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World Bank Document Document of P' n -a The World Bank FILE Cury FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Public Disclosure Authorized Report No. 1 922-JO STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT Public Disclosure Authorized JORDAN THE ARAB POTASH PROJECT Public Disclosure Authorized August 11, 1978 Public Disclosure Authorized Industrial Projects Department This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUITALENTS (As of December 31, 1977) 1,000 Fils = 1 Jordanian Dinar (JD) JD 1.00 = US$3.03 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 Metric ton (t) = 1,000 Kilograms (kg) 1 Metric ton (t) = 2,204.6 Pounds 1 Kilometer (km) 2 = 0.62 Miles 1 Square Kilometer (km ) = 0.38 Square Miles PRINCIPAL ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS USED AFESD Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development AGP Sir Alexander Gibb & Partners AID United States Agency for International Development APC Arab Potash Company DSW Dead Sea Works FOB Free on Board GOJ Government of Jordan JEA Jordan Electricity Authority JEC Jacobs Engineering Company JII Jacobs International Inc. JPR Jordan Petroleum Refinery Company KCI Potassium Chloride (Muriate of Potash) KFED Kuwait Fund for Economic Development K 0 Potassium Oxide LiFB Libyan Arab Foreign Bank tpy Metric tons per year FISCAL YEAR January 1 to December 31 JORDAN FOROFFICIAL USE ONLY STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT OF THE ARAB POTASH PROJECT TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. I. INTRODUCTION .............................................. 1 A. Background ........................................... 1 B. Project History ...................................... 1 II. THE ARAB POTASH COMPANY .. 3 III. THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR IN JORDAN .... ............. 4 IV. THE WORLD POTASH INDUSTRY AND MARKET .... ........... 6 A. Background. 6 B. Historical World Consumption of Potash .... ........... 7 C. Historical Capacity and Production Growth .... ........ 9 D. Projected Potash Demand and Supply Balance .10 E. Historical and Projected Potash Prices .... ...........10 V. THE MARKETING OF JORDANIAN POTASH ......................... 14 VI. THE PROJECT ............................................... 19 A. Project Location and Scope ........................... 19 B. Production Process and Technology .................... 20 C. The Township ......................................... 25 D. Utilities and Raw Materials ........................... 26 E. Ecology .............. 28 VII. TRANSPORTATION AND PORT FACILITIES ........................ 28 A. Inland Transportation ................................ 28 B. Port Facilities ...................................... 29 VIII. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION AND INITIAL OPERATION ...... ........ 30 A. Organization and Management for Project Execution .... 30 1. Project Management .............................. 31 2. Supervision ..................................... 32 3. Financial Matters ............................... 32 4. Operations Management ........................... 32 B. Project Implementation Schedule ........ .. ............33 IX. CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE AND FINANCING PLAN .... ..............36 A. Capital Costs ........................................ 36 B. Financing Plan ....................................... 38 C. Procurement .......................................... 40 D. Allocation and Disbursement of Bank Loan .... .........42 This report was prepared by Messrs. Edilberto Segura, Jiro Kuroda and Edouard Siou of the Industrial Projects Department. This document has a restricteddistribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of theirofficial duties. Its contentsmay not otherwisebe disclosedwithout World Bank authorization. TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Page No. X. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS . ................... ...... ....... 42 A. Revenues and Operating Costs ............ .. ............ 42 B. Financial Projections ....... .................... 44 C. Financial Covenants ................. .................... *..*. 45 D. Financial Rate of Return and Sensitivity Analysis .... 46 E. Major Risks .. **....................................... 46 XI. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS .......... ..................................... 48 A. Economic Costs and Benefits .......................... 48 B. Economic Rate of Return ...... .......... .......... 48 C. Competitive Position of APC ..... .....................48 D. Other Benefits ...... .... *...... .. .. .. ........... 50 XII. AGREEMENTS ................................................ 