Do Debris Flows Pose a Hazard to Mountain-Front Property in Metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona?∗

Ronald I. Dorn Arizona State University

Remnants of old debris flows occur on mountains that have been surrounded by growing suburbs of metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona, including on steep slopes above large single-family dwellings. Varnish microlamination and lead-profile dating techniques measured ages of 34 debris-flow levees in nine randomly selected catchments above home sites. Four catchments experienced debris flows in the last century, and four others had events in the last 350 years. Debris flows likely pose a modern hazard in Phoenix and perhaps other growing cities in the desert Southwest. Key Words: debris flow, desert, geomorphology, hazards, urban sprawl.

Los restos de antiguos flujos de detritos se presentan en las montanas˜ que estan´ siendo rodeadas por suburbios del area´ metropolitana de Phoenix, Arizona, incluso en las laderas inclinadas situadas mas´ arriba de residencias unifamiliares. Con tecnicas´ de datacion´ por barniz de microlaminacion´ y perfil de plomo se midio´ la edad de 34 elevamientos de flujo de detritos para nueve captaciones situadas arriba de las viviendas, seleccionadas aleatoriamente. Cuatro de esas captaciones experimentaron flujos de detritos durante el pasado siglo, y otras cuatro tuvieron eventos de tal naturaleza durante los pasados 350 anos.˜ Los flujos de detritos sin duda representan un riesgo moderno en Phoenix y quizas´ en otras ciudades en expansion´ en el Sudoeste desertico.´ Palabras clave: flujo de detritos, desierto, geomorfologıa,´ riesgos, expansion´ urbana descontrolada.

ebris flows are fast-moving mass wasting Debris flows are a recognized hazard in D events where torrents of rock and mud a host of urban settings (McCall 1997), launch down steep mountain slopes, sometimes including beneath burned hillsides of South- disturbing only wild lands (Innes 1983; Iverson ern California (Cooke 1984; Keeley 2002), 1997; Bovis and Jakob 1999). Where the built within urban steeplands of humid tropical environment abuts steep slopes, however, de- settings (Gupta and Ahmad 1999), and where bris flows can impact homes and urban infras- structures are built under steep slopes in cold,

Downloaded by [Arizona State University] at 19:52 24 April 2012 tructure. Debris flows are not floods. They are wet environments (Decaulne 2002; Glassey not giant rockslides. They are slurries that of- et al. 2002). Despite this general awareness, ten contain large amounts of rock material that debris flows are not recognized as a hazard start on steep slopes, continue down channels, for development in metropolitan Phoenix and and can eventually reach buildings and roads. other arid southwestern cities. More than fifty The Federal Emergency Management Agency different mountain masses are contiguous with (FEMA) treats debris flows as a distinct type of homes in metropolitan Phoenix (Figure 1), and natural hazard (FEMA 2009). housing developments now abut twenty-three

∗This article was supported, in part, by an Arizona State sabbatical. I thank anonymous reviewers for suggested improvements to the article, Google Earth for use of images for noncommercial purposes (http://www.google.com/permissions/geoguidelines.html), and the Maricopa County Tax Assessor’s Ofﬁce for access to high-resolution aerial photography.

C The Professional Geographer, 64(2) 2012, pages 197–210 " Copyright 2012 by Association of American Geographers. Initial submission, February 2010; revised submission, May 2010; ﬁnal acceptance, July 2010. Published by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. 198 Volume 64, Number 2, May 2012

Figure 1 Locations of randomly selected study sites, where numbers identify catchments that generated debris flows now abutting housing. Study sites are superimposed on a Landsat 5 image of metropolitan Phoenix acquired 29 October 2009, courtesy of NASA Earth Observatory Image of the Day 42252. At the time, metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona, hosted a population of more than 4 million in an area of more than 37,000 km2.Urbangrowthhasbroughthousingintocontactwithfiftydifferentmountain masses, twenty-three of which show evidence of debris flows.

mountainous areas with slopes containing ev- sider debris ﬂows coming from steep moun-

Downloaded by [Arizona State University] at 19:52 24 April 2012 idence of debris flows. Metropolitan Phoenix, tain slopes (City of Phoenix 2009). The Mari- Arizona, represents a world-class example copa County Flood Control District (Maricopa of urban sprawl (Helm 2003; Gober 2005), County 2010) exists to identify hazards related where expensive single-family dwellings occur to flooding, but debris flows are a type of mass beneath the steepest mountain slopes with wasting event. Although the U.S. Geological spectacular views (Figure 2). Building homes Survey sometimes mentions desert debris flows next to mountain slopes facilitates the addi- in reports about flooding in southwest urban tional amenity of being able to walk from a contexts (Norman and Wallace 2008), little at- backyard into mountain preserves designed tention has been paid to the potential for debris to protect wild lands and open space (Ewan, flows to do serious damage in expanding urban Ewan, and Burke 2004). centers in the desert Southwest. Hazard assessment carried out prior to home The past perspective, in the Arizona Geo- construction in Arizona in general, and Phoenix logical Survey home owner’s guide, was that zoning ordinance in particular, does not con- “[m]ost of the debris flows that have occurred Debris Flows and Mountain-Front Property 199

