Status of current research on the implication of climate change on built environment

Lisa Guan School of Engineering Systems, Queensland University of Technology, ,

Abstract: The cyclical interaction between climate change and building performance is of dynamic nature and both elements are essentially the cause and the effect of each other. On one hand, buildings contribute significantly to the global warming process. On the other hand, climate change is also expected to impact on many aspects of building performance. In this paper, the status of current research on the implication of climate change on built environment is reviewed. It is found that although present investigation has covered broad areas of research, these studies are generally only limited to the qualitative analyses. It is also highlighted that, although it is widely realized that reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the building sector is very important, the adoption of a complementary adaptation strategy to prepare the building for a range of climate change scenarios is also necessary. Due to the lack of holistic approach to generate future hourly weather data, various approaches have been used to generate different key weather variables. This ad hoc situation has seriously hindered the application of building simulation techniques to the climate change impact studies, in particular, in providing quantitative information for policy and design development.

Conference theme: Indicators of sustainable development: space, energy, water, waste Keywords: climate change, built environment, building research, weather data

1. INTRODUCTION

One of the main functions of buildings is to act as a climatic modifier, separating the indoor built environment from the external climate. It is however also widely recognised (Figure 1) that the cycling interaction between climate change and building performance is of dynamic nature and both are essentially the cause and the effect of each other (Guan et al, 2004).

Figure 1: The cyclical interaction between buildings and the external climate

41st Annual Conference of the Architectural Science Association ANZAScA 2007 at Deakin University 117 On one hand, buildings contribute significantly to the global warming process. Worldwide, the WorldWatch Institute estimates that buildings consume some 40% of the world energy and 16% of the water used annually (Roodman and Lenssen, 1995). In Australia, buildings in particular are a major contributor to energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions due to their heavy reliance on grid-supplied electricity which is mostly generated from fossil fuels (mostly coal). Specifically, it has been found that the building sector in Australia produces some 95 Mt CO2 greenhouse gases annually, which is more than all the emissions of the cars running on the Australian roads (AGO, 2000). On the other hand, climate change is also expected to impact on many aspects of building performance (Camilleri, et al 2001; UKCIP/EPSRC, 2001), including: x Higher building energy consumption. Global warming may require more use and higher capacity of air- conditioning equipment to meet the required level of occupant comfort inside the buildings (Sailor and Pavlova, 2003); x Deteriorating internal thermal environment, such as more overheating in summer. This can impact on occupant health, comfort and productivities (Gwilliam and Jones, 2002). It has been estimated that global warming is currently contributing to the death of about 160,000 people every year (Bhattacharya, 2003) x External fabric. The durability of building fabrics could be affected by increased storm, rain, flood and other weather conditions (Gwilliam and Jones, 2002); x Structural integrity, such as wind and snow loading, foundation movement (Lisø et al., 2003, Larsson, 2003, Sanders and Phillipson, 2003 and Kasperski, 1998); x Construction process. This may be disrupted due to adverse weather condition; x Service infrastructure, such as inadequacy of existing water resources and drainage to deal with storm loads. In the following, the status of current research and development in these broad areas, in particular the building thermal performance and energy uses, and the adaptation strategies will be reviewed. The current trends, the gaps in knowledge, and new research initiatives will also be highlighted.

