Increasing Educational Attainment in Missouri: an Imperative for Future Prosperity

20162017 ANNUAL HigherREPORT20162017 Education to the Member States inANNUAL Focus 2017 Selected Performance Indicators REPORT to the Member States MHEC Est. 1991

ABOUT THE MIDWESTERN HIGHER COMPACT LEADERSHIP, 2017-2018 EDUCATION COMPACT Chair: Mr. Tim Flakoll, North Dakota Governor’s Designee; The Midwestern Higher Education Compact is a nonprofit Vice Chair: Dr. Ken Sauer, Indiana Commission for Higher regional organization, established by compact statute, to Education; Treasurer: Ms. Olivia Madison, Iowa State assist Midwestern states in advancing higher education University (retired). Immediate Past Chair: Mr. Richard through interstate cooperation and resource sharing. Short, Kansas Governor’s Designee Member states are Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, President: Mr. Larry Isaak Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. Collectively, the © Copyright 2017 Midwestern Higher Education Compact. Compact creates solutions that build higher education’s All rights reserved. capacity to better serve individuals, institutions, and Correspondence concerning this report should be sent to states by leveraging the region’s expertise, ideas, and Aaron Horn, Director for Policy Research, experiences through multi-state convening, programs, [email protected]. contracts, and research. Updates to this report may be found at: http://www.mhec.org/research.

2 2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI Selected Performance Indicators

INCREASING EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT 5 Transfer-Adjusted Percentage of First-Time, Certificate/ Degree-Seeking Students in the Fall 2010 Cohort who Job Openings by Occupation and Education Level between Completed a Certificate or Degree within Six Years by 2010 and 2020 (in thousands) ...... 6 Starting Institution: Full-Time Students ...... 20 Percentage of Adults Aged 25-64 who have Attained a Institutional Effectiveness in Promoting Timely Degree Postsecondary Credential ...... 6 Completion ...... 21

PREPARATION 7 EQUITY 22 Percentage of Children Ages 3 to 4 Enrolled in Preschool . . 8 Percentage of Low- and Higher-Income Students in Grade 8 Scoring At or Above Proficiency on the National Percentage of Students in Grade 8 Scoring At or Above Assessment of Educational Progress in Math, Reading, and Proficiency on the National Assessment of Educational Science ...... 23 Progress in Math, Reading, and Science ...... 9 Public High School Graduation Rates among Low- and Public High School Graduation Rate Over Time ...... 9 Higher-Income Students ...... 24 Percentage of High School Graduates Taking the ACT Percentage of Dependent 18- to 24-Year-Old Residents during 2013 and 2016 ...... 9 Who Have Enrolled in or Have Completed Some College by Percentage of ACT-Tested High School Graduates Family Income ...... 24 Who Met or Exceeded College Readiness Benchmark Percentage of First-Time, Full-Time, Baccalaureate-Seeking Scores ...... 10 Students in the Fall 2007 Cohort who Graduated within Six Years at Public Four-Year Institutions: Pell Grant Recipients vs. Non-Pell Recipients ...... 25 PARTICIPATION 11 Percentage of High School Graduates Going Directly to College ...... 12 FINANCE 26 Percentage of Persons Aged 18-24 who are Currently State and Local Educational Appropriations for Higher Enrolled or Have Completed Some College ...... 12 Education per FTE Student ...... 27 Percentage of Persons Aged 25-49 without an State Fiscal Support for Higher Education per $1,000 of Associate Degree or Higher who are Currently Enrolled in Personal Income ...... 27 College ...... 13 State and Local Educational Appropriations and Net Tuition Revenue as a Percentage of Total Educational Revenue for Public Postsecondary Institutions ...... 28 AFFORDABILITY 14 Public Doctoral Universities: State and Local Percentage of Family Income Needed to Pay for Full-Time Appropriations Relative to Educational Expenditures per Enrollment at Public Two- and Four-Year Institutions: FTE Student during 2014-15 ...... 29 Families with Median Incomes ...... 15 Public Master’s Universities: State and Local Percentage of Family Income Needed to Pay for Full-Time Appropriations Relative to Educational Expenditures per Enrollment at Public Two- and Four-Year Institutions: FTE Student during 2014-15 ...... 30 Families in the Lowest Income Quintile ...... 16 Public Associate’s Colleges: State and Local Appropriations Relative to Educational Expenditures per FTE Student COMPLETION 17 during 2014-15 ...... 31 State Need-Based Grant Aid per FTE Undergraduate Percentage of First-Time, Full-Time, Baccalaureate-Seeking Student and Percent of Aid Defined as Need-Based . . . . 32 Students who Graduated within Four Years at Public Four- Year Institutions ...... 18 Percentage of First-Time, Full-Time, Baccalaureate-Seeking Students who Graduated within Four Years at Private Not- for-Profit Four-Year Institutions ...... 18 Transfer-Adjusted Percentage of First-Time, Certificate/ Degree-Seeking Students in the Fall 2010 Cohort who Completed a Certificate or Degree within Six Years by Starting Institution: Full- and Part-Time Students . . . . . 19

2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI 3 4 2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI Increasing Educational Attainment in Missouri: An Imperative for Future Prosperity

In the United States, approximately 65 percent of all revenue. If the current rate of degree production remains jobs in 2020 will require some level of postsecondary constant, state revenue in 2025 is projected to be nearly education, and the demand will reach 66 percent in $55 million less than it is today. Conversely, projections Missouri.1 The projected demand for postsecondary suggest that if the attainment goal were fulfilled by 2025, education in Missouri spans all occupational categories, over $1 billion in additional revenue would be generated including managerial, STEM, social sciences, community through income tax, sales tax, property tax, Medicaid service, education, healthcare, and “blue collar” savings, and corrections savings.5 Moreover, policies industries (see Figure 1).2 However, the projected that effectively raise levels of educational attainment demand in Missouri exceeds the current supply of will yield important civic and health benefits, including college-educated adults. Figure 2 indicates that 62 higher rates of voting, volunteerism, and healthful percent of adults in Missouri have completed some prenatal care.6 For example, health risk factors such as college coursework or a postsecondary credential. smoking are less prevalent among individuals who have a bachelor’s degree or higher.7 Residents of Missouri In order to meet future workforce demands, many states also benefit from higher education in terms of higher have set ambitious goals to improve the educational earnings and lower unemployment, compared to those attainment of their residents. Missouri aims to raise the with only a high school diploma.8 proportion of adults with a postsecondary certificate or degree to 60 percent by 2020.3 Figure 2 shows that This report seeks to inform public discourse on higher progress has been made towards raising educational education by providing key performance indicators attainment in Missouri, as the percentage of adults with relevant to the goal of improving educational attainment at least an associate degree increased from 25 percent in Missouri. Performance indicators are categorized in 1990 to 39 percent in 2016. (Data on postsecondary within six dimensions: Preparation, Participation, certificate attainment are currently limited, but some Affordability, Completion, Equity, and Finance. Most analyses indicate that accounting for educational indicators provide the MHEC regional average and U.S. certificates would increase the postsecondary average or population proportion as lower performance attainment rate by two to four percentage points.)4 benchmarks as well as the median of the top five states in the nation as an aspirational benchmark. The ability of policymakers to reach a “60 percent” attainment goal carries significant implications for state

2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI 5 Figure 1. Missouri Job Openings by Occupation and Education Level between 2010 and 2020 (in thousands)

Figure 1. Missouri Job Openings by Occupation 300 and Education Level between 2010 and 2020 250 (in thousands) 200 Source: The Georgetown University Center on Education and the 150 Workforce. (2013). Recovery: Job growth and education 100 requirements through 2020.

