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2013 Dubai World Cup Carnival – Super Saturday Report

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2013 Dubai World Cup Carnival – Super Saturday Report 2013 Dubai World Cup Carnival – Super Saturday Report Super Saturday was indeed that. Eight races, all preps for the Dubai World Cup meeting on March 30, set the stage for another magnificent renewal. We have sifted through the data from the big day to find the most noteworthy items. Al Bastakiya (Listed) – 1.900 meters – AW Prep for UAE Derby Secret Number was wildly impressive in his two-length Al Bastakiya win, producing the gaudiest distance-traveled numbers of the meeting. No less than four wide the entire trip, Secret Number covered 27 meters more than second placer Zahee , and 28 meters more than third home Snowboarder . Converting the extra ground covered to lengths suggests that Secret Number covered the equivalent of roughly ten lengths more than both horses. On the surface, this seems an incredibly strong performance from Secret Number, making just his second career start, and first since late October. The times from the race, however, tell a slightly different story. In the history of racing at Meydan, there have been 48 races at 1,900 meters. Only four races had slower runs through the first 800 meters, and the field of eleven did not quicken on the run home. This year’s Al Bastakiya was slow early and slow late – checking in as the 45 th slowest of 48 races at the distance. The final 300 meters of the race were timed as 43 rd slowest. Unlike some races we see at Meydan where the horses go slow early and quicken considerably late – the 2013 Maktoum Challenge Round 2 (G2) comes to mind – that never happened in this race. Since launching racing at Meydan, there have been four runnings of the Al Bastakiya at Meydan. Below is the data from each race, with the winner, the leader’s sectional times throughout, and then the difference between each sectional highlight separately to the right. As you will notice, none of the previous four Al Bastakiya winners at Meydan went on to win the UAE Derby. Year Winner 400m 800m 1200m 1600m 1900m 400m 800m 1200m 1600m 1900m 2010 Mendip :28.85 :54.51 1:19.61 1:43.10 1:59.69 28.85 25.66 25.10 23.49 16.59 2011 Reem :27.21 :50.98 1:15.60 1:40.65 1:59.90 27.21 23.77 24.62 25.05 19.25 2012 Mickdaam :26.68 :50.20 1:14.90 1:40.86 1:59.76 26.68 23.52 24.70 25.96 18.90 2013 Secret Number :28.02 :53.56 1:18.15 1:42.31 2:01.35 28.02 25.54 24.59 24.16 19.04 Mahab Al Shimaal (G3) – 1,200 meters – AW Prep for Dubai Golden Shaheen Krypton Factor entered the Mahab Al Shimaal a warm favorite off the back of a wildly successful 2012 Dubai World Cup Carnival, which included wins in both this race and the Dubai Golden Shaheen. He ran on a closing third in the Al Shindagha Sprint in February, his first start since June’s Royal Ascot meeting, and was sent postward as a 1-2 favorite on the international tote last week. Whether or not Krypton Factor has lost a step or is just being more conservatively prepared to get to the big prize, the son of Kyllachy could only manage second behind Reynaldothewizard . Formerly trained in America by Dubai World Cup winner Eoin Harty, the 11-1 shot managed the upset with a forwardly-placed success. Like the times from the Al Bastakiya, the Mahab Al Shimaal was surprisingly slow. Passing judgment on the intricacies of a particular course on any given day is normally the function of assessing if a course seemed to be playing slower or faster throughout a particular program. The Burj Nahaar (G3) and Maktoum Challenge Round 3 (G1) both ran faster than the par times for the distance, which makes the early slower times from the Mahab Al Shimaal and Al Bastakiya noteworthy (dispelling the belief that the overall track was playing slower). Reynaldothewizard averaged 61.0 KPH, traveling slightly more ground than Krypton Factor, Balmont Mast , and Time Prisoner , en route to a four-length tally. Those three placers averaged 60.3, 60.2, and 60.1 KPH, respectively. This was, without a doubt, a massive tally by Reynaldothewizard, a personal best by all accounts for the Satish Seemar trainee. With a final time of 1:11.89, the Mahab Al Shimaal was the 30 th fastest race at 1,200 meters in Meydan history from 49 run at the distance. Interestingly, after opening sectionals were just slightly faster than par through the first 400 and 800 meters, the field