Markov Chain Approximation of Pure Jump Processes 3
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Numerical Solution of Jump-Diffusion LIBOR Market Models
Finance Stochast. 7, 1–27 (2003) c Springer-Verlag 2003 Numerical solution of jump-diffusion LIBOR market models Paul Glasserman1, Nicolas Merener2 1 403 Uris Hall, Graduate School of Business, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA (e-mail: [email protected]) 2 Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA (e-mail: [email protected]) Abstract. This paper develops, analyzes, and tests computational procedures for the numerical solution of LIBOR market models with jumps. We consider, in par- ticular, a class of models in which jumps are driven by marked point processes with intensities that depend on the LIBOR rates themselves. While this formulation of- fers some attractive modeling features, it presents a challenge for computational work. As a first step, we therefore show how to reformulate a term structure model driven by marked point processes with suitably bounded state-dependent intensities into one driven by a Poisson random measure. This facilitates the development of discretization schemes because the Poisson random measure can be simulated with- out discretization error. Jumps in LIBOR rates are then thinned from the Poisson random measure using state-dependent thinning probabilities. Because of discon- tinuities inherent to the thinning process, this procedure falls outside the scope of existing convergence results; we provide some theoretical support for our method through a result establishing first and second order convergence of schemes that accommodates thinning but imposes stronger conditions on other problem data. The bias and computational efficiency of various schemes are compared through numerical experiments. Key words: Interest rate models, Monte Carlo simulation, market models, marked point processes JEL Classification: G13, E43 Mathematics Subject Classification (1991): 60G55, 60J75, 65C05, 90A09 The authors thank Professor Steve Kou for helpful comments and discussions. -
Superprocesses and Mckean-Vlasov Equations with Creation of Mass
Sup erpro cesses and McKean-Vlasov equations with creation of mass L. Overb eck Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley, 367, Evans Hall Berkeley, CA 94720, y U.S.A. Abstract Weak solutions of McKean-Vlasov equations with creation of mass are given in terms of sup erpro cesses. The solutions can b e approxi- mated by a sequence of non-interacting sup erpro cesses or by the mean- eld of multityp e sup erpro cesses with mean- eld interaction. The lat- ter approximation is asso ciated with a propagation of chaos statement for weakly interacting multityp e sup erpro cesses. Running title: Sup erpro cesses and McKean-Vlasov equations . 1 Intro duction Sup erpro cesses are useful in solving nonlinear partial di erential equation of 1+ the typ e f = f , 2 0; 1], cf. [Dy]. Wenowchange the p oint of view and showhowtheyprovide sto chastic solutions of nonlinear partial di erential Supp orted byanFellowship of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft. y On leave from the Universitat Bonn, Institut fur Angewandte Mathematik, Wegelerstr. 6, 53115 Bonn, Germany. 1 equation of McKean-Vlasovtyp e, i.e. wewant to nd weak solutions of d d 2 X X @ @ @ + d x; + bx; : 1.1 = a x; t i t t t t t ij t @t @x @x @x i j i i=1 i;j =1 d Aweak solution = 2 C [0;T];MIR satis es s Z 2 t X X @ @ a f = f + f + d f + b f ds: s ij s t 0 i s s @x @x @x 0 i j i Equation 1.1 generalizes McKean-Vlasov equations of twodi erenttyp es. -
A Switching Self-Exciting Jump Diffusion Process for Stock Prices Donatien Hainaut, Franck Moraux
A switching self-exciting jump diffusion process for stock prices Donatien Hainaut, Franck Moraux To cite this version: Donatien Hainaut, Franck Moraux. A switching self-exciting jump diffusion process for stock prices. Annals of Finance, Springer Verlag, 2019, 15 (2), pp.267-306. 10.1007/s10436-018-0340-5. halshs- 01909772 HAL Id: halshs-01909772 https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01909772 Submitted on 31 Oct 2018 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. A switching self-exciting jump diusion process for stock prices Donatien Hainaut∗ ISBA, Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium Franck Morauxy Univ. Rennes 1 and CREM May 25, 2018 Abstract This study proposes a new Markov switching process with clustering eects. In this approach, a hidden Markov chain with a nite number of states modulates the parameters of a self-excited jump process combined to a geometric Brownian motion. Each regime corresponds to a particular economic cycle determining the expected return, the diusion coecient and the long-run frequency of clustered jumps. We study rst the theoretical properties of this process and we propose a sequential Monte-Carlo method to lter the hidden state variables. -
On Two Dimensional Markov Processes with Branching Property^)
