Norfolk County Council the ECONOMIC IMPACTS of the NDR
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Norfolk County Council THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF THE NDR Final Report June 2005 ROGER TYM & PARTNERS Fairfax House 15 Fulwood Place London WC1V 6HU t 020 7831 2711 f 020 7831 7653 e [email protected] w www.tymconsult.com This document is formatted for double-sided printing. P1585 NDR Economic Impacts Final Report CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.................................................................................................... 1 The need for transport infrastructure investment ............................................................1 The effects of the NDR on the existing economy and labour markets.............................1 Findings of our business consultation.............................................................................3 Labour market effects .....................................................................................................3 Effects on social exclusion..............................................................................................3 Effects on inward investment and property development................................................4 Effects on areas considered peripheral...........................................................................4 Summary ........................................................................................................................5 1 INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................................... 7 2 METHOD ................................................................................................................... 11 Introduction...................................................................................................................11 Evaluating the impact of the Northern Distributor Route ...............................................11 Impact Zones ................................................................................................................12 3 THE SCHEME............................................................................................................ 17 Introduction...................................................................................................................17 The NDR Project...........................................................................................................17 4 POLICY CONTEXT.................................................................................................... 21 Introduction...................................................................................................................21 Regional policies...........................................................................................................21 County policies .............................................................................................................24 Local policies ................................................................................................................24 Summary ......................................................................................................................26 5 UNDERSTANDING THE WIDER SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF THE NDR27 Introduction...................................................................................................................27 6 TO WHAT EXTENT IS THERE A NEED FOR MORE TRANSPORT INVESTMENT?. 29 Introduction...................................................................................................................29 Population change ........................................................................................................29 Jobs change .................................................................................................................32 Projected GVA, investment and income growth............................................................34 Where growth is likely to be ..........................................................................................35 Increasing demand for transport ...................................................................................35 Summary ......................................................................................................................36 7 THE ECONOMIC CONTEXT...................................................................................... 38 Introduction...................................................................................................................38 What are the characteristics of the existing economy? .................................................38 Summary ......................................................................................................................43 8 HOW WILL THE ECONOMY BE AFFECTED BY THE NDR?..................................... 45 Introduction...................................................................................................................45 Which sectors of the economy can be expected to be most influenced by road transport infrastructure improvements? .......................................................................................45 To what extent are the sectors positively affected by road infrastructure present in the economy? Where are they located? ............................................................................46 What effect will the NDR have on the tourism sector? ..................................................54 What effect will the NDR have on Norwich Airport? ......................................................57 What effects will the NDR have on the city centre? ......................................................61 Consultation with businesses........................................................................................62 Roger Tym & Partners June 2005 3 NDR Economic Impacts Final Report Summary ......................................................................................................................66 9 HOW WILL LABOUR MARKETS BE AFFECTED BY THE NDR?............................... 69 Introduction...................................................................................................................69 Patterns of labour market movement............................................................................69 Company growth and unemployment ...........................................................................70 Economic activity ..........................................................................................................72 Summary ......................................................................................................................73 10 WILL THE NDR HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON LEVELS OF SOCIAL EXCLUSION?........ 75 Introduction...................................................................................................................75 The relationship between social exclusion and transport provision ..............................75 Deprivation in Norwich and Norfolk...............................................................................76 Summary ......................................................................................................................80 11 HOW MIGHT INWARD INVESTMENT AND NEW GROWTH BE AFFECTED BY THE NDR?......................................................................................................................... 81 The context for inward investment ................................................................................81 The property market and the effects of the NDR...........................................................83 Sites potentially influenced by the NDR........................................................................85 Attracting investment and business start-ups to areas previously considered remote 100 Summary ....................................................................................................................101 Roger Tym & Partners June 2005 4 Economic Impacts of the NDR Final report EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Here we summarise our findings. We have made remarks on route options in bold text. The need for transport infrastructure investment Policy and economic/demographic trends and projections suggest that Norfolk and the Norwich Urban area are likely to experience significant growth in future. This translates into strong traffic growth, expected to be an additional 50% in the number of trips in the morning and evening peak periods. Given the likely growth of the urban area, there is clear evidence that additional transport investment should be considered. The effects of the NDR on the existing economy and labour markets The NDR will have effects on the existing economy. In the office sector, infrastructure investment’s main impact is to expand labour market catchments. As a result of office employment over-representation in the local economy, Wroxham (including Rackheath and Sprowston) and Thorpe St Andrew are likely to be most affected. In site-specific terms, office developments near the road (such as Broadland Business Park and the Airport Industrial Estate envisaged in the RSS) are likely to be the key areas where most positive benefit is felt. Industry and warehousing is influenced by improved access to customers and suppliers. Wroxham (including Rackheath and Sprowston) stands to gain the most from any of the NDR route options, but Spixworth’s industrial sector would also benefit from the ¾ and full routes. Retail is influenced by improved access to customers. Our analysis indicates that in the retail sector,