San Francisco 49Ers
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San Francisco 49ers 2018 record: 4-12 Total DVOA: -20.7% (30th) 2019 Mean Projection: 7.7 wins On the Clock (0-4): 12% Pythagorean Wins: 5.6 (27th) Offense: -15.4% (27th) Postseason Odds: 31.1% Mediocrity (5-7): 35% Snap-Weighted Age: 25.7 (28th) Defense: 5.7% (23rd) Super Bowl Odds: 3.5% Playoff Contender (8-10): 37% Average Opponent: 1.1% (10th) Special Teams: 0.3% (14th) Proj. Avg. Opponent: 0.9% (13th) Super Bowl Contender (11+): 15% 2018: The Handsome Jimmy G era stumbles out of the blocks. 2019: Don’t trust an offense built on overpaying running backs. y now, we were supposed to know more about this 49ers Reuben Foster, the linebacker who was released after he was B regime. It was January of 2017 when John Lynch was arrested three separate times in 2018; and Mike McGlinchey, yanked off the Fox Sports studios set and placed behind the the right tackle who led the NFL in blown blocks last year. general manager’s desk, with Kyle Shanahan joining him as Will the 2019 draft class have more success in Santa Clara? head coach shortly thereafter. That fall, a midseason trade for Nick Bosa will likely be a good NFL player, but our Sack- Jimmy Garoppolo looked to set the franchise in the right di- SEER projections say he may have been a reach with the sec- rection, as the 49ers won each of his five starts to close the ond overall pick. His production at Ohio State was modest, year. When Garoppolo signed a massive extension after that and his performance at the combine was below average for season, most observers in San Francisco felt that the founda- most successful edge rushers. Our projections aren’t thrilled tion had been built. Even if immediate postseason contention about the wide receivers Lynch found in the second and third was unrealistic, 2018 should have seen enough improvement rounds either. Neither South Carolina’s Deebo Samuel nor that the team would need only minor tweaks to make a playoff Baylor’s Jalen Hurd did much to stand out in a mediocre pool push in 2019. of wideout talent. Unfortunately, things didn’t work out that way. Jerick McK- The obvious caveat here is that all of these players are innon, Lynch’s shiny new free-agent signee, tore his ACL in young and still have time to develop into solid pros. The point practice before the season even started. Garoppolo tore his is not to condemn Lynch for his failures, only to show that the own ACL just three weeks into the year. Each of the top three jury remains very much out on his drafting acuity. wide receivers was also lost for a significant chunk of time. A It is more fair, though, to evaluate Lynch’s free-agent six-game losing streak all but eliminated San Francisco from spending, where his prevailing strategy seems to be “solve the playoff race before Halloween, and save for a handful of all problems by severely overpaying a running back.” Our individual highlights—a practice-squad quarterback leading cost-benefit analysis found that Kyle Juszczyk was the most the team to victory here, a tight end setting records there—the overpaid free-agent running back of 2017, and Lynch doubled 2018 season for the San Francisco 49ers was largely a waste down on that by making McKinnon the most overpaid free- of time. One year later, we are left with unanswered questions agent running back of 2018. This year he added another veter- concerning Lynch’s ability to build a roster, Shanahan’s profi- an runner: Tevin Coleman, formerly of Atlanta. That contract ciency at managing a team, and Garoppolo’s chances of living seems much more reasonable on the surface but given San up to his contract extension. Francisco’s existing surplus at the position, there were better We’ll begin with Lynch, who if nothing else has managed ways to spend that money. The roster still includes Juszczyk, to rebuild his roster through the draft. Lynch has now selected McKinnon, Matt Breida, Jeff Wilson, and Raheem Mostert, 27 players in his three NFL drafts, and at least 25 of them who was re-signed to a three-year deal just days after Cole- will still likely be on the team heading into training camp this man was acquired. Per Over The Cap, 49ers running backs year. Pending training camp battles, that includes somewhere have a combined cap hit of $20.4 million in 2019, over $3 between six and nine starters between offense and defense. million more than any other team. There’s a difference, though, between starters and good start- To be fair to Lynch, he’s not tunnel-focused on