ON TWO DIMENSIONAL MARKOV PROCESSES WITH BRANCHING PROPERTY^) BY SHINZO WATANABE Introduction. A continuous state branching Markov process (C.B.P.) was introduced by Jirina [8] and recently Lamperti [10] determined all such processes on the half line. (A quite similar result was obtained independently by the author.) This class of Markov processes contains as a special case the diffusion processes (which we shall call Feller's diffusions) studied by Feller [2]. The main objective of the present paper is to extend Lamperti's result to multi-dimensional case. For simplicity we shall consider the case of 2-dimensions though many arguments can be carried over to the case of higher dimensions(2). In Theorem 2 below we shall characterize all C.B.P.'s in the first quadrant of a plane and construct them. Our construction is in an analytic way, by a similar construction given in Ikeda, Nagasawa and Watanabe [5], through backward equations (or in the terminology of [5] through S-equations) for a simpler case and then in the general case by a limiting procedure. A special attention will be paid to the case of diffusions. We shall show that these diffusions can be obtained as a unique solution of a stochastic equation of Ito (Theorem 3). This fact may be of some interest since the solutions of a stochastic equation with coefficients Holder continuous of exponent 1/2 (which is our case) are not known to be unique in general. Next we shall examine the behavior of sample functions near the boundaries (xj-axis or x2-axis). -
Particle Filtering-Based Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Financial Parameter Estimation
View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Spiral - Imperial College Digital Repository Particle Filtering-based Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Financial Parameter Estimation Jinzhe Yang Binghuan Lin Wayne Luk Terence Nahar Imperial College & SWIP Techila Technologies Ltd Imperial College SWIP London & Edinburgh, UK Tampere University of Technology London, UK London, UK [email protected] Tampere, Finland [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Abstract—This paper presents a novel method for estimating result, which cannot meet runtime requirement in practice. In parameters of financial models with jump diffusions. It is a addition, high performance computing (HPC) technologies are Particle Filter based Maximum Likelihood Estimation process, still new to the finance industry. We provide a PF based MLE which uses particle streams to enable efficient evaluation of con- straints and weights. We also provide a CPU-FPGA collaborative solution to estimate parameters of jump diffusion models, and design for parameter estimation of Stochastic Volatility with we utilise HPC technology to speedup the estimation scheme Correlated and Contemporaneous Jumps model as a case study. so that it would be acceptable for practical use. The result is evaluated by comparing with a CPU and a cloud This paper presents the algorithm development, as well computing platform. We show 14 times speed up for the FPGA as the pipeline design solution in FPGA technology, of PF design compared with the CPU, and similar speedup but better convergence compared with an alternative parallelisation scheme based MLE for parameter estimation of Stochastic Volatility using Techila Middleware on a multi-CPU environment. -
Long Term Risk: a Martingale Approach
Long Term Risk: A Martingale Approach Likuan Qin∗ and Vadim Linetskyy Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Sciences McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Sciences Northwestern University Abstract This paper extends the long-term factorization of the pricing kernel due to Alvarez and Jermann (2005) in discrete time ergodic environments and Hansen and Scheinkman (2009) in continuous ergodic Markovian environments to general semimartingale environments, with- out assuming the Markov property. An explicit and easy to verify sufficient condition is given that guarantees convergence in Emery's semimartingale topology of the trading strate- gies that invest in T -maturity zero-coupon bonds to the long bond and convergence in total variation of T -maturity forward measures to the long forward measure. As applications, we explicitly construct long-term factorizations in generally non-Markovian Heath-Jarrow- Morton (1992) models evolving the forward curve in a suitable Hilbert space and in the non-Markovian model of social discount of rates of Brody and Hughston (2013). As a fur- ther application, we extend Hansen and Jagannathan (1991), Alvarez and Jermann (2005) and Bakshi and Chabi-Yo (2012) bounds to general semimartingale environments. When Markovian and ergodicity assumptions are added to our framework, we recover the long- term factorization of Hansen and Scheinkman (2009) and explicitly identify their distorted probability measure with the long forward measure. Finally, we give an economic interpre- tation of the recovery theorem of Ross (2013) in non-Markovian economies as a structural restriction on the pricing kernel leading to the growth optimality of the long bond and iden- tification of the physical measure with the long forward measure. -
A Short History of Stochastic Integration and Mathematical Finance