51 ANINEXES 1 The Pilot Project 2 APC's Current Organization 4-1 World Potash Reserves & Effective Capacity 1976/77 4-2 World Potash Capacity & Capacity Utilization 1971-77 4-3 Historical Potash Prices 1955-1977 6-1 Brief Description of Refinery Process 6-2 Township Layout 8-1 Scope of Work - Technical Advisory Firm 8-2 Terms of Reference - Financial Control & Accounting System 9-1 Capital Cost Estimates 9-2 Permanent Working Capital 9-3 Disbursement Schedule 10-1 Projected Prices of APC's Potash (FOB Aqaba) 10-2 Production and Transportation Cost 10-3 Assumed Terms & Conditions of Loans 10-4 Financial Projections (Normal Schedule) 10-5 Financial Projections (One Year Delay in Project Completion) 10-6 Profit & Cash Breakeven Capacity Utilization 10-7 Financial Rate of Return 11-1 Economic Rate of Return 11-2 Foreign Exchange Earnings 11-3 Fiscal Impact of the Project MAPS IBRD 13362 R Project Layout IBRD 3078 R2 Project Location DOCUMENTS AVAILABLE IN THE PROJECT FILE Reference Title, Date and Authors A Preliminary Feasibility Report - December 1976 Prepared by Jacobs International Inc., Sir Alexander Gibb and Technical Services Office B Final Feasibility Report - February 1978 Prepared by Jacobs International Inc., Sir Alexander Gibb and Technical Services Office C Arab Potash Company Concession Agreement (Law No. 16-1958) - February 4, 1958 Granted by the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan D Draft World Potash Survey - January 1978 Prepared by Industrial Projects Department, World Bank E Engineering Services Agreement and Subcontracts - November 5, 1977 between Arab Potash Company and Jacobs International Inc., and Sir Alexander Gibb and Partners F Operation Plans for Training, Start-up and Operations of APC Potash Production facilities - 1977 and 1978. Proposals Submitted by Jacobs International Inc. G Detailed Capital Cost Estimates for Arab Potash Project - February 1978. Prepared by Jacobs International Inc. JORDAN APPRAISAL OF ARAB POTASH PROJECT I. INTRODUCTION A. Background 1.01 The Government of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan has requested World Bank financing for the proposed Arab Potash Fertilizer project (the Project) aimed at producing 1.2 million metric tons per year (tpy) of potash (potassium chloride or muriate of potash - KCl), equivalent to 0.72 million tpy of K 20, by solar evaporation of Dead Sea brine. The Project will be located in the southern basin of the Dead Sea (Map IBRD-3078 R2). Its output will be exported principally to countries in the Indian Subcontinent, East Asia and Pacific Oceania, and to the US. This report presents the main findings of the Bank mission, consisting of Messrs. Harinder Kohli, Edilberto Segura, Jiro Kuroda, Christopher Pratt and Edouard Siou, who visited Jordan in November 1977 to review the proposed Project. It is based on information obtained by the mission from the Arab Potash Company (APC or the Company), that contained in the feasibility report of February 1978 prepared by APC's consultants Jacobs International Inc. (JII) of the US and Sir Alexander Gibb and Partners (AGP) of the UK, and discussions with the Company and the consultants. 1.02 The Project will be owned and operated by APC, a Jordanian company majority-owned by the Jordanian Government. APC's shareholders will contri- bute US$193 million equivalent in equity, representing 45% of the estimated total project financing requirements of US$429 million. The proposed World Bank loan of US$35 million equivalent will be the first Bank loan to Jordan and will cover about 8% of such financing needs and approximately 11% of total foreign exchange requirements calculated at US$310 million. Concessionary debt financing has been arranged from a number of bilateral and regional financing institutions, including Kuwait Fund for Economic Development (KFED), US$35 million; the Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development (AFESD), US$15 million; the Libyan Government through the Libyan Arab Foreign Bank (LAFB), US$50 million; OPEC Fund, US$7 million; and the United States Agency for International Development (AID), US$38 million. The Government of Jordan proposes to obtain commercial loans of about US$20 million to complete the financing plan. B. Project History 1.03 The proposed Project is designed to exploit one of the few large physical resources available to Jordan - the Dead Sea brine - which is rich in minerals and salts, including potash. It will be the largest single industrial project ever undertaken in the country and represents a successful culmination of efforts going back many years. The Project may be followed by others to commercially extract from the Dead Sea other valuable elements such as bromine and magnesium. Recovery of Dead Sea potash on the basis of solar evaporation of brine was started about 1930 by the now defunct Palestine Potash Ltd. By 1945, after expansions, annual production reached 100,000 - 2 - tons, but in 1948, the north-end facilities were damaged and those in the south were abandoned as a result of hostilities. Subsequently, in 1952, Dead Sea Works Ltd. (DSW) was
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