The Japan Times Tuesday, February 17, 2015 9 opinion New Ukrainian peace deal Great War cost Europe a century David A. Stockman Washington is wrapped in a time bomb The Globalist When President Woodrow Wilson plunged the United States into Europe’s Leonid Bershidsky deal that could detonate at any Though the deal doesn’t grant Putin carnage in 1917, he shed a century-long moment if it is unhappy with Ukraine’s his ultimate wish — to keep Ukraine Republican tradition of anti-militarism Bloomberg compliance with the rest of the terms. within Russia’s orbit economically and and nonintervention in the quarrels of Russia has already shown its negotiat- politically — he couldn’t have hoped for the Old World. When world leaders pull an all-nighter, ing partners how that could happen: The that without a decisive military victory. Needless to say, there was absolutely something has to come out of it. What leaders of the two self-declared “peo- The optics are good for him domestical- nothing noble that came of Wilson’s in- came out of the 17-hour, Ironman-level ple’s republics” of eastern Ukraine, who ly, though, and Putin can hope to cut the tervention. It led to a peace of vengeful endurance test last week in Minsk was a were present in Minsk but not taking costs of war, including those imposed by victors, triumphant nationalists and av- cease-fire deal for eastern Ukraine that part in the main talks, briefly refused to the Western economic sanctions. aricious imperialists — when the war mitigates the Kiev government’s defeat approve the deal about an hour before it Ukrainian President Petro Poroshen- would have otherwise ended in a be- in a war it could not have won, gave Rus- was made public, although they eventu- ko, for his part, will find it hard to spin draggled peace of mutually exhausted sian-backed rebels two days to make ally signed on. the deal as his victory. It’s no wonder he bankrupts and discredited war parties final territorial gains and freezes the The remaining terms strengthen the stormed out of the meeting room sever- on both sides. conflict until next year. rebels’ position, putting the onus of al times during the night and even told By so altering the course of history, The challenge now is to make this maintaining peace on Ukraine. Kiev is an AFP reporter that Russia’s position in Wilson’s war bankrupted Europe and cease-fire stick where previous ones supposed to give amnesty to all the rebel the talks was “unacceptable” — less midwifed 20th-century totalitarianism didn’t. It’s not clear if Russian President fighters, restore the banking system in than two hours before accepting the in Russia and Germany. Vladimir Putin, who has proven to be an the “special status” areas and resume agreement. Both Merkel and Hollande These developments, in turn, eventu- unreliable negotiating partner in recent the payment of pensions and social ben- placed a special emphasis on praising ally led to the Great Depression, World months, will stand by the few conces- efits to residents there. him in their remarks after the talks, and War II, the Holocaust, the Cold War and sions he made. In a major departure from the Sep- they also invited him to a European the permanent U.S. Warfare State and its If he can be held to them, it will be a military-industrial complex. major diplomatic victory for German Almost an entire century onward, let Chancellor Angela Merkel. My bet, how- Petro Poroshenko will find it hard to spin us imagine that the war ended in 1917 ever, is that this is not the final round of by a mutual withdrawal from the utterly high-level talks: The deal resulting from the deal as his victory. But at least Western stalemated trenches of the Western the negotiating marathon is too contra- Front, as it was destined to. dictory to work long term. leaders will still treat him as an ally. There would have been no disastrous Two separate documents came out of summer offensive by the Kerensky gov- the meeting: an empty declaration, in tember agreements, Ukrainian control Union summit in Brussels. Poroshenko’s ernment, or subsequent massive mutiny which the negotiating parties affirm of its border with Russia is only to re- consolation prize is even if his country is in Petrograd that enabled Lenin’s flukish “full respect for the sovereignty and ter- sume by the end of 2015, after local elec- still being violated, the Western leaders seizure of power in November 1917. ritorial integrity of Ukraine,” and a three- tions are held and after Ukraine are willing to treat him as an ally. The 20th century would not have been page, 11-point document purporting to conducts constitutional reform granting Merkel said after the talks that she saddled with a