A Festschrift for Herman Rubin Institute of Mathematical Statistics Lecture Notes – Monograph Series Vol. 45 (2004) 75–91 c Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2004 A short history of stochastic integration and mathematical finance: The early years, 1880–1970 Robert Jarrow1 and Philip Protter∗1 Cornell University Abstract: We present a history of the development of the theory of Stochastic Integration, starting from its roots with Brownian motion, up to the introduc- tion of semimartingales and the independence of the theory from an underlying Markov process framework. We show how the development has influenced and in turn been influenced by the development of Mathematical Finance Theory. The calendar period is from 1880 to 1970. The history of stochastic integration and the modelling of risky asset prices both begin with Brownian motion, so let us begin there too. The earliest attempts to model Brownian motion mathematically can be traced to three sources, each of which knew nothing about the others: the first was that of T. N. Thiele of Copen- hagen, who effectively created a model of Brownian motion while studying time series in 1880 [81].2; the second was that of L. Bachelier of Paris, who created a model of Brownian motion while deriving the dynamic behavior of the Paris stock market, in 1900 (see, [1, 2, 11]); and the third was that of A. Einstein, who proposed a model of the motion of small particles suspended in a liquid, in an attempt to convince other physicists of the molecular nature of matter, in 1905 [21](See [64] for a discussion of Einstein’s model and his motivations.) Of these three models, those of Thiele and Bachelier had little impact for a long time, while that of Einstein was immediately influential. -
Llogl Condition for Supercritical Branching Hunt Processes
J Theor Probab (2011) 24: 170–193 DOI 10.1007/s10959-010-0322-7 L log L Condition for Supercritical Branching Hunt Processes Rong-Li Liu · Yan-Xia Ren · Renming Song Received: 17 March 2009 / Revised: 17 July 2010 / Published online: 19 October 2010 © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2010 Abstract In this paper we use the spine decomposition and martingale change of measure to establish a Kesten–Stigum L log L theorem for branching Hunt processes. This result is a generalization of the results in Asmussen and Hering (Z. Wahrschein- lichkeitstheor. Verw. Geb. 36:195–212, 1976) and Hering (Branching Processes, pp. 177–217, 1978) for branching diffusions. Keywords Hunt processes · Branching Hunt processes · Kesten–Stigum theorem · Martingales · Martingale change of measure Mathematics Subject Classification (2000) Primary 60J80 · 60F15 · Secondary 60J25 1 Introduction Suppose that {Zn; n ≥ 1} is a Galton–Watson process with each particle having prob- ability pn of giving birth to n offspring. Let L stand for a random variable with this := ∞ offspring distribution. Let m n=1 npn be the mean number of offspring per par- n n ticle. Then Zn/m is a non-negative martingale. Let W be the limit of Zn/m as The research of Y.-X. Ren was supported by NSFC (Grant No. 10871103 and 10971003). R.-L. Liu · Y.-X. Ren LMAM School of Mathematical Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, P.R. China R.-L. Liu e-mail: [email protected] Y.-X. Ren e-mail: [email protected] R. Song () Department of Mathematics, The University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801, USA e-mail: [email protected] J Theor Probab (2011) 24: 170–193 171 n →∞. -
Strong Law of Large Numbers for Supercritical Superprocesses Under Second Moment Condition
Front. Math. China 2015, 10(4): 807–838 DOI 10.1007/s11464-015-0482-y Strong law of large numbers for supercritical superprocesses under second moment condition Zhen-Qing CHEN1, Yan-Xia REN2, Renming SONG3, Rui ZHANG4 1 Department of Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA 2 LMAM School of Mathematical Sciences & Center for Statistical Science, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China 3 Department of Mathematics, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801, USA 4 LMAM School of Mathematical Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China c Higher Education Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015 Abstract Consider a supercritical superprocess X = {Xt,t 0} on a locally compact separable metric space (E,m). Suppose that the spatial motion of X is a Hunt process satisfying certain conditions and that the branching mechanism is of the form ψ(x, λ)=−a(x)λ + b(x)λ2 + (e−λy − 1+λy)n(x, dy),x∈ E, λ > 0, (0,+∞) ∈ B ∈ B+ ∞ where a b(E),b b (E), and n is a kernel from E to (0, + ) +∞ 2 ∞ P satisfying supx∈E 0 y n(x, dy) < + . Put Ttf(x)= δx f,Xt . Suppose that the semigroup {Tt; t 0} is compact. Let λ0 be the eigenvalue of the (possibly non-symmetric) generator L of {Tt} that has the largest real part among all the eigenvalues of L, which is known to be real-valued. Let φ0 and φ0 be the eigenfunctions of L and L (the dual of L) associated with λ0, respectively. Assume λ0 > 0. Under some conditions on the spatial motion and the φ0-transform of the semigroup {Tt}, we prove that for a large class of suitable functions f, −λ0t lim e f,Xt = W∞ φ0(y)f(y)m(dy), Pμ-a.s., t→+∞ E for any finite initial measure μ on E with compact support, where W∞ is −λ t the martingale limit defined by W∞ := limt→+∞ e 0 φ0,Xt. -
