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19 JUNE, 2021 FSR No.19 Dated: 19-06-2021

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19 JUNE, 2021 FSR No.19 Dated: 19-06-2021 Central Water Commission Upper Ganga Basin Organisation, Lucknow Daily Flood Situation Report Cum Advisories Date: 19 JUNE, 2021 FSR No.19 Dated: 19-06-2021 1. Weather forecast by IMD I. SYNOPTIC SITUATION: ♦ Southwest monsoon has further advanced into remaining parts of north Arabian Sea, Saurashtra, Gujarat region & Madhya Pradesh, entire Kutch, some more parts of Rajasthan and west Uttar Pradesh today, the 19th June 2021. ♦ The northern Limit of southwest monsoon (NLM) now passes through Lat. 26°N / Long. 70°E, Barmer, Bhilwara, Dholpur, Aligarh, Meerut, Ambala and Amritsar as on today, the 19th June 2021. ♦ Further advance of southwest monsoon into remaining parts of Rajasthan, west Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi and Punjab is likely to be slow as large scale features are not favourable and the forecast wind pattern by the numerical models do not indicate any favourable condition for sustained rainfall over the region during the forecast period. ♦ The Low pressure area over southeast Uttar Pradesh & neighbourhood with the associated cyclonic circulation extending upto mid tropospheric levels persists. ♦ The trough from West Rajasthan to northeast Bay of Bengal across south Haryana, center of low pressure area over southeast Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal extending upto 0.9 km above mean sea level persists. ♦ The Western Disturbance as a trough in mid & upper tropospheric westerlies with its axis at 5.8 km above mean sea level roughly along Long. 72°E to the north of Lat. 25°N persists. ♦ The cyclonic circulation over south Pakistan & neighbourhood now lies over southwest Rajasthan & neighbourhood between 1.5 km & 7.6 km above mean sea level tilting southwestwards with height. ♦ The cyclonic circulation over north Rajasthan & neighbourhood now lies over south Haryana & neighbourhood at 0.9 km above mean sea level. II (a) DETERMINISTIC FORECAST (QPF): S. Basin QPF (mm) Sub-basin Name No. Name Day-1 Day-2 Day-3 Day-4 Day-5 (19/06) (20/06) (21/06) (22/06) (23/06) * * * * * 1. Alaknanda Alaknanda 11-25 0.1-10 0.1-10 0.1-10 0.1-10 2. Bhagirathi Bhagirathi 11-25 0.1-10 0.1-10 0.1-10 0.1-10 Chhatnag to Ganga 11-25 0.1-10 0.1-10 0.1-10 0.1-10 3. Mirzapur Narora to Ganga 11-25 0.1-10 0.1-10 0.1-10 0.1-10 4. Phaphamau 5. Ganga Phaphamau to Ballia 26-37 11-25 0.1-10 0.1-10 0.1-10 6. Ganga Gomti 26-37 0.1-10 0.1-10 0.1-10 0.1-10 7. Ganga Sai 26-37 0.1-10 0.1-10 0.1-10 0.1-10 8. Ganga Upper Ganga 11-25 0.1-10 0.1-10 0.1-10 0.1-10 9. Ghaghra Lower Ghaghra 11-25 11-25 0.1-10 0.1-10 0.1-10 10. Ghaghra Middle Ghaghra 11-25 11-25 0.1-10 0.1-10 0.1-10 11. Ghaghra Upper Ghaghra 11-25 11-25 0.1-10 0.1-10 0.1-10 12. Ramganga Ramganga 11-25 0.1-10 0.1-10 0.1-10 0.1-10 13. Rapti Rapti 11-25 11-25 0.1-10 0.1-10 0.1-10 14. Sharda Sharda 26-37 0.1-10 0.1-10 0.1-10 0.1-10 II (b) DETERMINISTIC FORECAST (DISTRIBUTION): Intensity (I) and Spatial Distribution (D) Sub- Sr. Basin Day-1 Day-2 Day-3 Day-4 Day-5 basin No. Name Name (19/06) * (20/06) * (21/06) * (22/06) * (23/06) * I D I D I D I D I D 1. Alaknanda Alaknanda M FWS L SCT L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL 2. Bhagirathi Bhagirathi M FWS L SCT L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL Chhatnag to 3. Ganga M FWS L SCT L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL Mirzapur Narora to 4. Ganga M FWS L SCT L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL Phaphamau Phaphamau 5. Ganga M FWS M SCT L SCT L ISOL L ISOL to Ballia 6. Ganga Gomti M FWS L SCT L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL 7. Ganga Sai M FWS L SCT L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL Upper 8. Ganga M SCT L SCT L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL Ganga Lower 9. Ghaghra M SCT M SCT L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL Ghaghra Middle 10. Ghaghra M SCT M SCT L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL Ghaghra Upper Ghaghra M SCT M SCT L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL 11. Ghaghra 12. Ramganga Ramganga M FWS L SCT L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL 13. Rapti Rapti M SCT M SCT L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL 14. Sharda Sharda M FWS L SCT L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL III. HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING: Day-1 Day-2 Day-3 Day-4 Day-5 S. Basin Sub-basin (19/06) * (20/06) * (21/06) * (22/06) * (23/06) * No. Name Name I D I D I D I D I D 1. Alaknanda Alaknanda VH ISOL 2. Bhagirathi Bhagirathi H ISOL Chhatnag to Ganga VH ISOL H ISOL 3. Mirzapur Narora to Ganga H ISOL 4. Phaphamau Phaphamau to Ganga VH ISOL 5. Ballia 6. Ganga Gomti H ISOL 7. Ganga Sai H ISOL 8. Ganga Upper Ganga H ISOL 9. Ghaghra Lower Ghaghra H ISOL H ISOL 10. Ghaghra Middle Ghaghra H ISOL 11. Ghaghra Upper Ghaghra 12. Ramganga Ramganga VH ISOL 13. Rapti Rapti H ISOL VH ISOL 14. Sharda Sharda VH ISOL IV. PROBABILISTIC FORECAST: QPF Probability (%) Day-1 Day-2 Day-3 Day-4 Day-5 Basin Sub-basin (19/06) * (20/06) * (21/06) * (22/06) * (23/06) * Name Name (QPF categories) (QPF categories) (QPF categories) (QPF categories) (QPF categories) 10 10 10 10 10 25 50 100 25 50 100 25 50 100 25 50 100 25 50 100 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1 0 0. 11 26 51 >100 0 0.1 11 26 51 >100 0 0.1 11 26 51 >100 0 0.1 11 26 51 >100 0 0.1 11 26 51 >100 Alaknanda Alaknanda Bhagirathi Bhagirathi Chhatnag to Ganga Mirzapur Narora to Ganga Phaphamau Phaphamau to Ganga Ballia Ganga Gomti Ganga Sai Ganga Upper Ganga Ghaghra Lower Ghaghra Middle Ghaghra Ghaghra Ghaghra Upper Ghaghra Ramganga Ramganga Rapti Rapti Sharda Sharda 2. Summary of flood situation as per CWC flood forecasting network Flood Situation on 19 June, 2021 2.1 Rainfall Situation Amount of rainfall recorded at 8:30 hours IST of today ((≥ 50 mm or more) Name of Place (State) Rainfall (in mm) Koteshwar (U.K) 89.8 Ganga Nagar (U.K) 87.2 Joshimath (U.K) 97.2 Rudraprayag (U.K) 103.8 Sri Nagar (U.K) 128.0 Marora (U.K) 126.2 Rishikesh (U.K) 53.0 Kanpur (U.P) 93.2 Dalmau (U.P) 58.8 Varanasi (U.P) 65.6 Moradabad (U.P) 96.8 Pancheshwar (U.P) 83.2 Rihand Dam (M.P) 61.0 2.2 LEVEL FORECAST LEVEL FORECAST No. of Forecasting S.No. Flood Situations Sites Extreme Flood Situation: A. (Site (s) where the previous Highest Flood Level (HFL) is exceeded or equalized) 0 Severe Flood Situation : (Site(s) where water Level touching or exceeding the Danger Level but below 0 B. Highest Flood Level(HFL) Above Normal Flood Situation: C. (Site (s) where water level touching or exceeding the warning Level but below 05 Danger Level) Total Numbers of Sites above Warning Level (A+B+C) 05 INFLOW FORECAST Number of Sites for which inflow forecasts issued: 1 2.3 Above Normal (Water Level touching or exceeding the warning Level but below Danger Level) Previous Actual Level Forecast Name of Flood District State Danger Warning Highest river Forecasting Level(m) Level (m) Level year Level Time Trend Level Date Time Trend Sites (m) (m) (m) Ghaghra Elginbridge Barabanki U.P 106.07 105.07 107.62 2014 105.836 1400 R 105.85 20.06.2021 0800 R Ghaghra Ayodhya Ayodhya U.P 92.73 91.73 94.01 2009 92.30 1400 R 92.40 20.06.2021 0800 R Ghaghra Turtipar Ballia U.P 64.01 63.01 66.00 1998 63.68 1400 R 63.80 20.06.2021 0800 R Rapti Balrampur Balrampur U.P 104.62 103.62 105.54 2017 104.54 1400 F 104.00 20.06.2021 0800 F Rapti Birdghat Gorakhpur U.P 74.98 73.98 77.54 1998 74.29 1400 R 74.45 20.06.2021 0800 R 2.4 Severe Flood Situation (Water Level touching or exceeding the Danger Level but below Highest Flood Level (HFL)) Flood District State Previous Highest Actual Level Forecast Name of Danger Warning Forecasting river Level(m) Level (m) Level (m) Sites Level(m) Date Level(m) Time Trend Date Time Trend * * Note - No station is in this situation Dated 19.06.2021 2.5 Extreme Flood Situation (Water Level exceeded or equalized Highest Flood Level (HFL)) Previous Highest Actual Level Forecast Flood Name of District State Danger Warning river Forecasting Level(m) Level (m) Sites Level(m) Date Level(m) Time Trend Level Date Time Trend (m) * * Note - No station is in this situation Dated 19.06.2021 2.6 Inflow Forecast Previous Highest Actual Level Forecast Name of Flood District State HFL(m) FRL(m) Discharge Discharge D Date Time Trend Date Time Trend river Forecasting Sites (Q) (Q) (Q) Sharda Banbasa Champawat U.K 223.3 222.96 223.3 2013 4935.33 0800 R 5200.00 20.06.2021 0800 R Barrage Advisory on Hydro Meteorological Situation Expected from 20-06-2021 to 21-06-2021 As per rainfall pattern given in section II, Alaknanda, Bhagirathi & Ganga river basins are expected to receive moderate to heavy rainfall at widespread places in next 48 hrs.
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