The Probability of Monophyly of a Sample of Gene Lineages on a Species Tree
PAPER The probability of monophyly of a sample of gene COLLOQUIUM lineages on a species tree Rohan S. Mehtaa,1, David Bryantb, and Noah A. Rosenberga aDepartment of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305; and bDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Otago, Dunedin 9054, New Zealand Edited by John C. Avise, University of California, Irvine, CA, and approved April 18, 2016 (received for review February 5, 2016) Monophyletic groups—groups that consist of all of the descendants loci that are reciprocally monophyletic is informative about the of a most recent common ancestor—arise naturally as a conse- time since species divergence and can assist in representing the quence of descent processes that result in meaningful distinctions level of differentiation between groups (4, 18). between organisms. Aspects of monophyly are therefore central to Many empirical investigations of genealogical phenomena have fields that examine and use genealogical descent. In particular, stud- made use of conceptual and statistical properties of monophyly ies in conservation genetics, phylogeography, population genetics, (19). Comparisons of observed monophyly levels to model pre- species delimitation, and systematics can all make use of mathemat- dictions have been used to provide information about species di- ical predictions under evolutionary models about features of mono- vergence times (20, 21). Model-based monophyly computations phyly. One important calculation, the probability that a set of gene have been used alongside DNA sequence differences between and lineages is monophyletic under a two-species neutral coalescent within proposed clades to argue for the existence of the clades model, has been used in many studies. Here, we extend this calcu- (22), and tests involving reciprocal monophyly have been used to lation for a species tree model that contains arbitrarily many species.
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