BRIEFING PAPER Number CBP7599, 20 May 2016 Scottish Parliament By Oliver Hawkins Elections: 2016 Contents: 1. Introduction 2. Parties 3. Candidates 4. Results 5. Turnout 6. Appendix www.parliament.uk/commons-library | intranet.parliament.uk/commons-library | [email protected] | @commonslibrary 2 Scottish Parliament Elections: 2016 Contents Summary 3 1. Introduction 5 2. Parties 8 Scottish National Party 8 Conservative 10 Labour 12 Liberal Democrats 14 Scottish Green Party and UKIP 16 3. Candidates 17 4. Results 18 5. Turnout 21 6. Appendix 23 6.1 Constituency results 24 Table 1: Constituency results - votes and turnout by constituency 24 Table 2: Constituency results - seats by majority from highest to lowest percentage majority 27 Table 3: Constituency results - party share of vote by constituency, and majority 29 Table 4: Constituency results - change in share of the vote and turnout by constituency 31 Table 5: Constituency votes and shares by region and party 34 Table 6: Change in share of the constituency vote by region 35 Table 7: Largest and smallest constituency majorities by party 35 Table 8: Highest and lowest shares of the vote by party 36 6.2 Regional results 37 Table 9: Regional results - votes and turnout by constituency 37 Table 10: Regional results - party share of vote by constituency 40 Table 11: Regional results - change in share of vote and turnout by constituency 42 Table 12: Regional results - votes and turnout by party and region 45 Table 13: Share of the regional vote by region and party 46 Table 14: Change in share of the regional vote by region 46 Table 15: Difference in turnout and share of the vote between constituency and regional ballots by region 46 6.3 Members of the Scottish Parliament 47 Table 16: MSPs elected, May 2016 47 Table 17: MSPs elected by seat type, party and region 51 Editor: Richard Keen Contributing Authors: Oliver Hawkins, Lukas Audickas, Anna Moses Tables and underlying data in this briefing are available as Excel files via: http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7599 Cover page image attributed to: Steampunk Pharaoh / Scottish Parliament. Licensed by Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic (CC BY-NC-SA 2.0) / image cropped 3 Commons Library Briefing, 20 May 2016 Summary In the elections to the Scottish Parliament in May 2016 the Scottish National Party won the most seats (63 of 129) with 44.1% of the votes, but failed to win an overall majority. The total number of SNP MSPs elected was six fewer than in 2011. The Conservatives came second with 31 seats and 22.5% of the vote. The number of Conservative MSPs elected more than doubled and their share of the vote increased by 9.4% points. This was the best performance for the Conservatives at any Scottish Parliament election so far. Labour came third with 24 seats and 20.8% of the vote. Labour lost 13 seats and their share of the vote fell by 8.2% points. The Liberal Democrats won 5 seats and 6.5% of the vote, while the Scottish Green Party won 6 seats and 3.6% of the vote. Average turnout across all constituencies and regions increased from 50.4% in 2011 to 55.7% in 2016. The highest constituency turnout was in Eastwood, where 68.3% of the electorate cast valid ballots. The lowest constituency turnout was in Glasgow Provan, where 42.9% of eligible voters participated. Following the elections, the composition of the Scottish Parliament is 84 men and 45 women. The number of women MSPs is the same as in the 2011 elections and two more than in the 2007 election. Scottish Parliament election 2016: Results in brief combined constituency and regional results Votes 2011 2016 Scottish National Party 1,779,336 44.7% 2,013,485 44.1% Conservative 522,619 13.1% 1,026,064 22.5% Labour 1,153,930 29.0% 950,180 20.8% Liberal Democrat 261,186 6.6% 297,522 6.5% Green 86,939 2.2% 163,598 3.6% UK Independence Party 20,861 0.5% 46,426 1.0% Others 155,241 3.9% 67,630 1.5% Total 3,980,112 100% 4,564,905 100% Seats 2011 2016 Change Scottish National Party 69 63 -6 Conservative 15 31 +16 Labour 37 24 -13 Liberal Democrat 5 5 0 Green 2 6 +4 UK Independence Party 0 0 0 Others 1 0 -1 Turnout 50.4% 55.7% +5.3% MSPs Women 45 45 0 Men 84 84 0 4 Scottish Parliament Elections: 2016 Scottish Parliament seats and share of votes by party, 1999 to 2016 Share of all