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Hana Financial Group Buy (086790 KS ) (Maintain)

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Hana Financial Group Buy (086790 KS ) (Maintain) [Korea] Banks February 8, 2021 Hana Financial Group Buy (086790 KS ) (Maintain) Solid fundamentals and external headwinds baked in ; TP: W47,000 time to buy Upside: 30.0% Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. Heather Kang [email protected] 4Q20 and 2020 review 4Q20 net profit of W532.8bn (+52% YoY, -30% QoQ), another positive surprise For 4Q20, Hana Financial Group (HFG) announced net profit attributable to owners of the parent of W532.8bn, beating the consensus (W418.6bn based on FnGuide and W433.5bn based on Bloomberg) by more than 20%. Major one-off items in the quarter included: 1 ) W169.6bn in early retirement expenses; 2) W149.3bn in F/X-translation gains on non-monetary foreign currency assets; 3) W108.2bn in additional provisioning related to COVID-19; and 4) W112.6bn in losses related to private equity funds. We estimate underlying net profit on a recurring basis was robust, at over W700bn. For 2020 as a whole, net profit expanded for the fifth consecutive year. Non-bank operations contributed 34% of 2020 net profit (vs. 21% in 2017, 22% in 2018, and 24% in 2019). 2020 group ROE was 9.0% (vs. 8.8% for KB Financial Group, 8.4% for Shinhan Financial Group). Group NPL ratio was 0.40% (-7bps YoY), and bank delinquency ratio was 0.19% (-1bp YoY). Dividends More aggressive shareholder returns (share repurchase s/cancellations, interim dividend distributions) expected after Jun. 2021 For 2020, HFG declared a final dividend of W1,350 per share (interim dividend was W500). Payout ratio was 20%, down from 23% in 2017 and 26% in 2018-19. The group called the payout cut a temporary move in response to regulators’ recommendation that banks have sufficient capital to buffer against losses. Given the group’s solid capital position and asset quality, we expect 2021-22 dividend payout to normalize to 26% and 27%, respectively. Investment points Dividend and valuation appeal; maintain Buy and TP of W 47,000 ; r eiterate as our top pick As of end-2020, HFG has a CET1 ratio of 12.03%, which does not yet reflect the early implementation of the new Basel III credit risk framework (which will lead to an increase of around 1.6%p in the capital ratio). We believe the group has enough capital to buffer against future losses and support growth. Earnings uncertainties have eased thanks to the group’s visibly improved earnings power, preemptive loss recognition, and cost efficiency enhancements. In 2021, we look for a modest rise in bond yields, which should help improve investor sentiment. Key data Current price (2/5/21, W) 36,150 Market cap (Wbn) 10,854 160 Hana Financial Group KOSPI 140 NP (20F, Wbn) 2,637 Shares outstanding (mn) 300 120 Consensus NP (20F, Wbn) 2,521 Free float (%) 86.4 100 EPS growth (20F, %) 10.3 Foreign ownership (%) 67.2 80 P/E (20F, x) 4.1 Beta (12M) 1.29 60 40 Market P/E (20F, x) 21.7 52-week low (W) 18,450 2.20 6.20 10.20 KOSPI 3,120.63 52-week high (W) 40,200 Share performance Earnings and valuation metrics (%) 1M 6M 12M (Dec.) 2017 2018 2019 2020 P 2021F 2022F Absolute 6.2 25.5 5.4 Net interest income (Wbn) 5,110 5,637 5,774 5,814 5,999 6,283 Relative 1.7 -7.0 -26.9 Net non -interest income (Wbn) 2,490 1,927 2,437 2,828 2,602 2,638 OP (Wbn) 2,718 3,152 3,259 3,836 3,713 3,941 NP (Wbn) 2,037 2,233 2,392 2,637 2,747 2,921 EPS (W) 6,881 7,478 7,966 8,784 9,151 9,729 EPS growth (%) 53.1 8.7 6.5 10.3 4.2 6.3 P/E (x) 5.3 4.8 4.5 4.1 4.0 3.7 P/PPOP (x) 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.3 2.3 2.2 P/B (x) 0.43 0.40 0.39 0.35 0.32 0.30 ROE (%) 8.6 8.6 8.6 9.0 8.6 8.4 Div. yield (%) 4.3 5.3 5.8 5.1 6.8 7.5 Notes: Under consolidated K-IFRS; NP is attributable to owners of the parent Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including t he US. