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Ige leads Gov race

The Democrat has strong support among Japanese-Americans, union families and seniors; many cite shared values and party affiliation

By Derrick DePledge

POSTED: 01:30 a.m. HST, Oct 23, 2014 LAST UPDATED: 03:32 a.m. HST, Oct 23, 2014

State Sen. David Ige has the advantage in the campaign for governor, a new Hawaii Poll shows, scoring well with Japanese-Americans, seniors and union families who are among the most likely to vote in November.

Ige, the Democrat, leads former Lt. Gov. James "Duke" Aiona, the Republican, 47 percent to 35 percent. Former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, the independent, is at 12 percent, while Jeff Davis, the Libertarian, is at 1 percent. Six percent remain undecided.

Nearly half of the voters who say they support Ige believe he shares their values or cite his party affiliation, suggesting that he is benefiting from the state's Democratic tradition. Just 15 percent said they had never heard of or do not know enough about Ige, down from 61 percent in February, when voters first began to view him as a credible alternative to Gov. Neil Abercrombie.

"With Ige, that's the only place that we really saw the role of party come up strongly," said Rebecca Ward, president of Ward Research Inc., which conducted the poll for the Honolulu Star-Advertiser and Hawaii News Now. "I believe this is a salute to the Democratic Party."

Both Hannemann and Davis have the potential to be spoilers. The poll found that Hannemann is drawing more from people who usually vote for Democrats — 61 percent, compared to 14 percent who usually vote Republican — which indicates that Ige would likely have an even larger lead without the former mayor in the mix.

The Hawaii Poll was taken from cellphone and landline interviews with 605 likely voters statewide from Oct. 11 to 18. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Most voters have a favorable impression of Ige (59 percent) and Aiona (56 percent), but only 39 percent view Hannemann favorably. Fifty percent have an unfavorable opinion of Hannemann, the worst of any of the dozen political candidates measured in the poll.

Voters have grown more comfortable with Ige since his historic upset over Abercrombie in the Democratic primary. In July, 46 percent said they were voting for Ige because they did not like Abercrombie. In the new poll, just 4 percent are backing Ige because they do not like the other candidates.

Page 1 of 5 Nov 04, 2014 01:49:53AM MST http://www.staradvertiser.com/newspremium/20141023__IGE_LEADS_GOVRACE.html?id=280159092

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Voters said Ige shares their values (24 percent), cited party affiliation (22 percent) or leadership experience (14 percent), and his stand on budget or other fiscal matters (10 percent).

Among Aiona voters, 43 percent said the former lieutenant governor shares their values, while 23 percent cited leadership experience.

In a positive for Hannemann, 57 percent of voters who support the former mayor cited his leadership experience, his dominant campaign theme.

The poll found that voters are not very familiar with the candidates for lieutenant governor.

Lt. Gov. Shan Tsutsui, Ige's running mate, had a 49 percent favorable rating, but 36 percent said they had never heard of or do not know enough about the Maui Democrat. Elwin Ahu, a former judge and a senior pastor at New Hope Metro who is Aiona's running mate, had a 19 percent favorable rating, but 70 percent had never heard of or did not know enough about him. Lester Chang, the former city parks director who is Hannemann's running mate, had an 8 percent favorable rating, but 77 percent had never heard of or did not know enough about him.

Ige's low-key personality and understated, stew-and-rice campaign style provided a dramatic contrast to the bombastic Abercrombie in the primary. Political analysts have characterized the primary as more of an Abercrombie loss than an Ige win, however, and some Democrats have been privately frustrated by a few of the tactical decisions of the Ige campaign.

The poll shows, though, that Ige is strong among Japanese-Americans, seniors and union families — demographic groups that consistently vote in higher proportion in Hawaii and tend to favor Democrats.

Ige and his allies believe the grass-roots approach is connecting with voters. Ige and Hannemann are the first major candidates for governor since Linda Lingle in 1998 to voluntarily agree to honor the $1.5 million state campaign-spending limit to qualify for public funds. (Lingle, a Republican who lost a close election to Gov. Ben Cayetano, exceeded the limit and had to repay $136,000 in matching funds.)

Neither Ige nor Hannemann met the threshold for public funds during the primary — raising $100,000 in contributions of $100 or less from local residents — but Ige said he has now hit the mark and will apply for the $160,000 in available matching funds for the general election.

Ige has been actively fundraising. He has held 15 fundraisers since the August primary, compared to seven before the primary. His homespun television advertisements have been complemented by edgier, darker ads by super PACs tied to the Democratic Governors Association and the National Education Association that are critical of Aiona.

"We're going to be working really hard. It's about how to stay engaged and keep people engaged," Ige said.

