Company Note
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Meet - the Equity Research - management event in managementBoston in event Investment Research Company update 8 February 2017 Novo Nordisk Buy (Unchanged) Pharmaceuticals, Denmark Meet-the-management event in Boston Key data On the day of the FY release, there was much focus on risks due to the changed Price (DKK)* 234 Target price, 12 mth (DKK) † 300 guidance range. The meet-the-management event in Boston on Tuesday had Market cap (DKKm) 606,998 more focus on opportunities. Our impression is that management is talking more Market cap (EURm) 81,652 towards the high end of guidance but that the low end was changed if something Reuters NOVOb.CO unexpected (not very likely) should occur. We keep our DKK300 12M TP and Buy. Bloomberg NOVOB DC No. of shares (m) 2,599.6 Clearer message. Novo has had time to digest how its FY release was received Net debt (current Y/E) (m) -14,353 and its communication has become clearer. The EBIT guidance of -2% to +3% Free float 73.0% Avg. daily vol, 12M (000) 3,376.6 growth in 2017 includes a 4% headwind from Vagifem generics and a tough Norditropin comp. Adjusting for this implies 2-7% growth, which makes it Price performance 400 380 comfortable to deliver 5%-plus after 2017. Cost savings in 2017 from layoffs in 2016 360 340 come to DKK1bn and Novo is set to save a further DKK500m from procurements 320 300 280 in 2017 (and 2018) – savings that have been invested in other parts of Novo. 260 240 220 US. Novo does not seem that concerned about a Trump effect short term (although Feb 16 May 16 Aug 16 Nov 16 Feb 17 NOVOb.CO STOXX 600/Health Care rebased it is included in the low end of its 2017 guidance). It believes deregulation, tax entry not defined. Error! AutoText reforms and affordability are on the table. A central price regulation for Medicare 1M 3M 12M 5Y Part D seems unlikely. It is pleased with the current access for its US products and Absolute -9% 4% -26% 54% Rel. local market -9% -6% -32% -24% the strong SWITCH/DEVOTE data on Tresiba puts it in a strong position ahead of Rel. EU sector -8% -4% -30% -6% the 2018 negotiations. Novo still expects a 5% annual US market share gain for Source: FactSet Tresiba but with the current trend, we believe it will end 2017 above 10%. Estimate changes 17E 18E 19E M&A. Novo is clear that M&A activity to revitalise its Biopharma franchise is on the Sales 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% table. Maybe already in 2017. It looks at possibilities in the region of USD1-3bn. EBITDA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% EBIT (adj.) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Valuation. We base 12M target price on a blend of DCF and relative valuation. EPS (adj.) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Source: Danske Bank Markets estimates Key financials Next event Q1 3-May Year-end Dec (DKK) 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E * Price as at close on 7 February 2017 Revenues (m) 107,927 111,780 116,006 121,838 130,154 † Includes dividends Revenues growth 21.5% 3.6% 3.8% 5.0% 6.8% EBITDA (m) 52,403 51,625 53,116 56,240 60,528 EBIT adj. (m) 46,619 48,432 50,102 52,703 56,506 EBIT growth 35.2% 3.9% 3.4% 5.2% 7.2% Pre-tax profit (m) 43,483 47,798 47,688 52,771 56,562 EPS adj. 12.4 15.0 15.2 17.3 19.1 DPS 6.40 7.60 7.80 8.60 9.80 Dividend yield 1.6% 3.0% 3.3% 3.7% 4.2% FCF yield (incl. recurr capex) 3.3% 6.2% 5.4% 6.4% 7.3% EBIT margin (adj.) 43.2% 43.3% 43.2% 43.3% 43.4% Net debt/EBITDA (x) -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 ROIC 100.1% 98.7% 97.0% 88.2% 84.2% Analyst(s) EV/sales (x) 9.4 5.6 4.9 4.5 4.1 Martin Parkhøi EV/EBITDA (adj.) (x) 20.0 11.9 10.4 9.6 8.6 +45 45 12 80 46 EV/EBIT (adj.) (x) 21.7 13.0 11.2 10.4 9.4 [email protected] P/E (adj.) (x) 32.2 17.0 15.4 13.5 12.2 P/BV (x) 21.7 14.1 12.0 10.5 9.3 Thomas Bowers +45 45 12 80 44 Source: Company data, Danske Bank Markets estimates [email protected] 1Important | Novo disclosuresNordisk Buy and certifications are contained from page 12 of this report. www.danskemarketsequities.com Meet - the - management event in managementBoston in event Meet-the-management event in Boston Novo hosted a meet-the-management event in Boston Tuesday, in which we participated. Novo gave a brief plenum introduction by its CEO and then hosted three separate Q&A sessions with the top