Stalinist nightmare or be a road map to the implementation of permanent autonomy to the rebel areas, had “no illusions” and just a “glimmer of with a Soviet state that poisoned the was never equaled before or since. recognize that the Schlieffen Plan’s inva- last September’s cease-fire agreement. It which include the two biggest cities in hope” that things will work out. It’s true peace of nations for 75 years, while the Alternative history aside, let us also sion through Belgium was no threat to is, in fact, a new deal, more favorable to the east — Donetsk and Luhansk. that any truce will be shaky. Fiercely pa- nuclear sword of Damocles hung over keep a few important facts about World England, but an unavoidable German the Russian-backed rebels than the Sep- This proposed reform is described in triotric Ukrainians who backed Porosh- the planet. War I straight: Proposition No. 1: Plenty defense against a two-front war. tember agreement. some detail in the document. It would enko in recent elections, and especially Likewise, there would have been no of blame to go around. And let us not talk about such noble According to it, fighting was to cease grant the local governments the right to the volunteer fighters in the east, are abomination known as the Versailles The Great War was about nothing war goals as the defense of democracy, at midnight Feb. 15. The Ukrainian mili- form their own police forces and a say in likely to consider it a betrayal of their ef- peace treaty. No “stab in the back” leg- worth dying for and engaged no recog- the vindication of liberalism or the tary was to pull back its artillery at least appointing prosecutors and judges. forts. The rebels and their Russian pup- ends destabilizing Germany, owing to nizable principle of human betterment. thwarting of Prussian autocracy and 50 km from the current separation line, Ukraine would be unable to strip local pet-masters will still want territorial the Weimar government’s forced signing There were many blackish hats, but no militarism. which the rebels have moved signifi- government members of their powers, expansion and stronger guarantees that of the “war guilt” clause. white ones. It was an avoidable calamity In London, Churchill and Kitchener cantly in recent months: and the autonomous regions would Ukraine will not become a full-blown No continuance of England’s brutal issuing from a cacophony of political in- were all about the glory of empire, not In a meaningless compromise, the have the right to choose their own offi- member of Western alliances. post-armistice blockade that delivered competence, cowardice, avarice and the vindication of democracy. rebels were supposed to pull back the cial language — which is certain to be Still, if the artillery remains silent, Germany’s women and children into tomfoolery. In any event, German autocracy was same distance from the line agreed to in Russian rather than Ukrainian. Ukraine will finally get a chance to de- starvation and death and left a demobi- Sure, we can always blame the bom- already on its last leg. And the Austro- September. This means, in theory, that “Russia is a federal state, but our re- velop peacefully and to break with its lized 3-million man army destitute, bit- bastic and impetuous Kaiser Wilhelm Hungarian, Balkan and Ottoman mix of neither side will be able to shell the oth- gions can only dream of even a tenth of post-Soviet habits of bad governance ter and on a permanent political for setting the stage with his foolish dis- nationalities would have erupted in in- er’s territory. these powers,” top Russian anti-Putin and endemic corruption. rampage of vengeance. missal of Bismarck in 1890, his failure to terminable regional conflicts anyway, It also means the pro-Russian forces opposition figure tweet- Putin will get some much-needed So too, there would have been no ac- renew the Russian reinsurance treaty regardless of who won the Great War. get to keep all they have won in the peri- ed after reading the Minsk document. economic breathing space and a path quiescence in the dismemberment of shortly thereafter and his quixotic build- In short, nothing of principle or high- od since September, and probably all Contrary to previous suggestions from toward restoring a workable relationship Germany and the spreading of its parts up of the German Navy after the turn of er morality was at stake in the outcome. they added in the two days during which , the eastern regions will have with at least some Western partners. and pieces to Poland, Czechoslovakia, the century. Proposition No. 2: What U.S. interest? fighting was still permitted, according to no veto over Ukraine’s foreign policy de- And EU leaders will breathe a