Fertility Squeeze and Gender Bias: A Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis of Birth Planning Policy and Sex Ratio at Birth in China Juhua Yang Professor of Demography Center for Population and Development Studies Renmin University of China Beijing 100872, P. R. China
[email protected] [email protected] Cell phone: 15811206322 Abstract By adopting a multi-method approach, this paper examines the relationship between birth planning policy and sex ratio at birth in China. Analysis of focus group interview and in-depth interview data provides insights on how the policy restrictiveness generates fertility squeeze, and the 1.5-child policy exacerbates gender bias, both leaving people with son preference little choice but to abort female fetuses, particularly the second and higher order fetuses. Analytical results from 2000 prefecture-level and 2005 individual-level data depict an inverse U-shape relationship, while varying by parity, between policy and sex ratio at birth: it is the highest with the 1.5-child policy, followed by a strict one-child policy, and finally two-child policy. Aborting female fetuses meets both the policy demand to have few children and individual demand to have a son. A less restricitve policy without gender bias is, therefore, necessary, while insufficient, to facilitate this ratio back to normality. Keywords: Birth planning policy; Fertility squeeze; Gender bias; Sex ratio at birth; China 1 Since the early 1980s, a new phenomenon has emerged in the process of demographic transition among Asian countries or regions with son preference: sex ratio at birth (SRB) were abnormal at some points of time (e.g., Singapore, Korea and Taiwan) or still has been abnormal presently (e.g., Armenia, Azerbaijan, China, Georgia, India, Vietnam) (Mesle, Vallin, and Badurashvili 2007).