What Is Peak Oil? Wrong with This Picture?

Peak Oil and Health Mar 12, 2009

Peak Oil and Health Conference Overview The Convergence of Peak Oil, Climate Change, Our Built Environment, and Overview, Declining Ecosystems Convergence, • Peak oil pathways and Linkages • Converging issues • Peak oil linkages Brian S. Schwartz, MD, MS March 12, 2009 • Peak oil and health • Peak oil “mitigation”

What is What is peak oil? wrong with this picture?

“In Units of Action, Not Just Talk, Oil is The Oil Age Still King” New York Times Congressman Roscoe Bartlett will tell you why December 30, 2007 we know this.

Critical points: Economic Challenges Will Soon Be Here

1. Drilling more or using Petroleum enhanced recovery Prices , Mb/day technologies do not prevent will rise

production declines demand 2. Net energy decline is actually worse 3. Even if we are incorrect about reserves by as much production as 30%, this just delays peak by a decade or so , Mb/day 4. Importers get hurt first and worst (oil price rises Æ You are here economies of exporting countries grow Æ they increase

domestic oil consumption Æ when production declines Æ Petroleum exports decline even more rapidly) Time Matthew Roberts will tell you about these issues.

What We Face By Brian O'Keefe, senior editor • Climate change LAST UPDATED: SEPTEMBER 22, 2008: 4:43 PM EDT • After peak oil “Here comes $500 oil” • A built environment highly reliant on cheap and plentiful oil “If Matt Simmons is right, the • Declining ecosystems, disrupted ecology recent drop in crude prices is an • Accelerating biodiversity and species illusion - and oil could be headed losses for the stratosphere. He's just ¾A complex set of interlinked challenges hoping we can prevent civilization ¾“Converging catastrophes” from imploding.” 2005

IPCC Punch 2007 “Most of the observed Lines s … increase in globally ure averaged temperatures at th per 2001 since the mid-20 century tem “There is new and is very likely* due to the … stronger evidence that observed increase in anthropogenic Challenge #1: 1995 most of the warming observed over the last 50 greenhouse gas “The balance years is attributable to concentrations.” of evidence human activities.” Climate Change 1990 suggests a “The unequivocal discernable detection of the human enhanced influence on greenhouse global effect from climate.” observations is not likely for a decade or more.”

* Likelihood > 90%

Tim Flannery: Climate Change Realities “… the pronouncements of the • GHG emission trajectories over the past several years have been worse than even the IPCC do not represent mainstream worst IPCC projections science, nor even good science, • Ice sheet melting has been much faster than but lowest-common-denominator predicted science – and of course even that • There are concerns that several tipping points will soon be fully engaged – declining albedo, is delivered at glacial speed. If the burning boreal forests, reduced rainfall in IPCC says something, you had Amazon, melting permafrost, enhanced El Niño better believe it – and then allow • There is growing thinking that 450 ppm will for the likelihood that things are far not be safe for the planet and that we may worse than it says they are.” need to get back down to 350 ppm (now at 392 ppm)

Ecosystem Signals Great Barrier Reef • Declining coral reefs Challenge #2: • Loss of arable land, desertification, Declining deforestation • Declines in soil quantity Guardian and quality (fertility) Ecosystems and • Declining fisheries •Very high rates of extinctions Species Losses • Declining aquifers and other fresh water sources Fao.org

Our Major Ecological Challenges Have Been Masked by Cheap Energy • Losing topsoil? Æ Use energy for fertilizers and food transport Challenge #3: • Running out of water? Æ Use energy to drill a deeper hole and pump or desalinate • Oceanic fish species declining? Æ Use Our “Wrong” Built energy to trawl deeper and farther • Getting warmer? Æ Use energy to cool Environment • Declining carrying capacity of ecosystems Æ Use energy to maintain capacity in short term • Sea-level rising? Æ Use energy to build bigger walls • International competition over resources? Æ Use energy to fight wars Modified from McBay

In U.S., Inter-related Issues Top 10 Metro Areas by Land Area Pop. Density Dens. Land area (people Industrial For the past century Rank City / Urban area Country Population (sq Km) / sq Km) or so … 114 New York USA 17,800,000 8,683 2,050 agriculture 50 Tokyo/Yokohama Japan 33,200,000 6,993 4,750 126 Chicago USA 8,308,000 5,498 1,500 203 Atlanta USA 3,500,000 5,083 700 155 Philadelphia USA 5,149,000 4,661 1,100 EXPENSIVECheap and Reliance on 176 Boston USA 4,032,000 4,497 900 plentifulOIL oil automobile 90 Los Angeles USA 11,789,000 4,320 2,750 148 Dallas/Fort Worth USA 4,146,000 3,644 1,150 149 Houston USA 3,823,000 3,355 1,150 144 Detroit USA 3,903,000 3,267 1,200 Suburban Hyper- More generally, of the world’s 250 largest cities, “sprawl” consumerism 82 of the 100 least population-dense are in the United States!