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. February 8, 2021 Hana Financial Group Table 1. HFG: 4Q20 review YoY chg. QoQ chg. (Wbn) 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20P (%, %p) (%,%p) Net interest income 1,460.0 1,458.8 1,428.3 1,428.0 1,433.2 1,469.8 1,483.3 3.9 0.9 Net fee/commission income 541.0 498.5 547.9 505.7 531.5 582.4 540.0 -1.4 -7.3 Net other income 9.3 -75.5 355.8 -33.7 253.2 154.3 294.8 -17.1 91.1 Total net operating income 2,010.2 1,881.7 2,332.0 1,900.1 2,217.9 2,206.5 2,318.2 -0.6 5.1 SG&A expenses 928.9 986.6 1,186.1 927.9 848.2 966.2 1,175.3 -0.9 21.6 PPOP 1,081.4 895.1 1,145.9 972.2 1,369.7 1,240.3 1,142.9 -0.3 -7.9 Provisions 100.6 115.6 396.7 93.1 432.2 172.8 190.6 -52.0 10.3 OP 980.7 779.6 749.2 879.1 937.5 1,067.5 952.3 27.1 -10.8 Non-operating income -63.6 392.1 -191.9 39.7 23.8 15.9 -186.6 RR TTR Pretax profit 917.1 1,171.7 557.3 918.7 961.3 1,083.4 765.7 37.4 -29.3 NP (owners of the parent) 658.4 836.7 350.4 657.0 689.0 758.4 532.8 52.0 -29.7 Total assets 405,616 420,204 421,506 439,689 441,913 444,181 460,313 9.2 3.6 Total loans/receivables 268,107 270,153 282,306 288,541 290,043 293,638 308,792 9.4 5.2 Won-denominated loans (bank) 210,861 214,577 218,385 222,666 226,772 234,513 239,188 9.5 2.0 Total credit 276,709 282,612 286,480 295,079 301,496 311,066 314,340 9.7 1.1 Total deposits 257,400 264,864 272,794 283,058 288,851 286,464 295,510 8.3 3.2 Total shareholders' equity 29,113 29,046 28,985 29,079 30,451 31,451 31,600 9.0 0.5 (%) NIM (bank) 1.54 1.47 1.41 1.39 1.37 1.33 1.28 -0.13 -0.05 Cost-to-income ratio 46.2 52.4 50.9 48.8 38.2 43.8 50.7 -0.2 6.9 NPL (substandard & below) ratio 0.56 0.48 0.48 0.47 0.45 0.41 0.40 -0.07 -0.01 NPL coverage ratio 234.9 261.0 265.0 260.6 280.3 301.0 311.8 46.8 10.8 ROA (based on avg. value) 0.16 0.20 0.08 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.12 0.03 -0.05 ROE (based on avg. value) 2.37 2.97 1.24 2.33 2.38 2.52 1.74 0.49 -0.78 Credit cost ratio 0.04 0.04 0.14 0.03 0.14 0.06 0.06 -0.08 0.01 BIS ratio 14.69 14.13 13.95 13.80 14.07 14.40 14.18 0.23 -0.22 Tier 1 ratio 13.37 12.90 12.67 12.58 12.88 13.18 13.01 0.34 -0.16 NIM (bank) 12.62 12.19 11.96 11.90 12.03 12.12 12.03 0.07 -0.09 Notes: ROA, ROE, and credit cost data are non-annualized. Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Table 2. HFG: Earnings forecast revisions Revised Previous % chg. (Wbn) 2020P 2021F 2022F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2020P 2021F 2022F Net interest income 5,814 5,999 6,283 5,761 5,965 6,287 0.9 0.6 -0.1 Net non-interest income 2,828 2,602 2,638 2,487 2,448 2,484 13.7 6.3 6.2 Total net operating income 8,643 8,601 8,921 8,248 8,413 8,771 4.8 2.2 1.7 SG&A expenses 3,918 3,978 4,008 3,903 3,964 3,994 0.4 0.3 0.3 PPOP 4,725 4,623 4,913 4,345 4,449 4,776 8.7 3.9 2.9 Provisions 889 910 971 999 957 1,021 -11.0 -4.9 -4.8 OP 3,836 3,713 3,941 3,347 3,492 3,756 14.6 6.3 4.9 Non-operating income -107 90 101 42 90 101 -352.7 0.0 0.0 Pretax profit 3,729 3,803 4,042 3,389 3,582 3,856 10.0 6.2 4.8 NP (owners of the parent) 2,637 2,747 2,921 2,407 2,562 2,759 9.5 7.2 5.9 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 February 8, 2021 Hana Financial Group Figure 1.
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