TRANSBOUNDARY CLIMATE SECURITY CLIMATE VULNERABILITY AND RURAL LIVELIHOODS IN THE JORDAN RIVER BASIN London School of Economics and Political Science Birzeit University Lead Authors Michael Mason and Ziad Mimi Final Project Report About the LSE Middle East Centre The LSE Middle East Centre opened in 2010. It builds on LSE’s long engagement with the Middle East and provides a central hub for the wide range of research on the region carried out at LSE. The Middle East Centre aims to enhance understanding and develop rigorous research on the societies, economies, polities, and international relations of the region. The Centre promotes both specialized knowledge and public understanding of this crucial area and has outstanding strengths in inter-disciplinary research and in regional expertise. As one of the world’s leading social science institutions, LSE comprises departments covering all branches of the social sciences. The Middle East Centre harnesses this expertise to promote innovative interdisciplinary research and training on the region. The Middle East Centre engages in a wide variety of activities, including: • Promoting open and critical debate about the politics, societies and economics of the Middle East and North Africa; • Disseminating knowledge about the Middle East through Centre’s lectures, web re- sources, and publications and through LSE, community and media activities; • Fostering research and training among LSE and visiting scholars and students; • Providing a rich research environment for the development of new scholars; • Establishing and cultivating ties with Middle East institutions; • Stimulating collaboration with scholars in other international institutions. Cover Image: Spring Water Extraction and Olive Grove in Upper Hasbani, Lebanon. Michael Mason, June 2014. TRANSBOUNDARY CLIMATE SECURITY CLIMATE VULNERABILITY AND RURAL LIVELIHOODS IN THE JORDAN RIVER BASIN London School of Economics and Political Science Birzeit University Lead Authors Michael Mason and Ziad Mimi Final Project Report November 2014 The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) or the Middle East Centre. This document is issued on the understanding that if any extract is used, the author(s) and the LSE Middle East Centre should be credited, with the date of the publication. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the material in this paper, the author(s) and/or the LSE Middle East Centre will not be liable for any loss or damages incurred through the use of this paper. Contents List of Figures 5 List of Tables 6 Executive Summary 8 Executive Summary (Arabic) 11 Introduction 14 Research Aims 16 Summary of Project Activities 18 Understanding Climate Vulnerability 20 Methodology 23 Rapid Rural Assessment and Pilot Questionnaires 25 Field Research I (January - April 2013) 25 Field Research II (July - September 2013) 29 Data Analysis 31 Jordan Rift Valley: Study Area Profile 32 Area and Population 32 Topography and Land Use 34 Climate 36 Water Resources 38 Water and Occupation 39 Geopolitical Context 40 Socio-economic Indicators 44 The Occupied Golan Heights: Study Area Profile 45 Area and Population 45 Topography and Land Use 45 Climate 47 Water Resources 47 4 Transboundary Climate Security: Climate Vulnerability and Rural Livelihoods in the Jordan River Basin Water and Occupation 47 Geopolitical Context 48 Socio-Economic Indicators 50 Southern Lebanon: Hasbani Watershed Study Area Profile 51 Area and Population 51 Topography and Land Use 54 Climate 56 Water Resources 57 (Post)Occupation Context 61 Socio-Economic Indicators 61 Jordan Rift Valley: Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Assessment 63 Determinants of Climate Vulnerability 63 Adaptive Capacity 66 West Bank Focus Group 69 Occupied Golan Heights: Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Assessment 72 Determinants of Climate Vulnerability 72 Adaptive Capacity 77 Occupied Golan Heights Focus Group 83 Southern Lebanon: Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Assessment 88 Determinants of Climate Vulnerability 88 Adaptive Capacity 90 South Lebanon Focus Group 94 Conclusions 99 Key Findings 99 Policy Implications 100 References 103 List of Figures Figure 1.1: Mean Temperature of the Control Period and Future Changes for the Two 14 IPCC Scenarios A2 and B2 Figure 1.2: Mean Annual Precipitation of the Control Period and Relative Future 15 Changes for the Two IPCC Scenarios A2 and B2 Figure 1.3: The Jordan River Basin Showing the Three Study Areas 17 Figure 4.1: The Jordan Rift Valley 35 Figure 4.2: Mean Monthly Temperature from Jericho Meteorological Station 36 Figure 4.3: Annual Average Rainfall from Jericho and Tubas Meteorological Stations 37 Figure 4.4: The Declining