2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT
APRIL 3, 2021
NFL Draft 2020 Scouting Report: WR Ja’Marr Chase, LSU (Update)
*WR grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.
*WR-B stands for "Big-WR," a classification we use to separate the more physical, downfield/over-the- top, heavy-red-zone-threat-type WRs. Our WR-S/"Small-WRs" are profiled by our computer more as slot and/or possession-type WRs who are typically less physical and rely more on speed/agility to operate underneath the defense and/or use big speed to get open deep...they are not used as weapons in the red zone as much.
*4/3/21 UPDATE*
Well, a lot has developed with the Ja’Marr Chase scouting case since my February scouting. Chase had his Pro Day, it was good…better than I projected in some areas…not as good in some others…but it was hyped to the moon regardless.
The mainstream was on Chase as their top guy pretty early…for various reasons, but his Pro Day 40-time (4.3s) and vertical (41”) has him solidified as everyone’s top WR. There are a few football people who are DeVonta Smith dissenters, with him as their #1 WR prospect – but by and large people are turned off by ‘skinny’ (DeVonta) and are attracted to the shirtless photos of a very yoked Chase (and not looking at any pictures of the other similarly/more yoked WR prospects, but I digress).
Chase is THEIR guy. Lock it in.
But in February 2021, I scouted Chase (pre-Pro Day) and was like ‘shoulder shrug’. Definitely not the best WR prospect I’d seen in recent years…or in 2021. He looked OK, but I didn’t understand ‘why all the hysteria’? Chase is OK/good, but in a sea of good and great WR prospects…why people are fixated on him…I don’t quite understand, but that’s what THEY do…all the time. Henry Ruggs became ‘it’ guy in 2020…Marquise Brown in 2019. So, THEIR track record isn’t great.
So why am I updating Chase? Two reasons…
1) The Pro Day had some sweet measurables for me to reconsider and update our grading with.
2) There’s so much hysteria, I wanted to look a third time to see if I was a mental patient on this. I’m usually not, but I’m willing to admit where I am wrong. I don’t care if I find that I made a mistake prior –
College Football Metrics| 1
2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT
APRIL 3, 2021
I want to/need to be ‘right’ in the end. I would like to be ‘right’ first, but I’ll take ‘right’ eventually…versus holding a losing hand. So, I took another look…
I put on tape of his 2019 versus Auburn and Florida, to start…and then I just stopped re-watching. It’s the same guy. He’s good. He’s fine. He too often needs pick plays to really spring him open/beat top coverage. He’ll play in the NFL. He’ll start in the NFL. But is he the best WR prospect in 2021? No. Is he top five? I don’t think so. Top 10? Maybe.
I see nothing special about Chase’s game that warrants a top 10 NFL Draft pick, especially in comparison to the absolute tidal wave of legit WR talents flooding the college football border into the NFL. From a supply-demand aspect, I don’t get it.
Chase is an above average-to-good-to-very good athlete. Nice size, solid frame with athleticism. But his WR play is a snooze. You can’t watch DeVonta Smith or 2019 teammate Justin Jefferson or Iowa’s Brandon Smith or Rondale Moore (I could keep going) tape and then watch Ja’Marr Chase on tape and walk away thinking he looked the best. Aesthetically – it’s not there. I saw better-looking Ruggs-Jeudy- Lamb tape last year, and I thought they were all overhyped, and I was right. Again, Chase isn’t bad…there’s just nothing all that special here.
Can Chase get drafted top 10 overall and pushed as an instant-starter and put up some of the best WR numbers in the 2021 WR rookie class? Yep. Jerry Jeudy sucks, and he did that…in part, because he started day one. Chase will for sure get a push, but that doesn’t mean he’s better than other guys who don’t get an initial free pass/push. Bryan Edwards is 2x better than Ja’Marr Chase but won’t get the same opportunity out of the gates.