huge Denmark, , Austria and Italy — But then we must also blame the The war posed no national security the document. cisions. Ukraine, however, is unlikely to sigh of relief at having staved off inter- with the consequent revanchist agita- French for lashing themselves to a war threat whatsoever to the U.S. Presum- Kiev is called on to observe a now- be able to join the North Atlantic Treaty ference by U.S. hawks, who have been tion that nourished the Nazis with declaration that could be triggered by ably, of course, the danger was not the disused law passed by the Ukrainian Organization anytime soon, a point insisting on arming Ukraine. patriotic public support in the rump of the intrigues of a decadent court in St. Entente powers — but Germany and its parliament in September granting spe- French President Francois Hollande These are all worthy achievements, the fatherland. Petersburg — a court where the czar still allies. But how so? cial status to the rebel-held territories. emphasized before the talks. The situa- and the participants in the talks should Nor would there have been the claimed divine rights and the czarina After the Schlieffen Plan offensive It’s supposed to call local elections in tion is far too volatile for that, and the be congratulated for not quitting. Even if French occupation of the Ruhr and the ruled behind the scenes on the hideous failed on Sept. 11, 1914, the German those areas and clearly determine their threat of hostilities resuming will be a this particular truce doesn’t hold, it’s war reparations crisis that led to the de- advice of Rasputin. army became incarcerated in a bloody, borders — but only in accordance with Damocles’ sword hanging over both clear there is a strong will to look for a struction of the German middle class in Likewise, we must blame Russia’s bankrupting, two-front land war that the September deal. Ukraine and NATO. lasting solution. the 1923 hyperinflation. Finally the his- then-Foreign Minister Sazonov for his ensured its inexorable demise. This is a clear contradiction with the All in all, the agreement is as close to tory books would have never recorded delusions of greater Slavic grandeur that Likewise, after the battle of Jutland in military part of the new agreement, a deal on Putin’s terms as decency al- Berlin-based writer Leonid Bershidsky is a the Hitlerian ascent to power and all the had encouraged Serbia’s provocations May 1916, the great German surface leaving separatist gains of the last five lows. That’s why, as he came out of the Bloomberg View contributor. He was the evils that flowed thereupon. after Sarajevo. fleet was bottled up in its homeports — months in limbo, formally ruled from talks in an apparently breezy mood, he founding editor of Russia’s top business Instead, the war of victors made pos- And we must blame the doddering an inert flotilla of steel that posed no Kiev but militarily held by the rebels. quipped that this was “not the best night daily, Vedomosti. sible by Wilson destroyed the liberal in- Emperor Franz Joseph for hanging onto threat to the U.S. coast 6,400 km away. This is a time bomb under today’s of his life but a good morning.” ternational economic order — relatively power into his 67th year on the throne As for the rest of the central powers, free trade, rising international capital and thereby leaving his crumbling em- the Ottoman and Hapsburg empires al- flows and rapidly growing global eco- pire vulnerable to the suicidal impulses ready had an appointment with the nomic integration — which had blos- of his generals. dustbin of history. Twisted spending priorities of a graying nation somed during the 40-year span between Blame also goes to the duplicitous 1870 and 1914. German Chancellor Bethmann-Hollweg David A. Stockman is an author, former That golden age had brought rising for allowing the Austrians to believe that U.S. politician and businessman. He 2025, “real” population-adjusted spend- Amtrak), begin to trim Social Security living standards, stable prices, massive the kaiser endorsed their declaration of served as Ronald Reagan’s budget ROBERT J. ing grows 27 percent for Social Security and Medicare benefits (gradual increas- capital investment, prolific technologi- war on Serbia. director from 1981-1985. SAMUELSON and 24 percent for Medicare, while es in eligibility ages and lower benefits cal progress and pacific relations among And blame goes to Winston Churchill © 2015 The Globalist spending drops 19 percent for defense for wealthier recipients), and pay for the the major nations — a condition that and London’s war party for failing to and 17 percent for “domestic discretion- rest of government with higher taxes. ary” programs. (“Domestic