2. STATUS OF CURRENT RESEARCH AND GAPS OF KNOWLEDGE

2.1 Generic issues of the industry

It has been found that existing work on the impact of climate change on built environment has covered broad areas of research, but generally has only qualitative analysis and is of early exploratory nature (Salagnac, 2004). These works have also highlighted the importance of the consideration of local context, the role of building regulation and insurance industry, and the divergence of interests between different stakeholders. Consideration of local context The importance of local context in mediating the various impacts of climate change has been recognised by many researchers, including those from the UK (Sanders and Phillipson, 2003, Hunt, 2004), Japan (Shimoda, 2003), New Zealand (Camilleri et al., 2001), Canada (Larsson, 2003), South Africa (du Plessis, et al, 2003) and Germany (Deilmann, 2004). It is realised that different regions and/or nations have different geographic features and economic strengths. This will determine the types of impacts and dictate their action/strategies of responses. For instance, different from the other papers which consider the impacts of multiple factors of flooding, overheating, wind damage and storm damage etc (Camilleri et al., 2001, Sanders and Phillipson, 2003), Shimoda (2003) chose to deal almost entirely with warming in the urban heat island (in Japan). Moreover, in contrast to the papers from industrialised countries, du Plessis et al. (2003) felt that the present debate on climate change in the developing world appears to be a luxury that only the developed world can afford. Role of building regulation and insurance industry The role of building regulation and design codes has also been discussed by Lisø et al. (2003), Sanders and Phillipson (2003), Larsson (2004), White (2004) and Lowe (2004). It is agreed by all that building regulation plays a crucial role in the anticipation and avoidance of risk. The importance of shifting from a reliance on historical data to a reliance on predicted future data is also recognised, as it is needed to describe the conditions which buildings and other infrastructure will need to withstand in the future. It is argued that simply raising performance standards as a response to climate change, without dealing with the issue of non-compliance with existing standards, may not be effective and may run the risk of undermining the legitimacy of regulation generally (Lowe, 2003). In parallel, the role of the insurance industry in dealing with risk due to climate change has also been discussed by Hertin et al. (2003), Lisø et al. (2003), Mills (2003), Milne (2004) and Salagnac (2004). Their studies have highlighted the complexity of the issues in this area and the inter-disciplinary approach needed to deal effectively with them (Lowe, 2003). Divergence of interests between different stakeholders

41st Annual Conference of the Architectural Science Association ANZAScA 2007 at Deakin University 118 The problem of divergence of interests of different built environment stakeholders has been discussed by Hertin et al (2003) and Larsson (2004). They found that one of the most obvious potential divergences is between the construction industry and owners and operators of buildings. Other divergences also exist within the web of interests in the built environment – for example between the construction industry and the insurance industry, and between the insurance industry and building owners/operators. It is therefore suggested that a systematic understanding of conflicts and divergences of interest and of the interplay between different construction industry and built environment agendas be carried out. This information would be essential to the process of policy formation and implementation in this area (Lowe, 2003).

2.2 Generation of future hourly weather data for building simulation study

Because energy, comfort, and lighting performance of buildings depends on the complex interactions between a large number of energy transfer mechanisms, building parameters, and the external weather condition, computer simulation approach is often the only practical way to bring a systems integration problem of this magnitude within the grasp of building consultants (Judkoff and Neymark, 1995). Particularly, because most existing buildings are designed to operate in the current weather condition, the thermal performance of such buildings under the conditions of climate warming is therefore unclear and remains a great concern, given the rate of CO2 buildup around the globe. However, because most of building simulation programs require hourly weather data input for their thermal comfort and energy evaluation, the provision of suitable forecast weather data for the future climate is essential. To meet this requirement, several different approaches have been proposed (Figure 2). From simple to complex, they may be broadly classed as the extrapolating statistic method, the constant offset method, the stochastic weather model and the global climate models (Guan et al, 2005). It is found that among these four methods, except for the constant offset method, the other (three) methods appear to be either incapable of producing hourly weather data (for extrapolating statistic method) or be too complicated and require the metrologist specialists to construct and run the weather model (for the stochastic weather model and global climate model). Therefore, constant offset methods are often preferred by many building simulation specialists (Scott et al, 1994, Mullan, 1999, Cullen, 2001, Degelman, 2002, Crawley, 2003 and Belcher et al, 2005).

Figure 2: The relationship between different methods Because of the lack of a holistic approach to generate future hourly weather for the use of building simulation technique, various approaches have also been adopted in different studies. Some studies only considered the change in temperature (Cullen, 2001), while other have included the potential change in air humidity with different assumptions applied (i.e. Scott et al, 1994, Mullan, 1999, Degelman, 2002). Although Belcher et al, (2005) has summarised the common approaches, called morphing approach, to implement constant offset method used by different researchers into a standard set of procedure, however, this approach only focuses on the morphing of individual weather parameters, while the potential cross-correlation between different weather variables is ignored. The approaches to deal with the situation when there is no enough or reliable information on projection of future change for some specific weather parameters have also not been developed. Overall, it may be found that the above situation has seriously hindered the application of building simulation technique to the global warming impact study. It is therefore suggested that the development of a framework to convert the available local historical weather data and projected future regional weather data to a format suitable for the uses of

41st Annual Conference of the Architectural Science Association ANZAScA 2007 at Deakin University 119 building simulation program is essential and is required to stimulate the research in the impact study of global warming on buildings.

