73 ESPACE, POPULATIONS, SOCIETES, 2007-1 pp. 73-89

Martin SCHULER Swiss Federal Institute of Technology EPFL-INTER-Chôros Station 16 1015 Lausanne Suisse martin.schuler@epfl.ch

Migration Patterns of the Population in

1. MIGRATION – A COMPLEX SOCIAL AND INDIVIDUAL PHENOMENON

Kyrgyzstan throughout the whole 20th centu- economy and access to the education sys- ry has been an important destination for im- tem as well as, to a certain extent, to the migrants not only from different parts of the labour market; borders to neighbouring , but also from other countries countries have become a limiting factor of the world. The majority of the population for migration. that are not Kyrgyz natives are immigrants • At the same time, the collapse of the Soviet or children and grandchildren of those who Union opened borders on an international came to Kyrgyzstan from other countries. In scale; migration with outside countries fact this is the case to such a point that the has become possible. Emigration abroad identity of the inhabitants of the Republic is has been partially initiated, but is quite of- marked by the contentiousness of personal ten hindered by administrative measures experience of family or group of history of of potential destination countries, both in geographic movements. This is still the case, other CIS states and beyond them. even if in the 1970s and 1980s and to some • The first years following independence extent even the 1990s have been periods of have been characterised by a deep econo- decreasing mobility. mic recession. Many sectors of the eco- The analysis of migration processes in nomy have undergone major restructu- Kyrgyzstan shows fundamental changes, ring processes and numerous enterprises which have occurred since independence. have closed or lost many employees. The The new political and economic conditions mining, metal and machinery industries, of the country can be characterised by the textile industry, as well as tourism and following findings: transport have seen their activities redu- • The transition of the former Soviet Union ced by the loss of their integration in the Republics to the new independent CIS Union-wide system of co-operation. The countries has reinforced the barrier func- economy of Kyrgyzstan is still suffering tion of the borders between them. New from the effects of international competi- state legislation (taxes and tolls, national tion and from its geographical situation of money, patents, social insurance system) extreme remoteness. But new economic and informal changes have modified the activities are gradually replacing former 74 sectors, especially in trade, tourism, fi- since ethnic Kyrgyz (and also Germans and nancial services and international organi- Uigurs) lived predominately in rural areas, sations. Some traditional economic bran- but , Ukrainians and Koreans inha- ches, first and foremost agriculture, have bited essentially towns or industrial places. also undergone very deep changes throu- Uzbek settle both in urban and rural places gh privatisation; this sector has shown a in Southern Kyrgyzstan. certain capacity and flexibility to occupy At the end of the communist era and since people in critical economic situations. independence, the relations between the dif- • The geographical allocations of the dif- ferent ethnic groups have changed: ferent activities are not identical: internal • First, the ethnic Kyrgyz portion of the po- migration between urban and rural areas pulation became predominant. All coun- and between the different regions of the tries of the former Soviet Union unde- country has occurred as a result of the rwent a period of reinforcement of their economic changes. In addition, it is to be national attributes. Probably the strongest expected that many probably desired mi- element has been the definition of the sta- gration movements could not be realised tus of the national language(s); all Repu- due to lack of opportunity and means. blics have chosen to adopt a policy that We have attempted to summarize the main favours the indigenous ethnic group. Kyr- findings of the reorientation of migration in gyzstan has been one of the Republics in Kyrgyzstan since independence: which this transition has been conducted 1. Migration has followed a process of with a high degree of understanding of “opening” from a Union-wide horizon to the needs of all groups. Nevertheless, the a worldwide scale. relationship between the ethnic groups 2. At the same time, a reduction has occur- has changed and some groups have lost red from this Union-wide horizon to a the real or relative advantages they en- national orientation. joyed before. Consequently, immigration 3. Within the national context, the economic and emigration have become one of the situation has lead to a growth of the part principal means of responding to these of the rural population of the country and changes. as well as to the strong expansion of the • The second point is the fact that the diffe- capital and its surrounding areas. rent ethnic groups responded in quite dif- This very general pattern has been modi- ferent ways to the newly available oppor- fied by differences in migration behaviour tunity to migrate. These differences must by different groups of the population espe- be considered in light of the former social cially between different ethnic groups. Du- integration and economic status of these ring several decades of the former Soviet groups. But outside factors have probably Union, the Kyrgyz Republic was a territory been more decisive than inside elements. of immigration. The 1960s were a period Some ethnic groups have been encoura- of strong modernisation in the industrial ged to move to their corresponding coun- sector as well as in agriculture. During this tries, as in the case of Jews and Germans; time, immigration contributed significantly for others, the country of origin promotes to population growth, but even before this, a policy that is less clear (or more varia- following the creation of the Republic and ble over time), such as and other during the Great Patriotic War, migration Slavic countries. For other groups, emi- to Kyrgyzstan was promoted and forced in gration is still not possible. As a result order to develop the country and to resettle of these conditions, emigration (and the representatives of various nationalities from intensity of return) varies quite strongly other parts of the Soviet Union. The Kyrgyz from one group to another, ranging from Republic thus reinforced its multi-ethnic so- a near 90% loss of the German popula- ciety with relatively clearly defined social, tion to stable migration flows (Uigurs, political and economic specialisations by Koreans). ethnic group as well as certain typical geo- • Quite a different situation exists in the graphic differentiations. The clearest sepa- migration flows with the surrounding ration has been the urban-rural dichotomy, Republics of . Historically, 75 different ethnic groups have been living bouring countries than to their own capital. together for quite a long time and ethnic Talas and the southern are strongly differentiation was rather social or pro- linked to outside economic centres. In addi- fessional difference. Migration across tion, social structure and ethnic composition the borders was frequent during Soviet vary in the different parts of Kyrgyzstan. Al- times, since these borders had almost no though there may be some centrifugal for- discriminatory effect. Before indepen- ces, the role of as capital and centre dence, quite a high percentage of non- of the education system, international com- indigenous ethnic groups were living in munication and information became more all the Central Asian Republics. This is important since 1991. Population migration still the case: a great number of Kyrgyz is considered to be an excellent indicator of are living in , , Uzbekis- the attractiveness of the regional and urban tan and . On the other hand, areas. make up 14% of the Kyrgyz po- Geographically, Kyrgyzstan can be divided pulation, and and Kazakhs are also in three distinct regions which are differenti- quite numerous in the Republic. ated by geographical characteristics as well • In a region of high population growth as by the economic and demographic struc- and competition for very limited natural ture. For analytical purposes, the Kyrgyz resources and land reserves, migration themselves work quite often by altitude clas- becomes an important factor. The figures ses usually applied at the level of rayons1, show that migration across the borders has sometimes at the community level. In this decreased sharply; all ethnic groups pre- article, we will refer to this analytical tool. sent in Kyrgyzstan, besides Tajiks and the The Chui Valley, with the capital Bishkek in ethnic Kyrgyz themselves, have shown a Northern Kyrgyzstan, is situated on the pied- negative migration balance between 1989 mont of the Tien-Shan at an altitude between and 1999. If the result of the migration 700 and 1000 meters above sea-level. This flows is a reduction in ethnic minorities, region has been the main centre for immi- the population remains very mixed. gration since the end of the 19th Century. Im- International emigration had some signifi- portant irrigation projects guarantee a high cant effects on the internal migration flows. agricultural production, but the region is also Emigrants liberated places, which can be by far the most industrialized of the country. reoccupied by people living within the Emigration from the Chui Valley after in- country: job positions or social positions, dependence is strongly linked to the ethnic housing and land. Effectively, since emi- composition of its population, but also a re- grants had often been active in the tertiary sult of the important loss of industrial jobs. sector (administration, education and other) Bishkek with nearly one million inhabitants or living the most fertile regions in the North is becoming a modern capital with a diffe- (Chui Valley), internal migration flows can rentiated tertiary sector. be seen as a re-occupation of vacant oppor- The “Northern Mountain Region” is com- tunities. Other types of vacant places do not posed by three oblasts: Talas, the smallest of have any longer an economic base, such as the country, covers a large valley inhabited at mining localities or industrial towns; they altitudes between 700 and 2200 meters. The have not been re-occupied after emigration settlement structure of Issyk-Kul is and have thus been abandoned. oriented around its immense 7000 km2 lake Migration within Kyrgyzstan is influenced at an altitude of 1600 meters. Besides agri- by great regional differences. The country culture and fishery, tourism is an important is divided into geographic distinct areas and sector since the 1970s, as is mining. is the internal transport connections are diffi- the classic Kyrgyz mountain region, quite re- cult, especially during wintertime. Most re- mote, essentially at high altitude (the regio- gions have better access to centres in neigh- nal capital is situated over 2000 meters) and