0 Managerial Healthcare Community Food and Sales and and Social Professional Healthcare STEM Services and Education Personal Office Blue Collar Professional Sciences and Support Arts Services Support Office Technical Graduate Degree 32 8 2 10 31 17 1 2 12 2 Bachelor's Degree 54 16 2 22 19 15 1 15 62 12 Associate's Degree 12 4 0 3 2 12 3 11 22 15 Some College 28 7 0 5 4 10 12 47 90 50 No College Required 23 3 0 3 2 6 13 98 90 129

Figure 2. Percentage of Adults Aged 25-64 in Missouri who have Attained a Postsecondary Credential

Figure 2. Percentage of Adults Aged 25-64 Some College Only Associate Only Bachelor's and Above in Missouri who have 50 Attained a Postsecondary Credential 40 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, 2000 Census, 2010 ACS Three-Year Estimates, 2016 ACS 30 30 One-Year Estimates. 28 24 24 2 24 Higher23Education in Focus 21 20 20

9 10 8 5 6

0 1990 2000 2010 2016

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, 2000 Census, 2010 ACS Three-Year Estimates, 2016 ACS One-Year Estimates. 6 2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI

Higher Education in Focus 3 Preparation20162017

ABOUT THESE METRICS

Academic preparation constitutes a key leverage point for improving postsecondary outcomes. The extent to which studentsANNUAL are academically prepared for college predicts bachelor’s degree completion beyond the effects of race and ethnicity, socioeconomic status, institutional selectivity, attendance patterns, and academic performance during college.9 The cumulative nature of both academic competencies and deficits necessitates an assessment of academic preparedness that spans pre-K education, middle school, and high school. PreschoolREPORT enrollment. An early indicator of academic High school completion. Graduation rates are based on preparation is defined by the percentage of children the number of students who graduate in four years with ages 3 to to4 enrolled the in preschool. Member Early childhood aStates regular high school diploma.12 The completion of high education provides a critical foundation for successfully school or its equivalent is typically required for college managing subsequent academic challenges. Relative to admission. children in control groups, participants in high-quality, College readiness. The proportion of students taking educationally-focused programs have exhibited greater the ACT who meet college readiness benchmarks long-term gains in IQ, lower rates of grade repetition and provides one measure of the academic preparation of special education placements, and higher rates of high college-bound students. Benchmark scores in English, school graduation and college attendance.10 Moreover, mathematics, reading, and science delineate a 75 cost-benefit analyses of such programs have shown percent likelihood of attaining at least a “C” in first-year that benefits are 2.5 to 16.2 times greater than costs college-level courses.13 when accounting for such factors as adult earnings and cost savings in K-12 education, corrections, welfare, and healthcare.

Academic proficiency of th8 grade students. The percentage of students in grade 8 scoring at or above proficiency on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) provides a measure of whether students enter high school with foundational skills and knowledge in such areas as math, reading, and science. In fact, 8th grade academic achievement has been found to be a highly significant predictor of college readiness among 12th grade students.11

2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI 7 Figure 3. Percentage of Children Ages 3 to 4 Enrolled in Preschool

Figure 3. Percentage of Children Ages 3 to 4 Missouri MHEC Average U.S. Top 5 States Median Enrolled in Preschool 65% Preschool enrollment. Figure 3 60% 60% shows that the rate of enrollment 59% in preschool among children ages 3 to 4 has decreased slightly 55% over time and remains below the regional and national levels. 50% 48% 48% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. (2009- 47% 11, 2014-16). American Community 45% 45% Survey One-Year. Top 5 States, 2016: 45% 44% CT, IL, MA, NJ, NY. 40%

35%

30% 2009-2011 2014-2016

Figure 4. Percentage of Students in Grade 8 Scoring At or Above Proficiency on the National Assessment of Educational Progress in Math, Reading, and Science

Figure 4. Percentage of Missouri MHEC Average U.S. Students in Grade 8 60 Scoring At or Above Source: U.S. Census Bureau. (2009-11, 2014-16). American Community Survey One-Year. Top 5 States, 2016: CT, IL, Proficiency on the National MA, NJ, NY. Assessment of Educational 50 Progress in Math, Reading,

and Science 40 40 38 Academic proficiency of 8th 36 36 36 36 36 34 34 34 grade students. As indicated in 32 33 31 31 31 th 30 30 Figure 4, less than half of 8 grade 30 students scored at or above the 26 proficiency level in math, reading, or science. However, performance 6 20 Higher Education in Focus meets or exceeds the regional and national benchmarks in

reading and science. 10

Source: National Center for Education Statistics. (2005, 2009, 2015). National assessment of 0 educational progress. State-level 2005 2015 2005 2015 2009 2015 estimates for NAEP Science were Math Reading Science not available for 2005-2008.

8 Source: National2017 Higher Center for Education Statistics. in Focus: (2005, 2009, MISSOURI 2015). National assessment of educational progress. State-level estimates for NAEP Science were not available for 2005-2008.

Higher Education in Focus 7 Figure 5. Public High School Graduation Rate Over Time

Figure 5. Public High School Graduation Rate Missouri MHEC Average U.S. Top 5 States Median Over Time 100% High school completion. Figure 5 shows that the percentage of 9th grade students who 95% graduate from high school four years later has increased since 90% 2010-11, and the current rate is 89% 88% above the regional and national 87% 86% benchmarks. 85% 83% 83% Source: U.S. Department of 81% Education. (2011, 2015). ED Data 80% 79% Express, ACGR. Top 5 States 2014-15: AL, IA, NE, NJ, TX. 75%

70% 2010-11 2014-15

Figure 6a. Percentage of High School Graduates Taking the ACT during 2013 and 2016

Figure 6a. Percentage of High School Graduates 2013 2016 100100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Taking the ACT during 2013 98 100Source: U.S. Department of Education. (2011, 2015). ED Data Express, ACGR. Top 5 States 2014-15: AL, IA, NE, NJ, TX. and 2016 90 88 College readiness. Figure 6a 84 78 indicates that 100 percent of high 80 76 75 74 74 74 73 school graduates in Missouri took 71 72 68 14 70 66 the ACT. 64

60 Source: ACT. (2016). The Condition 54 of College & Career Readiness, 50 2016. 41 40 38

8 30 Higher Education in Focus

0 IL MI MN MO WI ND NE SD KS OH IA IN Nation

2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI 9 Source: ACT. (2016). The Condition of College & Career Readiness, 2016.

Higher Education in Focus 9 FigureFigu 6b.re Percentage 6b. Percentage of ACT-Testedof AC HighT-Tested School High GraduatesSchool WhoGraduates Met or ExceededWho Met Collegeor Exceeded Readiness BenchmarkCollege ScoresReadinessBenchmarkScores College readiness. Figure 6b shows the percentage of ACT-tested high school graduates whose performance met or exceeded benchmark scores in English, mathematics, reading, and science. Missouri’s performance was below the average levels of states that require all high school students to take the ACT.

English Reading Missouri MHEC Average Missouri MHEC Average 100% Participation Average Top 5 States Median 100% Participation Average Top 5 States Median

70 65 59 60 53 47 40 42

2016 2016

Mathematics Science Missouri MHEC Average Missouri MHEC Average 100% Participation Average Top 5 States Median 100% Participation Average Top 5 States Median

48 44 45 40 40 35 32 36

2016 2016

Source: ACT. (2016). The Condition of College & Career Readiness, 2016. The 100% participation average reflects performance in MHEC states that require all students to take the ACT. The median of the top 5 states includes only states that have a minimum of 65% of students taking the ACT. Top states (includes ties): 2016 English: IA, KS, NE, OH, SD; 2016 Reading: IA, KS, NE, OH, SD; 2016 Math: IA, KS, MN, OH, SD; 2016 Science: IA, KS, MN, NE, OH, SD.

