FIIA REPORT 51 Managing Unpredictability Transatlantic relations in the Trump era Mika Aaltola and Bart Gaens (eds.) FIIA REPORT 51 Managing Unpredictability Transatlantic relations in the Trump era Managing Unpredictability Transatlantic relations in the Trump era Mika Aaltola and Bart Gaens (eds.) ULKOPOLIITTINEN INSTITUUTTI UTRIKESPOLITISKA INSTITUTET THE FINNISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS FIIA rePort 51 Reports can be ordered from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. +358 9 432 7707 [email protected] All FIIA reports and other publications are also available on our website at www.fiia.fi. Language editing: Joan Nordlund Graphic design: Nordenswan & Siirilä Oy / Tuomas Kortteinen Layout: Kaarina Tammisto Printed by Grano Oy, 2017 The Finnish Institute of International Affairs Ulkopoliittinen instituutti PL 400 00161 Helsinki Finland www.fiia.fi ISBN 978-951-769-535-0 (print) ISBN 978-951-769-536-7 (web) ISSN 2323-5454 The Finnish Institute of International Affairs is an independent research institute that produces high-level research to support political decision-making and public debate both nationally and internationally. All manuscripts are reviewed by at least two other experts in the field to ensure the high quality of the publications. In addition, publications undergo professional language checking and editing. The responsibility for the views expressed ultimately rests with the authors. Table of contents PreFAce 9 INtroductIoN 11 1 doeS the LIBerAL worLd order hAve A Future? 21 James Traub 2 PreSeNt At the (re)creAtIoN? wordS and deedS IN AN emergINg trumP ForeIgN PoLIcy ANd the coNSequeNceS For euroPeAN SecurIty 35 Kari Möttölä 3 Possible Future treNdS IN uS ForeIgN ANd SecurIty PoLIcIeS regArding the BALtIc regIoN ANd euroPe 59 Aap Neljas 4 A tIme For alterNAtIve oPtIoNS? ProSPectS For the NordIc-BALtIc SecurIty commuNIty durINg the trumP erA 75 Eoin Micheál McNamara 5 the eNhANced ForwArd PreSeNce oF allieS StreNgtheNS SecurIty IN the BALtIc SeA regIoN ANd the trANSAtLANtIc link 101 Kalev Stoicescu 6 ShIFtINg uS–ruSSIAN reLAtIons 117 Donald N. Jensen 7 trANSAtLANtIc deFeNce ANd SecurIty reLAtIons uNder the doNALd trumP AdmINIStrAtIoN: A New parAdIgm? 127 Leo Michel coNcLuSIoN 149 ABout the coNtrIButorS 157 PrevIouSLy PuBLIShed IN the SerIeS 161 Preface This report is the outcome of the third Helsinki Summer Session, a high- level annual conference organized by the Center on US Politics and Power (CUSPP) at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. The conference took place from 31 August to 2 September 2016, and revolved around the theme of “US policies in Northern Europe”. An interdisciplinary event, the Helsinki Summer Session examined the drivers of the transatlantic partnership from the perspective of the Nordic-Baltic states. It assessed the impact of US global commitments, economic resources, cultural and value-related ties, and changing conceptualizations of the US global role. The conference also looked ahead to the future of US foreign policy, its global role and the transatlantic partnership in the light of the upcoming presidential elections. A few months after the Helsinki Summer Session, however, the start of the administration under President Donald Trump led to a strongly perceived shift in US foreign policy, including in transatlantic relations. It seemed that the advent of the Trump era, marked by an inclination towards hard power, national self interest, protectionism and transactionalism, necessitated a fundamental rethink of the global role of the US, its relations with Europe and, indeed, the rule-based international order. The contributors to this report were all compelled to adapt their initial conference papers to the new and occasionally inconsistent rhetoric coming from Washington, as well as to the policy shifts these messages could potentially portend. This report therefore sets out to chart the main contours of the ongoing recalibration of transatlantic relations in the Trump era, including in the context of Nordic-Baltic security. It starts from the larger picture, assessing how internal as well as external threats to the 9 liberal world order have resulted in a loss of faith in the foundations and institutions of the post-war system. The analysis then shifts to the Trump administration’s rhetoric and action, and its impact on the European security order. The focus thereafter settles on the Nordic- Baltic region, and the inherent challenges, priorities, and opportunities for an evolving regional defence and security strategy. The report also pays attention to US relations with Russia, a relationship marked by competition and volatility as well as potential pragmatic cooperation. Finally, and significantly, a key part of the analysis