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NEXI 15 April 2020

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NEXI 15 April 2020 NEXI Company report Hold (unchanged) 15 April 2020 – 5:30 PM MARKET PRICE: EUR13.74 TARGET PRICE: EUR14.80 (from EUR15.20) Financial Tech. - Payments Limited downside, but 100% exposure to Data Italy and to consumptions not in favour Shares Outstanding (m): 627.8 Market Cap. (EURm) : 8,626 While it is still unclear how COVID-19 will develop, we reassessed our view on NEXI based on two scenarios. Our base case assumes the Enterprise Value (EURm): 10,876 infection normalizing towards the end of 2Q20 and incorporates a Free Float (%): 46.6% "swoosh"-shape recovery thereafter. In this scenario, we are revising our EPS estimates by 12% for 2020-22. We are revising the TP less Av. Daily Trad. Vol. (000): 3,908 than the estimates cut (-3%, to EUR14.8 from EUR15.20) for two Mercury UK reasons: 1) we now incorporate a 30% chance of a merger with SIA; b) Main Shareholder: (50.2%) we are structurally increasing the penetration of digital payment in Italy. Reuters/Bloomberg: NEXI.MI NEXI IM In the worst-case scenario, we assumed that either COVID-19 will last longer or that it will resurge during the fall season (thus also troubling 52-Week Range (EUR) 7.8 16.9 financial markets for equities but also credit, ABS and the likes). In this Source: FactSet, UBI Banca estimates case, the EPS cut will be 20% and the fair value would be EUR13.7 (thus offering no downside vs. current prices, also because in this case, Performance the chances of a merger with SIA would increase to 50%). While we 1m 3m 12m acknowledge that the stock has limited downside, we confirm our Hold rating on this market darling because we don’t favour its 100% exposure Absolute 27.9% 10.2% n.a. to Italy and to consumptions. Rel. to FTSE IT 12.8% 29.7% n.a. > Our base case: a "swoosh"-shape bounce. In this case we are assuming that Source: FactSet the penetration of digital payment should reach almost 30% in 2020 and 32% in Graph area Absolute/Relative 12 M 2021, due to COVID-19 impact. Nexi will benefit from having a part of its revenues (that we estimate being 52% in 2019) fix (i.e. not linked to transaction volumes/value). We assume it to decline 2% YoY in 2020 (due to merchant closures) and then back to growth in 2021. For the remaining part of the revenues, equally split between hardly hit by COVID (entertainment/travel like), benefiting from COVID (pharmacies/IT/food delivery & online) and somewhat hit (i.e. discretionary consumptions), we modelled a -3.5% YoY in 2020 and then back to growth from 2021. As for costs, two/thirds of which are fixed, we incorporated some additional cost optimization efforts. We increased the refinancing cost of the ISP deal to 2.25% from previous 1.25% while leaving unchanged our capex estimates. > Our worst case: a prolonged recession. In this case the fix share of revenues would decline by 5% YoY in 2020 and then back to growth in 2021 (although at a Source: FactSet lower pace). Another lockdown would be needed in October (or, alternatively, Massimo Vecchio consumptions would recover at a lower speed) so, the transaction volume/value Senior Analyst part of Nexi revenues would decline by -8.5% YoY in 2020 and then back to [email protected] growth from 2021. Cost optimization will accelerate, and capex would be reduced. Tel. +39 02 62753016 > Enough liquidity to cover maturities up to 2024. Total liquidity amounts to Dario Fasani EUR721 million (of which EUR350 million of committed credit lines) with no major Analyst [email protected] maturity until 2024 (when EUR1.8 billion of term-loan and a bond would expire). Tel. +39 02 62753014 The ISP deal, which should have been financed through a bond issuance, is currently funded by a bridge facility that expires in 2021. Closing the deal is www.ubibanca. com/equity-research therefore not linked to short-term bond issuances but the refinancing of the bridge should take place sooner rather than later. Financials Ratios priced on 14 April 2020 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E Revenues (EURm) 984 1068 1168 1258 P/E (x) 44.2 43.7 33.8 26.7 EBITDA (EURm) 503 603 701 795 P/CF (x) 35.1 33.1 25.7 23.0 EBITDA margin (%) 51.1% 56.5% 60.0% 63.2% P/BV (x) 4.5 5.7 4.9 4.1 EBIT (EURm) 382 453 526 615 Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% EPS (EUR) 0.22 0.31 0.41 0.52 EV/EBITDA (x) 14.8 18.0 15.1 12.8 CFPS (EUR) 0.27 0.41 0.53 0.60 Debt/Equity (x) 1.1 1.5 1.1 0.8 DPS (EUR) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Debt/EBITDA (x) 2.9 3.7 2.8 2.0 So urce: Company data, UBI Banca estimates Source: Company data, UBI Banca estimates 1 NEXI 15 April 2020 Key Financials (EURm) 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E Revenues 984 1068 1168 1258 EBITDA 503 603 701 795 EBIT 382 453 526 615 NOPAT 312 363 425 497 Free Cash Flow 170 260 335 375 Net Capital Employed 2795 3772 3723 3691 Shareholders' Equity 1325 1522 1777 2101 Net Financial Position 1471 2250 1945 1590 Source: Company data, UBI Banca estimates Key Profitability Drivers 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E Net Debt/EBITDA (x) 2.9 3.7 2.8 2.0 Net Debt/Equity (x) 1.1 1.5 1.1 0.8 Interest Coverage (%) 3.1 8.1 10.1 12.1 Free Cash Flow Yield (%) 2.8% 3.0% 3.9% 4.3% ROE (%) 10.2% 13.0% 14.4% 15.4% ROI (%) 13.6% 12.0% 14.1% 16.7% ROCE (%) 9.1% 8.0% 9.5% 11.2% Source: Company data, UBI Banca estimates Key Valuation Ratios 2019A* 2020E 2021E 2022E P/E (x) 44.2 43.7 33.8 26.7 P/BV (x) 4.5 5.7 4.9 4.1 P/CF (x) 35.1 33.1 25.7 23.0 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% EV/Sales (x) 7.6 10.2 9.1 8.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 14.8 18.0 15.1 12.8 EV/EBIT (x) 19.5 24.0 20.1 16.6 EV/CE (x) 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.8 Source: Company data, UBI Banca estimates * Based on 2019 average price Key Value Drivers 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E Payout 0% 0% 15% 20% NWC/Sales -5.2% -6.1% -6.8% -7.5% Capex/Sales 17.1% 13.8% 12.4% 10.3% Source: Company data, UBI Banca estimates 2 NEXI 15 April 2020 Recent developments > Rumors of a merger with SIA intensify. An article appeared on 11 April on the Italian newspaper “Il Messaggero” (edited in Rome) stated that Nexi management officially proposed to SIA a merger and that CDP (SIA major shareholder with 83.1%) is actively exploring the option. According to the article, now that the proposal is official, documents can be exchanged, and the talks may become more real. SIA Chairman (Mr Sarmi) and Nexi CEO (Mr Bertoluzzo) are the two managers in charge of the negotiations. The article says that, while SIA had begun an IPO process, it has always been a dual track and, with current market conditions, the IPO seems less likely. CDP wishes to have the control of the combined entity as long-term industrial shareholder and ISP may also remain in the shareholders base. > S&P confirmed Nexi long term rating at BB-, revising down the outlook to stable (from positive). On 8 April, S&P issued a report saying that its decision was based on the impact that Covid-19 will have on Italian consumers which could weaken Nexi’s revenues and EBITDA in the short term. This, in turns, could weaken the Debt/EBITDA ratio closer to the high-end of the 4-5x range for the period 2019-2021. The rating however was confirmed because S&P expects Debt/EBITDA to remain within the afore-mentioned rating. 3 NEXI 15 April 2020 Financial Projections > Our assumptions on COVID-19 . Based on talks we had with pharmaceuticals, vaccines and diagnostics companies and with public health operators we believe that: a) A vaccine for the mass population would not be ready before fall 2021 but it should be ready for healthcare operators in fall 2020; b) Drug approvals at best should arrive by fall 2020; c) Serology testing is probably the faster and easier way to stabilize the economy by allowing immune people to avoid the lockdown; d) Very likely the virus would re-emerge in the fall so, social distancing is here to stay for a while. Based on this top-down assumption, we built two scenarios. In any case, we assume an increase in the penetration of digital payment in Italy because of the different behaviours induced by COVID- 19. We now expect penetration to grow by 260bps YoY in 2020 and 300bps in 2021 as opposed to the 160bps we had before (which reflected the historical growth rate). > A “swoosh” shape recovery: our base case scenario. In this case the lockdown in Italy should finish at the beginning of May with industrial production to begin some days before that. The rest of the world should follow with a couple of weeks of delay.
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