07 January 2013 Americas/United States Equity Research Telecommunications Equipment / MARKET WEIGHT Handset Industry 2013 Outlook Research Analysts INDUSTRY PRIMER Kulbinder Garcha 212 325 4795
[email protected] Bigger market, Apple and Samsung win Achal Sultania 44 20 7883 6884 ■ Market size underestimated for both smartphones/handsets. Our bottom-up
[email protected] analysis suggests that the market underestimates the size of low-end ‘white- Talal Khan, CFA label’ smartphones, which causes us to restate our 2012/2013 volume estimates 212 325 8603 for the smartphone market higher by 6%/15% and 3%/4% for overall handsets.
[email protected] We also raise our smartphone volume estimates by 20-25% long term and now Matthew Cabral estimate 1.43bn/1.74bn smartphones to be shipped in 2015/2017. We believe 212 538 6260 that the growth of ‘white-label’ smartphone market specifically poses a threat for
[email protected] vendors like Nokia, RIMM, LG and possibly Samsung, given their exposure to feature phones and low-end smartphone segments. Ray Bao 212 325 1227 ■ Raising LT smartphone units to 1.74bn – a barbell develops for price points.
[email protected] We believe that the addressable market for smartphones is 4.95bn longer term, Asian Research Analysts resulting in effective penetration of only 24% currently given our estimate of 1.2bn smartphone users by end of 2012. We expect effective smartphone Randy Abrams, CFA 886 2 2715 6366 penetration to rise to ~80% long term driving smartphone volumes of
[email protected] 1.43bn/1.74bn units by 2015/2017 (26%/19% CAGR over this period).