Moving Toward the Future of Policing
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Treverton, Matt Wollman, Elizabeth Wilke, Deborah Lai NATIONAL SECURITY RESEARCH DIVISION The research described in this report was conducted within the RAND Center for Global Risk and Security under the auspices of the International Programs of the RAND Corporation. Library of Congress Control Number: 2011939018. ISBN: 978-0-8330-5320-6 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2011 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/ permissions.html). Published 2011 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface This book grew out of conversations with members of the Advisory Board of RAND’s Center for Global Risk and Security. It began when one board member who is now a co-author of this book, Matt Wollman, observed that when asked what their police forces will look like in 20 years, police chiefs almost always say “much like now,” perhaps with some adjustments in balances of gender and ethnicity. It seemed to us that this couldn’t be the right answer, given advances in technol- ogy, especially, but also in operating concepts by police authorities. Thus was born this book, an effort to think creatively but also use- fully about the future. It draws on the work of many others to create a vision of what future policing could look like, but it also concludes with concrete steps for moving toward that vision. It is aimed at those who make decisions in shaping law enforcement organizations, their equipment, training, and concepts of operations, as well as at potential partners in the private sector. It should also be of interest to concerned citizens, whose support is absolutely essential to effective policing. This book results from the generosity of donors to the center. We greatly appreciate their support, and we also thank Queenisha Rynders for her research assistance early in the project. This research was conducted within the RAND Center for Global Risk and Security, part of International Programs at the RAND Cor- poration. The center aims to improve public policy by providing deci- sionmakers and the public with rigorous, objective research on critical, crosscutting policy issues affecting global risk and security. iii iv Moving Toward the Future of Policing For more information on the RAND Center for Global Risk and Security, see http://www.rand.org/international_programs/cgrs.html or contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page). Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. ix Tables .............................................................................. xi Summary .........................................................................xiii Acknowledgments .............................................................. xxi Abbreviations .................................................................. xxiii CHAPTER ONE Framing the Future ............................................................... 1 Thinking About and Responding to Threats ................................... 4 Plan of This Book .................................................................. 9 CHAPTER TWO Policing Today ....................................................................15 The Political Era ...................................................................16 The Reform Era ...................................................................18 The Community Era ............................................................. 24 Order-Maintenance Policing ................................................. 26 Deterrence Through Presence .................................................29 Directed Patrol and Crackdowns ............................................ 30 Problem-Oriented Policing ....................................................31 The Intelligence-Led Policing Era ...............................................32 Charting the Mismatch ..........................................................39 CHAPTER THREE Crime Does Not Respect Jurisdiction....................................... 43 v vi Moving Toward the Future of Policing The Force of Jurisdictions ....................................................... 44 Trying to Do Better: More-Formal Cooperation .............................49 Policing Across Borders: The United States and Mexico .................... 56 The Limits of International Cooperation .......................................61 CHAPTER FOUR The Technology Revolution Enables Change ...............................69 The Challenge of Technology ....................................................70 Technology and Changes in Policing ...........................................72 Technologies on the Horizon ....................................................74 Data Collection and Processing ...............................................76 Problem-Solving.................................................................78 Partnerships ......................................................................81 Organizational Structure ......................................................85 Integrating Technology into Police Departments ............................ 86 CHAPTER FIVE The Threat Will Continue to Morph .........................................89 Taking Advantage of Seams .................................................... 90 Technological Advances ......................................................... 94 Technology-Enabled Crime and the Internet ............................... 94 Cyber Crime .................................................................... 97 Virtual Crimes and Real Crimes in Virtual Worlds ...................... 100 Social, Demographic, and Economic Shifts ................................. 101 Increasing Movement of Goods, Services, and Information ............. 103 The More-Distant Future Will Manifest New Challenges ................. 104 CHAPTER SIX Concepts of Operations Are Critical ....................................... 107 How Might Operations Change in the Future? ............................. 108 Changing Organizations ....................................................... 111 New Workforce Demands ..................................................... 113 Constraints on Changing ConOps ........................................... 116 The Challenge of Changing Cultures: The FBI as a Case in Point ..... 117 Budgetary Considerations and Outsourcing .............................. 121 Legal and Political Restrictions ............................................. 125 Technology, Jurisdiction, and ConOps ....................................... 130 Contents vii CHAPTER SEVEN Moving Toward the Vision ................................................... 131 Summing Up the Vision ....................................................... 131 Concrete Steps ..................................................................