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Banking Getting Better Sooner Than Expected Sector Update Banking Getting better sooner than expected Sector Update Q3FY2021 Results Review Q3FY2021 was a strong quarter with most banks reporting positive earnings and an improving outlook on growth and asset quality. Private banks’ advances grew Sector: Banking faster than the system and resulted in continued market share gains. Coupled with Sector View strong deposit growth, notably low-cost CASA deposits, reduced cost of funds and led to better margins. Even on a proforma basis, most private banks highlighted only a slight (and manageable) deterioration in asset quality. Hence, the proforma NPA Private Banks Positive vs Reported GNPA was within 50-200 bps range for most private banks, excluding some new-age banks with relatively high exposure to micro and SME loan segments. PSU Banks Neutral With the recent spate of capital raising and strengthening of balance sheet, the management commentary focused on reverting back to advances growth in FY2022 and normalisation of credit costs (asset quality related write-offs) from Q1FY2022. PSU banks too posted decent earnings, but advances growth remained tepid due Our coverage universe to capital constraints and credit cost is also at elevated levels. SBI, was easily the Companies CMP Reco. PT (Rs) best performer among PSU banks and not only continued to see improved asset- (Rs) quality performance, but also gained market share on the advances front. PSU PSU Banks banks and micro-lenders reported a higher restructured book, but still largely State Bank 402 Buy 460 within manageable range. Gap of proforma versus reported GNPAs was higher for of India PSU banks and small-ticket / micro-loan players. We expect PSBs’ margins to be Bank of 80 Hold UR rangebound due to credit cost outlook is yet to regain clarity and growth outlook is Baroda still weak. However, any progress on recoveries from IBC/NCLT would be a re-rating Punjab 40 Hold 42 trigger going ahead. We believe that low interest rates, recovery in economic activity National are potent positives for the financial sector. We prefer structurally strong players Bank with high capitalisation and robust book quality. The earlier apprehension regarding Bank of India 71 Hold UR an unwieldy restructuring pipeline were ameliorated through proactive provisions Private Banks and improving collections, and we believe that asset quality outlook has improved ICICI Bank 658 Buy 770 for the banking sector. Axis Bank 775 Buy 900 HDFC Bank 1626 Buy 1810 Outlook Federal 85 Buy 95 Retain preference for private banks; turn neutral on PSU banks: External/regulatory Bank support continues, which makes it challenging to assess the situation with objective IndusInd 1058 Buy 1340 clarity. However, we expect normalisation in growth and asset quality trends from Bank FY2022E. Going forward, since only SME sector window for restructuring is open, Kotak 2020 Buy 2130 we believe there is limited overhang on the asset quality and profitability fronts. Mahindra On the asset quality front, slippages were lower (for most banks, Private as well as Bank PSU Banks) sequentially. Management commentary also was positive across board, RBL Bank 259 Buy UR with most banks guiding for improvement in growth outlook and a low/manageable City Union 166 Buy 225 restructuring pipeline. We believe that low interest rates, recovery in economic activity Bank are potent positives for the banking sector. Resumption and acceleration of NCLT / IBC AU Small 1093 Buy 1260 proceedings will be positive triggers. Going forward, as players shed extra liquidity, it Finance will provide support to medium term margins. We retain preference for private banks UR - Under review and turn neutral on PSU banks. Valuations Most banks indicated a shift from the risk-off stance to a more proactive growth outlook (in varying degrees), and the commentary too was more positive. We have revised our earnings estimates for the sector. We believe that collection trends for Q4 and H1FY2022 asset quality/growth will be key monitorable going forward. We expect well-managed private banks (PBs) and SBI to continue to outperform their peers due to better capitalisation and improved book quality. We continue to prefer large corporate/ retail PBs and SBI among PSBs, and see potential for them to gain market share as the situation normalises. We like banks such as HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Axis Bank due to their better earnings and asset-quality visibility along with niche players like AU Small Finance Bank. While PSU banks have reported better than expected performance, however we believe lack of clarity on asset quality outlook prevents us from being constructive on the sector at present, and we prefer only SBI at present amongst PSU banks. Key Risks: Price chart A delay in economic recovery or significant economic distress may lead to accretion to corporate and SME NPAs along with slowdown in the retail segment may affect 150 earnings. 