slowed considerably in the waning stages. The goal in these preps, from the bettor’s position, is to find clues to provide insight for the big night of races to come in three weeks. Historically, these sprinters will need to find speed in order to be competitive in the Dubai Golden Shaheen. Below, take note of the leader sectionals from each of the last three runnings of the Mahab Al Shimaal and Dubai Golden Shaheen. Mahab Al Shimaal 400m 800m 1200m Year Winner Leader's Sectionals 2010 Desert Party :24.85 :47.82 1:10.82 2011 Bankable :24.99 :48.08 1:11.83 2012 Krypton Factor :24.13 :46.90 1:11.56 2013 Reynaldothewizard :24.39 :47.56 1:11.89 Dubai Golden Shaheen 400m 800m 1200m 2010 Kinsale King :24.75 :47.65 1:10.89 2011 Rocket Man :24.24 :47.36 1:11.28 2012 Krypton Factor :23.83 :46.54 1:10.79 PAR TIME :24.63 :47.62 1:11.66 Meydan Sprint (Listed) – 1,000 meters – Turf Prep for the Al Quoz Sprint Shea Shea set a course record winning the Meydan Sprint, eclipsing the mark set earlier in the season by Fityaan after a strong early gallop brought the longshot into the race. There was no denying the impressiveness of Shea Shea’s performance, however. This South African shipper, making his second start of the season, wasn’t just fast as the clock stops at the finish, but significantly faster in the final stages of the race than any other run at the distance at Meydan. Granted, the sample size of 1,000-meter races at Meydan is limited to just 13, but Shea Shea’s final 200-meter split of 11.67 seconds was 0.23 seconds faster than the next fastest leader’s split – clocked in 11.90 seconds both in last year’s Al Quoz Sprint and the win by Dux Scholar in a late February 2013 handicap. Maktoum Challenge Round 3 (G1) – 2,000 meters – AW Prep for the Dubai World Cup Hunter’s Light proved he has an absolute affinity for all-weather surfaces, and stable companion Kassiano confirmed the same when they completed the exacta in the richest race of the Super Saturday card. In the Trakus Report published after the second round of the Maktoum Challenge, there was some question as to whether or not the quirky pace contributed to the end result. It seems safe to say that is not the case in hindsight. From that race in February, Prince Bishop and Surfer were prominent to the pace which is now ranked the 42 nd slowest of 48 races at 1,900 meters in Meydan history. But the field quickened considerably as the race progressed, and the final time landed the race as the 14 th fastest overall. As Prince Bishop and Surfer stayed around for minor placings in the Maktoum Challenge Round 2, both relative longshot on the international tote market, how well they would perform under faster early-race conditions was a key question. The pace in the Maktoum Challenge Round 3, set by Daddy Long Legs , was solid. In fact, the leader’s sectional through the first 800 meters had this race as the fourth fastest to that point, and it ended with Hunter’s Light stopping the clocks in 2:03.65, making it the seventh fastest from 30 races to date at the distance. Prince Bishop ran from off the pace this time, and Surfer maintained a stalking position, albeit wide. Both recorded credible finishes in third and fourth, respectively, while Hunter’s Light ran away to win. Below, take note of the ground coverage statistics, showing the meters traveled relative to Hunter’s Light, along with the average speeds and final 200-meter clockings. Maktoum Challenge Round 3 (G1) - 2,000m - AW Ground Average Final Top 5 Finishers Coverage Margin KPH 200m (m) Hunter's Light - (2.75) 58.9 12.26 Kassiano 2 2.75 58.7 12.35 Prince Bishop -8 3 58.4 12.62 Surfer 8 3.25 58.9 12.61 Jamr 10 4.25 58.5 12.38 Treasure Beach 3 4.5 58.6 12.17 Covering eight meters more than Hunter’s Light, Surfer traveled the equivalent of an extra three lengths, roughly the same amount of his margin of defeat. Their equivalency is reflected in the average speed over the course of the race. While Surfer was slowing notably in the final 200 meters of the race, the wider travel may have accounted for some of that performance. The most interesting performance, though, might have come from Mike de Kock’s Treasure Beach . The well-traveled son of Galileo, making his first start on an all-weather surface, flashed home off a four month layoff, recording the second-fastest final 400-meter split and the fastest final 200 meters of the race, beaten just 4 ½ lengths.
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