1 Rayon : « Traduction » anglaise du terme russe « raion » : dans de nombreux pays issus de l'URSS. district rural, unité administrative de base des recensements 76 with good conditions for pasture. Naryn is longs to Uzbekistan (Andizhan, Namangan) the only oblast with an ethnic homogeneous and Tajikistan (Kodzhend). While the share population. All three regions have stable de- of Ouzbek population is high in the rural mographic evolution due to a moderate natu- plain as well as in most towns of the South, ral increase and high emigration. the Kyrgyz population is concentrated in the Southern Kyrgyzstan, composed of the inner valleys of this immense semi-circle of oblasts Jalal-Abad, and (since Ferghana. All regions of Southern Kyrgyzs- 2002, Osh has become oblast), covers the tan show high population increase, essenti- irrigated and fertile piedmonts of Ferghana ally due to high birth rates, but also due to Valley, while the floor part of the Valley be- limited emigration.

2. MIGRATION – A DIFFICULT PHENOMENON TO MEASURE BY STATISTICS

Migration processes are a complex pheno- nal characteristics. Internal migration can be menon for administrative recording and sta- presented for immigration and emigration, tistical treatment. but international emigration abroad cannot Administratively, migration implies a chan- be accounted for. The available geographi- ge of domicile of a person willing to move cal information of the census questionnaires to another place. In Soviet times migration has been coded by oblast (1989) and by rural was an official act requiring registration. At rayon and town (1999). Intraregional migra- the present time, the permission is needed tion within rayons or within towns is not ta- for international migration, but also internal ken into account in census analysis. migration still must be registered. This obli- Today, the sources on migration for Kyr- gation allows for the creation of interesting gyzstan are richer than ever before, but the statistical sources. Kyrgyz Population Regis- different sources do not concord completely, ters have existed for quite a long time and since they do not have the same administra- they are important sources for any demogra- tive base or the same methodological ap- phic analysis. proach for statistical registration. In fact, the Census questionnaires 1989 and 1999 inclu- population given by the 1999 census indica- ded two questions dealing with migration: tes a higher total than that provided by the the birthplace and the last previous domicile current Population Register for that moment of a person as well as the year of the move. and on the regional level, the Register unde- Census data allow to be combined with all restimated the urban growth of Bishkek. But available demographic, social and professio- it was quite exact for the seven oblasts.