discretion- But both Obama and Republicans evade Washington ary” spending is a catch-all that includes this unpopular exercise. law enforcement, housing, education, Instead, they’ve embraced a policy of Your toothpaste is destroying Asia’s rainforests We are gutting government. It is an ex- energy, food safety and more.) slow-motion spending strangulation. treme irony of the Obama presidency What the dry figures don’t convey is The problem is not the “sequester,” that a proud liberal — someone who be- the degradation of government at the which automatically cuts outlays. It is Adam Minter tivists came up with an idea they called hold themselves to higher environmen- lieves in government’s constructive role agency and program level. This is occur- the spending limits required to stay Shangai “traceability.” The idea was simple: com- tal standards than they ever have before. — is presiding over the harshest squeeze ring, though documenting its extent is within the outlay “caps” needed to avoid bloomberg panies should be able to know the entire Palm oil buyers like Kellogg and General on government since World War II. hard. Francis Collins, head of the Na- sequester. Though the effect in any sin- life story of the palm oil they buy, all the Mills have pledged to follow Wilmar’s What’s happening is simple: Spending tional Institutes of Health, estimates that gle year is modest, the cumulative im- You probably had some palm oil today. way down to the mills where it’s pro- lead. And Krispy Kreme and Dunkin’ on the elderly and health care is slowly the agency’s budget has lost nearly 25 pact is huge. If it wasn’t in your toothpaste, or your cessed, and the very plots of land where Donuts, among many other consumer overwhelming the rest of the federal percent of its purchasing power in the Since 1990, spending on defense and shampoo, it was in the margarine you it was grown. product companies, have already com- government. Spending on other vital ac- last decade. NIH used to approve one of domestic discretionary programs has had at breakfast. Found in roughly half That way, the theory went, they could mitted to using only traceable palm oil tivities (from defense to financial regula- three grant proposals; the ratio now is averaged 7.4 percent of national income of the products sold in modern super- avoid buying from plantations carved for their caloric treats. tion) is being sacrificed to cover the one of six. (gross domestic product). In 2014, that markets, it’s the world’s most popular out of recently cleared rainforest and PepsiCo — which uses palm oil in growing costs of a graying nation. Presumably younger researchers suf- was 6.8 percent of GDP, near a post- edible oil. buy instead from older plantations, or popular snacks like Doritos and Fritos This is the central budget issue of our fer most. Some public health problems World War II low. Under Obama’s bud- It’s also the cause of one of the world’s newer ones carved out of less endan- — has been a prominent holdout on full time. It is largely ignored, as it was in the (say, resistance to existing antibiotics) get, it’s projected at 4.5 percent in 2025. biggest environmental catastrophes, the gered land. traceability. The company claims that it recent unveiling of the administration’s may be underfunded. At some point, this ratcheting down of decimation of southeast Asia’s rainfor- The industry is now starting to catch had already made a commitment to zero 2016 budget. President Barack Obama The Internal Revenue Service blames spending may become politically unsus- ests. Indonesia has lost enough rainfor- on. Three weeks ago, Willmar Interna- deforestation sees no reason to revise its consistently avoids it; most Republicans budget cuts and reduced staffing for de- tainable. (Note: Obama has already pro- est to palm plantations since 1967 to tional, the world’s largest palm oil sup- policy. But it’s probably only a matter of take refuge in his silence. Without politi- lays in mailing refunds and responding posed increases for national parks.) To cover the entire state of Kentucky. And plier, posted information about its mills time until PepsiCo embraces full trace- cal leaders to define the debate, the to taxpayer questions. In 2014, only the extent that Obama’s budget projec- that’s not just horrible for Indonesia. and plantations in Southeast Asia to a ability standards. media find it hard to clarify the conflicts about two-thirds of callers got through tions reflect unrealistic spending as- The typical method for clearing rain- new website that anyone — rivals, They’re already earning the ire of ac- and choices. Policy proceeds by default: to an agent, and waiting times averaged