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BREAKOUT! DOLLAR DIVE Kicks Currencies Into Gear P Strategies, News, and Analysis for FX Traders December 2006 Volume 3, No. 12 BREAKOUT! DOLLAR DIVE kicks currencies into gear p. 34 EUROPE 2007: Currencies and economies p. 10 EURO/YEN: Stats for traders p. 20 THE GREAT SIMPLIFIER: Taking advantage of the dollar index p. 28 EURO OUTSIDE-BAR PATTERN triggers timely tradep.48 CONTENTS Trading Strategies . .20 Euro/yen: Tips and tendencies Euro/yen by the numbers: Stats and tendencies for short-term forex players. By Thom Hartle Advanced Strategies . .28 The pros make it look hard Are currency traders making life unnecessarily difficult for themselves? By Howard L. Simons Spot Check . .34 Dollar breakdown: Solid signal or red herring? A look at the numbers behind the dollar’s recent breakout. Contributors . .6 Industry News Gain again enters Letters . .8 RefcoFX picture . .40 Gain Capital, which failed in an earlier attempt to buy the assets of RefcoFX, Global Markets . .10 has purchased the defunct broker’s Slowdown in the Eurozone? customer list. Opinions vary on the prospects for Europe and its currencies in the coming year. CME, ISE enhance FX options . .40 By Currency Trader Staff The Chicago Mercantile Exchange will soon be offering side-by-side trading Big Picture . .14 of its forex options, while the International Charts are not enough Securities Exchange is beginning the pricing Breaking down price action in light process for its FX options. of the news. continued on p. 4 By Barbara Rockefeller 2 December 2006 • CURRENCY TRADER CONTENTS Currency Futures . .41 Currency fund manager performance. International Market Summary . .42 Snapshot of currency, equity, and interest-rate performance. Global News Briefs . .44 New products and Services . .46 Economic and market news from around the world. Key Concepts Global Economic Calendar . .45 References and definitions . .47 Key dates for currency traders. Events . .46 Forex Trade Journal . .48 Conferences, seminars, and other events. Short-term euro pattern trade. Have a question about something you’ve seen in Currency Trader? Submit your editorial queries or comments to [email protected]. Looking for an advertiser? Consult the list below and click on the company name for a direct link to the ad in this month’s issue of Currency Trader. Index of advertisers FXCM International Trader’s Expo New York Forex.com Currency Trader Bookstore InterbankFX PFG Forex NewsTrader Pro TradeGuider MetaStock 4 December 2006 • CURRENCY TRADER CONTRIBUTORS Howard Simons is president of A publication of Active Trader® Rosewood Trading Inc. and a strategist for For all subscriber services: Bianco Research. He writes and speaks fre- www.currencytradermag.com quently on a wide range of economic and Editor-in-chief: Mark Etzkorn [email protected] financial market issues. Managing editor: Molly Flynn [email protected] Barbara Rockefeller (www.rts-forex.com) is an Contributing editors: Jeff Ponczak ([email protected]), international economist with a focus on foreign exchange. David Bukey ([email protected]) She has worked as a forecaster, trader, and consultant at Contributing Writers: Marc Chandler, Barbara Rockefeller Citibank and other financial institutions, and currently Editorial assistant and publishes two daily reports on foreign exchange. Webmaster: Kesha Green [email protected] Rockefeller is the author of Technical Analysis for Dummies Art director: Laura Coyle (For Dummies, 2004), 24/7 Trading Around the Clock, [email protected] Around the World (John Wiley & Sons, 2000), The Global President: Phil Dorman [email protected] Trader (John Wiley & Sons, 2001), and How to Invest Publisher, Internationally, published in Japan in 1999. A book tenta- Ad sales East Coast and Midwest: Bob Dorman tively titled How to Trade FX is in the works. [email protected] Ad sales West Coast and Southwest only: Thom Hartle (www.thomhartle.com) Allison Ellis [email protected] is director of marketing for CQG and a Classified ad sales: Mark Seger contributing editor to Active Trader maga- [email protected] zine. In a career spanning more than 20 years, Hartle has been a commodity account executive for Merrill Lynch, vice president of financial futures for Volume 3, Issue 12. Currency Trader is published monthly by TechInfo, Inc., 150 S. Wacker Drive, Suite 880, Chicago, IL 60606. Copyright © 2006 TechInfo, Inc. All rights reserved. Information in this publication may not be Drexel Burnham Lambert, trader for the Federal Home stored or reproduced in any form without written permission from the publisher. The information in Currency Trader magazine is intended for educational pur- Technical poses only. It is not meant to recommend, promote or in any way imply the Loan Bank of Seattle, and editor for nine years of effectiveness of any trading system, strategy or approach. Traders are advised to do their own research and testing to determine the validity of a trading idea. Trading and investing carry a high level of risk. Past performance does not Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazine. guarantee future results. 