2.3 Quantitative analysis of building internal thermal environment under global warming conditions

So far, most quantified studies regarding the impact of global warming on the built environment have focused on the prediction of energy use of buildings. A number of different approaches have been employed, including the empirical degree-day method (Rosenthal et al, 1995 and Belzer et al, 1996, Sailor and Pavlova, 2003), and the more fundamental building energy simulation models (Scott et al, 1994, Sheppard et al, 1997, Cullen, 2001, Aguiar et al, 2002, Degelman, 2002 and Crawley, 2003). Overall, these studies are all able to confirm that under global warming, the contrast between cooling and heating energy consumption would be more significant, but the extent would vary from region to region. Where heating and cooling are provided by different fuels, it is also shown that these variations would have significant influence on the design and operations of energy delivery systems. While most of the current research work concentrates on the prediction of energy use by buildings, there appear to be few studies on building internal thermal environment affected by global warming. Despite the recognition of the importance of updating design weather data for building design to ensure buildings provide a comfortable indoor thermal environment (Pretlove and Oreszczyn, 1998, and Chow et al, 2002, Wright, 2002, Van Paassen and Luo, 2002), few previous studies presented quantified information on the consequence of change in indoor thermal comfort due to a potentially warming climate. It is particularly noted here that existing and most new buildings were only built to deal with the climate current at the time of the construction. For a building to be truly sustaining, it needs to endure and adapt to climate change incrementally over time (Steemers, 2003 and Bullen, 2004). Integrating innovative retrofit measures with the requirements of climate change adaptation is therefore an immediate necessary task for built environment research (Bullen, 2004; Steemers, 2003; and Lowe, 2004).

2.4 Quantitative research on the adaptation strategies

With the understanding of the effect of global warming on the building energy and thermal performance, adaptation strategies based on assessment of potential changes in regional climate and their impacts are also necessary (CSIRO, 2001a). Corresponding changes in design criteria and operation procedures will also need to be developed in order to minimise adverse impacts and maximize benefits from predicted global warming (CSIRO, 2001). However, the extent to which the built environment community has engaged with climate change has hitherto been focussed on the reduction of energy use and carbon emissions to mitigate change, thus less attention has been paid to the challenge of adapting to climate change (Lowe, 2003, LisǛ et al, 2003, Larsson, 2003, Hasegawa, 2004). It appears that much of the technical and policy-making community has been reluctant to address the problem of adaptation (Lowe, 2003). Within the climate impacts literature, there is now a growing realisation and emphasis on adaptation and the need to enhance adaptive capacity, both in developed and developing countries (Kelly and Adger, 2000, Burton et al., 2002, Lowe, 2003). There is a general view that some form of adaptation may be able to reduce climate change impacts on the built environment (Camilleri et al, 2001, Hertin et al 2003, Larsson 2003, Liso et al 2003, Steemers 2003, Lowe 2004, and Rousseau 2004). Moreover, adaptation is also gaining increasing recognition as an effective strategy to improve the sustainability of existing buildings (Ball 1999, Kohler 1999, Cooper 2001, Kohler and Hassler 2002, Mills 2003 and Larsson 2004). However, given the early stages of development of this field, this research generally displays a tentative approach with only qualitative analysis (Salagnac, 2004). None of the investigations has been based on rigorous quantitative analysis. Currently, one of the interesting topics is the debate on the relationship between adaptation and mitigation. The potential for both synergy and conflict between adaptation and mitigation measures and strategies requires the development of integrated rather than separate responses (Lowe, 2001a, b, Steemers, 2003 and Lowe 2004). It is also believed that there is tight intertwine between the issues of adaptation and mitigation (Camilleri et al, 2001, Shimoda, 2003 and Mills, 2003). Mills (2003) described the particular dual roles that energy-efficient and renewable energy technologies can play in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions while increasing adaptive capacity by making buildings more disaster-resilient. Steemers (2003) also emphasized the integration between adaptation and energy efficient design. This places a premium on the pursuit of synergies between different agendas, and specifically on the development of integrated climate change strategies for the built environment, which address the problems of both mitigation and adaptation. Lowe (2002) argued that a clear distinction between adaptation and mitigation strategies may not always be unhelpful, because there are potentially significant interactions between the two classes of measures. Many researchers also suggested different social and behaviour strategies to the global warming. For example, Hargreaves et al, (2002) suggested a method of paper-based publication as a climate change mitigation and adaptation tool to encourage individuals to think about the connections between their actions and impacts on the climate and to enable people to take action to prepare for the likely impacts. Steemers (2003) discussed the adaptive potential of buildings and people, while Shimoda (2003) referred to the Kansai ‘summer eco-style campaign’ to reduce the impact of the urban heat island by social engineering. It is also realised that the problem of understanding the