votes by party 1999 2003 2007 2011 2016 50% SNP 40% Scottish National Party 30% Seats 35 27 47 69 63 Constituency 7 9 21 53 59 20% Regional 28 18 26 16 4 10% Share 28.0% 22.3% 31.3% 44.7% 44.1% 0% Constituency 28.7% 23.8% 32.9% 45.4% 46.5% 1999 2003 2007 2011 2016 Regional 27.3% 20.9% 31.0% 44.0% 41.7% 50% Conservative Conservative 40% Seats 18 18 17 15 31 30% Constituency 0 3 4 3 7 20% Regional 18 15 13 12 24 10% Share 15.5% 16.1% 15.3% 13.1% 22.5% 0% Constituency 15.6% 16.6% 16.6% 13.9% 22.0% Regional 15.4% 15.5% 13.9% 12.4% 22.9% 1999 2003 2007 2011 2016 50% Labour Labour 40% Seats 56 50 46 37 24 30% Constituency 53 46 37 15 3 Regional 3 4 9 22 21 20% 10% Share 36.2% 32.0% 30.8% 29.0% 20.8% Constituency 38.8% 34.6% 32.1% 31.7% 22.6% 0% Regional 33.6% 29.3% 29.2% 26.3% 19.1% 1999 2003 2007 2011 2016 Liberal Democrat 50% Lib Dem Seats 17 17 16 5 5 40% Constituency 12 13 11 2 4 Regional 5 4 5 3 1 30% 20% Share 13.3% 13.6% 13.8% 6.6% 6.5% Constituency 14.2% 15.4% 16.2% 7.9% 7.8% 10% Regional 12.4% 11.8% 11.3% 5.2% 5.2% 0% Green 1999 2003 2007 2011 2016 50% Green Seats 1 7 2 2 6 40% Constituency 0 0 0 0 0 Regional 1 7 2 2 6 30% 20% Share 1.8% 3.4% 2.1% 2.2% 3.6% Constituency 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 10% Regional 3.6% 6.9% 4.0% 4.4% 6.6% 0% UK Independence Party 1999 2003 2007 2011 2016 50% Seats 0 0 0 0 0 UKIP Constituency 0 0 0 0 0 40% Regional 0 0 0 0 0 30% Share 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 1.0% 20% Constituency 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 10% Regional 0.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.9% 2.0% 0% Note: Historical results to 2011 provided by SPICe. 1999 2003 2007 2011 2016 5 Commons Library Briefing, 20 May 2016 1. Introduction The fifth set of elections to the Scottish Parliament took place on Thursday, 5 May 2016, on the same day as elections to the National Assembly for Wales, elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly, local authority elections in England, and elections the Greater London Authority. The electoral system The system for electing members to the Scottish Parliament is known as the Additional Member System. Voters are given two ballot papers. The first is used to elect each of 73 constituency Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) under the traditional first-past-the-post system. The second ballot paper is used to elect seven MSPs from each of eight electoral regions. These additional members are elected so that the total representation from each geographical area, including those members elected under first-past-the-post, corresponds more closely to the share of the votes cast for each political party in the region. The political context The fifth Scottish Parliament elections were the first to take place since the referendum on Scottish Independence held in September 2014. That referendum stimulated electoral participation in Scotland. The turnout at the referendum was 84.5% votes, which was the highest turnout at a nationwide referendum or parliamentary election in Scotland since the franchise was extended to women in 1918.1 Turnout at the following general election in May 2015 was higher in Scotland than in any other nation or region of the UK. At that election turnout in Scotland was 71.0% compared with 66.2% for the UK as a whole.2 The 2015 General Election also saw a substantial increase in the number of SNP MPs elected to the Westminster Parliament, from 6 to 56 MPs. At the same time the number of Labour MPs in Scotland fell from 41 to one. The number of Conservative MPs in Scotland was unchanged at one. 2016 Election Results The SNP gained the highest share of the vote with 44.1% of the total vote, 46.5% of the constituency vote and 41.7% of the regional vote. The SNP also won the highest number of seats (63), down six compared with the 2011 election. The SNP’s share of the vote increased by 1.1% points in the constituency ballot and fell by 2.3% points in the regional ballot. The difference between the SNP’s share of the vote in the constituency and regional ballots was higher at the 2016 election than at any other 1 House of Commons Library, Scottish Independence Referendum 2014 2 House of Commons Library, General Election 2015 6 Scottish Parliament Elections: 2016 previous Scottish Parliament election.