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CFA Institute Research Challenge CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted by CFA Society Pakistan Karachi School of Business and Leadership CFA Institute Research Challenge 2017 Karachi School of Business and Leadership – Student Research This report is published for educational Financial Sector, Private Commercial Banks purposes only by students competing in The CFA Institute Research Challenge. Pakistan Stock Exchange (“PSX”) Bank Alfalah Limited Tuesday, 24 Jan, 2017 Ticker: BAFL (PSX), BAFL.KA (Reuters) Price (as of 20 Jan ’17): PKR 40.77 Recommendation: BUY Target Price: PKR 46.08 Upside Potential: 13.02% Rationalizing Cost to Drive Profits We initiate coverage of Bank Alfalah Limited (BAFL) with a buy call and December 2017 Shares target price of PKR 46, which offers a 13% upside from current stock price. Market Cap (PKR) 65,084.47 mn Outstanding Shares 1595.21 mn Paradigm shift towards consolidation. The bank is swiftly altering its focus from the brick and Free Float 45.0 % mortar business of aggressive branch network expansion mode. While lean interest rates linger on 52 wk Avg. Daily 279.8875 mn in the banking industry, BAFL is downsizing its cost by bringing in operational efficiencies and Turnover bringing stability to the bank’s bottom-line. Reflecting on the cost rationalization, we expect the 52 wk High | Low (PKR) 40.93 | 23.88 Abu Dhabi Group growth in administrative cost to be less than that in the last five years. Therefore, the cost to Major Shareholders IFC income ratio shall remain stable, hovering around 60%, in the forecasted period. (Source: PSX, Company Data) Re-profiling deposits: Quality over Quantity. With consolidation being the focal point and BAFL’s acumen on industry dynamics of shrunken interest rates, they have changed their deposits strategy Financial Ratios – CY16 Q3 towards margin maximization at the expense of a marginal loss in market share from 6.88% in CY15 Book Value/ Share (PKR) 37.58 to an expected 6.0% in CY16. Furthermore, the bank has been able to shed its high cost fixed EPS (PKR) 4.76 deposits. In pursuit of better profitability, we expect the bank to continue on the trail of seeking low DPS (PKR) 1.18 Dividend Yield 9% cost deposits for possibly the next five years. Accordingly, we anticipate the bank's CASA ratio to R OE 12% grow to 83% in CY21F from 75% in CY16. Furthermore, BAFL’s vast array of banking products ROA 0.84% coupled with its successful Islamic Banking venture perfectly complements the profitability of the (Source: Company Data) bank. Enhanced Asset Quality. Re-profiling deposits together with improved asset quality, the bank has Forward 12M Ratios been successfully able to impress the investors by showing a drop in NPL to gross loans ratio to a Price to BV 1.04 mere 5% in CY16 from 9% in CY11. Building on the positive economic outlook and improved P/E 8.3 recoveries, we expect the NPL ratio to further decrease to 4% in CY21 with the coverage ratio Price to Total Assets 0.08 increasing from 87% in CY15 to 91% in CY16, partly due to a one off provision amounting to PKR BV/Share (PKR) 39.15 600mn following Q3CY16. We anticipate BAFL to maintain the coverage ratio near the 90% mark up (Source: Team Estimates) until CY21. Further strengthening its position in the industry, BAFL has been able to reduced infection ratio in Q3CY16 (5.72%) to almost half of the industry average (10%). Going forward, StockShare Price Price Movements Movements following the conservative approach, we anticipate BAFL to keep the provisions as advances in KSE 100 BAFL SMEs would be on the rise. Hence, additional decline in the infection ratio is expected to fall to 60,000.00 40 3.9% in CY21. 50,000.00 35 30 Improved Capital Base. Sticky CAR situation persisted throughout 2015 which shrunk the bank’s 40,000.00 25 loan portfolio by almost 2%. However, in CY16 the YoY growth in CAR was noticeable at around 4% 30,000.00 20 with an uptick from 13.40% in CY15 to 13.93% in CY16. Advances shall pick up in CY17, particularly 20,000.00 15 10 as the bank has entered into a strategic consortium with the Industrial and Commercial Bank of 10,000.00 5 China (ICBC) for syndicated loans as a part of CPEC. With healthy assets and re-profiled deposits, we 0.00 0 expect the bank to have ample liquidity to maintain a buffer over statutory requirements, even with Jul Jan Jun Oct Feb Apr Sep Dec Aug Nov Mar May the revised BASEL III, with CAR to be reinstated at 12.5%. Consequently, going forward, we expect (Source: PSX) the bank to normalize its payout ratio from 25% in CY16 to almost 50% in CY17, further elevating it to 69% in CY21, the rate the bank had been maintaining in the years preceding CY15. These increases in payouts would be reflective in the financial statements of proceeding years. We, thus, forecast the payout to increase to PKR 2.42 per share in CY17. Improved Economic outlook aids recuperating industry. Emerging economic growth trajectory coupled with a growing banking industry, despite international implications in terms of increasing oil prices, a sustained inflationary outlook and moderate reduction in budget deficit along with increasing foreign exchange reserves, Pakistan’s economy is on the path of recovery and growth with a positive future. With CPEC projects lined up (power, transport, steel, cement), business activity is likely to rise simultaneously increasing the private credit appetite and ringing in a revival in the banking industry. 