sign in sign up
<<
Home , Gas heater

Technology assumptions 29TH JUNE 2021

Presented by: A. De Vita

Based on work by: V. Karakousis, A. Flessa, K. Fragkiadakis, P. Karkatsoulis, L. Paroussos, G. Asimakopoulou, S. Evangelopoulou, P. Siskos

Contact: [email protected]

in cooperation with: Technology database consultation process

. Scope: energy (industry, buildings incl. renovation, power and heat, new fuels and storage), transport, technical mitigation potentials for non-CO2 and LULUCF . Type: . for energy: costs (investment costs, fixed costs), efficiencies, technical lifetime for power plants, learning potential . for transport: cost-efficiency curves for multiple technologies for all transport modes . How: . Draft technology assumptions sent to stakeholders, asking for written feedback . Dedicated workshop (last time November 2019) . Revised technology assumptions agreed between E3M, EC (incl. technical support through JRC) . Publication: . Currently public: https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/2018_06_27_technology_pathways_- _finalreportmain2.pdf (version July 2018) . About to be published: update for EU Reference (expected July 14th 2021)

7-Oct-2010 PRIMES typical inputs and outputs

Input Process Output

. GDP and economic growth per sector (many • Detailed energy balances (EUROSTAT format) sectors) –GEM-E3 • Detailed demand projections by sector . PRIMES model including end-use services, equipment and World energy supply outlook – world prices energy savings of fossil fuels –PROMETHEUS (or POLES) (PRice-Induced • Detailed balance for electricity and . Taxes and subsidies Market steam/heat, including generation by power . Interest rates, risk premiums, etc. plants, storage and system operation . Environmental policies and constraints Equilibrium • Production of fuels (conventional and new, . System) including biomass feedstock) Technical and economic characteristics of • Investment in all sectors, demand and supply, future energy technologies Performs technology developments, vintages . Energy consumption habits, parameters • Transport activity, modes/means and vehicles about comfort, rational use of energy and iterations of • Association of energy use and activities savings, energy efficiency potential demand and • Energy costs, prices and investment expenses . Parameters of supply curves for primary per sector and overall supply through • CO2 Emissions from energy combustion and energy, potential of sites for new plants explicitly industrial processes especially regarding power generation sites, calculated prices • Emissions of atmospheric pollutants renewables potential per source type, etc. • Policy Assessment Indicators (e.g. imports, RES shares, etc.)

7-Oct-2010 How is technology progress derived?

Techno-economic characteristics improve due to: . Learning-by-research (LBR): R&D investments leading to autonomous progress in the costs and efficiencies of technologies . Learning-by-doing (LBD): Economies of scale leading to e.g. decreased costs because of accumulated experience in the production, or the possibility to produce bulk amounts of a certain product. The “ultimate” status for a technology, as provided in the tables, incorporates optimistic assumptions both for autonomous progress, but also a market large enough to provide costs reductions via economies of scale effects: it resembles a technical potential and a floor cost Learning in scenarios can be considered differently based on expected market shares and enabling conditions

7-Oct-2010 Technology description – energy (PRIMES)

. Technologies in PRIMES are classified in . Technologies can also be classified in three three categories according to their maturity: classes according to their sector: . Mature technologies w. limited or no further . Demand-side technologies that include: learning potential - e.g. steam/gas turbines, non- . Energy equipment and appliances (i.e. motors, condensing lighting bulbs, heat pumps, ICE engines), with a . Mature technologies w. still unexploited learning number of different equipment classes available at potential - e.g. solar PV, wind onshore each time step (different costs and efficiency combinations that improve over time). . Technologies at low TRL (demonstration or early . Energy renovation interventions commercial applications) – e.g. electrolysers . Supply side technologies, including new fuel . Cost for the last category may change due to production facilities and storage the context of the scenario e.g. presence of . Infrastructure technologies cost for network enabling conditions of decarbonisation infrastructure etc. (whose investment is exogenous to the modelling).