My grade did rise with Chase’s Pro Day – he’s faster than I expected, more leg-power (vertical and broad) than I expected…but the 10-yard time is weak (and that’s where he needs to be strong for his interior work he’ll be asked to do primarily) and his shuttle was terrific, but his three-cone was OK/good. Off the snap, on tape, Chase is ‘meh’ and his times kinda confirm it. He gets better with more (long) speed downfield…but is a 6’0”/201 mediocre hands WR going to be a monster deep ball guy? Maybe. But that profile doesn’t warrant a top 10 overall selection in the 2021 NFL Draft. A lot of guys can run in the 4.3s/4.4s and go deep…but too many of them are taller/more reach than Chase.
College Football Metrics| 2
2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT
APRIL 3, 2021
My new grade and comp table (his old report and comps below):
WR Draft Last First College H H W Power Speed Hands Score Yr Strngth Agility Metric Metric Metric 7.369 2021 Chase Ja'Marr LSU 6 0.3 201 9.84 9.39 7.58 7.614 2005 Murphy Terrence Texas A&M 6 0.7 202 9.38 9.50 6.83 7.467 2020 Reagor Jalen TCU 5 10.8 206 9.82 7.47 8.11 8.630 2010 Cruz Victor UMass 5 11.5 206 12.10 7.61 9.75 6.495 2020 Osborn K.J. Miami 5 11.4 203 9.41 6.48 7.32
Terrence Murphy was a 2nd-round pick of Green Bay in 2005…and lasted one NFL season. I’m not saying Chase’s career is headed that way, but his profile for the draft most closely matches his.
When you think of Jalen Reagor – just think about how hysterical everyone was with this college talent this time last year (and every highly ranked WR prospect)? Reagor was a 1st-round projection for the mainstream…and a 1st-round pick in reality. Now, do you even care?
For the second comp board run in a row, the computer fancies K.J. Osborn as a top comp – and I would say, I see it very much, and what if Osborn played a 2019 season with Joe Burrow instead of Chase getting to do so? And, a reminder, Osborn is an interesting sleeper WR floating around in the NFL…and has a lot of physical/athletic comps with Chase.
======
**ORIGINAL FEBRUARY REPORT**
Is it just me? I just cannot see what the big deal is on Ja’Marr Chase. I mean, he’s good…but I see little- to-no signs of ‘great’ here at all. But the entire rest of the football universe seems absolutely convinced he’s one of or the greatest WR/best in class for 2021.
I don’t know why.
Chase is not a speed burner for ‘them’ to get excited about…like they all fell for Henry Ruggs (and Mecole Hardman before that).
College Football Metrics| 3
2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT
APRIL 3, 2021
Chase is not a physical freak/specimen in terms of size…he’s plain-Jane 6’0”/205 (estimate) WR. With the average height he’s not a blown-up Hulk-like, quasi-RB like A.J. Brown, a guy built to destroy defenders after the catch. Chase is not slow, but he doesn’t have breakaway speed to be special after the catch. He doesn’t display a great vertical or possess special hands.
If Chase is only average/OK/good in most of the scouting attributes – then how can he be the clear best WR in this draft?
Narrator voice: He isn’t.
Keep in mind, there is one thing you can bet on (in NFL scouting) and win every time – whatever WR prospect the NFL deems as ‘the best’, the first (or second) WR taken in drafts…then that/those wide receiver(s) FOR SURE will NOT be the best NFL WRs from that particular draft within 1-3 years of looking back.
In 2020, Ruggs-Jeudy went #1-2 off the board and that was a monumental mistake. Those guys aren’t even in the top 5-10 among WR talents from that class. That doesn’t mean they stink…just means they are not ‘the best’ or ‘elite’…or worthy of such high draft picks.
In 2019, Marquise Brown and N’Keal Harry were the #1-2/only 1st-round WRs taken…as Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, Diontae Johnson, Terry McLaurin were taken later.