10 Higher Education in Focus Participation20162017

ABOUT THESE METRICS

A critical challenge for policymakers is to ensure that residents can access a college education compatible with their aspirationsANNUAL and abilities. Postsecondary participation rates provide a general indication of whether opportunities for higher education need to be improved for both younger and older adults.

Direct enrollment. The direct enrollment rate is Traditional age enrollment. Participation among defined as the percentage of high school graduates traditional-age students is defined as the percentage who enroll in a postsecondary institution during the of all 18- to 24-year-old adults in the state who are REPORT15 fall immediately following high school completion. currently enrolled in college or have completed some Postponed enrollment may lead to future obstacles to college. degree completion, to the such as the Member decay of academic skills States Older adult enrollment. Participation among older adults and knowledge as well as the adoption of competing is defined as the rate of enrollment among adults aged roles and obligations (e.g., work, family). Research has 25 to 49 who have not yet earned an associate degree. indicated that the odds of obtaining a bachelor’s degree decrease by 5 percent for every month that a student delays postsecondary enrollment after graduating from high school. 16

2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI 11 Figure 7. Percentage of High School Graduates Going Directly to College

Figure 7. Percentage of High School Graduates Missouri MHEC Average U.S. Median, Top 5 States Going Directly to College 85 Direct enrollment. As indicated 80 in Figure 7, approximately 66 percent of high school graduates 74 75 76 in Missouri directly enroll in college, which meets the regional 70 benchmark. 68 67 66 Source: Postsecondary Education 65 63 Opportunity. (2012). College Continuation Rates for Recent High 60 62 School Graduates. NCES IPEDS. 58 60 (2015). Fall Enrollment File. U.S. 55 56 Department of Education. (2015). ED Data Express, ACGR. NCES. 52 (2013). Private School Universe 50 Survey. WICHE. (2015). Knocking at the College Door. Top 5 States, 2014: 45 CT, MA, MN, MS, NY. 2004 2008 2014

Figure 8. Percentage of Persons Aged 18-24 who are Currently Enrolled or Have Completed Some College

Figure 8. Percentage of Persons Aged 18-24 who are Currently Enrolled or Missouri MHEC Average U.S. Top 5 States Median Have Completed Some 100 Source: Postsecondary Education Opportunity. (2012). College Continuation Rates for Recent High School College Graduates.90 NCES IPEDS. (2015). Fall Enrollment File. U.S. Department of Education. (2015). ED Data Express, ACGR. NCES. (2013). Private School Universe Survey. WICHE. (2015). Knocking at the College Door. Top 5 States, Traditional age enrollment. 2014: CT, MA, MN, MS, NY. 80 75 Figure 8 shows that 66 percent 72 66 66 69 68 of adults aged 18 to 24 have 70 61 62 enrolled in college, which is 60 below the regional and national benchmarks. 50 40 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. (2006, 2016). American Community Survey 30 One-Year Public Use Microdata Sample. Top 5 States, 2016 20 (includes ties): CT, MA, MN, NH, NJ, 10 NY, RI. 0 2006 2016 12 Higher Education in Focus

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. (2006, 2016). American Community Survey One-Year Public Use Microdata Sample. Top 5 States, 2016 (includes ties): CT, MA, MN, NH, NJ, NY, RI. 12 . 2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI

Higher Education in Focus 1 3 Figure 9. Percentage of Persons Aged 25-49 without an Associate Degree or Higher who are Currently Enrolled in College

Figure 9. Percentage of Persons Aged 25-49 Missouri MHEC Average U.S. Top 5 States Median without an Associate 10 Degree or Higher who are Currently Enrolled in 9 College 8

Older adult enrollment. Figure 9 7 7 shows that Missouri meets the 6 6 regional and national benchmarks 5 5 5 in the proportion of older 5 5 5 residents enrolled in college. 4 4 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. (2006, 2016). American Community Survey 3 One-Year Public Use Microdata Sample. Top 5 States, 2016 2 (includes ties): CA, HI, NM, RI, UT. 1

0 2006 2016

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. (2006, 2016). American Community Survey One-Year Public Use Microdata Sample. Top 5 States, 2016 (includes ties): CA, HI, NM, RI, UT.

14 Higher Education in Focus

2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI 13 Affordability20162017

ABOUT THESE METRICS

Over the past few decades, college tuition and fees have increased at more than four times the rate of consumer prices,ANNUAL partly in response to reductions in state and local funding. Such precipitous increases in tuition have occurred while the incomes of many low- and middle-class families have stagnated or declined. This is potentially problematic since a higher net price of college has been associated with lower rates of college enrollment and completion, particularly among students from low-income families.17 AbilityREPORT to pay. College affordability is measured by the institutional, local, state, and federal grant aid. In order percentage of family income needed to pay the net to assess the degree of affordability for students of price of to full-time the enrollment Memberat public two- and four- Statesdifferent income levels, this indicator is presented for year institutions. The average net price is calculated as families with median income and families in the lowest the total cost of attendance (tuition and fees, books, income quintile. supplies, and room and board) minus the average

14 2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI FigureFigure 10a.10 Percentagea. Percentage of Familyof Family IncomeIncome Needed Neededto Pay for to Full-TimePay for EnrollmentFull-Time at Enrollment Public Two- atand Four-Year 20162017 Institutions:Public Two -Familiesand Fou withr-Year Median Institutions: Incomes Families with Median Incomes Ability to pay: Median income. Figure 10a shows that the net price of college as a percentage of median family income recently decreased for public two- and four-year enrollment.

ANNUAL Missouri MHEC Average U.S. Average Top 5 States Median 60

REPORT 50

to the Member States 40

30 24 22 22 22 21 22 22 21 22 20 16 16 16 17 17 14 15 14 15 14 14 13 10 11 11 10

0 2008-09 2013-14 2014-15 2008-09 2013-14 2014-15 Public Two-Year Institutions Public Four-Year Institutions

Source: NCES IPEDS. (2009, 2014, 2015). Net price. U.S. Census Bureau. (2009, 2014, 2015). American Community Survey One-Year Public Use Microdata Sample. Top 5 States Public 2-Year, 2014-15 (includes ties): CT, DE, IL, MD, MI, MS, NE, NJ, UT, VA, WY; Top 5 States Public 4-Year, 2014-15 (includes ties): AK, HI, ND, UT, WA, WY.

NCES IPEDS. (2009, 2014, 2015). Net price. U.S. Census Bureau. (2009, 2014, 2015). American Community Survey One-Year Public Use Microdata Sample. Top 5 States Public 2-Year, 2014-15 (includes ties): CT, DE, IL, MD, MI, MS, NE, NJ, UT, VA, WY; Top 5 States Public 4-Year, 2014-15 (includes ties): AK, HI, ND, UT, WA, WY.