3. MIGRATION BEFORE 1991

Population growth in Kyrgyzstan was qui- migration rate – i.e. the difference between te high during the entire 20th century, in- immigration and emigration, and also shows creasing from 663'000 in 1897 to 4'852'000 the migration intensity rate expressed as the at the end of the 20th century. Up to 1959, sum of immigrants and emigrants with res- Kyrgyz statistics do not dispose of figures on pect to the population average. The database migration within the Republic and from and can differentiate these indicators by exter- to other Republics. The historical overview nal and internal migration. Theoretically, in this chapter starts at the moment (1960), internal net migration should be equivalent when annual data on migration to and from to zero, but in fact the register has always the Kyrgyz Republic and among the oblasts counted more immigrants than emigrants have been produced by the National Statistic due to better registration of the former. The Committee. This source allows a yearly pic- same phenomenon seems to occur on the in- ture to be drawn of the evolution of the net ternational level. 77 The initial year in the observation row, 1960, negative in 1975 and remaining so for nearly probably corresponds to one of the peaks of 30 years. During the 1980s, the rate remai- migration intensity, for both external and in- ned quite stable at a slight negative balance, ternal migration, but it also indicates the mo- followed after independence by a strong ment around which external migration had negative situation (1993: -2.65%). While in the highest positive effect on population de- 1998 the net rate was again the highest it had velopment in Kyrgyzstan. In fact, in 1960 the been since 1975 (-0.11%), in 2000 it took a positive external net migration rate reached more negative turn (-0.45%). After two years 1.07% and three years later it was even 1.26%. of relatively low negative net migration rate From this moment on, the trend reversed and in 2003 and 2004), the year 2005 showed an became decreasing (1970: 0.36%), turning important negative rate in 2005 (-0,52%).

Graph 1: Annual international net migration 1960-2005

Kyrgyzstan 1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00

-0.50

-1.00

-1.50

-2.00

-2.50

-3.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Sources: National Statistical Committee, Bishkek

The annual migration intensity rate, which, vely short period for a job or training course as indicated above, is expressed as the rela- in the Republic, and have subsequently mo- tion of the sum of immigrants and emigrants ved away. to the population average, has decreased During the sixties, the volume of exter- constantly during the last 40 years. This nal immigration and emigration was quite trend is one of the main findings of migra- close to the volume of the internal migra- tion statistics, since it is able to place the tion flows, i.e. between the oblasts. In fact, actual discussions about migration proces- migration was encouraged not only at the ses in a historical context. In fact, the total regional level, but also on the level of the migration rate for the Kyrgyz SSR was very former Union. The sum of external migra- intense during the 1960s and probably be- tion diminished constantly from about 70‰ fore that, around 1930 and 1940. Industria- in 1960 to 50 (1970), 30 (1980) and 24 in lisation, the construction of important in- 1991. After the peak of 1993 (37‰), exter- frastructure and development of the mining nal migration intensity fell to 5 ‰ in 1999 sector strongly contributed to immigration and to 7‰ in 2005. Today, migration flows from the other Republics of the Soviet over the borders of the Republic are ten ti- Union, but the population inflow has been mes lower than in 1960, but emigration to- counterbalanced by an important outflow. day is higher than immigration – contrary to Workers often have been hired for a relati- the situation 40 years ago. 78

Graph 2: Annual international migration intensity 1960-2005

Kyrgyzstan 8.00

7.00

6.00

5.00

4.00

3.00

2.00

1.00

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Sources: National Statistical Committee, Bishkek However, while the volume of external mi- 1960 and 1980, the different Republics gration has fallen sharply, the volume of in- maintained the same proportion of migrants ternal migration has not followed the same from and to the Kyrgyz Republic: Russia, path. Between 1960 and 1980, the fall in the 48% of them, Kazakhstan about 25%, Uzbe- latter was 30% (but 60% for external ex- kistan 15%, Ukraine 5% and Tajikistan 2%. changes). After 1980, internal migration in- If the share of the different Republics of the tensity even grew by 12%. During the 1980s, total of migrants has been stable, the effec- internal migration began to substitute exter- tiveness of migration changed, since immi- nal population exchange; the main migration gration and emigration developed different- flows went from rural to urban oblasts within ly: Between 1959 and 1970, the difference Kyrgyzstan, whereas before urban growth between 787'000 immigrants and 603'000 had essentially been fed by trans-Republic emigrants was a positive net migration of migration. 184'000 persons. Immigration was positive During the 1990s, migration intensity de- with nearly all the other Republics of the creased considerably, for both external (after Soviet Union, especially Russia (+112'000 1993) and internal migration. The results is people) and Kazakhstan (+57'700 people). that today the Kyrgyz population is in one of During the 1970s, net migration was close its least mobile phases for several decades; to equilibrium (roughly 628'000 immigrants at least since detailed register statistics have and 660'000 emigrants). The origin and des- been available. While migration is currently tination of migrants underwent some chan- still of major importance, this is due to the ges: during this period, Kyrgyzstan had a inequality of the flows: much stronger inter- gain of 20'000 persons in exchange with Ka- national emigration than immigration move- zakhstan, but a loss of 30'000 persons with ment, and much stronger internal migration Russia, a loss of 10'000 with Ukraine and a from rural places to urban than the other loss of 7'500 with Uzbekistan. way around. But migration is also a key pro- The 1980s showed a further decline of gene- blem, since motility (the intention to move) ral trans-border mobility due to a reduction is stronger than the observed mobility (the of immigrants but stability of emigrants. Net realized moves). migration became clearly negative (-96'000 The historical overview of migration data by people), but the migration pattern did not register shows the importance of migration change in comparison with the previous pe- flows by origin and destination. Between riod: a gain with Kazakhstan (+14'200) and 79 losses with most of the other Republics (Rus- ever before, the negative net migration did sia: -61'200). For the first time emigration to not really affect the total population growth. other countries in the world became clearly The importance of Russia is still great since negative (-42'000), since from 1982, other 35% of all migrants (or two-thirds of all mi- destinations increased their share slightly grants to and from CIS countries) come from and from 1988 on, countries outside the CIS or goes to this country. On the other hand, comprise the origin or destination of half of migration between the neighbouring coun- the migrants from and to Kyrgyzstan (first to tries in Central Asia has decreased (although Israel, later on to Germany). Since the natural for some oblasts in southern Kyrgyzstan it is increase (in absolute figures) was higher than still higher than internal migration).

4. INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION AFTER 1989

The census decade from 1989 to 1999 co- (-252'200), Uzbekistan (-22'200), Ukraine vers the first years since independence. This (-8'800), Kazakhstan (-6'100) and Byelo- period was marked by a very significant russia (-3'100) and with other countries of population loss due to international migra- the world (-77'300) – primarily to Germany tion. The figures of the Register show that (-71'000). During the 1990s, the Kyrgyz Re- the 250'000 immigrants coming from other public lost a significant number of its former countries correspond to only one-third of the immigrants (of course, their numbers had in number during the period 1979-89, but emi- the meantime increased by natural growth). grants (633'600) were nearly as numerous as But in comparison with other countries of before. Thus, the total mobility was half as Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan did not have the high as before (reduction from 0.33 to 0.17) highest emigration rate of ethnic groups. Af- and net migration fell to -383'600. ter 2000, international population exchange Annual register data show a very unequal is still the highest with Russia, which is the distribution of the migration flows. The an- destination of 80% of all emigrants from nual number of immigrants diminished con- Kyrgyzstan. But emigration is strongly in- tinuously from some 55'000 people in 1989 creasing to Kazakhstan with a negative mi- to 10'000 in 1998 and even only 4'000 in gration balance of 4'000 persons in 2005. 2005. Emigration (1989: 60'800) increased The demographic evolution of the 1990s and reached a high level in 1993 (143'600) lead to a stagnation of the urban part of Kyr- before falling to 15'700 in 1998 (some 30'000 gyzstan (+4.6%), but the rural population in 2005). The years 1990 to 1994 showed continued to grow (+18.3%). International high negative net migration, but at the end of migrations as well as internal mobility – exa- the decade, migration became more or less cerbated by the industrial decline – lead to balanced. Thus, emigration problems were this situation, but a difference in the natural acute in the first years of independence and increase was also responsible. In addition, economic transition. Around 1998, transbor- since the definition of urban places is quite der migration actually became very weak, restrictive, a part of the suburban growth is if we compare the 10'200 immigrants and attributed to the rural parts of the country. 15'700 emigrants with the 60'000 people International migration has affected all parts entering and the 60'000 people leaving the of the country. Between 1989 and 1998, mi- Republic yearly during the 1960s and 1970s gration exchange was high in urban regions, (when the total population was half as nume- border regions and the regions in which non- rous as today). Kyrgyz ethnic groups were numerous (all As said before, net migration between 1990 three factors are correlated). Bishkek and and 1999 was negative with nearly all other Chui Oblast each lost 15% of the original countries besides Tajikistan (+10'400) and – population due to migration. In Naryn, the on a very low level of population exchange – most mountainous oblast with a homoge- with the Caucasian Republics. On the other neous Kyrgyz population, the rate was only hand, important losses occurred with Russia -0.1%. But Issyk-Kul and Talas in the north 80 and Osh and Jalal-Abad in the south had qui- term evaluation shows that the reorientation te high net emigration rates (between -5% of the Kyrgyz transborder migration had and -8%). All oblasts but Naryn had three already started in the 1970s and that the early times as many emigrants as immigrants du- 1990s brought a definite intensification of a ring this period. long-standing trend. This intensification was There has been significant emigration abroad limited in time and was reduced by policy from Bishkek and Chui, since the percentage measures after 1994. Secondly, emigration of non-Kyrgyz groups is the highest in this did not intensify, but immigration broke part of the country (78% and 72% in 1989). down. The attraction of the country for im- But in relative figures, Russians, Germans migrants or returnees diminished strongly. and other national groups did not emigrate as Thirdly, the strong reduction of transborder much from Bishkek and Chui Oblast as from migration shows the effects of the nation- those oblasts in which they represented small building processes in Kyrgyzstan and other minorities. Thus, less than the half of the ori- CIS countries. The population exchange with ginal Russian population in Osh, Jalal-Abad neighbouring countries fell and migration and Naryn remained in these places, as against with certain faraway countries intensified. more than 80% in Bishkek and Chui and two- Finally, international migration patterns must thirds in Issyk-Kul. International migration also be observed with the internal structure of depends also on the degree of integration in the country and its geographical orientation. the local context and the economic situation. As we will see in the next parts of the chap- Even if the international migration pattern ter, international migration affected internal during the 1990s was dramatic, the long- mobility.

5. INTERNAL MIGRATIONS IN KYRGYZSTAN

One of the most important statistical indi- 12% to 34%. In 1970, 37.4% of the Kyrgyz cators is the differentiation between urban population lived in urban areas; this figure and rural areas. Historically, this indicator was 38.7% in 1979 and 38.2% in 1989. Ac- has shown a strong period of urbanisation cording to the 1999 census, the percentage between 1926 and 1959 that increased from fell to 35.4%.

