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NFL Draft 2020 Scouting Report: WR Ja'marr Chase, LSU (Update)

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NFL Draft 2020 Scouting Report: WR Ja'marr Chase, LSU (Update) 2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT APRIL 3, 2021 NFL Draft 2020 Scouting Report: WR Ja’Marr Chase, LSU (Update) *WR grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available. *WR-B stands for "Big-WR," a classification we use to separate the more physical, downfield/over-the- top, heavy-red-zone-threat-type WRs. Our WR-S/"Small-WRs" are profiled by our computer more as slot and/or possession-type WRs who are typically less physical and rely more on speed/agility to operate underneath the defense and/or use big speed to get open deep...they are not used as weapons in the red zone as much. *4/3/21 UPDATE* Well, a lot has developed with the Ja’Marr Chase scouting case since my February scouting. Chase had his Pro Day, it was good…better than I projected in some areas…not as good in some others…but it was hyped to the moon regardless. The mainstream was on Chase as their top guy pretty early…for various reasons, but his Pro Day 40-time (4.3s) and vertical (41”) has him solidified as everyone’s top WR. There are a few football people who are DeVonta Smith dissenters, with him as their #1 WR prospect – but by and large people are turned off by ‘skinny’ (DeVonta) and are attracted to the shirtless photos of a very yoked Chase (and not looking at any pictures of the other similarly/more yoked WR prospects, but I digress). Chase is THEIR guy. Lock it in. But in February 2021, I scouted Chase (pre-Pro Day) and was like ‘shoulder shrug’. Definitely not the best WR prospect I’d seen in recent years…or in 2021. He looked OK, but I didn’t understand ‘why all the hysteria’? Chase is OK/good, but in a sea of good and great WR prospects…why people are fixated on him…I don’t quite understand, but that’s what THEY do…all the time. Henry Ruggs became ‘it’ guy in 2020…Marquise Brown in 2019. So, THEIR track record isn’t great. So why am I updating Chase? Two reasons… 1) The Pro Day had some sweet measurables for me to reconsider and update our grading with. 2) There’s so much hysteria, I wanted to look a third time to see if I was a mental patient on this. I’m usually not, but I’m willing to admit where I am wrong. I don’t care if I find that I made a mistake prior – College Football Metrics| 1 2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT APRIL 3, 2021 I want to/need to be ‘right’ in the end. I would like to be ‘right’ first, but I’ll take ‘right’ eventually…versus holding a losing hand. So, I took another look… I put on tape of his 2019 versus Auburn and Florida, to start…and then I just stopped re-watching. It’s the same guy. He’s good. He’s fine. He too often needs pick plays to really spring him open/beat top coverage. He’ll play in the NFL. He’ll start in the NFL. But is he the best WR prospect in 2021? No. Is he top five? I don’t think so. Top 10? Maybe. I see nothing special about Chase’s game that warrants a top 10 NFL Draft pick, especially in comparison to the absolute tidal wave of legit WR talents flooding the college football border into the NFL. From a supply-demand aspect, I don’t get it. Chase is an above average-to-good-to-very good athlete. Nice size, solid frame with athleticism. But his WR play is a snooze. You can’t watch DeVonta Smith or 2019 teammate Justin Jefferson or Iowa’s Brandon Smith or Rondale Moore (I could keep going) tape and then watch Ja’Marr Chase on tape and walk away thinking he looked the best. Aesthetically – it’s not there. I saw better-looking Ruggs-Jeudy- Lamb tape last year, and I thought they were all overhyped, and I was right. Again, Chase isn’t bad…there’s just nothing all that special here. Can Chase get drafted top 10 overall and pushed as an instant-starter and put up some of the best WR numbers in the 2021 WR rookie class? Yep. Jerry Jeudy sucks, and he did that…in part, because he started day one. Chase will for sure get a push, but that doesn’t mean he’s better than other guys who don’t get an initial