In 2018, D.J. Moore and Calvin Ridley were the #1-2/only 1st-round WRs taken…as Courtland Sutton, D.J. Chark, and Michael Gallup fell.
In 2017, Corey Davis, Mike Williams, and John Ross went in the first 10 picks of the draft. Kenny Golladay went #96. Curtis Samuel and Cooper Kupp went in the 2nd-round,
You get the idea. But it’s important to re-state – THEIR consensus ‘best’ WR is not to be immediately trusted or accepted…when THEY say some WR prospect is the best, it’s usually more likely a sign that they are NOT.
Now, let’s get to why I ‘don’t see it’ with Ja’Marr Chase (beyond all the physical attributes being ‘meh’)…
I studied his 2019 tape (he opted-out of 2020 to protect his draft status) against Alabama and Florida the most, for obvious reasons – he was facing real defenses/top NFL prospect corners. Diggs/Surtain with Alabama and C.J. Henderson/Florida. We concentrate on his Alabama and Florida games more than the others -- Why do I care what he did against Vanderbilt in 2019 (10-229-4)? How does that help with NFL comparisons? It doesn’t.
My notes in his games versus the top opponents:
-- Chase had 6 catches for 140 yards and a TD versus Alabama. Good, right? Well, his second biggest play was off an illegal pick/rub route (not called) that sprung him free. His 33-yard TD catch came
College Football Metrics| 4
2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT
APRIL 3, 2021
when Trevon Diggs slipped and fell in coverage and Chase ran wide open and scored his TD. Outside of those two plays, Chase wasn’t much of a factor/ was easy for Alabama to handle.
-- 7 catches for 127 yards and 2 TDs vs. Florida…his big play a 54-yard TD, which came off another pick/rub where C.J. Henderson was knocked off his coverage and left Chase wide open again for an easy toss and run score.
Most of the activity I saw with Chase in the big games…was nothing special he did or created himself.
-- C.J. Henderson (#10 pick of JAX…should have been #3 to DET, but they’re idiots) was all over Chase in their game against each other. Henderson didn’t always cover Chase…because Florida realized there were other imminent/scary threats to worry about.
-- Trevon Diggs (DAL 2nd-round pick 2020) played Chase fine in their game. He had no issues covering Chase.
Top NFL CB prospects got the best of the battle when matched up with Ja’Marr Chase.
-- Side note, but pertinent…
Rewatching these 2019 LSU games…it was even more obvious how much better Justin Jefferson and Clyde Edwards-Helaire were than Chase. When you scout/watch a game solely focused on Chase, you’re going to see the times when Jefferson and CEH (and others) got the ball. Doing that, I’d see Chase being so dull (by comparison), so average/OK/good…that when Jefferson or CEH made a play, it seemed 10x better, more exciting by comparison – and that is saying something (for scouting).
Watching the same tape, the same games, the same QB, the same coverage guys/defense…Justin Jefferson leapt off the tape, as did Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Chase did not. To me, that speaks volume.
Never once did I see a moment with Chase, where I was like ‘wow’…against top defenses/coverage. There are some nice moments versus Vandy and Ole Miss, moments where he makes a medium catch and then takes off to the house…but even in those moments – he’s fast but not blazing. Never really a ‘wow’ moment…just nice/good plays.
There are positives to speak of with Chase. I’m not trying to make a case that he’s a bust – I’m just saying there are too many ‘meh’ markers here for Chase to be seen as the clear cut, obvious top WR prospect in this draft.
Chase is a ‘good’ WR. He’s competent. He has solid hands. He has 4.4 or 4.5 speed (I’m thinking 4.5+). He has an excellent attribute – he is great at coming to a dead stop in a sprint in his route, leaving defenders unable to adjust as fast, and thus presenting Chase as open on a timing route for his QB. When you have that gift, and you were lucky enough to play with Joe Burrow – it’s chocolate and peanut butter. If Chase played at South Carolina…you might hardly know he existed. He’d be rated like
College Football Metrics| 5
2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT
APRIL 3, 2021
WR Shi Smith (4th+ round pick)…a 2021 SEC WR prospect burned/hidden by terrible QB play he had to deal with.