Map 1: Administrative-territorial Units

Bishkek k ow v a Ysyk-Kul Tiup nfilo Manas Mosk

Sokolu Kemin Pa l Talas town Issyk-At

Jaiy Chuy-Tokmak Balykchi

Kara-Buura Alamudun Bakai-Ata Ak-Suu Ton Jumgal Chatkal Jety-Oguz

Aksy Kara-Kul

Tash-Komur Mayluu-Suu Bazar-Korgon Toguz-Toro Ala-Buka

Suzak Ak-Tala Nooken Kok-Janggak

At-Bashy Jalal-Abad Oblasts 0 100 km Bishkek Osh Kara-Kulja Aravan Kara-Suu Talas Chuy Kyzyl-Kyya Ysyk-Kul Jalal–Abad Soulyukta Kadamjai Naukat Naryn Lailyak Batken Alai

Osh Chon-Alai 0 100 km Batken

As of 1999 (population census)

Oblasts, rayons and towns, 1999 81

Maps 2 to 5: Demographic evolution by towns and rayon, four decades

Map 2: Demographic evolution by decades: 1959 – 1970 (Towns and Rayons)

10 436460 4.0 20 3.0 200000 13 2.0 100000 6 1.0 Towns 1 7876 0.0 3 Rayons Annual growth rate, in %

Map 3: Demographic evolution by decades: 1970 – 1979 (Towns and Rayons)

535450 0 4.0 8 3.0 200000 16 2.0 100000 20 1.0 Towns 8 10084 0.0 1 Rayons Annual growth rate, in %

Map 4: Demographic evolution by decades: 1980 – 1989 (Towns and Rayons)

619904 1 500000 4.0 7 3.0 200000 17 2.0 100000 21 1.0 Towns 7 14616 0.0 0 Rayons Population 1989 Annual growth rate, in % 82 Map 5: Demographic evolution by decades: 1989 – 1999 (Towns and Rayons)

10 436460 4.0 20 3.0 200000 13 2.0 100000 6 1.0 Towns 1 7876 0.0 3 Rayons Annual growth rate, in %

During the 60s in the Kyrgyz Republic, new towns experience significant emigra- industrial complexes were being commissio- tion and even negative natural increase. ned, and at the same time large-scale housing Bishkek, however, is a growing city with construction was undertaken. This genera- strong internal immigration. ted a demand for large numbers of skilled • Great differences in the birth rate are ob- workers and engineers, which affected po- served between rural and urban locations pulation growth in the urban settlements. (and between the south and the north). A positive immigration rate led to a high Emigration from rural areas partly com- population increase. Differences of growth pensates for the differences in natural rates between the North and the South were growth. minor, whereas they were major between ur- • Immigration from rural to urban areas ban and rural places. is replacing the negative balance of in- From 1970 to 1979, population increase has ternational migration, which has been been half as strong comparing to the previous essentially an urban effect. Since 1989, decade, but urban-rural differences were less Bishkek lost 89'000 people to internatio- than before. During this period, Southern nal migration (register data), but gained Kyrgyzstan became the most dynamic part 151'000 through internal migration (1999 of the country, especially in the region of census). Osh witch benefited of high investment in • Urban growth is extending beyond the agriculture and industry. administrative borders of the towns. During the 80s, emigration from the Repu- Bishkek, Kara-Kol, Osh and Jalal-Abad blic increased, and internal migration was show clearly negative net migration with low. Thus differences in regional population their surrounding rayons (but gains with growth were mainly due to unequal natural more distant rayons). The process of ur- increase, in favour for rural regions in the banisation is affecting a wider area than South. officially indicated. During the 1990s when the urban population The statistical indicator, which shows an in- percentage diminished, internal migration crease of the rural population of the country, showed a clear direction of flow from rural highlights two economic phenomena of the parts of the country to urban locations and 1990s: the de-industrialisation of the country from mountainous areas to the valleys. This and of the Kyrgyz urban locations, and the apparent paradox will be the guideline for importance of agriculture for employment, the analysis of the internal migrations during even if the agricultural employment is often the last decade. a hidden form of unemployment. In fact, this has a series of explanations: The tendency of internal migration in Kyr- • The urban decline affects a majority of gyzstan is the combination of a force of re- the urban areas in the country. Industrial tention of the rural parts of the country in a 83 precarious economic period and emigration gration flows within the country. Six of the to urban places which themselves have been 12 rayons with migration gains are located confronted with major economic problems. in the Greater Bishkek area, including the During the period 1994-1999, of the 54 capital itself (17.8%) and two neighbou- towns and rural rayons of the Republic, only ring rayons Alamudun (20.1%) and Sokoluk twelve had a positive internal migration ba- rayon (10.6%). Three other rayons in the lance, but 42 registered a loss through mi- Chui Valley have positive migration rates.