6 December 2006 • CURRENCY TRADER LETTERS More where that came from Big bad Ben found the article “Breaking down the euro” in the have some questions about the article “Day trading November issue very useful. Where can I get simi- the FX market: Adifferent approach to the pound” by I lar data on other currency pairs? I Kristian Kerr (Active Trader, June 2004). Take a look at Figure 2 (“Big Ben”). I can’t see the begin- –Ole C.G. Olesen ning and the end of the “range” I should be using to refer- Cyprus ence the first price move. Also, which time frame should be used for the second rule? Does this strategy work on the We are planning a series of similar articles on different opposite side of the market? What trailing stop should I currency pairs in the upcoming issues of Currency take after covering half the position? Trader. The euro article was the first in the series, and –Enn Be this month’s issue looks at the euro/yen. The “range” in question is the range established by the pound/dollar (GBP/USD) after the London/Frankfurt open CMO 0? (1 a.m. ET). The rules simply state price should first move 0.0025 points below that opening price, then 0.0025 points above ’m interested in the Intraday CMO-FX system tested that opening price. in the November 2006 issue (Currency System The time frame is not relevant, although an intraday chart I Analysis, p. 26). The rules state to exit the trade if makes monitoring the price action much easier. In the article, a CMO hits +50. On the chart, however, the systems seems to five-minute chart was used. A two-minute, one-minute, or 10- exit when the indicator reaches zero. Can you clear this up minute chart (and so on) chart could also be used. As far as the for me? time period, the trade is designed for the price action occurring –R. Elia in the first few hours after the London/Frankfurt open. Finally, in the article, the author writes the “rules are for The system has two exit rules in addition to the rule to exit on a short trades, but the strategy can be reversed to trade the long CMO move above +50: Exit after 20 bars if price is below the entry side.” He does not mention a specific trailing stop size, though. price and exit with a profit of 0.2 percent. The latter rule is the one Additional exit or stop techniques are something to experiment that appears to coincide with the CMO crossing the zero line. with when testing this trading approach. Three good tools for targeting customers . — CONTACT — Bob Dorman Allison Ellis Mark Seger Ad sales East Coast and Midwest Ad sales West Coast and Southwest Account Executive [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] (312) 775-5421 (626) 497-9195 (312) 377-9435 8 December 2006 • CURRENCY TRADER GLOBAL MARKETS Slowdown in the Eurozone? Sluggish growth and potentially counterproductive tax policies may weigh on the Eurozone in 2007. What does it mean for the continent’s range-bound major currencies? BY CURRENCY TRADER STAFF mixture of higher taxes, higher interest rates, Eurozone exports more expensive around the globe (and is and slower global growth may congeal into bad for the trade balance), a slowdown in the U.S. economy, lower growth figures for the Eurozone in 2007. and enlargement of the Eurozone. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Then there’s that 3-percent sales tax increase that ABank of England (BOE) have tightened monetary policy becomes effective Jan. 1 in Germany. recently, and it remains to be seen whether this tightening will “The authorities intend to use part [of it] to cut labor ultimately weigh on economic growth over the next year. costs for employers,” says Paul Guest, chief European Another issue on the horizon is the largest post-war tax economist at Moody’s Economy.com. “The tax hike will be hike in Germany. In January, Deutschland’s value-adds-tax a short-term negative for the German economy, as it will (VAT) will jump 3 percent, from 16 to 19 percent. Concerns depress already lackluster household spending during the are rampant within the economic community the tax hike early part of next year.” will dampen already sluggish growth prospects. But is it a healthy step, longer-term? While the euro (EUR/USD) has been locked within a “This is one measure the German government put into frustratingly consistent range between $1.29 and $1.24 from place in order to get fiscal balance back into place,” says mid-May through late-November (Figure 1), the British Naomi Fink, senior currency analyst at BNP Paribas. pound (GBP/USD) has also been range-bound, but much “They’ve done this because Germany and Europe as a more volatile (Figure 2).
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