Chase has NFL talent. But in this era of bountiful/plentiful WR prospects – Chase is just another ‘good hand’. There’s nothing overly special about him. He got to play WR with a great QB who had the greatest college season performance ever, and Chase had the luxury of not being the main focus of defenses – opportunity flooded his way. You could plug 10-20 other WRs in this draft into the same spot for LSU in 2019 and they would’ve killed it.
One other problem/knock on Chase…he’s not too swift. Watching Chase in interviews…he’s not too bright (my personal opinion), and my sources tell me he’s a bit immature. You don’t have to be a genius to play WR in the NFL. You don’t have to be mature even…but it is a red flag. You better be AMAZING to go with your immaturity, to have it overlooked. Chase, to me, just isn’t special enough to not take into consideration that he might not be totally professional or mentally ready for the spotlight being thrust on him.
My one sentence scouting summary – Ja’Marr Chase is not special.
And, yet…some NFL team is likely going to pay a top 10 draft pick for this.
Ja’Marr Chase, Through the Lens of Our WR Scouting Algorithm:
It’s not worth trying to dissect the numbers from 2019 for Chase, because Burrow made it a video game result for many. Hell, Burrow made Thaddeus Moss look good…and people thinking he was a top 5 tight end prospect to start the 2020 NFL Draft year.
I look back at his Florida and Alabama games in 2019, and if I take away the ‘luck’ plays I described – then Chase had 5-6 catch games for 60-90 yards otherwise. Nice, but in the context of the sheer LSU volume of output…it’s not that great/special.
The only number you’ll want to know from Chase – what is his real 40-time, three-cone/shuttle, and hand size at the Pro Days this year. And if I were his agent, I would have him make up an excuse to skip his Pro Day and not run for anyone ever. Right now, the public/the media has nothing but GREAT plugged into Chase’s scouting resume. Any reality that isn’t great will reveal the Wizard of Oz here. He has to stay hidden.
One of three things will happen in March at the LSU Pro Day (or EXOS regional combine):
1) He skips it all – and then you’ll know the con is on (and he’s smart to roll with the con).
College Football Metrics| 6
2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT
APRIL 3, 2021
2) He participates and inevitably disappoints with an average speed time, and average/OK everything…and then some of the steam comes off his prospect status in the media. I mean, we’re talking about a possible top 10 pick WR here, which is utterly ridiculous in today’s NFL for a WR, but it’s a LOT of money for Chase. He needs to keep this con up. An average/good Pro Day reveals a ‘human’ WR who doesn’t have top 10 characteristics/measurements – and down the draft board he will tumble.
3) He participates and blows everyone away with 4.3-4.4 speed and sub-7.0 three-cone with 10” hands - - and then everyone loses their mind, and I have to reconsider my eyeballs.
My 2021 Pro Day projections (besides assuming he will skip everything)…
6’0”/205, 9.33/9.5” hands
Low 4.5s 40-time. +/- 7.00 three-cone
*To his advantage, this Draft season, he’s had six months to prepare/to game the Combine-like drills. He should do better than his tape from 2019. If he doesn’t, or he skips…then there should be worry.
The Historical WR Prospects to Whom Ja’Marr Chase Most Compares Within Our System:
Here’s the thing about the Carlos Henderson comp…
Henderson was a 3rd-round pick in 2017…coming off a banner, big output year in a dominant offense in Conference USA. He was dominant in college, and a great kick returner (where Chase was not involved), a scout’s fave sleeper WR…but he had maturity/adjustment to the NFL issues too and went on to become an utter flameout/bust in the NFL.
