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Of Crashes, Corrections, and the Culture of Financial Information- What They Tell Us About the Need for Federal Securities Regulation
Missouri Law Review Volume 54 Issue 3 Summer 1989 Article 2 Summer 1989 Of Crashes, Corrections, and the Culture of Financial Information- What They Tell Us about the Need for Federal Securities Regulation C. Edward Fletcher III Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarship.law.missouri.edu/mlr Part of the Law Commons Recommended Citation C. Edward Fletcher III, Of Crashes, Corrections, and the Culture of Financial Information-What They Tell Us about the Need for Federal Securities Regulation, 54 MO. L. REV. (1989) Available at: https://scholarship.law.missouri.edu/mlr/vol54/iss3/2 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Law Journals at University of Missouri School of Law Scholarship Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Missouri Law Review by an authorized editor of University of Missouri School of Law Scholarship Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Fletcher: Fletcher: Of Crashes, Corrections, and the Culture of Financial Information OF CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND THE CULTURE OF FINANCIAL INFORMATION-WHAT THEY TELL US ABOUT THE NEED FOR FEDERAL SECURITIES REGULATION C. Edward Fletcher, III* In this article, the author examines financial data from the 1929 crash and ensuing depression and compares it with financial data from the market decline of 1987 in an attempt to determine why the 1929 crash was followed by a depression but the 1987 decline was not. The author argues that the difference between the two events can be understood best as a difference between the existence of a "culture of financial information" in 1987 and the absence of such a culture in 1929. -
2020-2024 County Growth Policy Working Draft Appendices
2020-2024 WORKING DRAFT APPENDICES May 21, 2020 Prepared by Montgomery Planning www.MontgomeryPlanning.org [This page is intentionally blank.] Table of Contents Table of Contents ..................................................................................................................................... i Appendix A. Forecasting Future Growth ............................................................................................... 5 Summary ................................................................................................................................................... 5 Montgomery County Jurisdictional Forecast Methodology ...................................................................... 5 Overview ............................................................................................................................................... 5 Countywide Forecast ............................................................................................................................. 5 TAZ-level Small Area Forecast ............................................................................................................... 6 Projection Reconciliation ....................................................................................................................... 8 Appendix B. Recent Trends in Real Estate ........................................................................................... 11 Residential Real Estate ........................................................................................................................... -
Riding the South Sea Bubble
Riding the South Sea Bubble By PETER TEMIN AND HANS-JOACHIM VOTH* This paper presents a case study of a well-informed investor in the South Sea bubble. We argue that Hoare’s Bank, a fledgling West End London bank, knew that a bubble was in progress and nonetheless invested in the stock: it was profitable to “ride the bubble.” Using a unique dataset on daily trades, we show that this sophisticated investor was not constrained by such institutional factors as restric- tions on short sales or agency problems. Instead, this study demonstrates that predictable investor sentiment can prevent attacks on a bubble; rational investors may attack only when some coordinating event promotes joint action. (JEL G14, E44, N23) What allows asset price bubbles to inflate? light on other important episodes of market The recent rise and fall of technology stocks overvaluation. have led many to argue that wide swings in We examine one of the most famous and asset prices are largely driven by herd behavior dramatic episodes in the history of speculation, among investors. Robert J. Shiller (2000) em- the South Sea bubble. Data on the daily trading phasized that “irrational exuberance” raised behavior of a goldsmith bank—Hoare’s—allow stock prices above their fundamental values in us to examine competing explanations for how the 1990s. Others, however, have pointed to bubbles can inflate. While many investors, in- structural features of the stock market, such as cluding Isaac Newton, lost substantially in lock-up provisions for IPOs, analysts’ advice, 1720, Hoare’s made a profit of over £28,000, a strategic interactions between investors, and the great deal of money at a time when £200 was a uncertainties surrounding Internet technology, comfortable annual income for a middle-class as causes of the recent bubble. -
Stock-Market Simulations