focuses on the rise of a possible new paradigm for transatlantic defence and security relations, and its effect on NATO as well as on US-Europe bilateral relations. A core theme running through all the chapters is the belief that transatlantic relations are going through a period of transition as well as uncertainty. A key challenge for the years to come concerns how to manage this unpredictability. At the same time, however, this era of transition offers an opportunity to “re-imagine” a transatlantic relationship that supports a reformed liberal order. The editors of this report wish to thank all the participants in the Helsinki Summer Session for their high-level intellectual input, and especially the contributors to this report who were willing to undergo several rounds of comments and to revise their chapters accordingly. The Helsinki Summer Session is funded by the Jane and Aatos Erkko Foundation. On behalf of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, the editors would like to express their sincere gratitude to the Foundation for its generous support. 10 MANAGING UNPREDICTABILITY Introduction For years, US foreign policy has been rooted in a relative consensus over the need to take on a global-leadership role, to safeguard past commitments, and to remain actively engaged regionally as well as globally. At present, however, it seems that the mode of relatively active multilateral engagement during the Obama years has transformed into a pattern of competitive relationships, transactional bilateralism, and a tendency to use harder power to gain an advantage over others. After President Trump’s first tour in the Middle East and Europe, his national security advisor H. R. McMasters together with Gary D. Cohn argued in a Wall Street Journal op-ed that criticism of Trump for isolating and weakening the US was misplaced. As they stated: “The President embarked on his first foreign trip with a clear-eyed outlook that the world is not a ‘global community’ but an arena where nations, nongovernmental actors and businesses engage and compete for advantage. We bring to this forum unmatched military, political, economic, cultural and moral strength. Rather than deny this elemental nature of international affairs, we embrace it.” The perception that there was no global community based on generally shared norms represented a departure from the more normative approach of the Obama years when the US leadership was based on the need to have a global approach to major structural challenges, including climate change. The new approach passes over normative standpoints, such as human rights, in arguing that the US had suffered relative losses when it tried to arbitrate win-win situations, and emphasized the economic and geopolitical necessity of relative gains. This report examines the consequences of the ongoing recalibration, or even transformation, in the transatlantic engine of the rule-based international order. More specifically, it examines Nordic-Baltic security 11 as a case in point of the ongoing changes. How are the changes in the key institutional embodiments of the liberal order, as exemplified by NATO and the EU, sustained and how might their interrelationships materialize in the future? Moreover, what is the impact on smaller member states, allies and partners in the North, specifically in terms of their developing roles as they confront different types of traditional and hybrid security challenges? Recent analyses have been leaning towards declinism, whereas others have tended to be hyperbolic. However, they all point out the consequential changes taking place in the West. Anne Applebaum states in her op-ed from Spring 2016: “Right now, we are two or three bad elections away from the end of NATO, the end of the European Union and maybe the end of the liberal world order as we know it”.1 She was referring to Brexit, the US Presidential elections, and the French presidential elections. Two of the three “bad elections” turned out to be just that. This leads to the question of what the supposed near “end” of the West looks like. What are its causes and security-related consequences? This report assesses the dynamics taking place in the West’s main axis, the transatlantic relationship. These dynamics are driven by domestic factors, as well as by the different states facing the challenge of the structural pressures of our time, including the global economy, transnational value chains, the information-technology revolution and climate change. Other pertinent questions are also explored. What are the main characteristics of the ongoing dynamics involving the new administration in the US that, at least rhetorically, have challenged some key international institutions? How is the American transformation perceived in the European