US Economic Growth Slows in Q2; Fed Likely to Cut Rates

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US Economic Growth Slows in Q2; Fed Likely to Cut Rates $108BN FUND: Page 2 TRADE WAR : Page 3 Japan’s Soft Bank Huawei’s ties Group draws with FedEx, in Microsoft Flex fray on and Apple US-China row Saturday, July 27, 2019 Dhul-Qa’da 24, 1440 AH $26BN TAKEOVER: Page 8 US approves merger GULF TIMES of wireless operators BUSINESS T-Mobile and Sprint US economic growth slows in Q2; Fed likely to cut rates AFP Washington he American economy cooled in the second quarter of 2019 Tto a still-solid pace but offi cials Erdogan: High interest rates nevertheless slashed one of President are the biggest obstacle to Donald Trump’s favourite economic the Turkish economy. numbers, government data showed yesterday. Newly revised data covering the past Erdogan fi ve years now show the world’s largest economy actually slowed in the year welcomes after Trump and congressional Re- publicans pushed through a sweeping, $1.5tn tax cut. sharp The change dealt a sharp blow to Trump’s economic message and also Turkish highlighted how momentum had de- teriorated in the fi nal months of 2018 rate cut, when the Federal Reserve last raised interest rates in defi ance of intense pressure from Trump. urges more The central bank next week is widely expected to cut its benchmark lending policy rate, reversing December’s increase. The Commerce Department report- ed that GDP in the April-June quarter easing slowed to 2.1% from the fi rst three months of the year, down sharply from Reuters 3.1% growth in the fi rst quarter, but Istanbul that was better than expected, helped by strong consumer spending. Taken together the new data por- Turkish President Tayyip trayed an economy that enjoys robust Erdogan said yesterday that strength in some quarters but has be- the central bank’s decision gun to sputter worryingly in others, a day earlier to sharply cut even while the US is outshining slug- interest rates was “vital” gish economies in Europe, Japan and and added that the policy elsewhere. easing needs to continue at Analysts had expected second quar- a gradual pace toward year ter growth of just 1.8%, but the econ- end. omy got a boost from strong spending On Thursday the central on autos, food and clothing. bank cut its benchmark rate “Not bad,” Trump tweeted yester- to 19.75% from 24%, more day, “considering that we have the than expected. very heavy weight of the Federal Re- The move came less than serve anchor wrapped around our A container ship is seen at a port in Long Beach, California. The American economy cooled in the second quarter of 2019 to a still-solid pace but off icials nevertheless three weeks after Erdogan neck.” slashed one of President Donald Trump’s favourite economic numbers, government data showed yesterday. abruptly sacked the bank’s Federal spending also took its big- chief and replaced him with gest leap in a decade – with non-de- fewer autos, parts and factory equip- The fourth quarter of 2018 expand- greatest economic performance in 14 economy to 3% annual growth over a a deputy in a move that fence expenditure rising at the fastest ment. ed just 1.1%, down from the 2.2% re- years. A prior Commerce Department decade. alarmed investors. pace in 21 years – a one-time jolt when The ailing American manufacturing ported in March. estimate 2.9% average growth for all of Instead, the economy actually Speaking to provincial heads the government resumed paying em- sector also produced fewer non-du- As a result, growth between the 2018 compared to all of 2017 was un- slowed following the tax cuts from of his AK Party yesterday, ployees following the fi ve-week par- rable goods while retail and wholesale fourth quarter of 2018 and the fourth revised. 2.8% in 2017. Erdogan said high interest tial government shutdown at the start trade softened. quarter of 2017 – the measure of annu- But Trump in March specifi cally re- White House economic adviser Lar- rates are the biggest obstacle of the year. Declining travel exports, dominated al growth favoured by the White House jected this measure. ry Kudlow yesterday echoed Trump’s to the Turkish economy, But that was not enough to make up by tourists and foreign students, also and many economists – was chopped “The press tried to make it 2.9. I view that any sluggishness could be which tipped into recession for tumbling investment in factories weighed growth down for the quarter. down to 2.5% from 3%. Economists said, ‘it’s not 2.9,’” Trump said during blamed on the Fed and that the econ- after last year’s currency and commercial buildings, which sank In the revisions that stretch back say comparing the fourth quarter to speech to supporters in Ohio. omy was otherwise robust. crisis. more than 10% for the quarter, and to the fi nal quarter of 2013, the Com- fourth quarter of the prior year gives a “I said, ‘We’re going to break three.’ “I think, you know, to keep this “I’ve always expressed my falling income from software royalties merce Department said revised and more accurate picture of the economy. And we did.” thing going in the face of severe mon- discomfort over this (high and other intellectual property. newly available data showed October- The downward revision stripped In policy documents, the White etary tightening in 2017 and ‘18, seven interest rates) for years. Amid a global economic slowdown, December 2018 was much weaker than Trump of the banner 3% number he House claims the president’s econom- rate hikes, I think it’s almost a miracle Unfortunately, we could not weakening foreign demand for US ex- previously reported, notably spending had repeatedly hailed in public ap- ic agenda of tax cuts, slashed regula- that the economy is growing as rapidly convey this to central bank ports meant American factories sold on healthcare and autos. pearances and social media as the tion and trade reform will push the US as it is,” he told CNBC. governors of those times,” he said, adding the governors had used “stalling tactics”. Following the sacking of former governor Murat Oman’s 5-month budget deficit Cetinkaya, Erdogan said the decision was taken because Oman issues $3bn bonds out narrows to a third of 2018 level he did not follow instructions regarding monetary policy. The sacking has also led to Bloomberg 2017. Oman announced in June that renewed concerns about the of nearly $14bn in demand Dubai it’s imposing an excise tax that could central bank’s independence generate close to 100mn rials in under Erdogan, who has annual revenue. frequently describes interest Reuters 6.375% on Thursday. Oman issued supportive theme. We have a rising Oman’s budget deficit narrowed in The state-budget plan envisaged a rates as “evil”. Similar Dubai $750mn in 5-1/2 year and $2.25bn number of negatively yielding se- the first five months of the year as deficit of 9% for this year, or 2.8bn concerns contributed to a in 10-year bonds, a separate docu- curities and credits with attractive revenue increased, according to the rials, slightly more than last year’s sell-off in the lira, which lost ment showed. yield levels like Oman should get statistics service. actual deficit of 2.65bn rials. The nearly 30% last year in a full- man raised $3bn with its Sources previously said the a boost,” said Sergey Dergachev, a The shortfall was 358.4mn rials International Monetary Fund puts blown currency crisis. first foray in the interna- bonds would likely be $2bn in size manager of emerging market cor- ($931mn), down from 1.1bn rials in the shortfall in 2018 at about 9% of Inflation, which hit a 16-year Otional debt markets this and be used to cover part of Oman’s porate debt at Germany-based Un- the January-to-May period last year, gross domestic product and sees high in the wake of the crisis, year after receiving strong demand budget deficit, estimated at nearly ion Investment, while the deal was the sultanate’s National Center for it narrowing over the next several declined to just below 16% from global investors hunting for $7.3bn this year. marketed on Thursday. The initial Statistics and Information said in years before it begins to climb back in June, opening the door high returns in a low yield envi- Oman’s finances have been hurt price guidance put the new paper a report. Revenue surged more up from 2022, according to a July for the central bank to start ronment. by a slump in oil prices and the at a premium of around 30 basis than 15% from a year earlier, while report. easing for the first time in Investors made orders worth country is struggling to tame a points over Oman’s existing debt spending dropped 4.3%. Yields on Oman’s bonds due 2028 more than four years. nearly $14bn for papers offered at widening fiscal deficit. curve, said Dergachev. The figures, delayed for months, remain higher than lower-rated Erdogan repeated yesterday a final yield of 4.95% for the long The bond sale was seen as a test Citi, JPMorgan and Standard suggest the Gulf state is making Bahrain’s, which rallied last year his unorthodox view that five-year bonds, due in February of Oman’s ability to tap foreign debt Chartered have been hired to coor- headway in stabilising its public after the nation won a $10bn bailout inflation will come down as 2025, and 6% for the 10-year pa- markets after it was downgraded to dinate the transaction, which will finances.
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