2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI 15

16 Higher Education in Focus Figure 10b. Percentage of Family Income Needed to Pay for Full-Time Enrollment at Public Two- and Four-Year Institutions: Families in the Lowest Income Quintile Figure 10b. Percentage of Family Income Needed to Pay for Full-Time Enrollment at AbilityPublic to pay:Two Low- andincome.Fou A comparisonr-Year Institutions: of Figures 10a and Families 10b indicatesin thethat collegeLowest affordabilityIncome in MissouriQuintile is highly contingent on family income. Families with median incomes in Missouri would need to allocate 21 percent of their incomes to pay for enrollment at a four-year college. In contrast, four-year college attendance for low-income students requires 49 percent of family income. However, college affordability for low- income students has recently improved.

Missouri MHEC Average U.S. Average Top 5 States Median 60 58 57 52 50 49 50 50 48 46 45 44

40 37 36 37 35 34 34 33 33 32 32 30 25 23 21 20 17

0 2008-09 2013-14 2014-15 2008-09 2013-14 2014-15 Public Two-Year Institutions Public Four-Year Institutions

Source: NCES IPEDS. (2009, 2014, 2015). Net price. U.S. Census Bureau. (2009, 2014, 2015). American Community Survey One-Year Public Use Microdata Sample. Top 5 States Public 2-Year, 2014-15 (includes ties): CT, HI, MI, UT, WA, WY; Top 5 States Public 4-Year, 2014-15: AK, HI, IN, WA, WY.

NCES IPEDS. (2009, 2014, 2015). Net price. U.S. Census Bureau. (2009, 2014, 2015). American Community Survey One-Year Public Use Microdata Sample. Top 5 States Public 2-Year, 2014-15 (includes ties): CT, HI, UT, WA, WY; Top 5 States Public 4-Year, 2014-15: AK, HI, IN, WA, WY.

16 2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI

Higher Education in Focus 1 Completion20162017

ABOUT THESE METRICS

While many states have made significant gains in postsecondary enrollment, rates of degree completion across the nation remainANNUAL below expected levels. The failure to complete a degree program has negative consequences for both students and states. Since employers are more likely to demand an educational credential than a specific number of postsecondary credits, a premature departure from college can severely curb one’s prospects for future employment and earnings. For example, individuals who have attained a bachelor’s degree earn 26 percent more than those who have completed 16 years of schooling without graduating from college.18 In addition, when students fail to graduate, the state failsREPORT to optimize its investment in higher education through lost institutional appropriations and student grant aid as well to as lost therevenue from Member state income tax.19 States Traditional on-time graduation. The traditional on-time the performance of particular postsecondary institutions graduation rate represents completion of a bachelor’s but rather constitute an outcome of the totality of degree within four years at four-year institutions. It performances across the PK-16 educational system as accounts for first-time, full-time, baccalaureate-seeking well as the broader system of public policies that shape students who enter during the fall and graduate from postsecondary opportunities. In order to better assess their first institution. the value that institutions add to completion outcomes, an effectiveness indicator is defined as the difference Transfer-adjusted completion. Transfer-adjusted between the actual graduation rate and the rate that completion rates are defined by the proportion of first- would be expected given the institution’s structural, time, certificate/degree-seeking students in the fall 2010 demographic, financial, and contextual characteristics. cohort who completed a certificate or degree within six Scores that approximate or exceed zero indicate that, on years, while accounting for students who enroll part- average, institutional conditions are conducive to timely or full-time and graduate from their first institution or completion.20 elsewhere.

Institutional effectiveness. A major shortcoming of raw completion rates is that they do not necessarily gauge

2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI 17 Figure 11a. Percentage of First-Time, Full-Time, Baccalaureate-Seeking Students who Graduated within Four Years at Public Four-Year Institutions

Figure 11a. Percentage of First-Time, Full-Time, Missouri MHEC Average U.S. Top 5 States Median Baccalaureate-Seeking Students who Graduated 90 within Four Years at Public 80 Four-Year Institutions

Traditional on-time graduation. 70 Figure 11a shows that 32 percent of first-time, full-time, 60 baccalaureate-seeking students graduated within four years at 53 50 public institutions in Missouri in 2015, which meets the regional 42 benchmark. 40 35 32 Source: NCES IPEDS. (2005, 2015). 30 28 32 Graduation Rate. Top 5 States 26 (includes ties), 2015: DE, CT, MD, NH, 26 VA, VT. 20 2005 2015

Figure 11b. Percentage of First-Time, Full-Time, Baccalaureate-Seeking Students who Graduated within Four Years at Private Not-for-Profit Four-Year Institutions

Figure 11b. Percentage of First-Time, Full-Time, Missouri MHEC Average U.S. Top 5 States Median Baccalaureate-Seeking Sour90ce: NCES IPEDS. (2005, 2015). Graduation Rate. Top 5 States (includes ties), 2015: DE, CT, MD, NH, VA, VT. Students who Graduated

within Four Years at 80 Private Not-for-Profit Four-

Year Institutions 70 Traditional on-time graduation. 66 65 Figure 11b demonstrates that 60 the four-year graduation rate of 53 private not-for-profit colleges 50 50 48 and universities in Missouri (47 45 47 percent) was below the regional20 45 Higher Education in Focus and national levels. 40

Source: NCES IPEDS. (2005, 2015). 30 Graduation Rate. Top 5 States, 2015: CT, MA, MD, MN, RI 20 2005 2015

Source: NCES IPEDS. (2005, 2015). Graduation Rate. Top 5 States, 2015: CT, MA, MD, MN, RI. 18 2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI

Higher Education in Focus 2 1 Figure 12a. Transfer-Adjusted Percentage of First-Time, Certificate/Degree-Seeking Students in the Fall 2010 Cohort whoFigure Completed 12a. aTransfer Certificate-Adjusted or DegreePercentage within Six Yearsof First by Starting-Time, Institution:Certificate/Degree Full- and Part-Time- Students Transfer-adjustedSeeking Students completion: Allin students.the Fall According2010 toCohort Figure 12a,who 40 percentCompleted of all students a Certificate who started at or a public Degree two-year institution in Missouriwithin completedSix Years a certificate by Startingor degree withinInstitution: six years, whichFull is- slightlyandPart above- Timethe national Students benchmark. The transfer-adjusted completion rate for students at public four-year institutions was 63 percent, which is also slightly above the national benchmark. The transfer-adjusted completion rate for students at private not-for-profit institutions (64 percent) is below the regional and national benchmarks.

Missouri MHEC Average U.S. Top 5 States Median 100

90 85

80 77 74 72 70 68 63 62 64 60 55

50 47 40 39 40

0 2-Year Public 4-Year Public 4-Year Private Not-for-Profit

Source: Shapiro, D., Dundar, A., Wakhungu, P., Yuan, X., Nathan, A & Hwang, Y., A. (2017, March). Completing College: A State-Level View of Student Attainment Rates (Signature Report No. 12a). Herndon, VA: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. Top 5 States, 2-Year Public: FL, IA, MN, ND, SD; Top 5 States 4-Year Public (includes ties): CT, IA, MN, NH, NJ, VA; Top 5 States, 4-Year Private Not-for-Profit (includes ties): CT, MA, MD, PA, RI, WA.

Source: Shapiro, D., Dundar, A., Wakhungu, P., Yuan, X., Nathan, A & Hwang, Y., A. (2017, March). Completing

College: A State-Level View of Student Attainment Rates (Signature Report No. 12a). Herndon, VA: National

Student Clearinghouse Research Center. Top 5 States, 2-Year Public: FL, IA, MN, ND, SD; Top 5 States 4-Year Public (includes ties): CT, IA, MN, NH, NJ, VA; Top 5 States, 4-Year Private Not-for-Profit (includes ties): CT, MA, MD, PA, RI, WA.