America’s Other Problem

• Extensive sprawl around small towns/cities • The federal government created a new category – micropolitan areas Roanoke Rapids, North Carolina • 28M people (~10%) live in 577 micropolitan areas with 10K-50K population

• City: 17,000 in 8 mi2 • Micro area: 76,000 in 1,360 mi2 • 2,215 vs. 56 per mi2

American Life is Utterly Dependent on Automobiles “Suburbia has a • Americans drive much more than citizens of other tragic destiny. We industrialized countries spent all our wealth • Until recently, annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT) th had only ever increased acquired in the 20 • On average, Americans emit century building an Houston two to four times more CO2 infrastructure of daily per capita than citizens of other industrialized countries life that will not work • Housing values will be very long in the 21st affected by changes in century.” gasoline prices

The Myriad Linkages – An Example

Peak Use more Worse climate More droughts, oil coal impacts floods What is known

Rising Less grain about peak oil & prices production public health? Political More land pressures cleared

Less $ for energy Declining Ecosystem technologies economies degradation

John Holdren: The three ESSENTIAL S Challenges Responses Outcomes U pillars of sustainable human well- S È Ecosystems Conflict T being A ECONOMIC I Species losses Refugees N A Climate change Social B Geopolitics of L scarcity upheaval SOCIO- PEAK OIL E POLITICAL Diminishing Population W Competition E resources morbidity L over resources ENVIRON- L Energy issues - Population MENTAL B mortality E Financial Peak oil has the I Essential N issues potential to significantly Pillars G (Workable disrupt each of these. solutions) (Sustainability)

2007

“This will affect everything in our carbon Jeremy Hess, addicted culture. Its effects will have much more Dan Bednarz, and Dan important chronic impacts than acute climate Barnett will tell change effects and its consequences are likely 2009 you more about to be unevenly distributed…” these issues.

Germany, October 2007 “The world is at the beginning of a structural change of its economic system … [that] will influence almost all aspects of our daily life.”

Energy Inputs Are Critical to All Aspects of Our Lives Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, MPH; Nicholas S. Kelley, MSPH Land use, housing Economy & transportation Two conclusions: “(1) the connections among the global just-in-time economy, energy Public & social Food & agriculture availability, & public health are far more services extensive than almost anyone can imagine; and (2) the public health community has been In addition, oil and gas are used to make largely absent from this consideration and virtually everything we use in our daily lives discussion of energy issues.” Stuart Chaitkin will tell you more about these.

Adapted from John Kaufmann, Oregon Dept of Energy

Fuel shortages Cindy Parker Oil & natural gas will tell you U.N. Population Projections to 2050 more about these. Price increases Transportation – Manufacturing – Food

Economic impacts Opportunities Less consumer spending – Demand for efficient products Business failure – Hardship & services for marginalized & vulnerable populations Advantage for efficient businesses & communities

Social impacts Impact Pathways Stress – Conflict – More demand for social services – Adapted from John Kaufmann, Best guess = medium line Less government revenue Oregon Dept of Energy http://www.theoildrum.com/tag/population

30000 Oil 22500 U.S. Military Launches Alternative-Fuel Push. Dependence on Oil 15000 Seen as Too Risky. By YOCHI J. DREAZEN. May 21, 2008 Page A1

7500 “Some Pentagon officers have embraced Oil, barrels (M) Oil, barrels 0 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 planning around the "peak oil" theory … that the Plots modified from Heinberg 8000 world's oil production is about to plateau … 7000 PopulationAPO and Population Robert6000 Lawrence will tell us about peak oil’s implications for Earlier this year, they brought … investment 5000 food production. 4000 banker Matthew Simmons to the Pentagon for a 3000 With very high fossil fuel inputs to food production relative to 2000 food calories derived (10 to 100 to 1), climate change impacts presentation … he warned that under the theory Source: C.J. Campbell 1000on food production, and declining ecosystem services for 0 “energy security becomes an oxymoron.” ” World population (M) population World production,1600 1700 what are1800 the implications1900 2000for populations?2100 2200

EROEI: Energy returned on What about other energy invested http://www.pbs.org/wnet/nature energy options? Energy used to capture resources cannot exceed the energy derived from those resources.

Adapted from John Kaufmann, Oregon Dept of Energy

Adapted from McBay To Maintain Industrial Society, Energy Must … Bad news … • Be rapidly scalable to needed capacity Many believe there are no • Have a high EROEI • Be transportable, storable, energy-dense alternatives that meet all these – Oil is energy dense, infrastructures are in place criteria. • Be renewable – If not, only postpones the problem (e.g., nuclear) Economic conditions are likely • Be ecologically sane to motivate considerable – Oil sands and shales are not changes in how we live. Stuart Chaitkin will tell you more about these.

“A Harsh Reality” What Must Be Done? The Real New Deal – Post Carbon Institute 12/08 • Oil: Peaking in the next three • Make a massive and immediate shift to years, possibly already past peak renewable energy • Natural gas: Peaking in the next • Electrify the transportation system three to 13 years • Rebuild the electricity grid • De-carbonize and relocalize the food system • Coal: Peaking in the next 13 • Retrofit building stock for energy efficiency and years energy production • Nuclear: Probably peaking in the • Deal with transportation and land use next 10 years, with many 2008 • Relocalization, transition town movement, variables, but its use won’t development of community resilience increase substantially Lillian Shirley will address some of these.

Conclusions Thank you • Serious concerns expressed by many competent, unbiased professionals • Oil peaking will happen, timing is uncertain “My grandfather rode a camel, my • Although focus has been on liquid fuels, supplies of father rode a camel, I drive a natural gas, coal, & uranium are finite too Mercedes, my son drives a Land • The risks to economies, food, public health are very large but have not been rigorously evaluated; and will Rover, his son will drive a Land Rover, interact with climate change & other problems but his son will ride a camel.” • Probably not possible to mitigate all risks now – too late • Due to costs and declining energy resources, we probably only get one chance to get the next energy Sheikh Rashid bin Saeed Al Maktoum (1912-90) regime right Prime Minister of United Arab Emirates, 1979-90