sumptions, future deficits are forests in Southeast Asia is to burn them NGOs, journalists — can access by re- tivists, who argue there’s no reason Pep- Spending on the elderly receives a pass; nearly 20 minutes. (In 2004, nearly 90 understated. to the ground, which releases vast quan- questing a password. siCo should shouldn’t investigate its cuts fall on other programs. percent got through, with typical waiting We all ought to want effective and ef- tities of the greenhouse gases that cause The website doesn’t just include the palm oil supply back to its source, just The result is a spectacular skewing of times of 2½ minutes.) ficient government. But government is global warming. According to one peer- names of the mills from which it buys like its competitors. (Some activists are priorities. Anyone who doubts this The national parks have also been hit. being strangled as the rising costs of ba- reviewed study, the rainforests burned palm oil — it lets visitors check whether already tarring PepsiCo as a company of should study the 2016 budget docu- Since 2010, their funding has decreased by-boomer retirees reduce the capacity in 2010 in just one Indonesian state pro- they’re in an area that’s been deforested. orangutan haters.) ments. Start with the Congressional 12 percent in inflation-adjusted dollars, of other programs to fulfill their mis- duced the same carbon emissions as 28 It also lets people file formal grievances The new system isn’t without its flaws. Budget Office. Based on current laws, and the backlog of deferred mainte- sions. Obama would worsen the prob- million cars. with Wilmar against mills and planta- It could be gamed, for example, by mills the CBO projects that annual federal nance has topped $11 billion, says the lem. Unable to pay for existing The basic problem is that the compa- tions that seem to be acting unscrupu- that lie about where they’re buying raw spending will grow by $2.6 trillion, or 75 National Parks Conservation Associa- programs, he would add more (for “free” nies that use palm oil in their products lously. Wilmar already has plans to palm oil from. But traceability might be percent, between 2014 and 2025. Almost tion, an advocacy group. community college and more preschool usually have little clue where it comes expand the data it discloses to the site. the last chance for what remains of 90 percent of the increase comes from We are allowing demographics to de- programs, among other things) that from, because there are so many mid- Will it work? That’s hard to say right southeast Asia’s rainforests. And if it all three sources: Social Security, health termine national priorities. Nowhere is would intensify the competition for dlemen between them and the people now. According to Forest Heroes, a non- works according to plan, consumers will spending (heavily tilted toward the el- this more apparent than defense, which scarce funds. growing the palm trees. If they knew government organization that’s helping be able to do their part, one oily donut derly despite recent Medicare savings) is scaling back (the army alone is cutting Obama imagines himself a champion they could pay similar prices for palm Wilmar compile the data on its website, and margarine tub at a time. and interest on the federal debt. Spend- an estimated 120,000 active-duty troops of better government. In reality, he is an oil that didn’t endanger the planet(and the company is trying to achieve an un- ing on most other programs doesn’t from its wartime peak) just when foreign agent of gutted government. infuriate activists) many of them would precedented level of transparency for an Adam Minter ([email protected]) is keep pace with inflation. threats seem to be rising. So demo- stop buying it from rainforest arsonists agricultural supplier. Meeting those an American writer based in Asia, where We know this from Obama’s budget graphics even shape global strategy. Robert J. Samuelson writes about and other menaces to the environment. high ambitions won’t be easy. he covers politics, culture, business and documents. One table adjusts major It’s the path of least resistance. Ideally business and economic affairs. Fortunately, that seems to be exactly But in another sense, the traceability junk. He is the author of “Junkyard Planet: spending categories for inflation and we would eliminate nonessential and © 2015 Washington Post Writers Group what’s starting to happen. campaign is already a success. Compa- Travels in the Billion Dollar Trash Trade.” population increases. From 2016 to ineffective programs (farm subsidies, Around five years ago, a group of ac- nies that use palm oil are beginning to

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