1 | P a g e CFA Institute Research Challenge 2017 Business Description Incorporated in the year 1992, Bank Alfalah commenced operations in November 1997. In a span of less than 20 years, Bank Alfalah has steadily built itself up to be the sixth largest bank in Pakistan, standing Credit Cards toe to toe with the largest banks in the country (Appendix 1). Owned by the Abu Dhabi Group, the bank Market Leader also has an international presence in Afghanistan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, as well as a representative office in the UAE. The Pakistan Credit Rating Agency (PACRA) has rated the bank ‘AA’ Entity rating for the long term and ‘A1+’ for the short term, reflecting, as per PACRA, the bank’s established position as the sixth largest in terms of deposits and its healthy profitability over the years. In addition to posting consistent results (about 30% growth in PAT in 2015), the bank has worked its way to complying with the highest standards of code of conduct, professional integrity, regulatory compliance and corporate Auto Finance Branchless governance. Market Leader Banking 4th Leading Player Bank Alfalah has a diverse product portfolio including commercial and retail banking, corporate and investment banking, consumer banking and credit, SME, Islamic banking and asset financing (Appendix 1). The bank at present has an extensive reach across Pakistan, with over 650 branches in more than 200 cities all over the country. This has augmented the bank’s deposit base to more than PKR 640 billion Islamic Banking over the years. Also, Bank Alfalah has the second largest Islamic window in the country, in comparison 2nd Largest in to other conventional banks, with more than 150 dedicated Islamic branches. Conventional Banks The bank has two subsidiaries: Alfalah Securities (Private) Limited – Alfalah securities is a corporate brokerage firm offering equity/money market brokerage and investment banking services. Bank Alfalah owns 97.91% (Source: Company Data) ownership interest. Alfalah GHP Investment Management – Alfalah GHP Investment Management manages mutual funds and provides investment advisory services to retail, corporate and institutional investors. Bank Alfalah owns 40.22% ownership interest. Change in Management. Bank Alfalah underwent a strategic shift when Mr. Atif Bajwa, the current First bank in President and CEO, came on board in 2011. With him came a change in focus and a change in Pakistan SME Toolkit with IFC management, which was best reflected in the bank’s rebranding in 2014. The bank shifted its focus to now emphasize on a customer centric approach through innovation. This premeditated shift was further supported by the bank’s strategic alliance with International Finance Corporation (IFC) in 2014 to support SME financing. The alliance bolstered Bank Alfalah’s capital through an equity injection of (Source: IFC, Company Data) USD 67 million, giving IFC a 15% equity stake in the bank. 2012 2013 2014 2015 The change in management turned around the bank’s performance, with reported PAT of PKR 4.6 Total Staff billion in 2012 and a nearly 20% rise in advances and CASA deposits. 9,897 10,598 10,531 10,320 Strength Competitive Advantage. Bank Alfalah is one of the leading players in consumer finance, with its flagship Conventional 353 423 480 484 credit card and auto financing business being the market leaders in the industry. Furthermore, in the Branches growing Islamic banking segment, the bank has the second largest Islamic banking window within Islamic Branches 110 140 157 158 conventional banks. The bank has also leveraged its strengths in technological innovation to launch Total Branches 463 563 637 642 mobile banking, a dedicated mobile application ‘αlphα’, mobile wallets, as well as has become the (Source: Company Data) fourth leading branchless banking player in Pakistan. The Way Forward. Having expanded over the last few years, the management is now aiming on operational efficiencies, as opposed to focussing on market share. This primarily involves bringing down the administrative expenses. In line with the bank’s current focus on a consumer centric approach through innovation, the bank has taken certain initiatives: i.
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