130 110 90 Leaders in Q3FY2021: HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI, Axis Bank, Kotak Bank, and Federal 70 Bank 50 30 Laggards in Q3FY2021: PNB and Bank of India 20 21 20 20 20 - - - - - Preferred Picks: Feb Feb Aug Nov May Private banks - ICICI Bank, IndusInd Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, AU Small Finance Nifty 50 Nifty Bank Bank; PSU Banks - SBI February 16, 2021 6 Sector Update Q3FY2021 result snapshot Company Net Interest Income (Rs Cr) PPoP (Rs Cr) PAT (Rs Cr) Q3FY21 Q3FY20 YoY % QoQ % Q3FY21 Q3FY20 YoY % QoQ % Q3FY21 Q3FY20 YoY % QoQ % PSU Banks State Bank of 28,820 27,779 3.7 2.3 17,333 19,039 -9.0 5.3 5,196 6,553 -20.7 13.6 India Bank of Baroda 7,749 7,132 8.6 3.2 5,591 4,958 12.8 0.7 1,061 -1,407 N.A -36.8 Punjab National 8313 4,355 90.9 -1.6 6390.8 3,763 69.8 12.6 506 -492.3 N.A -18.5 Bank Bank of India 3,740 4,159 -10.1 -9.1 2,835.70 4,135 -31.4 -8.5 541 106 410.1 2.8 Total PSU Banks 48,621 43,425 12.0 0.8 32,150 31,895 0.8 4.4 7,304 4,760 53.5 -1.3 Private Banks ICICI Bank 9,912 8,545 16.0 5.8 8,820 7,529 17.1 6.8 4,941 4,146 19.2 16.3 Axis Bank 7,373 6,453 14.3 0.6 6,096 5,743 6.1 -11.6 1,117 1,757 -36.4 -33.6 HDFC Bank 16,318 14,173 15.1 3.4 15,186 12,945 17.3 9.9 8,758 7,416 18.1 16.6 Federal Bank 14,137 1,155 1124.0 924.5 963 744 29.4 -4.3 404 441 -8.4 31.4 IndusInd Bank 3,406 3,074 10.8 3.9 2,973 2,746 8.3 5.0 853 1,300 -34.4 31.8 Kotak Mahindra 4,007 3,430 16.8 2.4 3,083 2,388 29.1 -6.5 1,854 1,596 16.1 -15.1 Bank RBL Bank 908 923 -1.6 -2.6 805 732 9.9 11.8 147 70 110.2 2.0 City Union Bank 489 427 14.4 2.9 458 308 48.6 19.2 170 192 -11.7 7.8 AU Small Finance 633 507 24.9 12.9 873 313 179.0 87.2 466 190 145.2 44.9 Bank Total Private 57,182 38,686 47.8 33.0 39,257 33,448 17.4 4.2 18,710 17,109 9.4 8.7 Banks Source: Company, Sharekhan Research Valuations Company CMP Reco/ Target BVPS P/BV View Price FY21E FY22E FY21E FY22E PSU Banks State Bank of India 402 Buy 460 180.9 226.3 2.2 1.8 Bank of Baroda 80 Hold UR 155.0 162.1 0.5 0.5 Punjab National Bank 40 Hold 42 30.3 47.9 1.3 0.8 Bank of India 71 Hold UR 109 131 0.7 0.5 Private Banks ICICI Bank 658 Buy 770 209.8 232.3 3.1 2.8 Axis Bank 775 Buy 900 297.3 321.9 2.6 2.4 HDFC Bank 1626 Buy 1810 349.6 398.1 4.7 4.1 Federal Bank 85 Buy 95 79.3 87.4 1.1 1.0 IndusInd Bank 1058 Buy 1340 522.8 586.9 2.0 1.8 Kotak Mahindra Bank 2020 Buy 2130 331.7 373.8 6.1 5.4 RBL Bank 259 Buy UR 188.3 202.3 1.4 1.3 City Union Bank 166 Buy 225 79.5 91.4 2.1 1.8 AU Small Finance 1093 Buy 1260 150 190 7.3 5.8 Source: Company, Sharekhan Research; UR: Under Review February 16, 2021 8 Sector Update Revision in earnings estimates Company Name Change in Reasoning Current Previous Target Estimate Price Reco Reco Strong numbers; Operating results were strong and Axis Bank Fine tuned Buy Buy 900 with capital raise, is placed better Credit growth expected to be muted and the Bank of India Fine tuned corporate segment’s asset quality remains key Hold Hold UR monitorable City Union Bank Fine tuned Mixed performance; Improving Outlook Buy Buy 225 Federal Bank Revised Up Strong numbers; Improving Outlook Buy Buy 95 Strong business growth, asset quality appears HDFC Bank Fine tuned Buy Buy 1810 manageable Operational performance was strong, Asset quality ICICI Bank Revised Up Buy Buy 770 performance improved IndusInd Bank Fine tuned Improving business mix, long term outlook positive Buy Buy 1340 Operational performance was strong, Asset quality Kotak Mahindra Bank Revised Up Buy Buy 2130 performance improved Credit growth expected to be muted and the Punjab National Bank Fine tuned corporate segment’s asset quality remains key Hold Hold 42 monitorable Asset quality concerns abating, improved RBL Bank Fine tuned Buy Buy UR Capitalization helps Operational performance was strong, Asset quality State Bank of India Revised Up Buy Buy 460 performance improved AU Small Finance Reasonable and in-line performance, Asset quality Maintained Buy Buy 1260 Bank outlook is bright Source: Sharekhan Research February 16, 2021 9 Axis Bank Well-placed to revert to growth Powered by the Sharekhan 3R Research Philosophy Banks & Finance Sharekhan code: AXISBANK Company Update Update Stock 3R MATRIX + = - Summary Right Sector (RS) ü Axis Bank has a strong asset-quality position, with the bank having front-loaded Right Quality (RQ) ü of provisions (on a proforma basis), which dovetail into an improved balance Right Valuation (RV) ü sheet and provide impetus for growth in FY2022E and FY2023E.
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