Increasing Educational Attainment in Missouri: an Imperative for Future Prosperity

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Increasing Educational Attainment in Missouri: an Imperative for Future Prosperity 20162017 ANNUAL HigherREPORT20162017 Education to the Member States in Focus 2017 ANNUAL Selected Performance Indicators REPORT to the Member States MHEC Est. 1991 ABOUT THE MIDWESTERN HIGHER COMPACT LEADERSHIP, 2017-2018 EDUCATION COMPACT Chair: Mr. Tim Flakoll, North Dakota Governor’s Designee; The Midwestern Higher Education Compact is a nonprofit Vice Chair: Dr. Ken Sauer, Indiana Commission for Higher regional organization, established by compact statute, to Education; Treasurer: Ms. Olivia Madison, Iowa State assist Midwestern states in advancing higher education University (retired). Immediate Past Chair: Mr. Richard through interstate cooperation and resource sharing. Short, Kansas Governor’s Designee Member states are Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, President: Mr. Larry Isaak Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. Collectively, the © Copyright 2017 Midwestern Higher Education Compact. Compact creates solutions that build higher education’s All rights reserved. capacity to better serve individuals, institutions, and Correspondence concerning this report should be sent to states by leveraging the region’s expertise, ideas, and Aaron Horn, Director for Policy Research, experiences through multi-state convening, programs, [email protected]. contracts, and research. Updates to this report may be found at: http://www.mhec.org/research. 2 2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI Selected Performance Indicators INCREASING EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT 5 Transfer-Adjusted Percentage of First-Time, Certificate/ Degree-Seeking Students in the Fall 2010 Cohort who Job Openings by Occupation and Education Level between Completed a Certificate or Degree within Six Years by 2010 and 2020 (in thousands) ..............................6 Starting Institution: Full-Time Students ....................20 Percentage of Adults Aged 25-64 who have Attained a Institutional Effectiveness in Promoting Timely Degree Postsecondary Credential .................................6 Completion .............................................21 PREPARATION 7 EQUITY 22 Percentage of Children Ages 3 to 4 Enrolled in Preschool .....8 Percentage of Low- and Higher-Income Students in Grade 8 Scoring At or Above Proficiency on the National Percentage of Students in Grade 8 Scoring At or Above Assessment of Educational Progress in Math, Reading, and Proficiency on the National Assessment of Educational Science .................................................23 Progress in Math, Reading, and Science.....................9 Public High School Graduation Rates among Low- and Public High School Graduation Rate Over Time ..............9 Higher-Income Students .................................24 Percentage of High School Graduates Taking the ACT Percentage of Dependent 18- to 24-Year-Old Residents during 2013 and 2016......................................9 Who Have Enrolled in or Have Completed Some College by Percentage of ACT-Tested High School Graduates Family Income...........................................24 Who Met or Exceeded College Readiness Benchmark Percentage of First-Time, Full-Time, Baccalaureate-Seeking Scores ..................................................10 Students in the Fall 2007 Cohort who Graduated within Six Years at Public Four-Year Institutions: Pell Grant Recipients vs. Non-Pell Recipients...................................25 PARTICIPATION 11 Percentage of High School Graduates Going Directly to College ..............................................12 FINANCE 26 Percentage of Persons Aged 18-24 who are Currently State and Local Educational Appropriations for Higher Enrolled or Have Completed Some College.................12 Education per FTE Student ...............................27 Percentage of Persons Aged 25-49 without an State Fiscal Support for Higher Education per $1,000 of Associate Degree or Higher who are Currently Enrolled in Personal Income.........................................27 College .................................................13 State and Local Educational Appropriations and Net Tuition Revenue as a Percentage of Total Educational Revenue for Public Postsecondary Institutions .............28 AFFORDABILITY 14 Public Doctoral Universities: State and Local Percentage of Family Income Needed to Pay for Full-Time Appropriations Relative to Educational Expenditures per Enrollment at Public Two- and Four-Year Institutions: FTE Student during 2014-15 ...............................29 Families with Median Incomes ............................15 Public Master’s Universities: State and Local Percentage of Family Income Needed to Pay for Full-Time Appropriations Relative to Educational Expenditures