Classical Limit Theorems for Measure-Valued Markov Processes
CORE Metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk Provided by Elsevier - Publisher Connector JOURNAL OF MULTIVARIA’IX ANALYSIS 9,234-247 (1979) Classical Limit Theorems for Measure-Valued Markov Processes ALANF.KhRR The Johns Hopkins University Communicated by A. Dwretzky Laws of large numbers, central liiit theorems, and laws of the iterated logarithm are obtained for discrete and continuous time Markov processes whose state space is a set of measures. These results apply to each measure- valued stochastic process itself and not simply to its real-valued functionals. 1. INTRODUCTION In this note we derive classicallimit theorems for Markov chains and Markov processestaking values in a set of measures.The results obtained are strong laws of large numbers, central limit theorems, and laws of the iterated logarithm for the processesthemselves, rather than only for functionals thereof. Of course, the latter classof results follows from those presented here. Our notation and terminology are those of [3]. We denote by E a LCCB space, by 8 the Bore1 u-algebra on E, by C, the Banach space of continuous real-valued functions on E vanishing at infinity and by C, the family of those functions in C, with compact support. Denote by K+ the family of finite measureson B and let K = K+ - K+ . Then, cf. [3, p. 91, K = C$; .f shall denote the Bore1 u-algebra on K generated by the weak* topology induced on K by C’s. The notation m(f) = Jf d m is used frequently below. Stochastic processeswith state spaceK+ we think of as measure-valued. -
An Infinite Hidden Markov Model with Similarity-Biased Transitions
An Infinite Hidden Markov Model With Similarity-Biased Transitions Colin Reimer Dawson 1 Chaofan Huang 1 Clayton T. Morrison 2 Abstract ing a “stick” off of the remaining weight according to a Beta (1; γ) distribution. The parameter γ > 0 is known We describe a generalization of the Hierarchical as the concentration parameter and governs how quickly Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP- the weights tend to decay, with large γ corresponding to HMM) which is able to encode prior informa- slow decay, and hence more weights needed before a given tion that state transitions are more likely be- cumulative weight is reached. This stick-breaking process tween “nearby” states. This is accomplished is denoted by GEM (Ewens, 1990; Sethuraman, 1994) for by defining a similarity function on the state Griffiths, Engen and McCloskey. We thus have a discrete space and scaling transition probabilities by pair- probability measure, G , with weights β at locations θ , wise similarities, thereby inducing correlations 0 j j j = 1; 2;::: , defined by among the transition distributions. We present an augmented data representation of the model i.i.d. θj ∼ H β ∼ GEM(γ): (1) as a Markov Jump Process in which: (1) some jump attempts fail, and (2) the probability of suc- G0 drawn in this way is a Dirichlet Process (DP) random cess is proportional to the similarity between the measure with concentration γ and base measure H. source and destination states. This augmenta- The actual transition distribution, πj, from state j, is drawn tion restores conditional conjugacy and admits a from another DP with concentration α and base measure simple Gibbs sampler. -
Final Report (PDF)
Foundation of Stochastic Analysis Krzysztof Burdzy (University of Washington) Zhen-Qing Chen (University of Washington) Takashi Kumagai (Kyoto University) September 18-23, 2011 1 Scientific agenda of the conference Over the years, the foundations of stochastic analysis included various specific topics, such as the general theory of Markov processes, the general theory of stochastic integration, the theory of martingales, Malli- avin calculus, the martingale-problem approach to Markov processes, and the Dirichlet form approach to Markov processes. To create some focus for the very broad topic of the conference, we chose a few areas of concentration, including • Dirichlet forms • Analysis on fractals and percolation clusters • Jump type processes • Stochastic partial differential equations and measure-valued processes Dirichlet form theory provides a powerful tool that connects the probabilistic potential theory and ana- lytic potential theory. Recently Dirichlet forms found its use in effective study of fine properties of Markov processes on spaces with minimal smoothness, such as reflecting Brownian motion on non-smooth domains, Brownian motion and jump type processes on Euclidean spaces and fractals, and Markov processes on trees and graphs. It has been shown that Dirichlet form theory is an important tool in study of various invariance principles, such as the invariance principle for reflected Brownian motion on domains with non necessarily smooth boundaries and the invariance principle for Metropolis algorithm. Dirichlet form theory can also be used to study a certain type of SPDEs. Fractals are used as an approximation of disordered media. The analysis on fractals is motivated by the desire to understand properties of natural phenomena such as polymers, and growth of molds and crystals.