The Impact of Remittances on Kyrgyzstan Economy Ph.D
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6 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON EURASIAN ECONOMIES 2012 The Impact of Remittances on Kyrgyzstan Economy Ph.D. Candidate Kiyalbek Akmoldoev (International Ataturk Alatoo University, Kyrgyzstan) Mrs. Aidai Budaichieva (International Ataturk-Alatoo University, Kyrgyzstan) Abstract Data of the worker’s remittance flow in the period of 2000-2010 were employed to analyze the impact of remittances on macroeconomic indicators of the Kyrgyz Republic. Focus was given to the assessment of remittance effect on economic effectiveness. To study the underlying issue, linear correlation method and economic performance effectiveness index were used. Results showed that great portion of remittances has been directed into consumption rather than to investment. Moreover, remittance spending is channeled into consumption of imported goods, thus raising the trade deficit of a country. Their impact on economic effectiveness of Kyrgyzstan presents that given the low propensity to invest, they finance consumption and cause high consumption ratio with respect to investment ratio, thus leading to reduction of economic effectiveness. JEL codes: F22, O15, F36 1 Introduction Remittances — funds sent by migrant workers to their relatives in home countries — are an increasingly important source of external finance for low income countries especially for the many small economies. The officially recorded inflow of remittances to developing economies has grown from $56 billion in 1995 to $334 billion in 2010 (World Bank 2010). For some countries, remittances can be as high as a half of GDP. Remittances also now account for about a third of total global external finance; moreover, the flow of remittances seems to be significantly more stable than that of other forms of external finance. The concept of remittances derives from the theories of migration of various economic though (developmentalists, structuralists, New Economics of Labor Migration), that have different viewpoints on migration and remittances. Given framework of the above mentioned theories a great deal of academic studies had been conducted on impact of remittance on economy. The participation of Kyrgyzstan in labor migration process with CIS and other foreign countries is aligned with export of labor. The process of labor migration in Kyrgyzstan emerged as a result of transformation process into market economy. According to different estimates there are more than 950 thousand Kyrgyz citizens are working overseas. Official central bank statistics show significant amounts remittances being transferred —up to 28.8% of GDP in the Kyrgyz Republic. However, very little is known about the structure of remittance flows in terms of channels of remittance transfers and, perhaps more importantly, effects of remittances on economy. This lack of information prevents both governments and financial institution from responding with policy changes to increase remittance inflows and their positive effects on socio-economic development and poverty reduction. The research analyzes the volume of remittances of Kyrgyz migrant laborers made from abroad and their impact on macroeconomic indicators of the country. The key question of concern for study is: Do remittances contribute to sustained improvements in economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic? The two main questions of interest to policymakers with regard to remittances are: How to manage the macroeconomic effects of remittances? How to harness the development potential of remittances? The aim of the study is to examine an impact of remittances on economy of Kyrgyzstan. To explore the topic of concern the following tasks are proposed: • To determine the nature and causes of remittances and their macroeconomic impact • To analyze the magnitude of remittances and their impact on macroeconomic indices and economic effectiveness of Kyrgyzstan. • To determine problems of remittances in current conditions of Kyrgyzstan • To present a role of policymakers in macroeconomic management of remittances and suggest some policy implications 2 Macroeconomic Impact of Remittances Macroeconomic studies indicate that although migrants’ remittances are affected by the economic cycles of source and host countries, they often provide a significant source of foreign currency, finance imports and contribute to the balance of payment, increase national income. Perhaps the most common reason for skepticism on migration and development has been the widespread belief that migrants rarely invest their money in productive enterprises, but instead spend it on consumption or non- productive investments (Massey et al. 1998; Adams 1991; Taylor 1999; Woodruff and Zenteno 2007). Besides, if SESSION 1A: Growth & Development 7 spent on imported consumer goods rather than locally produced ones, the potential multiplier effect may decrease while simultaneously increasing import demand and inflation. This has the effect of making exports less competitive, while stimulating imports. However, most studies seem to suggest that households receiving international remittances have a higher propensity to invest than non-migrant households when controlling for income and other relevant household variables. Other case studies indicated signs that remittances may indeed have served to accelerate investment in Morocco and perhaps in India. More generally, Glytsos (2001) estimates a simple dynamic, simultaneous model of aggregate investments, consumption, imports and the feedback of these components through GDP, for seven Mediterranean countries from about 1969 to 1993. Simulating the direct and indirect effects of remittances on incomes and hence on investment through this framework, Glytsos finds that over a six year period investment rises with remittances in six out of the seven countries, and in four of these investment rises by more than the initial amount remitted . The impact of remittances can be explored along pricing of goods. Sudden riches can create many problems for an economy, and remittance-driven gains are no exception. Remittances are foreign-earned money that can raise the cost of goods in the recipient-country. The recipient country has not increased production, yet there is more money in circulation owing to the remittances; hence, prices rise. If the nation-state is seen in isolation, then such price increases owe themselves not to any improvement in the economy, but to an exogenous— arguably false—increase in purchasing power. Recipient economies flush with remittance money become vulnerable both to inflation, particularly harmful to those not receiving remittances, and, through labor reduction, to falling exports as the economy reacts to the increased remittances . Large remittance inflows, like any large influx of foreign currency, can lead to appreciation of the local currency. Hence, an appreciation of the exchange rate generates a resource allocation from the tradable to the no tradable sector. This phenomenon is usually labeled as the «Dutch disease». To date, the empirical evidence of the impact of remittances on economic growth appears mixed. For instance, results for a sample of 39 developing countries covering the period 1980–2004 indicate a positive impact on economic growth. A study examining the aggregate impact of remittances on the economic growth of 18 Latin American countries for the period 1980–2005 found that remittances positively and significantly affected the growth of Latin American economies where the financial systems are less developed by providing an alternative way to finance investment and helping overcome liquidity constraints. On the other hand, empirical assessments on the impact of workers’ remittances on growth and poverty reduction in developing Asia-Pacific countries for the period 1993–2003 found that, “while remittances do have a significant impact on poverty reduction through increasing income, smoothing consumption and easing capital constraints of the poor, they have only a marginal impact on growth operating through domestic investment and human capital development”. While not denying the poverty alleviating and consumption smoothing effects of remittances on recipient households, other studies find no impact on economic growth (UNESC, 2010). 2.1 Theoretical underpinnings of remittances When remittances constitute a significant source of foreign exchange, they may clearly affect the equilibrium level of the gross national product and other macroeconomic variables. Possible theoretical treatment of remittances was made by Kireyev, while analyzing the impact of remittances on economy of Tajikistan. He suggested the Keynesian approach to describe effect of remittances on macroeconomic indicators (Kireev, 2006). 2.2 The Keynesian model Driven by remittances, an increase in income and therefore demand has a magnified effect on real GDP growth. The magnification depends on the multiplier and the size of remittances. The multiplier itself depends on marginal propensities to import and to save. In the classic Keynesian model investment (I) and exports (X) are completely autonomous from the level of output (Y). Therefore, an increase in a country’s overall income by way of remittances (R) can be represented either as an autonomous increase in export receipts or as additional investment. Savings (S) and imports (M) consist of an autonomous component independent of Y, and an income induced component. In a spending-output space, where S and M are seen as leakages and I and X as injections, an additional inflow R will initially lead to an increase in equilibrium