MASTERS IN FINANCE EQUITY RESEARCH DELTA AIR LINES, INC. COMPANY REPORT INDUSTRIALS 6 JANUARY 2017 STUDENT: MICHAEL LÜFFE (#972)
[email protected] Recommendation: BUY A flight, investors should board Capacity discipline continues to be key profit driver Price Target FY17: 61.74 $ . For the past two years Delta Air Lines has been generating benchmark returns that other US legacy carriers were Price (as of 6-Jan-17) 49.73 $ struggling to keep up with. Reuters: DAL.N, Bloomberg: DAL:US . Going forward the airline will have to increasingly invest 52-week range ($) 33.36-51.78 in the replacement as well as expansion of its aircraft fleet which Market Cap ($m) 37,335.00 is one of the oldest in the industry. Higher capital expenditures Outstanding Shares (m) 736.39 will inevitably come at the expense of shareholder cash returns. Source: Yahoo Finance . Even against the backdrop of rising crude oil and jet fuel prices, operating margins are forecasted to remain in a range of 14% to 18% until 2025. This is subject to the condition that the US airline industry remains disciplined about capacity growth and that unit revenues in Delta’s international markets continue to recover. Source: Fidelity, 06.01.2017 . Valuation: We recommend buying Delta Air Lines given (Values in $ millions) 2015 2016F 2017F our price target for year end 2017 of $61.74 per share, offering Revenues 40,704 40,861 41,329 investors an upside potential of 24.15% to the current share price EBITDA 9,637 10,738 9,094 of $49.73. EBITDA margin 23.68% 26.28% 22.00% Net Profit 4,526 5,373 4,335 Net profit margin 11.12% 13.08% 10.49% Basic EPS 5.68 7.26 6.01 ROIC 25.69% 19.34% 18.14% Capex 2,945 2,809 3,598 Current ratio 0.52 0.60 0.59 Sales per share 51.07 55.49 57.27 Company description Source: Company Data, Analyst’s Estimates Delta Air Lines, Inc., founded in 1924 and headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, offers air transportation services to passengers and cargo throughout the United States and on international routes.