overpaying ers. Only two of Lynch’s draftees—tight end George Kittle running backs; he has also overpaid offensive linemen, guar- and linebacker Fred Warner—have proven themselves to be anteeing $16.5 million to center Weston Richburg and $4 mil- impact players in the NFL. The others have either struggled lion to guard Jonathan Cooper in 2018. Richburg went on to to stay healthy or show they belong in NFL lineups. It’s worth provide 15 disappointing starts, but that is more than we can noting that Kittle was a fifth-round pick in 2017, while Warner say for Cooper, who was released before the season started. was a third-round pick the next year. Lynch’s success rate on This year’s passenger on the John Lynch gravy train is Kwon earlier picks is highly dubious. The first-round selections in Alexander, a 25-year-old linebacker coming off a torn ACL. his first two drafts include Solomon Thomas, the third overall He’s a good player, but Lynch gave him a contract worth $54 pick in 2017 who is already in danger of losing his starting job; million over four years. That’s an average of $13.5 million per 209 210 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 2018 SF DVOA by Week 2019 49ers Schedule 100% Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80% 1 at TB 7 at WAS 13 at BAL 60% 2 at CIN 8 CAR 14 at NO 40% 3 PIT 9 at ARI (Thu.) 15 ATL 20% 4 BYE 10 SEA (Mon.) 16 LAR 0% 5 CLE (Mon.) 11 ARI 17 at SEA 6 at LAR 12 GB -20% -40% -60% year, second-highest in the league among off-ball lineback- -80% ers. If Alexander is anything less than a first-team All-Pro this -100% season, he’ll be grossly overpaid. We’re cherry-picking some of Lynch’s worst deals here. He has had other acquisitions—Marquise Goodwin, Pierre Gar- con, Earl Mitchell, Malcolm Smith, Richard Sherman—that (The other was thrown by Philip Rivers.) Every other defense were perfectly reasonable and more or less successful. His had at least seven interceptions. Fifty-two individual players best move this year was to acquire edge rusher Dee Ford from had more interceptions than the 49ers last year. That includes Kansas City. Lynch gave up just a 2020 second-rounder for Seattle’s Earl Thomas, who had three interceptions before a Ford, then signed him to a five-year deal worth up to $87.5 broken leg ended his season in September. On top of that, million, but he maintained some cap flexibility -- Ford is guar- San Francisco recovered only five of 18 fumbles on defense. anteed nearly $20 million upfront, but the deal is structured so That’s seven turnovers in 174 drives, a rate of 0.040 turnovers that no further money is guaranteed until April of 2020. per drive that is the lowest of any defense in our drive stats The biggest problem with Lynch’s offseason is that he ig- database going back to 1993. nored some clear areas of need. We’ve already discussed his This is partly because turnovers are down for everyone these fetish for acquiring running backs every year, but let’s not days; last year’s Lions also show up on the list of defenses forget that he spent two Day 2 draft picks on wide receiv- with the fewest takeaways per drive, and the Steelers (0.079 ers, and also signed free-agent wideout Jordan Matthews. This takeaways per drive) and Packers (0.080) just missed (Table on a team that already had plenty of weapons—Goodwin and 1). Nonetheless, this is a stat that usually sees very strong re- Dante Pettis out wide, Kittle at tight end, and a dozen or so gression towards the mean from year to year. Interceptions and running backs, several of whom can split out wide or in the fumble recoveries both roughly doubled the following season slot themselves. Perhaps Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd will for the defenses in Table 1, and 14 of the 18 teams listed prior develop into good players—Samuel could even be a Day 1 to 2018 improved in DVOA the following year. However, that starter in the slot—but the 49ers had bigger needs. The inte- improvement was less than you might expect, just 7.9% on av- rior offensive line was denied a needed infusion of new talent. erage, and the overall results were often still quite mediocre. The secondary is left with an aging Sherman as one corner- More turnovers will help, but the 49ers will need more than that back and question marks everywhere else. Lynch even used to become a championship-caliber defense. a fourth-round pick on a punter, Utah’s Mitch Wishnowsky, There’s plenty of blame to go around for San Francisco’s de- rather than adding a useful blocker or corner.