Project DZT0518 Stock-Market Simulations An Interactive Qualifying Project Report: submitted to the Faculty of WORCESTER POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Bachelor of Science By Bhanu Kilaru: _____________________________________ Tracyna Le: _______________________________________ Augustine Onoja: ___________________________________ Approved by: ______________________________________ Professor Dalin Tang, Project Advisor Table of Contents LIST OF TABLES....................................................................................................................... 4 LIST OF FIGURES..................................................................................................................... 5 ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................................... 6 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................. 7 1.0 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................... 7 1.1 BRIEF HISTORY .................................................................................................................. 9 1.2 DOW .................................................................................................................................. 11 1.3 NASDAQ.......................................................................................................................... -
Newsletter of the Institute of Slavic, East European, and Eurasian Studies
ISSN 1536-4003 University of California, Berkeley Newsletter of the Institute of Slavic, East European, and Eurasian Studies Fall 2005 Volume 22, Number 3 Notes from the Director In this issue: Welcome to another year of intellectual stimulation, learning, and convivi- ality. I am very happy to announce that we will be joined by two new Notes from the Director ................... 1 faculty members: Victoria Frede, Assistant Professor in the History Development of Slavic Studies ....... 2 Department, and Jason Wittenberg, Assistant Professor in the Department Campus Visitors .............................. 2 of Political Science. Victoria is a Berkeley Ph.D. (2002), so many of you Fall Courses .................................... 3 already know her. She works on Imperial Russia, primarily eighteenth- Recent Graduates ........................... 4 and nineteenth-century intellectual history. Jason received his Ph.D. at Susanne Wengle MIT in 1999. His main research interests include the comparative politics The Monetization of L'got: Politics of Eastern Europe, especially Hungary. Please help us welcome them to of Welfare and International Change our community. in Russia ............................................ 5 Olga Matich The fall semester begins with a very ambitious program organized by A Digital Map of Petersburg at the the Caucasus and Central Asia Program (CCAsP), directed by Dr. Sanjyot Beginning of the 20th Century ......... 12 Mehendale. It includes an exhibit of paintings by the Kazakh artist Saule Upcoming Events .......................... 17 Suleimenova and a conference on contemporary Central Asian film, Outreach Programs....................... 20 music, and visual arts. Accompanying these events will be a month-long Faculty and Student News ............ 21 film series, “Films from Along the Silk Road: Central Asian Cinema,” at Kujachich Endowment Funding ... -
Anatomy of a Meltdown
ISSUE 3 | VOLUME 4 | SEPTEMBER 2015 ANATOMY OF A MELTDOWN ................... 1-7 OUR THOUGHTS ......... 7 Cadence FOCUSED ON WHAT MATTERS MOST. clips Anatomy of a Meltdown When the stock market loses value quickly as it has done the process. It’s easier to remember the tumultuous fall this week, people get understandably nervous. It’s not months of 2008 than it is to remember the market actu- helpful to turn on CNBC to get live updates from the ally peaked a year earlier in 2007. We’ve seen a few trading floor and to listen to talking heads demand ac- smaller corrections over the past seven years, but tion from someone, anyone!, to stop this equity crash, as they’ve played out over months instead of years, and if things that go up up up should not be allowed to go relatively quick losses in value have been followed by down, especially this quickly. So much time has passed relatively quick, and in some cases astonishingly quick, since the pain of the 2007-2009 finan- recoveries, to the point that we cial crisis that it is easy to lose perspec- may be forgetting that most signifi- tive and forget how to prepare for and The key is to not change cant stock market losses take years how to react to a real stock market strategy during these volatile to fully occur. The key is to not decline, so every double digit drop change strategy during these vola- feels like a tragedy. periods and to plan ahead of tile periods and to plan ahead of time for the longer term time for the longer term moves By now we’ve convinced ourselves moves that cause the signifi- that cause the significant losses in that we should have seen the 2007- cant losses in value. -
An Undertaking of Great Advantage, but Nobody to Know What It Is: Bubbles and Gullibility
An undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is: Bubbles and gullibility Andrew Odlyzko [email protected] http://www.dtc.umn.edu/∼odlyzko Revised version, March 11, 2020. One of the most famous anecdotes in finance is of a promoter in the 1720 South Sea Bubble who lured investors into putting money into “an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is.” This tale is apocryphal, but it is only a slight embellishment of some documented cases. Most were slightly less preposterous than the anecdotal one, when considered in the context of the time, but they all reflect the high level of credulity displayed by the investors of 1720. However, it is debatable whether their gullibility was greater than that of the most sophisticated investment professionals in recent times. This leads to some intriguing thoughts about the nature of financial markets and human society in general. A reference that is often cited for this and other colorful tales of investor irrationality is Mackay’s ever-popular Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. It was first published in 1841 under a slightly different title, and had the following account ([4], vol. 1, p. 88), which was basically copied from Oldmixon a century earlier ([6], pp. 701–702): [T]he most absurd and preposterous of all [the new projects of 1720 in London], and which showed, more completely than any other, the utter madness of the people, was one started by an unknown adventurer, entitled “A company for carrying on an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is.” Were not the fact stated by scores of credible witnesses, it would be impossible to believe that any person could have been duped by such a project. -
INTERNATIONAL ENTREPRENEURSHIP the Case of Russia
Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation St. Petersburg State Polytechnical University INTERNATIONAL ENTREPRENEURSHIP The Case of Russia V.D. Khizhniak St. Petersburg Publishing House of SPbSPU 2012 1 Khizhniak, Vladimir International Entrepreneurship: the Case of Russia. A manual for students. St. Petersburg: Publishing House of SPbSPU, 2012. This manual is intended for students interested in international business. The theoretical concepts and practical issues of international entrepreneurship are considered with reference to Russia, one of the most promising sites for international business. ISBN © St. Petersburg State Plytechnical University, 2012 2 CONTENTS Chapter 1 General Characteristic of International Entrepreneurship 6 Chapter 2 The Russian Marketplace in a Global Context 24 Chapter 3 Business Environment and General Terms of Business 46 Chapter 4 Promotion of Foreign Investment 64 Chapter 5 Entrepreneurial Law and Commercial Disputes Resolution 84 Chapter 6 Setting up a Business Abroad 105 Chapter 7 Importing and Exporting 126 Chapter 8 Finance and Banking Environment 140 Chapter 9 Capital Markets and Securities 160 Chapter 10 Principal Taxes and Tax System 183 Chapter 11 Labor Hiring and Labor Relations 205 Chapter 12 International Marketing and Sales 216 Chapter 13 Business Risks and Insurance 241 Chapter 14 Business Culture 260 Bibliography 279 3 PREFACE This manual is developed for students of business colleges who seek to enhance their knowledge of international entrepreneurship. Experience has shown that processes of globalization and internationalization are developing so rapidly in recent years that even if students majoring in business does not intend to be involved in international business activity, they nevertheless will encounter problems relating to globalization and internationalization processes in their professional activity. -
Riding the South Sea Bubble
MIT LIBRARIES DUPL 3 9080 02617 8225 Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2011 with funding from Boston Library Consortium Member Libraries http://www.archive.org/details/ridingsouthseabuOOtemi L L5 2- Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Economics Working Paper Series RIDING THE SOUTH SEA BUBBLE Peter Temin Hans-Joachim Voth Working Paper 04-02 Dec. 21,2003 RoomE52-251 50 Memorial Drive Cambridge, MA 02142 This paper can be downloaded without charge from the Social Science Research Network Paper Collection at http://ssrn.com/abstract=485482 Riding the South Sea Bubble Peter Temin and Hans-Joachim Voth Abstract: This paper presents a case study of a well-informed investor in the South Sea bubble. We argue that Hoare's Bank, a fledgling West End London banker, knew that a bubble was in progress and that it invested knowingly in the bubble; it was profitable to "ride the bubble." Using a unique dataset on daily trades, we show that this sophisticated investor was not constrained by institutional factors such as restrictions on short sales or agency problems. Instead, this study demonstrates that predictable investor sentiment can prevent attacks on a bubble; rational investors may only attack when some coordinating event promotes joint action. KEYWORDS: Bubbles, Crashes, Synchronization Risk, Predictability, Investor Sentiment, South Sea Bubble, Market Timing, Limits to Arbitrage, Efficient Market Hypothesis. JELCODE: G14, G12,N23 We would like to thank Henry Hoare for kindly permitting access to the Hoare's Bank archives, and to Victoria Hutchings and Barbra Sands for facilitating our work with the ledgers. Larry Neal kindly shared data with us. -
Cultural Heritage, Cinema, and Identity by Kiun H