Map 6: International Migration Balance 1994 - 1999 by rayon

Bishkek

Towns under oblast Talas town Karakol administration Balykchi

Kara-Kul

Tash-Komur Mayluu-Suu

Kok-Janggak

Jalal-Abad 0 100 km

Osh From 10 to 20.1%

Kyzyl-Kyya From 0 to 9.9%

Soulyukta From –5 to –0.1%

From –10 to –5.1%

From –20 to –10.1%

From –22 to –20.1%

Source: First National Population Census of the Kyrgyz Republic, 1999

Outside the Chui Valley, no other rural -20%), most regions in Issyk-Kul oblast as rayon gained from internal migration, but well as the upper parts of Talas oblast, and six towns did: Kara-Kol in Issyl-Kul Oblast also Alai in Osh oblast and Toktogul in Jalal- (4.9%), Osh (3.5%), Jalal-Abad (5.7%), as Abad oblast. This list shows a geographical well as Kyzyl-Kiya (4.1%), Mailuu-Suu pattern with a concentration of the highly af- (2.3%) and Kara-Kul (1.4%) in the South. fected areas in the northern and mountainous All these towns, besides Kara-Kol, have parts of the country. Most of these rayons population decreases (in Mailuu-Suu, it is are relatively close to Bishkek and Chui, and as much as 30%). While internal migration they contributed most to the migration gain has been favourable for these urban areas, in the capital area, while most of the rural it has not compensated for the effects of in- regions in the Ferghana valley are not losing ternational emigration and the low natural population dramatically through internal mi- increase of the population: therefore, rayons gration. with positive internal net migration are es- If we break down the five-year internal net sentially rayons with population decrease, migration period by ethnic group, we can while rayons with negative internal migra- see that the ethnic Kyrgyz are not only by tion balance show population growth. From far the most numerous group, but they make this point of view, internal migration during an essential contribution to the overall pic- the period under observation has tended to ture of migration. Osh, Jalal-Abad and Bis- balance population distribution by offsetting hkek have somewhat stronger net migration losses through international migration and growth for ethnic Kyrgyz than for the whole by somewhat compensating for areas with a population. Ethnic Uzbeks have quite a diffe- high natural increase. rent spatial distribution from the Kyrgyz; ne- But some rayons in the country have expe- vertheless they are also moving to the Greater rienced very strong losses through internal Bishkek area and leaving rural areas in which migration processes; this is the case for all they have a strong presence such as Aravan, the regions in Naryn (Jumgal -21%, Naryn Uzgen, Bazar-Korgon, Nooken, Aksy and 84 Ala Buuka. But unlike ethnic Kyrgyz, the tion, they leave industrial places and move migration pattern of the Uzbek population to the Bishkek area, and within the capital between urban and rural areas in the South region, they show movement from the cen- shows them leaving towns such as Osh or tre to the surrounding rayon in a (slight) Jalal-Abad and settling in the neighbouring process of suburbanisation. Certain specific rural areas (Kara-Suu for Osh, Suzak for patterns can be observed, such as the posi- Jalal-Abad). Russians are not very mobile tive net migration of Naryn, but the absolute within the country; through internal migra- figures are low.

6. MIGRATION BY ALTITUDE Kyrgyzstan is a mountainous country. Moun- negative migration balance, but also here tains characterise the Kyrgyz landscape and emigration has become quite significant. The are essential as the economic base of the po- second exception is the very highest group pulation and for settlement – inside the moun- (>2'400 m). The only rayon belonging to this tains as well as outside – since the mountains group is Chon-Alai in the upper Alai Valley, house the most important natural resource – in the extreme south of the Osh Oblast, where water. But although 90% of the surface of the internal migration is very low (-3.9%). We do country is situated at an altitude of over 1'000 not know whether the positive demographic metres, the remaining section has become the situation of Alai can be attributed to the qua- most important part of the country in eco- lity of its pasture land or its extreme remote- nomic terms. The construction of a large ir- ness and to some “protection” by the distance, rigation system since the 1930s has enabled or if, on the contrary, the region at the Tajik agriculture to develop in the plains, and the and Chinese border benefits from transborder foothill regions have also become the sites trade. In any case, Alai and Chon-Alai are the of the main industries and towns (the Chui Kyrgyz regions with the highest birth rate, the and Ferghana Valleys). Bishkek (750 m), Osh lowest immigration and the lowest emigra- (980 m), Jalal-Abad (760 m) and Kyzyl-Kiya tion. Between 1959 and 1999, the population (980 m) are located under the 1'000-metre of the two rayons increased from 27'500 to threshold. Net migration rate by different al- 87'600 people, and this without nearly any titude classes (measured by the altitude of the immigration. rayon centres) is quite clear: the higher the al- The example of Alai and Chon-Alai is not at titude, the more negative the migration flows. all significant for Kyrgyz mountain areas. All Over time, the dependence of altitude has not rayons in Issyk-Kul, Naryn and Talas entered fundamentally changed, but it has grown. For after 1989 in a period of demographic stagna- the internal net migration between 1989 and tion due to strong emigration, which could 1999, only the altitude class of 700-800 me- only partly be compensated for by natural ters has a positive value (+10.5%). More than growth. Three rural rayons in the northern two million of the country’s total population mountains (Ton, Jumgal, Bakai-Ata) declined live at this altitude. Rayons situated below 700 between 1989 and 1999. But compared to the m and between 800 and 1'000 m have a sli- decline of the rural and remote areas, the de- ghtly negative migration balance. All classes mographic breakdown has been much more beyond 1'000 m have steadily increasing net dramatic in industrial and mining towns. migration losses, going from -6.1% (1'000- Many former mining towns such as Ak-Tiuz 1'200 m) to -25.7% (2'000-2'400 m). or Bordunsky in the Chui Oblast, as well as Only two altitude classes are somewhat diffe- still-operational mining locations such as rent from the general picture. The first is the Min-Kush in the Naryn Oblast and Engilchek 1'600-1'800 m class, where we find most of in the Issyk-Kul Oblast are the highest pla- the rayons of the Issyk-Kul oblast, charac- ces in their region. The large mining towns in terised by a very specific climatic and envi- the south, such as Mailuu-Suu, Kok-Jangak, ronmental situation, but also a more diverse Khaydarkan and , are also mountai- economic structure. The rayons situated wi- nous. Their economic decline has reinforced thin this altitude class have a somewhat less mountain depopulation. 85 Graph 3: Internal migration by altitude, 1989-1999

immigration 89-99 emigration 89-99 migration balance 89-99

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

Altitude (m) <700 700-800 800-1000 1000-1200 1200-1400 1400-1600 1600-1800 1800-2000 2000-2400 >2400

Source: Census 1999 (matrix by rayons for a 5-year period, altitude: rayon centre) The analysis of migration by altitude clas- land, breakdown of mining and industry), ses has shown the general pattern of strong as well as the potential of economic al- population movement from high altitudes ternatives in the plains, which obviously to the plains. These migration flows re- have been better in the demographically flect the difficult economic situation in declining Chui Valley than in the strongly mountainous areas (limitation of pasture growing South.

