NORTH TRANSPORT MODEL

Developer Impacts – Town Centre Area Action Plan – Preferred Option

JOB NUMBER: 5051674.1595.925 DOCUMENT REF: Wellingborough Area Action Plan Development Impacts – Preferred Option

01 Developer Impact Report DD TD CS CS 03/01/08

Originated Checked Reviewed Authorised Date

Revision Purpose Description

NORTH NORTHAMPTONSHIRE TRANSPORT MODEL

Developer Impacts – Wellingborough Town Centre Area Action Plan

Contents

Section Page

1. Introduction 1-1 2. Do-Minimum Highway Network and Matrix Changes 2-3 Trip Matrix Changes 2-8

3. Assessment of the Wellingborough Town Centre AAP 3-9 Preferred Land Use Option 3-9 Highway Options 3-9 Trip Rates and Flow 3-10 Distribution of Flow 3-10 Global Statistics 3-11 Junction Turning Movement Demand Flows / Stress Levels / Average Queues 3-11 Link Demand Flows 3-11 Link Stress Levels 3-12 Journey Times 3-12 Town Centre Through-Traffic 3-12 Trip Suppression 3-12

4. Summary 4-13

Appendices Appendix A – Land Use Tables Appendix B – Highway Options Appendix C – Trip Rates and Generation

Appendix D –Global Statistics

Appendix E – Junction Turning Movements – Demand Flows, Stress Levels and Average Queues

Appendix F – Links – Peak Hour Traffic Demand Flows Appendix G – Links – Peak Hour Stress Levels Appendix H – Journey Times Appendix I – Town Centre Through-Traffic Appendix J – Trip Suppression

NNTM Wellingborough AAP - Preferred Option.doc TRANSPORT MODEL

Developer Impacts – Wellingborough Town Centre Area Action Plan

1. Introduction

1.1 Northamptonshire is part of the Milton Keynes and South (MKSM) ‘Growth Area’ study. The MKSM study report highlights potential for the development within the wider sub-region including , and Wellingborough.

1.2 Atkins has been commissioned by Northamptonshire County Council (NCC) and the Joint Planning Unit (JPU) to develop a transport model of North Northamptonshire and the surrounding area. This transport model builds on the Corby Model that was developed by Atkins for NCC in 2004/2005. The Corby model has been subsequently used for the assessment of developments within the area and to inform both developers and NCC of the impacts on the highway networks.

1.3 The purpose of the North Northamptonshire model is to enable the impacts of proposed new developments within the study area to be identified and assess potential transport improvements. As a result of this, the model is a key tool in enabling the development of a transport strategy that is capable of meeting the future demands on the transport infrastructure.

1.4 Traditionally, developments have been assessed on an individual basis, considering the local network impacts. This impact is considered minimal once the increase in trips compared to the Do-Minimum traffic flow at a junction is below 5% for congested junctions.

1.5 The council have recognised, however, that where several new developments may increase traffic levels at a junction by less than 5% the cumulative impacts may be significant. The use of a Transport model will aid the identification of the impacts of all the developments cumulatively as opposed to the traditional individual local impacts.

1.6 The North Northamptonshire model has been designed to assess the impacts of developments in both the AM and PM peak hours and at four forecast traffic years, namely 2011, 2016, 2021 and 2031. This has enabled the potential phasing of developments to be considered for each analysis year.

1.7 Following an extensive data review and consultations with relevant developers, and their consultants, the traffic model for these forecast years has been developed and the strategic impacts of the developments as a whole as well as the individual development contributions may now be assessed. The underlying assumptions within this model have been applied to all developments, hence providing an equitable assessment of all developments within North Northamptonshire.

1.8 This Developer Impact Report provides the appropriate assessment for the Wellingborough Town Centre Area Action Plan (AAP) preferred development option and considers the following: ♦ Highway network changes; ♦ Trip matrix changes; and ♦ Assessment of the development scenarios.