2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI 19

22 Higher Education in Focus FigureFigure 12b.12 Transfer-Adjustedb. Transfer-Adjusted PercentagePercentage of First-Time,of First Certificate/Degree-Seeking-Time, Certificate/Degree- Students in the Fall 2010 Cohort whoSeeking CompletedStudents a Certificatein the Fallor Degree2010 withinCohort Six whoYears Completedby Starting Institution:a Certificate Full-Time or Degree Students Transfer-adjustedwithin Six Years completion: by Starting Full-time students.Institution: A much Fulllarger-Time percentage Students of students complete a certificate or degree within six years after accounting for enrollment intensity. A comparison of Figures 12a and 12b demonstrates that completion rates are highest among students who enroll full-time.

Missouri MHEC Average U.S. Top 5 States Median 100 93 88 90 86 83 85 82 81 82 80 69 70 60 57 60 55

0 2-Year Public 4-Year Public 4-Year Private Not-for-Profit

Source: Shapiro, D., Dundar, A., Wakhungu, P., Yuan, X., Nathan, A & Hwang, Y., A. (2017, March). Completing College: A State-Level View of Student Attainment Rates (Signature Report No. 12a). Herndon, VA: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. Top 5 States, 2-Year Public (includes ties): FL, IL, MN, ND, SD, VA; Top 5 States, 4-Year Public (includes ties): CT, IA, MD, MN, NH, NJ, SC, VA; Top 5 States, 4-Year Private Not-for-Profit: CT, MD, OR, RI, WA.

Source: Shapiro, D., Dundar, A., Wakhungu, P., Yuan, X., Nathan, A & Hwang, Y., A. (2017,

March). Completing College: A State-Level View of Student Attainment Rates (Signature Report No. 12a). Herndon, VA: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. Top 5 States, 2-Year Public (includes ties): FL, IL, MN, ND, SD, VA; Top 5 States, 4-Year Public (includes ties): CT, IA, MD, MN, NH, NJ, SC, VA; Top 5 States, 4-Year Private Not-for-Profit: CT, MD, OR, RI, WA.

20 2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI

Higher Education in Focus 2 3 Figure 13. Institutional Effectiveness in Promoting Timely Degree Completion

Figure 13. Institutional Effectiveness in Promoting Missouri MHEC Average U.S. Average Top 5 States Median Timely Degree Completion 1.00 Institutional effectiveness. 0.80 0.61 Figure 13 indicates that the 0.60 0.53 institutional effectiveness of public 2-year institutions in 0.40 Missouri is below the regional 0.20 and national benchmarks. Public 0.07 4-year institutions are moderately 0.00 effective in promoting timely -0.03 -0.02 -0.07 degree completion, as graduation -0.20 -0.17 -0.15 rates were only slightly lower than expected. -0.40

Source: MHEC. (2015). The -0.60 Effectiveness and Efficiency of -0.80 Postsecondary Institutions in the United States: 2010-2012 -1.00 Baseline Results. Minneapolis, 2-Year Public 4-Year Public MN: Midwestern Higher Education Compact. Top 5 States, 2-year institutions: CA, FL, HI, ND, SD. Top 5 States, 4-Year Institutions: MI, NJ, VA, VT, WA.

Source: MHEC. (2015). The Effectiveness and Efficiency of Postsecondary Institutions in the United States: 2010-2012 Baseline Results. Minneapolis, MN: Midwestern Higher Education Compact. Top 5 States, 2-year institutions: CA, FL, HI, ND, SD. Top 5 States, 4-year institutions: MI, NJ, VA, VT, WA.

24 Higher Education in Focus

2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI 21 Equity20162017

ABOUT THESE METRICS

Equity in postsecondary education is partly assessed by the extent to which academic preparedness, college enrollment,ANNUAL and completion are contingent on family income.21 Nationally, lower-income students constitute 51 percent of public PK-12 enrollment,22 but they have been historically underrepresented in higher education. Moreover, many states will need to improve the college preparation and participation of low-income students to significantly raise postsecondary attainment rates. 8th gradeREPORT achievement gap. The academic preparedness College enrollment gap. The postsecondary enrollment gap is measured by 8th grade proficiency levels in gap is gauged by comparing college enrollment rates math, reading,to andthe science onMember the National Assessment Statesamong dependent 18- to 24-year-old residents by family of Educational Progress (NAEP) among low-income income in Missouri.25 students who qualified for free- or reduced-price lunch College completion gap. The completion gap is and “higher”-income students who were not eligible to estimated by comparing six-year graduation rates among participate in the National School Lunch Program.23 Pell grant recipients and non-Pell recipients at public High school completion gap. Graduation rates are four-year institutions.26 The six-year graduation rate based on the number of students who graduate in accounts for first-time, full-time, bachelor’s degree- four years with a regular high school diploma.24 The seeking students who entered during the fall of 2007 and completion gap is measured by graduation rates among graduated from their first institution within six years. low-income students who qualified for free- or reduced- price lunch and “higher”-income students who were not eligible to participate in the National School Lunch Program.

22 2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI Figure 14. Percentage of Low- and Higher-Income Students in Grade 8 Scoring At or Above Proficiency on the 20162017 Figure 14. Percentage of Low- and Higher-Income Students in Grade 8 Scoring At or NationalAbove AssessmentProficiency ofon Educationalthe National ProgressAssessment in Math, Reading,of Educational and ScienceProgress in Math, 8th Reading,grade achievementand Sciencegap. Figure 14 shows that fewer than 30 percent of low-income students in Missouri scored at or above the proficiency level in math, reading, or science on the National Assessment of Educational Progress, which is well below the achievement levels of higher-income ANNUAL students. Missouri MHEC Average U.S. 70 REPORT 60 53 to the Member States 51 49 49 4848 50 4747 45 4545 41 41 39 4039 40 38 35

23 2221 22 20 19 20 20 18 18 19 18 20 17 16 15 13 13 14

0 2005 2015 2005 2015 2005 2015 2005 2015 2009 2015 2009 2015 Low-Income Higher-Income Low-Income Higher-Income Low-Income Higher-Income Math Reading Science

Source: National Center for Education Statistics. (2005, 2009, 2015). National assessment of educational progress. The NAEP in science was only administered in 2009, 2011, and 2015.

2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI 23

Higher Education in Focus 2 Figure 15. Public High School Graduation Rates among Low- and Higher-Income Students

Figure 15. Public High Missouri MHEC Average U.S. School Graduation Rates 100 among Low- and Higher- 93 91 90 Income Students 90 81 High school completion gap. 80 76 Figure 15 indicates that the high 75 75 72 70 school graduation rate of low- 70 income students has increased over time but was 12 percentage 60 points below the graduation rate 50 of higher-income students in 2014-15, compared to the regional 40 gap of 16 percentage points and the national gap of 14 percentage 30 points. 20 Source: U.S. Department of 10 Education. (2011, 2015). ED Data Express, ACGR. Data for higher- 0 income students were not Low-income students, 2010-11 Low-income students, 2014-15 Higher-income students, 2014-15 available in 2010-11.

Figure 16. Percentage of Dependent 18- to 24-Year-Old Residents Who Have Enrolled in or Have Completed Some College by Family Income

Figure 16. Percentage of Dependent 18- to Missouri U.S. 24-Year-Old Residents Who

Have Enrolled in or Have Source: U.S. Department of Education. (2011, 2015). ED Data Express, ACGR. 80 Completed Some College 75 by Family Income 63 63 College enrollment gap. According to Figure 16, the rate of college enrollment among 44 low-income 18 to 24 year olds 41 in Missouri (41%, MoE ±16%) is considerably lower than the enrollment rate for 18 to 24 year28 Higher Education in Focus olds from high-income families (75%, MoE ±5%).