per Enrollment at Public Two- and Four-Year Institutions: FTE Student during 2014-15 ...............................30 Families in the Lowest Income Quintile ....................16 Public Associate’s Colleges: State and Local Appropriations Relative to Educational Expenditures per FTE Student COMPLETION 17 during 2014-15...........................................31 State Need-Based Grant Aid per FTE Undergraduate Percentage of First-Time, Full-Time, Baccalaureate-Seeking Student and Percent of Aid Defined as Need-Based.........32 Students who Graduated within Four Years at Public Four- Year Institutions .........................................18 Percentage of First-Time, Full-Time, Baccalaureate-Seeking Students who Graduated within Four Years at Private Not- for-Profit Four-Year Institutions ...........................18 Transfer-Adjusted Percentage of First-Time, Certificate/ Degree-Seeking Students in the Fall 2010 Cohort who Completed a Certificate or Degree within Six Years by Starting Institution: Full- and Part-Time Students...........19 2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI 3 4 2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI Increasing Educational Attainment in Missouri: An Imperative for Future Prosperity In the United States, approximately 65 percent of all revenue. If the current rate of degree production remains jobs in 2020 will require some level of postsecondary constant, state revenue in 2025 is projected to be nearly education, and the demand will reach 66 percent in $55 million less than it is today. Conversely, projections Missouri.1 The projected demand for postsecondary suggest that if the attainment goal were fulfilled by 2025, education in Missouri spans all occupational categories, over $1 billion in additional revenue would be generated including managerial, STEM, social sciences, community through income tax, sales tax, property tax, Medicaid service, education, healthcare, and “blue collar” savings, and corrections savings.5 Moreover, policies industries (see Figure 1).2 However, the projected that effectively raise levels of educational attainment demand in Missouri exceeds the current supply of will yield important civic and health benefits, including college-educated adults. Figure 2 indicates that 62 higher rates of voting, volunteerism, and healthful percent of adults in Missouri have completed some prenatal care.6 For example, health risk factors such as college coursework or a postsecondary credential. smoking are less prevalent among individuals who have a bachelor’s degree or higher.7 Residents of Missouri In order to meet future workforce demands, many states also benefit from higher education in terms of higher have set ambitious goals to improve the educational earnings and lower unemployment, compared to those attainment of their residents. Missouri aims to raise the with only a high school diploma.8 proportion of adults with a postsecondary certificate or degree to 60 percent by 2020.3 Figure 2 shows that This report seeks to inform public discourse on higher progress has been made towards raising educational education by providing key performance indicators attainment in Missouri, as the percentage of adults with relevant to the goal of improving educational attainment at least an associate degree increased from 25 percent in Missouri. Performance indicators are categorized in 1990 to 39 percent in 2016. (Data on postsecondary within six dimensions: Preparation, Participation, certificate attainment are currently limited, but some Affordability, Completion, Equity, and Finance. Most analyses indicate that accounting for educational indicators provide the MHEC regional average and U.S. certificates would increase the postsecondary average or population proportion as lower performance attainment rate by two to four percentage points.)4 benchmarks as well as the median of the top five states in the nation as an aspirational benchmark. The ability of policymakers to reach a “60 percent” attainment goal carries significant implications for state 2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI 5 Figure 1. Missouri Job Openings by Occupation and Education Level between 2010 and 2020 (in thousands) Figure 1. Missouri Job Openings by Occupation 300 and Education Level between 2010 and 2020 250 (in thousands) 200 Source: The Georgetown University Center on Education and the 150 Workforce. (2013). Recovery: Job growth and education 100 requirements through 2020. 50 0 Managerial Healthcare Community Food and Sales and and Social Professional Healthcare STEM Services and Education Personal Office Blue Collar Professional Sciences and Support Arts Services Support Office Technical Graduate Degree 32 8 2 10 31 17 1 2 12 2 Bachelor's Degree 54 16 2 22 19 15 1 15 62 12 Associate's Degree 12 4 0 3 2 12 3 11 22 15 Some College 28 7 0 5 4 10 12 47 90 50 No College Required 23
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