrs 293 0.67% 313 0.43% Male 80 plus yrs 213 0.49% 325 0.45% Total 43,534 100.00% 72,762 100.00% 9 According to population distribution by Age and Gender, infants constitute 10.11% of the population whilst children of school going age constitute 25.6% of the population. The youth constitute 20.27% and the matured adults constitute 40.24% and the aged merely 5.49. These figures indicate that 60.51% can be classified as economically active. The challenges with regard to the various age groups: a) Infants : children below the ages of 5yrs are vulnerable to disease and malnutrition. It is at this stage that development of an individual is determined. “The environment, including home education contributes to the character of an individual at latter stages in life” (stages in the life of South Africans, 2005). There is an indication however, that majority of infants live with head of the household as a parent. There is further indication that 46.1% of infants either live with grand parents or relatives. This is usually attributed to outward migratory trends. The impact is that in the category of living with parents or relatives, is an increase in child grants and foster care grants. The main challenge however remains the state of early childhood development. Majority of infants who attend early childhood development centers are not from the poor households and are from poor households or households with little income. Another is infants born with disabilities with regard to; sight, hearing, physical and multiple disabilities. a) Youth : The youth constitutes 20% of the population. This category is characterized as school going, school leavers and graduates. Majority of this category currently constitutes majority of the unemployed due to lack of skills and perceptions around elementary jobs. 6 in every 10/ 59.1% have attained a grade 6 However, the challenge we have to meet the skills requirement in line with JIPSA. This is not contributing or working towards the objects of ASGISA & JIPSA. b) Matured adults: Matured adults in MODIMOLLE constitute 40.24% of the entire population. 2/3 of this population group was considered married at the time of statistic. Majority of the declared adults have been classified as married. c) The Elderly: The Elderly in MODIMOLLE constitute 5.49% of the population. This category is faced with challenges of having access to old age grants as a result of faulty or non-availability of proper identification. The time and distance spent visiting pay points and health facilities, in particular the Africans. 10 Table 5 Gender Distribution Category 1996 2001 Number Percentage Number Percentage Female 24,253 48.48% 36,538 50.20% Male 25,777 51.52% 36,249 49.80% Total 50,030 100.00% 72,787 100.00% According to gender distribution, during the 1996 census, 48.48% was female and 51. 52 were male. These figures were relating only to the former Nylstroom (Modimolle) TLC. In 2001, 50.20% were females and 49.80% were males. These figures included the whole Modimolle area, including the former Vaalwater (Mabatlane/Mabaleng) TLC. The changes in 11 the gender distribution can be attributed to the fact that females constitute a large number of the labour force in the rural, in particular the farming areas. Table 6 Household Sizes HOUSEHOLD BLACK COLOURED INDIAN WHITE SIZE A change in the number of households has an 1 3820 22 4 640 impact on services backlogs. An increase in 2 2623 17 8 1364 the number of households increases the 3 1884 3 6 403 4 1726 6 8 346 number of services connections/provision and 5 1336 5 4 204 the need for increased bulk infrastructure. 6 1028 4 0 75 According to STATSA, Modimolle in 1996 had 7 671 0 0 21 9103 HH and 19597 in 2001. This was a 8 489 0 0 4 9 320 0 0 0 percentage increase of 46, 4 %. During the 10+ 495 0 0 0 2001 Statistics, the total number of Source: STASSA (2001) households included the farming communities. HOUSEHOLD SIZE According to this table the Black population 5000 has the highest number of people in 4000 BLACK households more than the average of 5.1%.
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