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Hurricane Jose eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory Hurricane Jose Information from NHC Advisory 52A, 8:00 AM AST Mon September 18, 2017 On the forecast track, the center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the Outer Banks of North Carolina today, pass well east of the Delmarva peninsula tonight and Tuesday, and pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, however, Jose is forecast to remain a hurricane through Tuesday. Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 85 mph Position Relative to 270 miles ESE of Cape Hatteras Speed: (Category one) Land: North Carolina Est. Time & Region: N/A Min Central Pressure: 976 mb Coordinates: 33.5 N, 71.2 W Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 205 miles Bearing/Speed: N or 360 degrees at 9 mph N/A Winds Extent: Wind Speed: Forecast Summary ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) and the wind-field map (below right), which is based on the NHC’s forecast track, both show Jose now heading north. To illustrate the uncertainty in Jose’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind-field map (below right) in pale gray. ■ Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Tuesday. ■ Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket through Wednesday. Jose is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches along the mid-Atlantic coast , and from southeast New York to coastal Maine. This rainfall could cause isolated flooding. Forecast Track for Hurricane Jose Forecast Wind-field for Hurricane Jose © Copyright 2016 Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the permission of Willis Limited/Willis Re Inc. Some information contained in this report may be compiled from third party sources; however, we do not guarantee and are not responsible for the accuracy of Hazard and damage potential maps such. This report is for general information only, is not intended to be relied upon, and any action based on or in connection with anything contained herein should be taken only after obtaining specific advice. The views expressed in this produced by Willis are based on numerical report are not necessarily those of Willis Limited/Willis Re Inc., or any of its/their parent or sister companies, subsidiaries or affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC or any member companies thereof (hereinafter “Willis Towers Watson”). modeling results from Kinetic Analysis Willis Towers Watson accepts no responsibility for the content or quality of any third party websites to which we refer. Corporation. The TAOS real-time hazard and impact forecast information is provided "as is" and without warranties as to performance or any other warranties whether expressed or implied. The user is strongly cautioned to recognize that natural hazards modeling and analysis are subject to many uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the uncertainties inherent in weather and climate, incomplete or inaccurate weather data, changes to the natural and built environment, limited historical records, and limitations in the state of the art of modeling, as well as limits to the scientific understanding of storm weather phenomena. Anyone making use of the hazard and impact information provided by KAC, or the information contained within, assumes all liability deriving from such use, and agrees to "hold harmless" any and all agencies or individuals associated with its creation. The user agrees to provide any subsequent users of this data with this disclaimer. The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a representation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use. Coastal Watches and Warnings A Tropical Storm Watch – meaning that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours – for Fenwick Island to Sandy Hook, Delaware Bay South, East Rockaway Inlet to Plymouth, Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket. Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2017 Atlantic Season to Date 2017 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 – 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 16 Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Tropical Storm avg '50-'11 Tropical Storm 2017 Hurricane avg '50-'11 Hurricane 2017 TS Maria Major Hurricane avg '50-'11 Major Hurricane 2017 2017 year to date (1/1/16 – 09/18/17) 13 7 3 12 TS Lee TS Katia 2016 year to date (1/1/16 – 09/18/17) 11 4 1 TS Jose TS Irma 14.7 7.9 3.8 8 TS Harvey 1995-2011 season average TS Gert HU Maria TS FranklinHU Katia 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 TS Emily Hu Jose 4 TS Don HU Irma HU Harvey 2017 CSU season forecasts 13 6 2 TS Cindy Major HU Jose TS Bret HU Gert Major HU Irma (Colorado State University at June 1,‘17) HU Franklin Major HU Harvey 2017 NOAA season forecasts 11-17 5-9 2-4 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov (May25, 2017) Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2017 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Jose is the tenth named storm, fifth hurricane, and third major hurricane while The graph above shows 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and average Lee is the twelfth, and Maria is the thirteenth named storm and seventh hurricane occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It shows, for example, that of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Last year saw eleven named storms four Jose became the season’s fifth named hurricane on September 06. It also shows the hurricanes and one major hurricane by September 18. average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5). New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Average Remaining Risk Five Day Tropical Weather Outlook Average Risk Remaining in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Jose, located a few Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) both peak in hundred miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, on Tropical Depression September, as the graph below illustrates. The average remaining percentage of days Lee, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, and on Hurricane Maria, located just with Atlantic hurricane activity at September 18 is 39% for all hurricanes and 33% for east of the Lesser Antilles. major hurricanes. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900 All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5) Contact us Roy Cloutier Ryan Vesledahl Matt Nicolai roy.cloutier@ willistowerswatson.com [email protected] [email protected] +1 (952) 841-6652 +1 (952) 841-6672 +1 (952) 841-6657 2 .
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