Graph 4: Natural increase, internal and international migrations by altitude, 1996-2003

Natural increase Migration balance between rayons Migration balance with other countries Total growth

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

Altitude (m) <700 700-800 800-1000 1000-1200 1200-1400 1400-1600 1600-1800 1800-2000 2000-2400 >2400

Source: Register data, 1996-2003 (aggregation of rayons, altitude: rayon centre)

Natural increase and international migration in the south – the negative net internal mi- have had stronger effects on population in- gration makes only for a small part of the crease. In high altitude regions – especially surplus of births over deaths. Graph 4, based 86 on register data, shows the evolution of the increase was at its lowest. Internal migration three components of population dynamics contributes to a certain extent to offset the between 1996 and 2004. During this time, regional differences in population growth, at international migration continued to affect least for the moment, except in the northern urban areas in low altitude, where natural mountains.

7. THE KYRGYZ MIGRATION MODEL

Graph 5 shows a very schematic migra- countries, the internal net migration between tion model of Kyrgyzstan during the period the areas and the net migration between and 1989-1999. This model considers four main the surrounding suburban rayons in the Cui territorial areas, i.e. the capital Bishkek, the oblast. Chui oblast, the northern mountainous areas International migration concerns all Kyrgyz or Northern Kyrgyzstan (Talas, Issyk-Kul, regions, and emigration abroad is two or Naryn oblasts) and southern Kyrgyzstan three times higher than immigration (Bis- (Jalal-Abad, Osh, Batken oblasts). The sizes hkek city –128'000/+40'000, Chui oblast of the rectangles representing the areas pro- –224'000/+94'000, Northern Kyrgyzstan portional to the inhabitants and, in addition, –67'000/+21'000 and Southern Kyrgyzstan show the evolution over the last ten years: –171'000/+57'000). The intensity of exchan- very positive for the South and Bishkek, ge and net migration rate are somewhat dif- stable or slightly negative for the two other ferent for the four areas; they are by far the units. The arrows show the intensity of the highest for Chui oblast where the proportion international migration to and from outside if non-ethnic Kyrgyz is the highest.

Graph 5. Kyrgyz Migration Model

Bishkek

Chui

Talas Issyk-Kul Naryn

Jalal-Abad Osh Batken

Population 1989 Population 1999 87 Internal migration is extremely unequal and having intense exchange with all parts of follows an economic hierarchy: the country; • Bishkek has very positive net migration • Internal migration has chain effects re- with all three other areas: northern and placing strong international losses and southern Kyrgyzstan and Chui oblast. The also the effects of much lower natural po- only exceptions are the rayons of Chui pulation increase: high birth rates in the oblast that surround Bishkek since there southern and the northern areas, low birth is a flow of the population from Bishkek rates in Bishkek and Chui oblast; to these rayons. • Finally, centre-suburban migration bet- • Chui is gaining from the two other areas ween Bishkek and its surrounding rayons (northern and southern Kyrgyzstan), but is forming an expanding metropolitan essentially from the northern areas. area. • Southern Kyrgyzstan is losing through its This model stresses the effects of ethnic population exchange with Bishkek, but group migration: the percentage of non-eth- quite neutral with the two others (hardly nic Kyrgyz is high among the total interna- any movement). tional migrant population and ethnic migra- This model shows four different dynamics: tion has led to internal migration. Finally, the • High international mobility in all parts model shows that the geographical barriers of the country and strongly negative net between the North and the South are limiting migration (but in the past, exchange rates migration. The only exception to this rule is have been much higher); the capital Bishkek, which is attracting peo- • Internal migration flows from poorer to ple from the whole country and playing an richer regions; Bishkek is the only place integrating effect.

8. MIGRATION PROGNOSIS IN KYRGYZSTAN

The international migration patterns of the sufficient jobs for the immigrants, but the in- second half of the 1990s have been quite formal sector and urban living conditions are different from those of the first half, since attracting them. In southern Kyrgyzstan, den- emigration abroad diminished considerably. sity of rural population is still increasing and On the other hand, internal migration is still affects the economic base of the households. quite high and is directed from rural to urban Population in industrial and mining towns is places, from mountain regions to the plains, suffering from lack of employment. especially to the Chui Valley and Bishkek. During the coming years, international emi- These migrations have been seen as the ex- gration may continue, since the pull factors pression of chain migration processes, of in the destination countries, especially in people re-occupying vacant positions. Cur- Russia, seem to be positive. But these po- rently, emigration from rural places is not pulation losses will mostly have a negative only quite negative, but even higher than effect on the quality of manpower; quanti- the natural increase: many rayons in Talas, tatively, migration will not be as significant Naryn and Issyk-Kul Oblasts are stagnating as in the past. On the other hand, there is a or even losing their populations. In southern real risk that internal migration will increase Kyrgyzstan, where natural increase is much and lead to rural depopulation, especially in higher, rural-urban migration is doing little the north and in the mountain areas, where to absorb the surplus population, and inter- the natural increase will also fall. Without national emigration is not very significant. effective regional policy measures, urbanisa- Northern Kyrgyzstan seems to have ente- tion will rapidly continue and fundamentally red in a process of rural decrease, a process, disturb the equilibrium between rural and which affected a great many industrial coun- urban growth. It is evident that the agricul- tries during the 1950s and 1960s, and other tural sector will have to be reformed and that countries during the subsequent decades. At the current labour force in this branch will the same time, Kyrgyz towns do not offer diminish. Rural policy should be oriented to 88 create jobs in other fields such as local indus- Secondly, North and South differ not only try and tourism, construction and transport, in demographic and economic structure, but but also to decentralise state activities such also in their orientation to neighbours. Trans- as public administration and education. border migration will remain important. The The gap between the demographic evolu- role of Bishkek as national capital and centre tion between the north and the south of the for modern economic and cultural life has country has several aspects. First, the absolu- had an integrating effect. Better road connec- te difference between a stagnating North and tions within the country and the promotion a fast-growing South will reinforce the eco- of Osh as a second national pole could lead nomic and political importance of the South. to stronger North-South movements.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