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. (2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015). Current Population Survey. Five-year estimates. Low Income Middle Income High Income

24 2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2011-2015 Current Population Survey. Five-year estimates.

Higher Education in Focus 2 9 Figure 17. Percentage of First-Time, Full-Time, Baccalaureate-Seeking Students in the Fall 2007 Cohort who Graduated within Six Years at Public Four-Year Institutions: Pell Grant Recipients vs. Non-Pell Recipients

Figure 17. Percentage of First-Time, Full-Time, Missouri MHEC Average U.S. Average Baccalaureate-Seeking 70 Students in the Fall 2007 60 61 62 Cohort who Graduated 60 48 within Six Years at Public 50 45 Four-Year Institutions: Pell 42 Grant Recipients vs. Non- 40 Pell Recipients 30 College completion gap. Similarly, the graduation rate of 20 low-income students (i.e., Pell 10 grant recipients) lags behind the graduation rate of higher-income 0 students at public four-year Pell Recipient Non-Pell Recipient institutions. Moreover, the graduation rate of low-income students in Missouri is below the regional and national benchmarks Percent of undergraduate students enrolled in 2007 who received a Pell grant during 2007-08 (see Figure 17). IL IN IA KS MI MN MO NE ND OH SD WI Source: The Education Trust. (2015). 37% 30% 22% 29% 33% 24% 32% 28% 22% 33% 28% 28% The Pell Partnership: Ensuring a Shared Responsibility for Low- Income Student Success.

Percent of undergraduate students enrolled in 2007 who received a Pell grant during 2007-08

Source: The Education Trust. (2015). The Pell Partnership: Ensuring a Shared Responsibility for Low-Income Student Success.

30 Higher Education in Focus

2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI 25 Finance20162017

ABOUT THESE METRICS

Substantial financial investments are required to create and sustain a PK-16 educational system that meets state needsANNUAL for economic and social development. States allocated 13 percent of their budgets to higher education in 2016,27 including general operating expenses (78 percent); research, agricultural extension, and medical education (11 percent); and student financial aid (10 percent).28 Various factors influence funding for education within any particular state, including the tax base and structure, enrollment, and state expenditures for other public services. Moreover, states differ in the strategies used to ensure that postsecondary education remains affordable. For instance, some concentrateREPORT funds into direct institutional appropriations, while others may focus more on need-based student aid. Funding to commitment. the Two indicatorsMember portray the Statesin relation to education and related expenditures, which state’s overall commitment to funding higher education: reflect the total amount spent on instruction, student state and local educational appropriations for higher services, and academic support. State appropriations education per FTE student 29 and state fiscal support for may influence the effectiveness and competitiveness of higher education per $1,000 of personal income.30 institutions as well as tuition rates.31

State and student cost share. The relative share of the Need-based aid. State funding for grant aid based on cost of higher education is represented by comparing financial need is measured by (a) the amount of need- educational appropriations and net tuition revenue based grant aid per FTE student and (b) need-based aid as a percent of total educational revenue for public as a percent of total grant aid allocations. The receipt postsecondary institutions. of grant aid has been linked with higher rates of college enrollment and degree completion.32 Institutional funding. State and local appropriations are examined for public two- and four-year institutions

26 2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI Figure 18a. State and Local Educational Appropriations for Higher Education per FTE Student

Figure 18a. State and 20162017 Local Educational Missouri MHEC Average U.S. Appropriations for Higher $14,000 Education per FTE Student

Funding commitment. Figure 18a $12,000 shows that public funding for ANNUAL higher education in Missouri was below the regional and national $9,746 levels in 2016. $10,000 $9,073 Source: SHEEO. (2017). State higher $7,939 $8,752 $7,805 education finance: FY 16.Estimates $8,000 $7,693 have been adjusted for inflation. $7,719 $7,432 $7,563 $7,116 REPORT $6,963 $6,615 $7,020 $6,977 $6,158 $6,424 $6,000 to the Member States $5,933 $5,482

$4,000 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2016

Figure 18b. State Fiscal Support for Higher Education Per $1,000 of Personal Income

Figure 18b. State Fiscal Support for Higher Missouri MHEC Average U.S. Education per $1,000 of $13.00 Personal Income $12.21 $11.90 Funding commitment. According $11.00 to Figure 18b, state commitment Source: SHEEO. (2017). State higher education$10.52 finance: FY 16. Estimates have been adjusted for inflation. defined as funding per $1,000 of $10.37 personal income was below the $9.37 regional and national benchmarks $9.34 $9.00 in 2015. $8.17 $8.11 Source: SHEEO. (2017). State higher $7.28 education finance: FY 16. Estimates $7.21 have been adjusted for inflation. $7.00 Higher Education in Focus 3 3 $6.45 $5.42 $5.47 $5.78 $5.27 $5.00 $5.36

$4.01 $3.84 $3.00 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2015

2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI 27

Source: SHEEO. (2017). State higher education finance: FY 16. Estimates have been adjusted for inflation.

34 Higher Education in Focus Figure 19. State and Local Educational Appropriations and Net Tuition Revenue as a Percentage of Total Educational Revenue for Public Postsecondary Institutions in Missouri (per FTE Student) Figure 19. State and Local Educational Appropriations and Net Tuition Revenue as a Percentage of Total EducationalState and student Revenue cost share. forThe Publicstate assumes Postsecondary a slightly larger Institutionsshare of the costin Missouriof enrollment (percompared FTE Student) to the student’s share, as net tuition revenue constitutes a relatively smaller proportion of revenue among public colleges and universities (see Figure 19). State and student cost share. The state assumes a slightly larger share of the cost of enrollment compared to the student’s share, as net tuition revenue constitutes a relatively smaller proportion of revenue among public colleges and universities (see Figure 19).

Missouri Net Tuition Revenue Missouri Educational Appropriations U.S. Educational Appropriations

80%

73% 73% 72% 73% 70% 69% 70% 67% 65%

63% 62% 63% 61% 61% 60% 60% 60% 59% 59% 59% 59% 60% 54% 51% 51% 50% 50% 51% 50% 46% 50% 50% 49% 49% 49% 41% 41% 41% 41% 39% 39% 40% 40% 40% 40% 37% 38% 37% 35% 33% 30% 31% 28% 30% 27% 27% 27%

20%

Source: SHEEO. (2017). State higher education finance: FY 16.Estimates have been adjusted for inflation.

28 2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI Figure 20a.Figure Public 20a. Doctoral Public Universities: Doctoral UnivStateersities: and Local State Appropriations and Local Relative Appropriations to Educational Relative Expenditures to per FTE Student duringEducational 2014-15 Expenditures Per FTE Student during 2014-15 Institutional funding. Figures 20a-c depict state and local appropriations relative to educational expenditures for each type of institution in the MHEC states during 2014-15. State and local appropriations in Missouri constitute 41 percent of education and related expenditures at public doctoral universities, which is below the national level of 42 percent.

