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A Comprehensive Investor Guide to Scenario-Based Methods for Climate Risk Assessment, in Response to the TCFD

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A Comprehensive Investor Guide to Scenario-Based Methods for Climate Risk Assessment, in Response to the TCFD A comprehensive investor guide to scenario-based methods for climate risk assessment, in response to the TCFD May 2019 Changing Course | | 1 Twenty institutional investors from eleven countries, convened by UNEP FI and supported by Carbon Delta, have worked throughout 2018–2019 to analyse, evaluate, and test, state- of-the-art methodologies to enable 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C scenario-based analysis of their portfolios in line with the recommendations of the FSB’s Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD). The outputs and conclusions of this Pilot are captured in the following report and aim to enhance the understanding and ease adoption of the TCFD recommendations by the wider investment industry. UN Environment – Finance Initiative is a Vivid Economics is a strategic consul- Carbon Delta is a climate change data partnership between UN Environment tancy providing our private and public analytics firm that quantifies investment and the global financial sector created in clients with deep sectoral and thematic risks for more than 30,000 companies the wake of the 1992 Earth Summit with expertise at the nexus of finance, along numerous climate change scenarios. a mission to promote sustainable finance. commerce and the environment. For our With our Climate Value-at-Risk (CVaR) More than 200 financial institutions, financial sector clients, we provide policy model we aim to empower financial including banks, insurers, and investors, and market intelligence, scenario model- institutions with the tools necessary to work with UN Environment to under- ling, and risk and opportunity assessment protect assets from the worst effects stand today’s environmental, social and tools that support investment strategy, resulting from climate change and also governance challenges, why they matter risk management, investee engagement help identify new, innovative low carbon to finance, and how to actively partici- and financial disclosure. investment opportunities. pate in addressing them. www.vivideconomics.com www.carbon-delta.com www.unepfi.org CONTENTS Perspectives from the pilot membership ..................................................................................................... 5 Foreword by Mark Carney .............................................................................................................................. 7 Foreword by Satya Tripathi ............................................................................................................................. 8 Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................................... 9 Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................10 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................16 2 Overview of methodologies ....................................................................................................................23 3 Building blocks of the Investor Pilot methodology ............................................................................38 4 Comparing Climate Value at Risk across 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C Worlds ..........................................50 5 Operationalising the methodology: case studies ...............................................................................65 6 Future directions ......................................................................................................................................116 Appendix I ........................................................................................................................................................120 Appendix II ......................................................................................................................................................121 Appendix III .....................................................................................................................................................122 Acronyms .........................................................................................................................................................123 Glossary ............................................................................................................................................................124 References .......................................................................................................................................................125 Changing Course | Contents | 1 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Key innovative elements, gaps and next steps for the Carbon Delta methodology ....................................48 Table 2: Results for the Top 1,200 companies by global market cap ............................................................................................51 Table 3: Sector-level results for Policy Risk illustrate the range of climate- related impacts across the portfolio .................................................................................................................................................52 Table 4: Sector-level results for Technology Opportunities illustrate the range of impacts across the portfolio ............................................................................................................................................................53 Table 5: Policy Risk for a Delayed and Non-delayed scenario ...........................................................................................................53 Table 6: Physical Risk for the average and aggressive climate models and each specific weather hazard ................................................................................................................................................................54 Table 7: Physical Risk for the average scenario by sector and weight ..........................................................................................55 Table 8: Top 10 locations exposed to physical risks based on sector and hazard .............................................................56 Table 9: Results for the Top 1,200 companies by global market cap ............................................................................................58 Table 10: Sector-level results for Policy Risk illustrate the range of climate-related impacts across the portfolio ....................................................................................................................................................................58 Table 11: Sector-level results for Technology Opportunities illustrate the range of impacts across the portfolio ....................................................................................................................................................................59 Table 12: Policy risk for a delayed and non-delayed scenario ................................................................................................................59 Table 13: Physical Risk for the Average and Aggressive climate models and each specific weather hazard ..................................................................................................................................................................60 Table 14: Physical Risk for the average scenario by sector and contribution ............................................................................60 Table 15: Top 10 locations exposed to Physical Risks based on sector and hazard ............................................................61 Table 16: Results for a Coal Portfolio ......................................................................................................................................................................63 Table 17: Results for a Renewable Energy Portfolio .....................................................................................................................................63 Table 18: CDPQ comparison of sectors through specific value chains ........................................................................................72 Table 19: CDPQ total VaR of cement and iron and steel sectors .....................................................................................................73 Table 20: Manulife Canadian equity portfolio results ...................................................................................................................................75 Table 21: Manulife Asian equity portfolio results .............................................................................................................................................75 Table 22: Manulife sector weights for Canadian and Asian equity portfolios ............................................................................76 Table 23: Manulife total portfolio VaR of these hazards for both portfolios ..............................................................................77 Table 24: Manulife industry ranking by exposure to extreme heat risk ........................................................................................77 Table 25: Manulife industry ranking by exposure to coastal flooding risk ....................................................................................77 Table 26: Manulife industry ranking by exposure to tropical cyclone risk ....................................................................................77
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