Cleeve-Racing-Cheltenham-Yankee-2021.Pdf
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Introduction Cheltenham with empty stands… it's going to feel a bit bizarre but with the Irish set to come it's still going to be top class action and arguably racing has never had more importance than it has at the moment. Here at Cleeve we always put out an EW Yankee at this time of year. We see it mainly as a bit of fun that adds interest to the week as a whole. However we've used all of our expertise and put in as much time analysing the races in question, and should all the selections win (yes, we know it's a big 'if'!), while we wouldn't say that £79K is a life-changing amount of money… it certainly helps to keep the wolf from the door! Win, lose or draw 2021 was the year that we hope marked the bottom of the curve and that next year's Festival sees packed stands again and we hear the traditional 'roar' when the tapes go up on the Supreme Hurdle. Copyright Cleeve Racing 2021 Page 1 Tuesday 16th March Champion Hurdle Selection: Abacadabras Age: 7 Trainer: Gordon Elliott Owner: Gigginstown House Stud Best odds: 12/1 The top few in the market here; Epatante, Sharjah and Silver Streak look too short in the betting. Epatante disappointed behind Silver Streak last time but that was down to a canny ride on the winner. Sharjah is interesting if he can replicate his Leopardstown form here. He was second behind Epatante in this last year but the 7lbs mare's allowance for Epatante is likely to make the difference again. I don't think Silver Streak is good enough and some of the real threats are more likely to run in the mares' races – Honeysuckle and Concertista. That leaves the main threats as Saint Roi and Goshen and neither have set the world alight this season, but both probably have the talent to compete here. One of the overpriced horses is Buveur D'Air as I expect him to be spot on for the race and he has been there and done that – twice! Abacadabras is the selection here having narrowly failed to beat Shishkin in the Supreme Novices Hurdle last season having been hampered in the latter stages by a falling horse otherwise I think he would have won. I do think he is suited by Cheltenham and the test of stamina and speed will bring out the best in him. Stop press: Honeysuckle won the Irish Champion Hurdle with an authoritative performance beating Abracadabras by 10 lengths with a further 9 lengths back to Sharjah. She denitely had the run of what was a slowly run race and was given a soft lead from a long way out in ground that was a lot softer than she will encounter at the Festival. She has been promoted to 5/2 joint-favourite with Epatante but I think this is a slight over-reaction and due to the visual impression she created at Leopardstown rather than the hard data from the race. Copyright Cleeve Racing 2021 Page 2 Wednesday 17th March Champion Chase Selection: Put The Kettle On Age: 7 Trainer: Henry De Bromhead Owner: One for Luck Syndicate Best odds: 14/1 There are a number of question marks over the runners here including the short priced but vastly talented Chacun Pour Soi. Chacun Por Soi is many peoples' idea of the festival banker, but he has never run at either the Festival or Cheltenham previously and that is a major negative, so at odds- on since his impressive run in the Dublin Chase he can't be rated as a condent bet. Politologue won a substandard Champion Chase last season (let's not forget that Chacun Por Soi was withdrawn on the morning of the race) and despite winning the Tingle Creek, disappointed last time in the Clarence House Chase when trounced by Final Flow. Altior was also surprisingly beaten by Nube Negra at Kempton and he looked to be beaten fair and square. Altior's price looks to have some value but he has now been beaten twice in his last three runs and may be on a declining trajectory at the age of eleven. The younger guns Final Flow and Nube Negra could improve again and that would put both in the mix, especially if both jump like they did on their last starts, but I think the faster pace of this race is more likely to put their jumping under pressure. That leaves me with one realistic alternative: Put the Kettle On is the selection and she won the Arkle last season and is 3 wins from 3 runs at the course. She does need to improve on the book but the mare's allowance reduces the amount needed to make her a real threat here and her apparent love of the course makes her price look generous to me. I do like the way she battles in a nish and that could prove the difference here, she could pick off some of those which have pressed the pace coming up the hill. Copyright Cleeve Racing 2021 Page 3 Thursday 18th March Stayers' Hurdle Selection: Lisnagar Oscar Age: 8 Trainer: Rebecca Curtis Owner: Racing for Fun Best Odds 20/1 There are several horses listed in the betting for this that are very unlikely to run – Benie Des Deux, Roksana, Champ and Kemboy to name just four that are priced in the top ten in most lists. Of the remaining six the favourite Paisley Park a previous champion is definitely one of the major players, but despite his last furlong lunge to win beating Thyme Hill and Roksana I do think he is beatable here. His price of around 3/1 does look fair and for win only bets I would not put anyone off backing him, as if he is able to tuck in behind the leaders at Cheltenham and come with a run going up the hill he will be hard to beat. Thyme Hill would need to improve to win this and appears to have peaked judging by his Ascot run, although his jockey did look annoyed to be caught by the fast finishing Paisley Park. Irish challenger Flooring Porter has shown much improved form this season, but would need to improve significantly again to beat the two aforementioned horses come March. Fury Road was going to be the selection here but Gordon Elliott has stated he will hold him back from Cheltenham for the Irish National meeting at Fairyhouse at the beginning of April. Lisnagar Oscar was the surprise winner of this race in 2020 and repeat winners of this are not unusual. I thought he ran ok on his seasonal bow at Newbury, and put his stopping down to a lack of first time out fitness but it turns out he had a breathing issue and has subsequently had a wind operation. He missed Ascot in December due to the operation but made his reappearance on Saturday in a race short of his best and he ran very well. The expected strong gallop at Cheltenham in March will suit him and if the ground was soft it would be another major plus for him, as he is a smooth hurdler and has proven stamina. His odds of around 20/1 for the reigning champ are far too big and I will be surprised if he does not place providing his breathing remains sound.yright Cleave Racing 2021 Page 4 Copyright Cleeve Racing 2021 Friday 19th March Gold Cup Selection: Santini Age: 8 Trainer: Nicky Henderson Owner: Mr & Mrs R Kelvin- Hughes Best odds: 14/1 Al Boum Photo goes for a remarkable third Gold Cup in a row and there is no reason to doubt that he has the capability to do so, but I think this year's entry list is by far the strongest he has faced so far and he may have to settle for a place. There is certainly little value in backing him at his current price as he may go off bigger on the day. Minella Indo has a super cruising speed and I would have been interested to see how he fared in the Savills Chase won by A Plus Tard, but he fell in mid-race and Delta Work unseated. A Plus Tard came ying at the nish as Kemboy and Melon battled out for the places. There is a question whether either Minella Indo or A Plus Tard can stay the additional couple of furlongs in a strongly run race like the Gold Cup and of the two Minella Indo with a clear round is the more likely winner. Champ is another hugely talented individual but has only had four chases on his CV but he is proven capable of winning at Grade 1 level although his jumping can be iffy and he may not fully stay in a high pace race. Frodon is an admirable horse but is unlikely to get an unchallenged lead if he takes his place here rather than the Ryanair and is unlikely to place. Delta Work is frustrating as I think he has loads of talent but just seems to be lacking something in the top-level races. Royal Pigaille has been very impressive on his last two starts and although he didn't beat much probably deserves a shot at this race rather than the National Hunt Chase over further, but this will be a huge challenge and not having won at the top level it remains to be seen if he can handle the pace of the Gold Cup.