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Developer Impacts – Wellingborough Town Centre Area Action Plan

1.9 This report aims to provide the developer with an understanding of the wider impacts of the introduction of both their individual development and the total of the proposed developments within the study area.

1.10 A number of scenarios have been developed for this assessment, consisting of a preferred development option, with and without modal shift and two highway layouts.

1.11 This report provides an objective assessment of the impacts of this development. As such, no specific interpretation or conclusions have been drawn for the purpose of this report.

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Developer Impacts – Wellingborough Town Centre Area Action Plan

2. Do-Minimum Highway Network and Matrix Changes

2.1 As noted in Section 1, this model has been developed to consider the impacts of the substantial development growth proposed in the North Northamptonshire area. It is recognised that this expected growth will result in a significant increase in trips on the highway network.

2.2 The proposed highway network changes in North Northamptonshire are dependant on the proposed developments being granted.

2.3 Following discussions with NCC and the JPU, a list of all highway schemes to be included in the Do-Minimum scenario was compiled. This includes: ♦ Likely proposed schemes; ♦ Committed schemes; and ♦ Schemes associated with developments. 2.4 These highway schemes are listed in Table 2.1 overleaf, which shows the year the schemes have been implemented within the model. To accompany this table the schemes included in the model are illustrated in Figure 2.1 and Figure 2.2.

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Developer Impacts – Wellingborough Town Centre Area Action Plan

Table 2.1 – Highway Schemes Included within the North Northamptonshire Model

Location Scheme Year of Modelled Years Implementation Wellingborough A45/Turnells Mill Lane – All approaches signalised. 2026 2031 Additional lanes on some approaches. Size of roundabout increased. Cut through link for the movement between the connector road and Turnells Mill Lane (east) Wellingborough A509 London Road / Turnells Mill Lane. The Embankment – 2026 2031 All approaches signalised. Additional lanes on some approaches. Roundabout diameter increased. Cut through links: between London Road (N) and Turnells Mill Lane & London Road (S) & The Embankment Wellingborough A509 Kettering Road / Niort Way / Northen Way / 2016 2016 Harrowden Road/ Wellingborough Road - Left turn slip lane from Niort Way to Kettering Road. Widening of Kettering Road approach. Closure of Wellingborough Road entry to the roundabout with the new link provided 400m to the north. Wellingborough Northen Way / Stewarts Road – Minor widening on existing 2016 2016 approaches. Additional arm for access into the site. Wellingborough A45 / Ditchford Road – Northern Roundabout – Changes to 2026 2031 signals. Eastbound on-slip to the A45. Wellingborough A45 / Ditchford Road – Southern Roundabout – Changes to 2026 2031 signals. Eastbound off-slip from the A45. Wellingborough Midland Road / Senwick Road / Elsden Road - Additional 2016 2016 lanes on some approaches. Left turn slip from Elsden Road to Midland Road. Wellingborough Link between Midland Road and Weast inc. bridges 2016 2016 Wellingborough A510 Finedon Road / Wellingborough East Access Route 2016 2016 – New junction – provision of two roundabouts. Three lane approaches on all Finedon Road arms. Wellingborough Sanders Road / Wellingborough East Access Route – New 2016 2016 4-arm signalised junction. Wellingborough The Embankment / Wellingborough East Access Route – 2016 2016 New 3-arm roundabout. Wellingborough Internal Road through Flood Plain 2011 Wellingborough Northen Way / Stewarts Road – Access road through site. 2016 Wellingborough Wilby Roundabout – improvements – increased capacity 2011 Wellingborough Midland Road Bridge – Linking Wellingborough with 2011 developments Wellingborough IWIMP – A509 Isham to Wellingborough Improvement Works 2011

Desborough B669 Stoke Road – New priority access junction 2011 Harborough Road – New access roundabout 2011 Desborough B669 Stoke Road – Upgraded (width increased – still single) 2011 Desborough Stoke Road / Harborough Road – dedicated right-turn from 2011 Stoke Road Desborough Pipewell Road – New priority access junction 2011