State and Local Appropriations per FTE Student Education and Related Expenditures per FTE Student

$7,002 Illinois $25,448

$6,788 Indiana $19,293

$8,157 Iowa $19,812

$8,543 Kansas $19,028

$5,552 Michigan $20,211

$10,473 Minnesota $23,511

$6,702 Missouri $16,508

$9,807 Nebraska $14,157

$8,695 North Dakota $18,547

$5,373 Ohio $16,097

$6,345 South Dakota $12,945

$8,447 Wisconsin $19,853

$7,447 U.S. $17,794

IL IN IA KS MI MN MO NE ND OH SD WI U.S. Source: NCES IPEDS. (2015). Finance. Fall Enrollment. 28% 35% 41% 45% 27% 45% 41% 69% 47% 33% 49% 43% 42% AppropriationsAppropriations as Percentage of Expenditures as Percentage of Expenditures

IL IN IA KS MI MN MO NE ND OH SD WI U.S. 28% 35% 41% 45% 27% 45% 41% 69% 47% 33% 49% 43% 42%

Source: NCES IPEDS. (2015). Finance. Fall Enrollment. 2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI 29

36 Higher Education in Focus Figure 20b. Public Master’s Universities: State and Local Appropriations Relative to Educational Expenditures per FTE Student Figureduring 2014-1520b. Public Master’s Universities: State and Local Appropriations Relative to Educational Expenditures Per FTE Student during 2014-15 Institutional funding. At master’s universities, state and local appropriations reflect 49 percent of educational expenditures, which is above the national level of 45 percent.

State and Local Appropriations per FTE Student Education and Related Expenditures per FTE Student

$5,351 Illinois $18,456

$5,101 Indiana $9,506

$9,478 Iowa $13,803

$5,164 Kansas $10,486

$3,577 Michigan $12,590

$4,417 Minnesota $10,956

$5,385 Missouri $11,066

$6,771 Nebraska $10,222

$9,059 North Dakota $14,708

$3,621 Ohio $10,255

$4,334 South Dakota $11,197

$2,972 Wisconsin $11,425

$5,358 U.S. $11,880

IL IN IA KS MI MN MO NE ND OH SD WI U.S. Source: NCES IPEDS. (2015). Finance. Fall Enrollment. 29% 54% 69% 49% 28% 40% 49% 66% 62% 35% 39% 26% 45%

AppropriationsAppropriations as Perc as Percentage of Expendituresentage of Expenditures

IL IN IA KS MI MN MO NE ND OH SD WI U.S. 29% 54% 69% 49% 28% 40% 49% 66% 62% 35% 39% 26% 45%

Source: NCES IPEDS. (2015). Finance. Fall Enrollment.

30 2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI

Higher Education in Focus 3 Figure 20c.Figure Public 20c. Associate’s Public Associates Colleges: State Colleges: and Local State Appropriations and Local RelativeAppropr toiations Educational Relative Expenditures to per FTE Educational Expenditures Per FTE Student during 2014-15 Student during 2014-15 Institutional funding. At two-year colleges, state and local appropriations are equivalent to 60 percent of educational expenditures, which is below the national level of 70 percent

State and Local Appropriations per FTE Student Education and Related Expenditures per FTE Student

$6,419 Illinois $7,960

$3,847 Indiana $5,624

$6,040 Iowa $8,564

$7,145 Kansas $8,156

$6,461 Michigan $9,532

$4,248 Minnesota $9,092

$4,237 Missouri $7,028

$8,736 Nebraska $9,228

$8,153 North Dakota $12,183

$5,119 Ohio $7,560

$3,214 South Dakota $9,533

$13,004 Wisconsin $15,398

$5,600 U.S. $7,945

IL IN IA KS MI MN MO NE ND OH SD WI U.S. Source: NCES IPEDS. (2015). Finance. Fall Enrollment. 81% 68% 71% 88% 68% 47% 60% 95% 67% 68% 34% 84% 70% Appropriations as Percentage of Expenditures Appropriations as Percentage of Expenditures

IL IN IA KS MI MN MO NE ND OH SD WI U.S. 81% 68% 71% 88% 68% 47% 60% 95% 67% 68% 34% 84% 70%

Source: NCES IPEDS. (2015). Finance. Fall Enrollment.

2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI 31 38 Higher Education in Focus Figure 21. State Need-based Grant Aid per FTE Undergraduate Student and Percent Figureof Aid 21. DefinedState Need-Based as Need-Based Grant Aid per FTE Undergraduate Student and Percent of Aid Defined as Need-Based Need-based aid. Figure 21 indicates that state need-based grant aid per FTE student in Missouri increased over the past decade but was below the regional and national benchmarks in 2014-15. Missouri allocates 54 percent of its grant aid based on financial need, which is above the national level.

Missouri MHEC Average U.S. Average Median, Top 5 States

$1,095

$920

$573 $467 $360 $375

$222 $141

2003-04 2014-15 47% 68% 51% 98% 54% 73% 48% 89% Percent of State Aid that is Need-based

Source: National Association of State Student Grant and Aid Programs (2004). 35th annual survey report on state-sponsored student financial aid for 2003-04 academic year. National Association of State Student Grant and Aid Programs (2015). 46th annual survey report on state-sponsored student financial aid for 2003-04 academic year. The 2004 estimates have been adjusted for inflation.

Source: National Association of State Student Grant and Aid Programs (2004). 35th annual survey report on state- sponsored student financial aid for 2003-04 academic year. National Association of State Student Grant and Aid Programs (2015). 46th annual survey report on state-sponsored student financial aid for 2003-04 academic year. The 2004 estimates have been adjusted for inflation.

32 2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI Higher Education in Focus 3 9 Endnotes