41st Annual Conference of the Architectural Science Association ANZAScA 2007 at Deakin University 120 factors that determine the extent to which they are implemented is complex, requiring significant further research (Lowe, 2003, White, 2004).

3. CURRENT TRENDS AND NEW RESEARCH INITIATIVES

From the above review, it can be seen that the impact of climate change on the built environment is currently under– researched (UKCIP/EPSRC, 2001). In recognition of this, several research centres have now been established around the world to address this issue. For instance, CIB (The International Council for Research and Innovation in Building and Construction) Working Commission 108 – “Climate Change and the Built Environment” was set up in 2002 for researchers, designers, regulators and CIB members to “exchange information and ideas from their own countries on dealing with the great challenge of climate change and its effect on buildings, their occupants and sustainability” (Levermore, 2002). Special issues of professional journals have also been published to highlight the current state of the research, including the Journal of Building Services Engineering Research and Technology (Vol. 23, No. 4, 2002), and Journal of Building Research & Information (Vol. 31, No. 3–4, 2003, Vol. 32, No. 1, 2004, and Vol. 35 No. 4, 2007 ). In early 2005, the Australian Government, through the Department of the Environment and Heritage also called for a tender to carry out a scoping study into measures to identify and assess the need to adapt buildings for the unavoidable consequences of climate change. Recently, the Australian Government also announced in the 2007–08 Budget a $170 million package to help Australian industries and communities to manage the effects of climate change. Federal Minister for the Environment and Water Resources, Mr Malcolm Turnbull, said that the additional funding include $26 million for setting up an Australian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation, $100 million for programme funding for the Centre, and $44 million for an Adaptation Flagship to be established in the CSIRO (AGO, 2007). Overall, because greenhouse gas concentrations are continuing to increase, the issues of implication of global warming on built environment will become more urgent and increasingly more significant. There is clearly also a significant gap in this area of research, particularly in terms of provision of quantified information and systematic case studies for different climate types.

4. CONCLUSION

The cycling interaction between climate change and building performance is of dynamic nature and both are essentially the cause and the effect of each other. On one hand, buildings contribute significantly to the global warming process. On the other hand, climate change is also expected to impact on many aspects of building performance, which may include building energy consumption, internal thermal environment, external fabric, structural integrity, construction process and service infrastructure. In this paper, the status of current research on the implication of climate change on built environment has been reviewed. The current trends and the gaps in these knowledge have been highlighted. It has been found that although the present research on the impact of climate change on built environment has covered broad areas of research, it is generally only limited to the qualitative analyses. So far, most quantified studies have also been typically focusing on the prediction of energy use of buildings, while studies on the impact of climate change on building internal thermal environment and adaptation strategies appear to be relatively rare. It has also been highlighted that although it is widely realized that reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the building sector to limit future climate change is very important, the adoption of complementary measures to prepare the building for a range of climate change scenarios is also necessary. Moreover, due to the lack of holistic approach to generate future hourly weather data, various approaches were adopted to generate different key weather variables. This ad hoc situation has seriously hindered the application of building simulation technique to the climate change impact study, in particular, to provide quantitative information for policy and design development.

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