82-1,525-19 = Henderson in 13 games in 2016
84-1,780-20 = Chase in 14 games in 2019
*And if I hear about how special Chase was in production, I’m going to scream. 10+ other WRs from the 2021 Draft class will have similar per game numbers as Chase did in 2019…much less every draft class the past few years.
But Henderson had 2 kick return TDs and rushed the ball 14 times for 9.5 ypc and 2 more TDs. Chase wasn’t involved in the return game and had one whole carry for 5 yards in his college career. If he’s such a special player with the ball in his hands, why didn’t LSU give him a few more touches in other ways? Not a definitive knock…just a question/observation/concern.
College Football Metrics| 7
2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT
APRIL 3, 2021
The Henderson comp really makes me worry even more here…
WR Draft Last First College H H W Power Speed Hands Score Yr Strngth Agility Metric Metric Metric 6.852 2021 Chase Ja'Marr LSU 6 0.0 205 10.05 5.87 7.36 6.047 2017 Henderson Carlos La Tech 5 11.0 199 8.69 5.29 8.07 6.495 2020 Osborn K.J. Miami 5 11.4 203 9.41 6.48 7.32 6.538 2012 Kearse Jermaine Washington 6 1.1 209 9.73 7.10 8.37 5.798 2020 Lipscomb Kalija Vanderbilt 5 11.7 207 8.19 3.05 8.49 7.563 2010 Tate Golden Notre Dame 5 10.3 199 10.02 7.57 8.97
*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a Small-WR prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of a Small-WR going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL Small- WR. All of the WR ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances. Overall WR score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced. Mixed with all the physical measurement metrics, rated historically in our database. “Power-Strength” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical-size profiling, bench press strength, etc. High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone. “Speed-Agility” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/create separation. “Hands” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance, and overall this projects the combination of performance and physical data for the next level.
2021 NFL Draft Outlook:
Chase is a hot top 3-5-10 pick in most mock drafts in January-February, but I suspect that’s going to fade into a #11+ pick projection come March and April. There’s just not a great case for Chase and the importance of the WR position is not such that it warrants a top 10 pick. This is a WR loving, media
College Football Metrics| 8
2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT
APRIL 3, 2021
attraction ranking at this point. They all worshipped Lamb-Ruggs-Jeudy last year, more than they do Chase now…and their hype and love could NOT turn those guys into top 10 picks last year. It likely won’t again this year. I say Chase winds up falling on the real draft day to a #15-20+ pick.
If I were an NFL GM, I’d have little interest in Chase in the context of all the other options and price tags…and then seeing his price tag is ‘1st-round’, I’d laugh and pretty much write him off as someone not to waste background research time and money on. He should be a 3rd-4th-round prospect at best…and even then, I’m not interested. I would rather have (example) 2020 3rd-round pick Bryan Edwards, among many others available 3rd-round and later.
NFL Outlook:
Chase is going to enter the NFL with much fanfare, but so did Ruggs-Jeudy-Lamb…and where did that get them? Who is as excited about them today, a year later? Chase will get opportunity because of his draft stock – that’s just the way the NFL works. And Chase is OK enough to do fine with the instant opportunity, but I think he’ll disappoint and people will start looking past him this time next year. The buzz today is as good as it is ever going to get for Chase…he’ll never be able to live up to it.
He’s going to go have a nice B-C grade career…with C-D grade possibilities and disappointment. It’s not his fault, he’s been propped up into something he could never achieve…maybe no WR could achieve it.
Copyright Statement
Copyright at date and time signed below by R.C. Fischer
All rights reserved. All content is for entertainment purposes only and TFA is not responsible or liable for personal adverse outcomes nor are any game results or forecasting guaranteed. Past results do not predict future outcomes. We are not held liable for any personal loses incurred. We are solely here to produce and provide content for recreational purposes. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other noncommercial uses permitted by copyright law. For permission requests, email the publisher at [email protected]
Signature______Date______4/3/2021
College Football Metrics| 9