Page"I think2 of 5 that will be the challenge." Nov 04, 2014 01:49:53AM MST http://www.staradvertiser.com/newspremium/20141023__IGE_LEADS_GOVRACE.html?id=280159092 "I think that will be the challenge."

Other public and private polls have had Ige out front, but have hinted at a closer race with Aiona. Voter enthusiasm appears weaker than in previous elections for the state's highest office, so turnout could be a more important factor than usual in the split.

"I don't feel that the momentum has shifted on the ground," Aiona said. "I still feel like we have a lot of momentum going into November 4th. So, for us, we're still very much encouraged and spirited and the supporters are all fired up."

Hannemann said he believes his campaign has gained momentum from his performance in a televised debate this month sponsored by Hawaii News Now and the Star-Advertiser. "The poll does not reflect the surge in momentum that we have received since the Oct. 15 debate," he said in an email. "As we know, polls are not always accurate. The people have until Nov. 4 to decide who is best qualified to lead Hawaii forward."

Office of the Governor: Who Would You Vote For?

If the general election for governor and lieutenant governor were held today, who would you vote for:

David Ige and Shan Tsutsui 47% James "Duke" Aiona and Elwin Ahu35% Mufi Hannemann and Lester Chang12% Jeff Davis and Cynthia (Lahi) Marlin1% Don't know/Refused 6%

The poll was conducted among 605 likely voters statewide by telephone (landlines and cellphones) Oct. 11-18 by Ward Research Inc. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent. Numbers do not total 100% because of rounding.

Office of the Governor: Favorable or Unfavorable?

Please tell me if you have a basically favorable or unfavorable opinion, or if you have never heard of:

FavorableUnfavorableNever heard ofHeard but don't know enough Tsutsui 49% 15% 20% 16% Ige 59% 26% 3% 12% Aiona 56% 34% 2% 8% Hannemann39% 50% 2% 10% Davis 4% 13% 71% 12% Ahu 19% 11% 56% 14% Chang 8% 14% 60% 17% Martin 2% 6% 85% 7%

Page 3 of 5 Nov 04, 2014 01:49:53AM MST http://www.staradvertiser.com/newspremium/20141023__IGE_LEADS_GOVRACE.html?id=280159092 Office of the Governor: David Ige

Please tell me the primary reason that you're gong to vote for the following:

Values similar to yours 24% Party 22% Leadership experience 14% Stand on the budget or other fiscal issues 10% Personality or style 7% Endorsement from unions or other politicians5% Don't like the other candidates 4% I like his programs/I like his stand on issues 3% I like him/I know more about him 3% Stand on same-sex marriage <1% some other reason 1% don't know/refused 7%

The poll was conducted among 283 likely voters statewide by telephone (landlines and cellphones) Oct. 11-18 by Ward Research Inc. The margin of error is plus or minus 5.8 percent. Numbers do not total 100% because of rounding.

Office of the Governor: James "Duke" Aiona

Please tell me the primary reason that you're gong to vote for the following:

Values similar to yours 43% Leadership experience 23% Party 8% Personality or style 7% Stand on the budget or other fiscal issues 6% Stand on same-sex marriage 2% I like his programs/I like his stand on issues 2% I like him/I know more about him 2% Don't like the other candidates 2% Endorsement from unions or other politicians1% Some other reason <1% don't know/refused 3%

The poll was conducted among 211 likely voters statewide by telephone (landlines and cellphones) Oct. 11-18 by Ward Research Inc. The margin of error is plus or minus 6.7 percent.

Office of the Governor: Mufi Hannemann

Please tell me the primary reason that you're gong to vote for the following:

Leadership experience 57%

PageValues 4 of 5 similar to yours 16% Nov 04, 2014 01:49:53AM MST http://www.staradvertiser.com/newspremium/20141023__IGE_LEADS_GOVRACE.html?id=280159092 Values similar to yours 16% Personality or style 8% I like his programs/I like his stand on issues6% Don't like the other candidates 3% I like him/I know more about him 3% Stand on same-sex marriage 2% Stand on the budget or other fiscal issues 1% Party 1% Don't know/Refused 3%

The poll was conducted among 70 likely voters statewide by telephone (landlines and cellphones) Oct. 11-18 by Ward Research Inc. The margin of error is plus or minus 11.7 percent.

Office of the Governor: Jeff Davis

Please tell me the primary reason that you're gong to vote for the following:

Stand on the budget or other fiscal issues32% Values similar to yours 26% Party 19% Don't know/Refused 22%

The poll was conducted among 4 likely voters statewide by telephone (landlines and cellphones) Oct. 11-18 by Ward Research Inc. The margin of error is plus or minus 49 percent. Numbers do not total 100% because of rounding.