Number of Animal Livestock in the Jordan Rift Valley (2000-2010) 42 Figure 5.1: The Golan Heights 49 Figure 6.1: The Jordan River Basin Showing Upper Reaches Including the Hasbani River 52 Figure 6.2: The Distribution of Population over Towns and Villages in the Hasbani Basin 53 Figure 6.3: Physiography of the Hasbani Basin 54 Figure 6.4: Land Use/Land Cover Map of the Hasbani Watershed 55 Figure 6.5: The Main Drainage Lines over the Hasbani Basin 60 Figure 7.1: Water Sources for Domestic Use 63 Figure 7.2: Water Sources for Agricultural Use 64 Figure 8.1: Farmers’ Perceptions of Main Reason for Changes to their Farming Practices 73 Figure 8.2: Average Annual Income from Agriculture 74 Figure 8.3: Perceived Effectiveness of Climate-Related Coping Practices 81 Figure 8.4: Perceived Solutions to Climate Change Impacts on Farming 82 Figure 8.5: Summary of Questionnaire Results and Focus Group Findings 83 List of Tables Table 3.1: Data Collection 24 Table 3.2: West Bank Communities Surveyed 26 Table 3.3: Distribution of Survey Sampling Localities in the Hasbani Basin 28 Table 3.4: Summary of Major Questionnaire Findings for Focus Group Discussion 30 Table 3.5: Data Analysis 31 Table 4.1: Localities and Population Projection of the Study Area 32 Table 4.2: Present Land Use in the Study Area 34 Table 4.3: Major Wadi Basins in the Study Area 38 Table 4.4: Springs in the Study Area 38 Table 5.1: Population in Occupied Golan Heights 45 Table 6.1: Lebanon: Annual Water Flows 58 Table 6.2: Lebanon: Freshwater Availability 58 Table 8.1: Perceived Climatic Changes in the Occupied Golan Heights 72 Table 8.2: Effects of Occupation on Agriculture in the Golan Heights 77 Table 8.3: Coping Practices Used by farmers 78 Table 8.4: Sources of Adoption by Farmers of Coping Practices 79 Table 8.5: Coping with Farming Changes: Needs and Possibilities for Action 79 Table 8.6: Coping with Farming Changes: Methods and Constraints 80 Table 9.1: Perceived Need for Coping Action and Suggested Policy Responses 90 Table 9.2: Use of Coping Practices by Farming Households 92 Table 9.3: Proposed Climate Change Adaptation Measures 93 Acknowledgements Funded generously by the Emirates Foundation for Philanthropy through the LSE Middle East Centre, the ‘Transboundary Climate Security’ research project was undertaken by a partnership between LSE and Birzeit University, Palestine. It began in June 2012 and formally ended in June 2014. The project co-directors were Dr Michael Mason (Department of Geography and Environment, LSE) and Dr Ziad Mimi (Civil Engineering Department, Birzeit University). There was a project consultant, Dr Mark Zeitoun (School of International Development, University of East Anglia) and five project researchers: • Ms Janan Mousa (project researcher for the West Bank) • Ms Muna Dajani (project researcher for the Golan Heights) • Dr Mohammed Khawlie (lead project researcher for southern Lebanon) • Ms Sireen Abu-Jamous (project researcher for the West Bank) • Mr Hussam Hussein (general project researcher) In order to facilitate access to farmers in the occupied Golan Heights, the project also employed as a consultant Dr Taiseer Maray, director of the NGO Golan for Development. His assistance is gratefully acknowledged. In Lebanon the project team is also very grateful for the assistance of Dr Chadi Abdallah, Dr Safa Baydoun, Helen Dallah and Ousama Halablab. At the LSE Middle East Centre, the project benefited from the support of Pro- fessor Fawas Gerges, Professor Toby Dodge, Robert Lowe, Ribale Sleiman Haidar and Sara Masry. The content of this project report is the responsibility of the project team and named authors. None of the views expressed in the report are necessarily those of, or endorsed by, the funders (Emirates Foundation for Philanthropy) or the host institutions (LSE and Birzeit University). Executive Summary Funded by the Emirates Foundation for Philanthro- 1. To identify the main determinants of climate py through the LSE Middle East Centre, the ‘Trans- vulnerability for selected rural communities under boundary Climate Security’ research project was un- (post)occupation dertaken by a partnership between LSE and Birzeit Across the three study areas, farmers’ perceptions University, Palestine. It began in June 2012 and for- within the past 10-20 years of reduced water avail- mally ended in June 2014. ability, increased annual mean temperatures and a delayed rainy season corroborate scientific iden- This study investigates the climate-related vulnera- tification of a regional drying trend. This trend is bilities of agricultural communities in (post)occupa- broadly consistent with scientific projections of cli- tion environments. Following the Intergovernmental mate change for the