7-Oct-2010 Power and heat supply technologies Open cycle cycle Open steam turbine Supercritical steam turbine Supercritical Integrated CCGT advanced conventional CCGT cycle open turbines Gas Organic Rankine Cycle Organic Rankine types) (various cells Fuel plants power ICE plants HT Biomass plantsBiomass HT various fuels various various sizes lignite coal Lignite Coal various sizes fuels various oil Biomass Conventional thermal Coal CCS post combustion post CCS Coal Lignite CCS post post combustion CCS Lignite Lignite CCS oxyfuel Lignite CCS oxyfuel CCS Coal IG Fuel Oil CCS precombustion CCS Oil Fuel IG combustion post CCS Oil Fuel CCGT CCS post combustion post CCS CCGT oxyfuel CCS Lignite IG precombustion CCS Lignite IG precombustion CCS Coal IG CCGT CCS oxyfuel CCS CCGT precombustion CCS CCGT combustion post CCS Lignite IG oxyfuel CCS Coal IG combustion post CCS Coal IG BECCS (various types) CCGT CCS oxyfuel CCS CCGT CCS plants CCS 7- Oct - 2010 Hydro with reservoir Hydro with - Hydro run Wind onshore Wind Wind offshore Wind Solar rooftopSolar residential large PVSolar Tidal solar thermal rooftopSolar commercial Verysmall wind Geothermal 3 categories3 enthalpy wind intensity categories intensitywind wind intensity categories intensitywind solar intensity categories intensity solar categories intensity solar solar intensity categories intensity solar - waves Renewables of- river - scale Boilers Electric boilers Geothermal pumps HT Heat CHP Heat and steam and Heat various fuels various various sizes technologies various various sizes fuels various Pumping Batteries CAES P2G P2H2 pure mixed grid meter the behind cars Storage - based Buildings segmentation scheme Building renovationBuilding shell interventions Levels R R R R R R R R R 2 1 0 8 7 6 5 4 3 of of to 5 m3/m2h) permeability rateair achievement of and insulation layer of cm 20 "Deep" Renovation (Windows Replacement of to 9m3/m2h) permeability rateair achievement of and insulation layer of cm 20 "Deep" Renovation (Windows Replacement rate toof 9 m3/m2h) layer cm, a10 insulation of and achievement of air permeability "Medium" Renovation(WindowsReplacement rate 27m3/m2h) of layer cm, a10 insulation of and achievement of air permeability "Medium" Renovation(WindowsReplacement 27 m3/m2h) cm, a5 layer insulation of and achievement of air permeability of "Medium" Renovation(WindowsReplacement "Medium" Renovation (WindowsReplacement "Light" Renovation (WindowsReplacement "Light" Renovation (WindowsReplacement RenovationNo m3/m2h) layer cma 5 insulation of and achievement of air permeability of 27 Definition - - UW/m2K value 1.7 - - U value 2.7 W/m2K) valueU 2.7 U value W/m2K 1.0 U value W/m2K 1.5 - - - - U value W/m2K 2.7 U value W/m2K 1.5 U value W/m2K 1.7 U value W/m2K 1.7 - ) - - - , a , a 7- - - - - Oct , - 2010 Stovefuels forliquid heaterLPG Autonomous Stovefuels for solid Geothermal pond Distributed heat Thermal solar Electricalheater space Ground- Conventionaloil Heating Space Condensing oil boiler oil Condensing Conventionalgas boiler Air Wood pellets boiler Autonomousgas heater Gas heatGas Micro Micro Condensing gas boiler Condensing Water Equipment types - sourceheat pump - - - CHP fuel cell CHP fuel CHP ICE CHP sourceheat pump sourceheat pump Water Heating Autonomous Stovefuels for solid Geothermal pond Distributed heat Thermal solar Simple electric water heater Heat pump waterHeat pump heater Ground- Conventional oil Condensing oil Condensing Conventional gas Air Wood pellets boiler Autonomousgas heater Gas heat pump heatGas Micro Micro gasCondensing Water - sourceheat pump - - - CHP fuel cell CHP fuel CHP ICE CHP sourceheat pump sourceheat pump LPG heater oiler b boiler oiler b oiler Cooling Cooking Liquid cookersLiquid Electric cookers Solid/Biomass cookersSolid/Biomass Gas cookersGas Air Water Ground- Adsorption Adsorption Absorption chiller Absorption Gas heat pump (air) pump heatGas systems Centralized cooling Split systemSplit condition air - sourceheat pump - sourceheat pump sourceheat pump . 10 industrial sectors . further split in 31 sub-sectors and in total 234 energy uses PRIMES-Industry . distinct sectors for primary and secondary (recycling) production

. 22 different fuels, including “new” fuel carriers (hydrogen, biofuels) . process emissions included . CCS option is included for all process emissions

7-Oct-2010 Electrification and hydrogen options in industry Electrolysis for chemical production,for Electrolysis chlorine, ammoniae.g. Electrolysis for metal production Electric Arc ,Electric Arc Electric melting, Induction furnace enthalpyHigh Process forHeat Heat: Power to Plasma heating,Infrared Heating Plasma pasteurization:Microwaveheating UV, Low sterilization, enthalpydrying, forHeat in Power Process Heat to H treatment purification, metal Refineries, Glass 0 2 Conventionaladvancedpumps and Heat : Ammonia, : Ammonia, – 8 years Electric boilers H 2 : Mix in gasMix supply: in and use ofin heat gas applications + H to avoidto CO production 2 : Green : Green Mechanicalrecompression vapor H 2 : Fuel cells CHP applications 2 – low Mechanical, electrostatic, filtration, Nano to medium H Horizon of commercial ofHorizon deployment 2 : to : and use for heat and chemistry temperatures 8 7- Oct – - H 2010 15 years 2 : Direct use in high temperature applications Powerseparation for H 2 Mechanical replacingdrive steam drive : Direct iron iron reduction ore Direct : produce to steel - technologies, osmosis reverse High - temperaturepumps Heat 15 – 30 years Sectoral Integration Building blocks Geothermic Air, Water, heat Ambient Electricity upgrade to Power recompression Mechanicalor vapor damp (Heat pump) Drying and SeparationDrying - to heat District Space Heating Space - Heat Recovery Heat Waste Use of H2 of Use Direct Powerandto H2 CH4 H2 Electrolysis Methanation CH4 H2 CO2 Chemicals Methanol Ammonia H2 Ethylene N2 Paraffin Toluene Xylene Biogas or biomass Methanol synthesis Powerto liquids High Dimethyl Ether co - - electrolysis temperature Steam Separation Oligome rization Syngas Olefins, , - CO2 Syn Refining Fischer Kerosene Diesel Gasoline Troops - crude - Technology description – transport (PRIMES-TREMOVE)