Title Page Framing, Walking, and Reimagining Landscapes in a Post-Soviet St. Petersburg: Cultural Heritage, Cinema, and Identity by Kiun Hwang Undergraduate degree, Yonsei University, 2005 Master degree, Yonsei University, 2008 Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of The Dietrich School of Arts and Sciences in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of Pittsburgh 2019 Committee Page UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH DIETRICH SCHOOL OF ARTS AND SCIENCES This dissertation was presented by Kiun Hwang It was defended on November 8, 2019 and approved by David Birnbaum, Professor, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Slavic Languages and Literatures Mrinalini Rajagopalan, Associate Professor, University of Pittsburgh, Department of History of Art & Architecture Vladimir Padunov, Associate Professor, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Slavic Languages and Literatures Dissertation Advisor: Nancy Condee, Professor, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Slavic Languages and Literatures ii Copyright © by Kiun Hwang 2019 Abstract iii Framing, Walking, and Reimagining Landscapes in a Post-Soviet St. Petersburg: Cultural Heritage, Cinema, and Identity Kiun Hwang, PhD University of Pittsburgh, 2019 St. Petersburg’s image and identity have long been determined by its geographical location and socio-cultural foreignness. But St. Petersburg’s three centuries have matured its material authenticity, recognizable tableaux and unique urban narratives, chiefly the Petersburg Text. The three of these, intertwined in their formation and development, created a distinctive place-identity. The aura arising from this distinctiveness functioned as a marketable code not only for St. Petersburg’s heritage industry, but also for a future-oriented engagement with post-Soviet hypercapitalism. Reflecting on both up-to-date scholarship and the actual cityscapes themselves, my dissertation will focus on the imaginative landscapes in the historic center of St. -
Revenue Growth in a Declining Market
Media Release Page 1/2 Winterthur, January 23, 2020 2019 financial year: revenue growth in a declining market Thanks to numerous new ramp-ups and the favorable portfolio of vehicle models supplied, Autoneum grew organically by 2.5% in a declining market. Adjusted for currency effects, Group revenue in Swiss francs amounted to CHF 2 297.4 million, 0.7% higher compared to the previous year. CHF million 2019 2018 Change Organic growth* Revenue Group 2 297.4 2 281.5 +0.7% +2.5% Revenue Business Groups (BG) - BG Europe 900.9 984.5 –8.5% –5.6% - BG North America 1 001.8 921.8 +8.7% +7.2% - BG Asia 275.7 260.3 +5.9% +8.1% - BG SAMEA 125.8 111.5 +12.8% +32.7% *Change in revenue in local currencies, adjusted for hyperinflation. For the second consecutive year, fewer vehicles were manufactured worldwide in 2019 than in the prior year. In particular, the persistently weak global economy and ongoing trade disputes have had an impact on vehicle demand. With only about 89 million vehicles produced, the market shrank by almost –6% compared to 2018. Despite this negative trend, Autoneum achieved an organic revenue growth of 2.5% through numerous production ramp-ups and a favorable mix of vehicle models supplied. Revenue consolidated in Swiss francs rose by 0.7% from CHF 2 281.5 million to CHF 2 297.4 million. Revenue growth in North America, Asia and SAMEA region significantly above market The Business Groups North America, Asia and SAMEA (South America, Middle East and Africa) not only outperformed the negative market trend in each case, but also reported higher revenues compared to the previous year. -
Market Trend, Company Size and Microstructure Characteristics of Intraday Stock Price Formations
European Research Studies Volume VI, Issue (1-2), 2003 Market Trend, Company Size and Microstructure Characteristics of Intraday Stock Price Formations Alexakis C. ∗∗∗ and Xanthakis E. ∗∗∗ Abstract The purpose of this study is to investigate whether there are certain price patterns during the trading session in the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE). We investigate statistically the series of stock returns, the volatility of stock returns and trading volume. In our analysis we use data from two different time periods; a period of rising prices (“bull” market) and a period of declining stock prices (“bear” market). We also use different categories of shares i.e. blue chips, medium capitalization stocks and small capitalization stocks. Our results indicate that there exist specific intraday patterns. The explanation of the revealed patterns can be based on investor sentiment and stock market microstructure characteristics Keywords : pattern, intraday, microstructure, regression JEL Classification : G14 1. Introduction The empirical research for stock price formation investigates a) if there is past available information which can help in predicting future returns profitably, and b) if non rational factors i.e. factors which are not predicted by the economic theory, influence stock prices (Muth 1961, Cootner 1962, Fama 1965, 1970, 1976, 1991, Gowland and Baker 1970, Cutler, Poterba and Summers 1989 and 1991, MacDonald and Taylor 1988, 1989, Spiro 1990, Cochrane 1991, Frennberg and Hansson 1993, Jung and Boyd 1996, Al-Loughani and Chappel 1997). Thus, according to the theory there should not be any patterns in the formation of stock prices or relevant variables i.e. trading volume, volatility which would imply a) and/or b) above.