free pass/push. Bryan Edwards is 2x better than Ja’Marr Chase but won’t get the same opportunity out of the gates. My grade did rise with Chase’s Pro Day – he’s faster than I expected, more leg-power (vertical and broad) than I expected…but the 10-yard time is weak (and that’s where he needs to be strong for his interior work he’ll be asked to do primarily) and his shuttle was terrific, but his three-cone was OK/good. Off the snap, on tape, Chase is ‘meh’ and his times kinda confirm it. He gets better with more (long) speed downfield…but is a 6’0”/201 mediocre hands WR going to be a monster deep ball guy? Maybe. But that profile doesn’t warrant a top 10 overall selection in the 2021 NFL Draft. A lot of guys can run in the 4.3s/4.4s and go deep…but too many of them are taller/more reach than Chase. College Football Metrics| 2 2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT APRIL 3, 2021 My new grade and comp table (his old report and comps below): WR Draft Last First College H H W Power Speed Hands Score Yr Strngth Agility Metric Metric Metric 7.369 2021 Chase Ja'Marr LSU 6 0.3 201 9.84 9.39 7.58 7.614 2005 Murphy Terrence Texas A&M 6 0.7 202 9.38 9.50 6.83 7.467 2020 Reagor Jalen TCU 5 10.8 206 9.82 7.47 8.11 8.630 2010 Cruz Victor UMass 5 11.5 206 12.10 7.61 9.75 6.495 2020 Osborn K.J. Miami 5 11.4 203 9.41 6.48 7.32 Terrence Murphy was a 2nd-round pick of Green Bay in 2005…and lasted one NFL season. I’m not saying Chase’s career is headed that way, but his profile for the draft most closely matches his. When you think of Jalen Reagor – just think about how hysterical everyone was with this college talent this time last year (and every highly ranked WR prospect)? Reagor was a 1st-round projection for the mainstream…and a 1st-round pick in reality. Now, do you even care? For the second comp board run in a row, the computer fancies K.J. Osborn as a top comp – and I would say, I see it very much, and what if Osborn played a 2019 season with Joe Burrow instead of Chase getting to do so? And, a reminder, Osborn is an interesting sleeper WR floating around in the NFL…and has a lot of physical/athletic comps with Chase. ====================================== **ORIGINAL FEBRUARY REPORT** Is it just me? I just cannot see what the big deal is on Ja’Marr Chase. I mean, he’s good…but I see little- to-no signs of ‘great’ here at all. But the entire rest of the football universe seems absolutely convinced he’s one of or the greatest WR/best in class for 2021. I don’t know why. Chase is not a speed burner for ‘them’ to get excited about…like they all fell for Henry Ruggs (and Mecole Hardman before that). College Football Metrics| 3 2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT APRIL 3, 2021 Chase is not a physical freak/specimen in terms of size…he’s plain-Jane 6’0”/205 (estimate) WR. With the average height he’s not a blown-up Hulk-like, quasi-RB like A.J. Brown, a guy built to destroy defenders after the catch. Chase is not slow, but he doesn’t have breakaway speed to be special after the catch. He doesn’t display a great vertical or possess special hands. If Chase is only average/OK/good in most of the scouting attributes – then how can he be the clear best WR in this draft? Narrator voice: He isn’t. Keep in mind, there is one thing you can bet on (in NFL scouting) and win every time – whatever WR prospect the NFL deems as ‘the best’, the first (or second) WR taken in drafts…then that/those wide receiver(s) FOR SURE will NOT be the best NFL WRs from that particular draft within 1-3 years of looking back. In 2020, Ruggs-Jeudy went #1-2 off the board and that was a monumental mistake. Those guys aren’t even in the top 5-10 among WR talents from that class. That doesn’t mean they stink…just means they are not ‘the best’ or ‘elite’…or worthy of such high draft picks. In 2019, Marquise Brown and N’Keal Harry were the #1-2/only 1st-round WRs taken…as Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, Diontae Johnson, Terry McLaurin were taken later. In 2018, D.J. Moore and Calvin Ridley were the #1-2/only 1st-round WRs taken…as Courtland Sutton, D.J.
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