Fossil liquids Busses & Heavy goods Private Cars Two wheelers Light Commercial Passenger Rail Aviation Freight Rail Vehicles (<3.5 ton) Coaches Sea Transport vehicles •Gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, kerosene

Passenger <500 km 3.5-7.5t Small Motorcycles Passenger Urban buses Metro/Tram Railcars Fossil gases inland distance class trucks Energy carriers navigation •LPG, CNG/LNG Inter-urban National 7.5-16t Medium Mopeds Freight 500-1000 km Locomotives coaches Conventional freight distance trucks passenger rail maritime class Bioenergy (blended or drop in) (Railcars, International 16-32t trucks Locomotives) •Ethanol, biogasoline, biodiesel, biokerosene, bioheavy, Large freight • 4x2 Rigid maritime 1000-1500 Regional biogas, biomethane km distance • 6x2 Rigid • Container class Regional • Dry bulk Synthetic fuels (drop-in) High speed carrier Rail • General >32t trucks cargo 1500-2000 •E-gas, e-diesel, e-kerosene, e-gasoline • Liquid km distance • 4x2 Tractor tanker class Regional • 4x2 tractor Electricity long-haul >2000 km • 4x2 Rigid distance class long-haul • 6x2 Tractor Hydrogen

Transport modes segmentation Transport regional • 6x2 Tractor long-haul

Conventional Gasoline ICE Gasoline Conventional diesel Diesel ICE Conventional FO ICE Jet engine engine Hybrid Gasoline ICE ICE Hybrid gasoline Electric Conventional diesel Hybrid Electric Gaseous ICE PHEV gasoline PHEV gasoline Fuel cell ICE Electric

Hybrid Aviation Diesel Diesel Gaseous ICE Fuel cell Hybrid Diesel Electric FFV (E85, E100) Private Cars Electric Two wheelers Hybrid diesel LPG Fuel cell Fuel cell Sea Transport LPG CNG Pantograph trucks

CNG PHEV diesel Buses and Coaches PHEV diesel BEV Heavy GoodsHeavy Vehicles,

Powertrains BEV Fuel cell Light Vehicles Light Commercial Fuel cell Passenger and Freight Rail 7-Oct-2010 GAINS model: technical non-CO2 mitigation potentials 2050 (example EU-28)

% of full Additional technical mitigation potential mitigation 2050 (incl. technological development) potential MAC MAC adopted in ≤ 20 €/t CO2eq > 20 €/t CO2eq Emission source sector Non-CO2 mitigation measure Baseline Mt CO2eq Mt CO2eq Livestock -enteric fermentation Breeding for productivity, animal health & fertility; animal feed changes Livestock -manure management Anaerobic digestion of manure with biogas recovery, on farms > 100 LSU Agricultural soils VRT; nitrification inhib.; precision farming; abandon histosol cultivation Other agriculture Intermittent aeration of rice fields; enforced ban on agr waste burning Coal mining Ventilation Air Oxidation Oil production Extended recovery of associated gas & leakage control Gas production, transmission & distribution Leak Detection & Repair programs e.g., using infrared cameras Stationary combustion Modification in fluidized bed combustion Industrial processes (Caprolactam prod., Primary Al prod., Solvents use etc.) -BAT Replace HFCs Stationary Replace HFCs Mobile air conditioning Replace HFCs

Other N2O and F-gas use Mixed options Industry solid waste Food industry: Anaerobic digestion with biogas recovery n.a. Industry wastewater 2-stage treatment: anaerobic w biogas recovery then aerobic n.a. Municipal solid waste Ban on landfill of organic waste n.a. Domestic wastewater Optimize process towards low N2O; Anaerobic digestion w biogas recovery n.a.

Total technical mitigation potential for non-CO2 GHGs in 2050: 277 Mt CO2eq 184 92

7-Oct-2010 Technology description – GLOBIOM

. LULUCF options agriculture: . LULUCF options forestry: . Change in tillage practice: conventional, reduced . Reduction of deforestation area & minimum . Increase of afforestation area; . Change in crop rotations: various NUTS2 specific . Change of rotation length of existing managed crop rotations forests in different locations . Perennial grasses and bioenergy crops: . Change of the ratio of thinning versus final miscanthus, switchgrass, other green fodder, set- fellings aside . Change of harvest intensity . Short rotation tree coppice – poplar, willow . Change harvest locations . Reallocation of production across pixels, crops or . Change in forest residue harvest intensity countries with different CO2 intensities . Abandonment of CO2 intensive production areas . Demand side options – behavioral changes, diets & food waste, harvested wood products etc.

7-Oct-2010