1 The Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce. (2013). Recovery: Job growth and education requirements through 2020. 2 Job categories were defined by the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce: Managerial and Professional (e.g., management, business operations, finance, and legal); STEM (e.g., computer and mathematical science, architects and technicians, engineers and technicians, life and physical scientists); Social Sciences (psychologists, market research analysts, urban planners, survey researchers, economists, anthropologists, archeologists, sociologists, political scientists, historians, geographers); Community Service and Arts (e.g., social services, arts, design, sports, entertainment, media); Education; Healthcare (professionals and support); Food and Personal Services (e.g., protective services, food preparation and serving, personal care); Sales and Office Support; and Blue Collar (e.g., farming, fishing and forestry, construction and extraction, installation, maintenance and equipment repair, production, transportation and material moving). The Georgetown Center describes “Some College, No Degree” as an amorphous category in which some people with high school diplomas self-report their highest level of education in the “Some College” category. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics defines “Some College, No Degree” as the “achievement of a high school diploma or equivalent plus the completion of one or more postsecondary courses that did not result in a degree or award.” It is generally accepted that this category includes completion of 1- and 2-year certificates. 3 Lumina Foundation. (2014). States with higher education attainment goals. Retrieved from http://strategylabs.luminafoundation.org/wp-content/ uploads/2013/10/State-Attainment- Goals.pdf 4 Lumina Foundation. (2017). A stronger nation. Retrieved from http://strongernation.luminafoundation.org/report/2017/#nation Ewert, S., & Kominski, R. (2014). Measuring alternative educational credentials: 2012. Retrieved from https://www.census.gov/prod/2014pubs/p70-138.pdf 5 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems. (2017). Calculating the economic value of increasing college credentials by 2025. 6 College Board. (2010). Education pays 2010. Retrieved from http://trends.collegeboard.org/ downloads/Education_Pays_2010.pdf 7 U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. (2011). Health, United States, 2010. Retrieved from http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/hus10. pdf#010 8 MHEC. (2013). Advancing Postsecondary Opportunity, Completion, and Productivity. Retrieved from http://www.mhec.org/research 9 Adelman, C. (2006). The toolbox revisited: Paths to degree completion from high school through college. Retrieved from http://www2.ed.gov/ rschstat/research/pubs/toolboxrevisit/toolbox.pdf 10 Pianta, R. C., Barnett, W. S., Burchinal, M., & Thornburg, K. R. (2009). The effects of preschool education: What we know, how public policy is or is not aligned with the evidence base, and what we need to know. Psychological Science in the Public Interest, 10(2), 49-88. 11 American College Testing. (2008). The forgotten middle. Retrieved October 19, 2011, from http://www.act.org/research/policymakers/pdf/ ForgottenMiddle.pdf 12 This report uses the four-year adjusted cohort graduation rate, which is defined as “the number of students who graduate in four years with a regular high school diploma divided by the number of students who form the adjusted cohort for the graduating class. From the beginning of 9th grade (or the earliest high school grade), students who are entering that grade for the first time form a cohort that is “adjusted” by adding any students who subsequently transfer into the cohort and subtracting any students who subsequently transfer out, emigrate to another country, or die” (U.S. Department of Education, 2012). Retrieved from http://eddataexpress.ed.gov/dataelementoverlay.cfm/deid/127/states/XX/ 13 American College Testing. (2010). What are ACT’s college readiness benchmarks? Retrieved from http://www.act.org/research/policymakers/pdf/ benchmarks.pdf 14 The percentage of high school graduates taking the ACT is calculated from the actual number of ACT takers and the projected number of high school graduates. 15 The number of graduates from private high schools in 2014 was estimated as the average of 2011 graduates and the projected number of graduates estimated by WICHE. The Private School Universe Survey does not provide data beyond 2011. 16 Bozick, R., & DeLuca, S. (2005). Better late than never? Delayed enrollment in the high school to college transition. Social Forces, 84(1), 527-550. 17 Hossler, D., Ziskin, M., Gross, J. P., Kim, S., & Cekic, O. (2009). Student aid and its role in encouraging persistence. In J. C. Smart (Ed.), Higher education: Handbook of theory and research (pp. 389-425). Netherlands: Springer Netherlands. Bowen, W. G., Chingos, M. M., & McPherson, M. S. (2009). Crossing the finish line: Completing college at America’s public universities. Princeton, NY: Princeton University Press. Heller, D. E. (Ed.). (2001). The effects of tuition prices and financial aid on enrollment in higher education: California and the nation. Rancho Cordova, CA: EdFund. MHEC (2014). Campus-based practices for promoting student success: Financial aid. Retrieved from http://www.mhec.org/research.

2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI 33 18 Jaeger, D. A., & Page, M. E. (1996). Degrees matter: New evidence on sheepskin effects in the returns to education. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 78(4), 733-740. See also Liu, V. Y., Belfield, C. R., & Trimble, M. J. (2015). The medium-term labor market returns to community college awards: Evidence from North Carolina. Economics of Education Review, 44, 42-55. 19 Schneider, M., & Yin, Lu. (2011). The high cost of low graduation rates: How much does dropping out of college really cost? Retrieved from http:// www.air.org/sites/default/files/downloads/report/AIR_High_Cost_of_Low_Graduation_Aug2011_0.pdf 20 In the case of four-year institutions, overall institutional effectiveness scores were computed as the average of scores based on the four- and six-year graduation rate models. The graduation rate is based on the percentage of full-time, first-time bachelor’s degree-seeking students who graduate within four or six years (2004, 2005, and 2006 cohorts). Overall effectiveness for two-year colleges was computed as the average of scores based on models for graduation within 150% of program time and graduation or transfer within 150% of program time. In addition, the average performance scores of public institutions weighted by FTE undergraduate enrollment were calculated for each state. A state’s institutional effectiveness score reflects the average standardized difference between actual and predicted completion rates at public institutions (rates predicted from institutional and state attributes). See Horn, A. S., & Lee, G. (2016). The reliability and validity of using regression residuals to measure institutional effectiveness in promoting degree completion. Research in Higher Education, 57(4), 469-496. See also Horn, A. S., Horner, O. G., & Lee, G. (2017). Measuring the effectiveness of two-year colleges: a comparison of raw and value-added performance indicators. Studies in Higher Education, 1-19. 21 Family income and race and ethnicity are highly correlated, but they also form unique sources of advantage and disadvantage in educational opportunity and attainment. Additional equity indicators by race and ethnicity will be available at http://www.mhec.org/research 22 Southern Education Foundation. (2015). A new majority. Retrieved from http://www.southerneducation.org/getattachment/4ac62e27-5260-47a5- 9d02-14896ec3a531/A-New-Majority-2015-Update-Low-Income-Students-Now.aspx 23 Higher income is defined as any level of income that did not qualify the student for free or reduced price lunch. Income thresholds for eligibility differ by household size. For example, the annual income limit to qualify for reduced-price meals for a household of four is $44,863. See USDA. (2016). Income eligibility guidelines. Retrieved from https://www.fns.usda.gov/school-meals/income-eligibility-guidelines. 24 See endnote 12. 25 Dependent is defined as age less than 25, not married with spouse present, with the household role of sibling, child, step child, family other, foster child or grandchild. The sample excludes individuals currently enrolled in high school but includes individuals without a high school diploma or certificate who are not currently enrolled in high school. Family income quartiles are based on all households in the state: low income is delineated by the bottom quartile; middle income is delineated by the middle quartiles; and high income is delineated by the top quartile. College enrollment is defined as current postsecondary enrollment or any level of college attainment, including some college or a specific credential. Sample sizes are too small to produce single-year estimates. 26 Not all institutions in all states are accounted for as many did not report Pell data, which affects the U.S. and MHEC averages. Coverage for MHEC states is as follows: IL (100%), IN (91%), IA (100%), KS (92%), MI (100%), MN (74%), MO (84%), NE (100%), ND (100%), OH (95%), SD (95%), and WI (100%). Graduation rates for private institutions were not calculated due to excessive missing data. 27 NASBO. (2017). 2014-16 state expenditure report. Retrieved from https://www.nasbo.org/mainsite/reports-data/state-expenditure-report 28 State Higher Education Executive Officers. (2017).State higher education finance. Retrieved October 19, 2017, from http://www.sheeo.org/sites/ default/files/project-files/SHEEO_SHEF_2016_Report.pdf. Expenditure figures do not include capital or debt service. 29 State and local educational appropriations refer to “state and local support available for public higher education operating expenses, defined to exclude spending for research, agricultural extension, and medical education, as well as support for independent institutions or students attending them” (SHEEO, 2015, p. 11). State and local support refer to “state tax appropriations and local tax support plus additional nontax funds (e.g., lottery revenue) that support or benefit higher education, and funds appropriated to other state entities for specific higher education xpenditures or benefits (e.g., employee fringe benefits disbursed by the state treasurer)” (SHEEO, 2015, p. 11). 30 State fiscal support is defined as “state and local tax and non-tax support for public and independent higher education, including special purpose appropriations for research-agricultural-medical” (SHEEO, 2017, p. 55). 31 Mumper, M., & Freeman, M. L. (2005). The causes and consequences of public college tuition inflation. In J.C. Smart (Ed.),Higher Education: Handbook of Theory and Research, Vol. XX, 307–361. Norwell, MA: Springer. 32 See endnote 17.

34 2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI 2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI 35 MIDWESTERN HIGHER EDUCATION COMPACT 105 Fifth Avenue South, Suite 450 Minneapolis, MN 55401 PHONE: (612) 677-2777 FAX: 612-767-3353 E-MAIL: [email protected]

VISIT MHEC’S WEBSITE AT: WWW.MHEC.ORG

36 2017 Higher Education in Focus: MISSOURI