management of the company. The FY release from the company was not received very well by the equity market (- 7% on the day for the shares) as the company broadened its guidance range for both sales and EBIT. Although the sales guidance range was both lowered in the bottom and lifted in the top, the market seemed to focus entirely on the risks (reason for lowering of the low-end of the guidance range). We also believe Novo had significant difficulties in coming across with its message. That led to increased uncertainty. However, we believe the message was sharper and clearer at the meet-the- management event. Focus was also less on the risks and more on obvious opportunities. In general, we believe Novo is now downplaying the risk of a US political impact of major character in 2017 and it seems to see a low risk of central price regulation of Medicare Part D (a third of Novo’s US sales goes through Medicare). On the other hand, Novo seems to be very excited by the recent trend for Tresiba in US and it is difficult for us to see its market share not being somewhat above the guided 10% level at the end of 2017. So, if these things play out, Novo should be able to deliver towards the high end of the guidance range (-1% to +4% for sales and -2% to +3% for EBIT, both in local currencies). It is naturally quite important for the equity story that Novo is as far away as possible from delivering negative growth. Error! AutoText entry not defined. Error! AutoText We remain confident in our Buy rating and our 12M target price of DKK300. We realise it could be a bumpy ride as we expect a weak Q1 (due to tough comps) and uncertainty ahead of the outcome of the 2018 price negotiations (we expect a conclusion from Novo in its Q2 report in August). However, in H2, we expect much stronger growth due to easier comps and increased benefit from its many new products. Below, we highlight key topics from the Q&A meetings in which we participated at the event in Boston (we participated in all three). 2 | Novo Nordisk Buy www.danskemarketsequities.com Meet - the - management event in managementBoston in event Mads Krogsgaard Thomsen, CSO The meeting with Mr. Krogsgaard was focused entirely on R&D. We discussed various topics like Tresiba, Semaglutide, Oral Semaglutide and Haemophilia. With respect to Tresiba, Novo is convinced that this is a paradigm shift in basal insulins as big as the paradigm shift was when Lantus was launched by Sanofi 15-16 years ago. It in particular highlights the DEVOTE data as being very important (more than the SWITCH data). This data will be presented at a symposium at ADA in San Diego in June and simultaneously be published in high impact scientific papers. Novo is also very excited by its once-weekly GLP-1, Semaglutide. It expects a US approval late this year. Semaglutide showed a very strong CV benefit in Sustain-6 (26% reduction versus 13% for Victoza in the LEADER trial). However, Novo still “only” expects the data for CV to be included in the data section of Semaglutide’s label and not as a separate indication. This is due to the size and design (non-inferiority) of the Sustain-6. Novo’s key competitor in GLP-1 is Lilly’s once-weekly Trulicity. Besides having a similar clinical profile as Novo’s once-daily Victoza, it has the convenience benefit of being once-weekly and a very good pen device. Novo is currently conducting a head-to-head (data available in Q3) between Semaglutide and Trulicity. It appears confident that Semaglutide will beat Trulicity on both glucose control and weight. Semaglutide will be launched initially in a Flextouch-like device, but we believe Novo is also looking at a new device. However, while Trulicity’s device plays a role in the competition versus Victoza, it will play a smaller role versus Semaglutide if Novo can show the superiority of Semaglutide versus Trulicity in the Sustain-7 trial. Error! AutoText entry not defined. Error! AutoText Novo is also right now conducting phase 2 trials for Semaglutide as a once-daily injection in both diabetes (headline data has been published) and obesity (headline data in H2 2017). We, however, get a clear impression that Semaglutide as a once- daily injection will not be the way forward. We expect the phase 2 obesity data on Semaglutide to be strong and we then expect Novo to start a phase 3 obesity trial in 2018 for Semaglutide as a once-weekly injection.