Rothwell A6 / Site Access – New three arm roundabout 2011 Rothwell B576 Access – New 4-arm roundabout into both sections of 2011 site

Kettering A14 J7 – Signal Control at all entries. Widening A14 2011 eastbound off-slip and A43 entries to roundabout, and circulatory in this vicinity. Widen to 2 lanes on A14 westbound on-slip. Widen to 2 lanes on A14 westbound off-slip. Lengthen A14 eastbound off-slip. Circulatory increased to: 4 lanes between A43 entry and A4300 exit, 3 lanes over both A14 bridges and 3 lanes south of A14 Kettering A6003 / A6014 – Increased capacity and signalisation 2011 Kettering A6003 / Barford Bridge Junction (tie in of cir) – 50mph both 2011 directions until CLR Kettering Access from A6003 – New roundabout 2011 Kettering A43 Through Geddington Village – 50mph limit south of 2011 village

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Developer Impacts – Wellingborough Town Centre Area Action Plan

Location Scheme Year of Modelled Years Implementation Corby New Distributor Road on western edge of Corby. From 2011 A6003 / A6014 Rbt to A427 Corby Town Centre Changes – Anne Street is severed and a new 2011 layout modelled Corby Corby Weldon Link – New Single carriageway linking A43 2011 and A427 east of Weldon Corby Corby Dualling – New dual from Steel Road / Birchington 2011 Road (in east) joining up with existing Mitchell Road / Phoenix Parkway Roundabout Corby Corby Link Road – New dual-carriageway link road between 2011 A6003 and A43, tying into the A6003 south of Corby and a new roundabout where the A43 meets A6086. Corby A43 / A427 Dualling – A43 East of Corby along A427 and 2011 Steel Road to junction of Steel Road / Birchington Road

Isham Isham Bypass – A509 south of A14 – south of the B574 near 2011 Harrowden in the south

Rushden Town Centre – A6 Link Road 2011

A45 Stanwick to A45 Dualling – from the A45 at Stanwick to A14 J13 2011 Thrapston Dualling

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Developer Impacts – Wellingborough Town Centre Area Action Plan

Figure 2.1 – Scheme locations in Kettering and Wellingborough area

©

2.5 Figure 2.1 illustrates the proposed highway schemes around the Kettering and Wellingborough area that have been included in the model. The schemes associated with the WEAST development have been included in the Do-Minimum model.

2.6 NCC and the Highways Agency are currently undertaking an assessment of the A14 within the study area. The exact nature and timescales of the proposed improvement from this study are uncertain at present; hence it is indicated as a dashed line.

2.7 Atkins awaits any progress on the A14 recommendation and the model is at a stage where any proposed schemes can be tested against the model once known. However, no improvements have currently been incorporated into the Do-Minimum model.

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Developer Impacts – Wellingborough Town Centre Area Action Plan

Figure 2.2 – Proposed Highway Schemes in the Borough of Corby

© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved. Northamptonshire Co

Northern Distributor

A427 / A43 Improvements

Western Distributor

Town Centre Improvements

Weldon Link

Corby Link Road

Proposed Highw ay Scheme

2.8 Figure 2.2 depicts the future highway proposals within the Corby area. As can be seen, Corby is to be by-passed to the south via the Corby Link Road, and will also have new infrastructure to feed future developments. These assumptions are consistent with those incorporated within the Corby Transportation model.

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Developer Impacts – Wellingborough Town Centre Area Action Plan

TRIP MATRIX CHANGES

2.9 For the Do-Minimum network, it is assumed that all developments are included. If a planning application is conditional on proposed network changes then these changes have also been included in the network.

2.10 Alan Baxter & Associates, consultants for the Borough Council of Wellingborough, have requested that a number of changes be made to the Do-Minimum matrix which are summarised in Table 2.2.

Table 2.2 – Changes to 2021 Do-Minimum Matrix

Land Use Development Change

Residential Finedon Road Number of dwellings increased from 50 to 84.

Residential Hardwick Road Number of dwellings reduced from 60 to 40.