ACANKANOB A.A., OCMONOB O. Dj. (2002), Istoria KUDABAEV Zarybek, ADBIMONUNOV P. A., ABU- Kyrgyzstana, Bishkek. BAKIROVA Tamara A. (2003), Kyrgyzkaja Model pere- pici nacelenia 1999 goda. Methodologia i organisatsia, AIDARALIEV A. A. (2001), Gori Kyrgyztana, Techno- Bishkek. logia, Bishkek. MOGILEVSKY Roman (1999), Kyrgyzstan. Common AITMATOV I. et al. (1995), Enzyklopedia Talasskaia Country Assessment, Center for Social and Economic Oblast, Bishkek. Research and National Statistics Committee, Bishkek, AITMATOV I. et al. (1994), Enzyklopedia Chuiskaja October. Oblast, Bishkek. National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Re- AITMATOV I. et al. (1995), Enzyklopedia Yssik-Kul public (2000), Main results of the first national Region, Bishkek. population census of the Kyrgyz Republic of 1999, Akademia Nauk Kyrgyzkoi CCR (1987), Atlas Kyr- Bishkek. gyzkoi Sovietskoi Sozialiszicheskoi Respubliki, Tom 1, National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic Prirodnie uslobia I resurci, Moskva. (2000), Population of Kyrgyzstan, Results of the first ALLWORTH Edward (1990), Central Asia. A Century national population census of the Kyrgyz Republic of of Russian Rule, Columbia University Press, New York. 1999, Publication II (Part 1), Bishkek. ANDERSON Barbara A., KATUS Kalev and SILVER National Statistical Committee (2002), Migration of Brian D. (1994), Developments and prospects for popu- the Population of Kyrgyzstan, Publication II (Part 3), lation statistics in countries of the former Soviet Union, Bishkek. Population Index, vol. 60, n° 1, (Spring) pp. 4-20. National Statistical Committee (2003), Demographi- Council of Europe (2000), Évolution démographique ceski Eshegodnik Kyrgyzkoi Respubliki 1998-2002, récente en Europe, Strasbourg. Tacis, Bishkek, n° 2. International Organization for Migration (1999), Migra- National Statistical Committee (2003), Kyrgyzkaia tion in the CIS 1997-98, 1999 Edition, Technical Coo- Gosudarstvennost Statistika Vekov, Bishkek, n° 3. peration Centre for Europe and Central Asia, Geneva. SCHULER Martin, DESSEMONTET Pierre, TOR- HETMANEK Allen (1975), “Kirgizistan and the Kir- GASHOVA Liudmila, ABUBAKIROVY Tleu and ghiz”, in Katz Zev, Rosemarie Rodgers and Frederic MINBAEV Muktar (2004), Mountain Atlas of Kyrgyzstan, Harned, Handbook of Major Soviet Nationalities, The NSC Bishkek, EPF Lausanne. Free Press, New York. TABYSHALIEVA Anara (2001), Kyrgyzstan. Common International Organization for Migration, www.iom.int/ Country Assessment, UNS, NSC, Bishkek. Publications/Kyrgyzstan.htm UNDP (2002), National Report, Human Development KUDABAEV Zarylbek I. (1999), Preparation and in Mountain , Bishkek. conduct of the Population Census: the Kyrgyz model, UNFPA (2001), Ekonomiceskie problemi gosudarc- Statistical Journal of the United Nations ECE, vol. 16, tvennogo regulirovania vnutrennei migratsii nacelenia pp.311-324. kirgistana, Bishkek. 89

ANNEX: THE QUESTION ON MIGRATION IN THE KYRGYZ CENSUS 1999

The Kyrgyz Census questionnaire contains culation of the migration balance between a two-part question on migration: the year two regions in a given period is influenced of the last migration as well as the year in by the assumption that the probability of which the last migration movement took a second move after an inter-regional mi- place. This form of question follows the gration is equal in all cases. This is proba- Soviet tradition, but is somewhat different bly not true: immigrations from abroad to from the question asked in various other towns are less frequently followed by an countries, where it is the residence at a pre- interregional movement than immigration cise moment that must be indicated (usually from abroad to rural rayons or industrial 1 or 5 years prior to the date of the census). towns. This method tends to overestimate The Kyrgyz Census allows for a much broa- the negative net migration of rural areas. der picture of population mobility, since A second problem deals with the codification some migratory movements that took place of spatial data. The census migration matrix a long time previously may also be indica- is based on the indications provided by the ted. This way of organizing the question population on the questionnaire. Geographi- attributed great importance to the last mi- cal attribution to rayons is not always easy, gration movement, which may have been a since in some cases the same geographical migration from abroad or a change of resi- name may indicate a town, a rural rayon or dence within the same region. Thus, the cal- an oblast (Naryn, Talas). 90