Residential Park Farm Way Number of dwellings reduced from 770 to 700.

Residential Townside Farm Development removed (99 dwellings).

Residential St John’s Street Development removed (60 dwellings).

Residential Wellingborough Development removed (750 dwellings). Town Centre

Commercial Park Farm Development reduced from 10ha to 0.49ha B1, 2ha B8, 3.93ha B1/B2/B8.

Retail Town Centre 17,674sqm GFA (assumed growth between 2006 and 2021) removed.

2.11 Assessments have been carried out ‘with’ and ‘without’ mode shift. This mode shift, applied to all land uses, equates to a 20% reduction in development single occupancy car trips and a 5% reduction in non-development single occupancy car trips.

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Developer Impacts – Wellingborough Town Centre Area Action Plan

3. Assessment of the Wellingborough Town Centre AAP

3.1 This section presents the assessment for the Wellingborough Town Centre AAP.

PREFERRED LAND USE OPTION

3.2 The preferred land use option for the Wellingborough Town Centre AAP has been assessed, with and without mode shift. This option consists of a range of land uses including residential, employment, retail, leisure and education. A table, provided by Alan Baxter & Associates, detailing the land use areas is provided in Appendix A.

HIGHWAY OPTIONS

3.3 Two highway scenarios have been assessed - the Baseline Scenario and Highway Option 5.

3.4 The Baseline Scenario includes the following highway schemes: ♦ North-South link to west of Midland Mainline; ♦ Midland Road / Senwick Road / Elsden Road – junction improvements; ♦ Link Road / Finedon Road – new roundabout; ♦ Queensway / Kingsway / Road – junction alterations; ♦ A45 / Bourton Way / A4500 (Junction 5) – junction alterations; ♦ A45 / A4500 / A509 (Junction 6) – junction alterations; ♦ A509 Isham Bypass; ♦ A509 Isham to Wellingborough Improvement Works (IWIMP); ♦ Midland Road Rail Bridge; ♦ Dualling of the A509 Western Bypass (from the junction with IWIMP to the A4500); and ♦ Church Street pedestrian crossing and speed reduction. 3.5 Additional highway schemes for Highway Option 5 are summarised in Table 3.1.

Table 3.1 - Highway Options – Additional Schemes

Highway Option Additional Schemes

Five ♦ Church Street Bus Only; ♦ New link connecting Herriotts Lane and Alma Street;and ♦ Improvements to Midland Road / Victoria Road junction.

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Developer Impacts – Wellingborough Town Centre Area Action Plan

3.6 Further details of the modelled highway scenarios, including scheme plans, are provided in Appendix B. These plans have been supplied by Alan Baxter & Associates.

TRIP RATES AND FLOW

3.7 Trips rates used for the proposed developments have been derived from the TRICS database, based on developments similar in nature. Any amendment to the development plans may affect the trip generation and thus the development would need to be reassessed.

3.8 The assessment year for the Wellingborough Town Centre AAP is 2021.

3.9 Each land use has its own characteristics regarding the distribution and composition of its traffic. Some developments have higher rates of heavy goods vehicles than others. This has been considered and the level of HGVs has been calculated according to the land use. In the case of the Wellingborough Town Centre AAP development the percentage of HGV trips generated is assumed to be as shown in Table 3.2:

Table 3.2 - %HGV according to Land Use

Land Use %HGV

Residential 1% B1 – Office 2%

B2 – Industrial Unit 15%

B8 – Warehousing 40% Retail – Town Centre 3%

Hotel 3%

Community 3% Cinema 1%

College 1%

3.10 Tables showing the trip rates and predicted trip generation for the proposed land use options is included in Appendix C. These flows are expressed as total vehicles as opposed to passenger car units (PCU).

DISTRIBUTION OF FLOW

3.11 The traditional TA is typically centred on the development and does little to highlight any impacts on the wider network. The development of this strategic model enables the impacts on the wider network to be identified. This is particularly helpful when producing a strategy for an area as North Northamptonshire, which is forecast to see major developments and large increases in population.

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Developer Impacts – Wellingborough Town Centre Area Action Plan

3.12 The distribution of development trips in the North Northamptonshire model has been based on Journey to Work Census data collated as part of the study. This has provided a consistent and robust distribution for the development trips, and hence has been considered acceptable.

GLOBAL STATISTICS

3.13 Statistics have been provided in Appendix D for the Wellingborough area demonstrating the total vehicle hours, vehicle kilometres and average speed for each assessed scenario. A plan is provided showing the cordoned area that these statistics relate to.

JUNCTION TURNING MOVEMENT DEMAND FLOWS / STRESS LEVELS / AVERAGE QUEUES

3.14 Demand flows, volume over capacity (V/C) values and average queues have been provided in Appendix E for each turning movement at the following junctions: ♦ High Street / St John’s Street; ♦ Havelock Street / Park Road; ♦ Cannon Street / Regent Street; ♦ Cannon Street / Alma Street; ♦ Victoria Road / Midland Road; ♦ London Road / Castle Way; ♦ Sheep Street / Doddington Road; ♦ Silver Street / Oxford Street; ♦ High Street / Church Street; ♦ High Street / Queen Street; ♦ Westfield Road / Hardwick Road; ♦ Harrowden Road / Gold Street; ♦ Finedon Road / Cross Road; ♦ Midland Road / Castle Street; ♦ London Road / Road; ♦ Doddington Road / Croyland Road; ♦ Oxford Street / Croyland Road; and ♦ Bounds Green.

LINK DEMAND FLOWS

3.15 Traffic demand flows have been provided in Appendix F for all links in the Wellingborough area. These diagrams have been supplied in pdf format so that the values can be viewed on a display screen by zooming in.

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Developer Impacts – Wellingborough Town Centre Area Action Plan

LINK STRESS LEVELS

3.16 Link stress levels (V/C’s) have been provided in Appendix G for all links in the Wellingborough area. These diagrams have been supplied in pdf format so that the values can be viewed on a display screen by zooming in.

JOURNEY TIMES

3.17 Journey times have been provided in Appendix H for the following routes: ♦ Junction of Oxford Street / Croyland Road to Swansgate; ♦ Junction of Harrowden Road / Gold Street to Wellingborough Station; ♦ Junction of Finedon Road / Cross Road to Morrison’s (Sharman Road); ♦ Junction of London Road / Irthlingborough Road to Tresham College (Church Street); ♦ Circular route starting and ending at junction of Silver Street / Oxford Street for buses via Church Street / Market Street / Midland Road / Castle Way; and ♦ Circular route starting and ending at junction of Silver Street / Oxford Street for cars via Victoria Road / Castle Way.

TOWN CENTRE THROUGH-TRAFFIC

3.18 The town centre has been cordoned and the traffic movements analysed to determine the proportion of through-traffic. The proportion of through-traffic for the assessed scenarios is given in Table 3.3.

Table 3.3 – Through-Traffic

Scenario Proportion of Through Traffic

AM Peak PM Peak

Baseline Scenario with mode shift 38% 27%

Baseline Scenario without mode shift 38% 27% Highway Option 5 with mode shift 39% 29%

Highway Option 5 without mode shift 39% 29%

3.19 Tables showing the movement of trips to, from and through the town centre from the north, south, east and west for each of the assessed scenarios are included in Appendix I.

TRIP SUPPRESSION

3.20 A table showing the number of trips in the trip matrix for each scenario, before and after elastic assignment, and the percentage change is included in Appendix J.

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Developer Impacts – Wellingborough Town Centre Area Action Plan

4. Summary

4.1 This report has outlined the results of the Wellingborough Town Centre Area Action Plan model tests and has been undertaken for the Borough Council of Wellingborough and Alan Baxter & Associates. This study has considered the impact of the preferred land use option, with and without mode shift, with two highway scenarios.

4.2 All results have been presented in the attached appendices or in pdf format on the accompanying CD.

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