Figure 2 Examples of homes in wealthy mountainside neighborhoods built under debris-flow- generating catchments. The upper left image shows a debris-flow fan near Taliesen West, Scotts- dale. The upper right image displays a large home and a future home site under debris-flow channels at Mummy Mountain, Paradise Valley. The lower left image shows homes placed under bedrock channels at Camelback Mountain; the lower middle image from Ludden Mountain illustrates home placement on former debris-flow levees, and the lower right image from Hedgpeth Hills reveal homes placed on a debris-flow fan. These images follow permission guidelines for Google Earth

Downloaded by [Arizona State University] at 19:52 24 April 2012 (http://www.google.com/permissions/geoguidelines.html). (Color ﬁgure available online.)

in Arizona in the past several decades have been Survey then undertook mapping and a haz- restricted to mountain valleys and canyons” ard assessment (Pearthree and Young 2006; (Harris and Pearthree 2002, 16). However, Magirl et al. 2007; Webb et al. 2008; You- many of these mountain canyons have been berg et al. 2008). This event led to a change overcome by housing developments in just of thinking toward the view that desert de- the past half-decade since publication of this bris flows could potentially be an underappre- guide. An extreme July 2006 precipitation event ciated hazard (Pearthree, Youberg, and Cook near Tucson, Arizona (Griffiths et al. 2009), 2007). resulted in debris flows that impacted roads Flooding can be a form of social injustice and some structures. The Arizona Geological in urban Arizona where the poor often live 200 Volume 64, Number 2, May 2012

in the most dangerous settings in floodplains final section analyzes results with an attempt (McPherson and Saarinen 1977; Committee to answer the basic question of whether or not on Public Works and Transportation, Sub- these debris flows pose enough of a hazard to committee on Water Resources 1979; Saarinen warrant future restrictions. et al. 1984; Graf 1988; House and Hirshboeck 1997; Honker 2002). In contrast, the wealthy Study Area citizens in metropolitan Phoenix, who build homes next to desert mountains, are the ones Urbanization in metropolitan Phoenix has en- who might be at risk from debris flows. The veloped what were once isolated mountains question asked here is whether desert debris (Figure 1). Some of these mountains have been flows pose a significant hazard for the urban made into open space preserves (Ewan, Ewan, wealthy living next to steep mountains in and Burke 2004), but many others are privately metropolitan Phoenix. held. In circumstances where private land abuts For debris flows to pose a hazard in mountains, homes have been built at the very metropolitan Phoenix, as well as other expand- base of mountain slopes steeper than 20◦ and in ing desert cities, they must occur frequently some cases steeper than 30◦ (Figure 2). Some enough to put structures and people at risk. To homes have been built directly on fans com- understand occurrence rates of debris flows in posed of debris-flow deposits, and other homes a single mountain range, debris flows originat- have been built where slopes have been under- ing from 127 catchments on the north flank cut through material removal (Figure 3). of the Ma Ha Tuak Range were sampled for Debris flows can start in a number of dif- dating by the varnish microlaminations (VML) ferent ways: originating from large, impulsive and lead-profile chronometric methods; results loads derived from adjacent slopes; from move- yielded an estimate of fifty-six flows in the last ment of water through bedrock fractures; from century (Dorn 2010), leading to the conclusion a fire hose effect of bedrock funneling water to- that debris flows could pose a modern haz- ward colluvium; from wildfires; from mobiliza- ard. The question posed here is whether the tion of material in channels; from slumping of results from a single mountain range reflect channel banks; and from other processes (Innes hazards found on the other ranges that have 1983; Bovis and Dagg 1987; Webb, Pringle, been surrounded by the sprawl of metropolitan and Rink 1989; Coe, Cannon, and Santi 2008). Phoenix. The vast majority of metropolitan Phoenix de- This article explores the hypothesis that bris flows appear to have initiated from satu- rates of debris-flow occurrence above home ration of colluvium located in the lower center sites scattered throughout metropolitan of spoon-shaped catchments (e.g., Figure 4). Phoenix are similar to rates observed for These catchments are often small, most being the intensively sampled north side of the less than 20,000 m2. Because they can be quite Ma Ha Tuak Range (Dorn 2010). Homes steep, often in excess of 30◦,theslopesareun- back up against twenty-three different moun- stable, and there is an abundance of exposed tain areas that have produced debris flows, bedrock. Extensive exposed rock means that Downloaded by [Arizona State University] at 19:52 24 April 2012 so sampling every single boulder levee in rain turns into overland flow that moves quickly metropolitan Phoenix was not feasible. Thus, toward the center of a slope catchment. Intense this attempt at a systematic urban hazard precipitation and this overland flow can satu- assessment of debris flows in metropolitan rate colluvium collected in catchments, turning Phoenix involved random sampling of debris fines into a flow through changes in Coulomb flows in mountain ranges abutting urban friction and the internal pore-fluid pressure ap- development. plied by too much water (Iverson 1997). This article starts by reviewing the nature Once the flow starts, there is enough force of debris flows in metropolitan Phoenix, to scour out channels down to bedrock. Chan- providing background on a topic that has nels are often only a few hundred meters long. skirted the awareness of urban geographers As the flow moves, it entrains debris accumu- and planners. The Methods section explains lated in bedrock channels. Then, at the base of the random sampling strategy and also the bedrock channels, debris flows encounter slope approach used to assess occurrence rates. The colluvium—a mixture of boulders and cobbles. Debris Flows and Mountain-Front Property 201

Figure 3 Location of a debris-flow event in Phoenix that occurred about 1,100 years ago and then again less than 350 years ago (Dorn 2009). Debris-flow deposits are found at the slope break. If these events had occurred after suburban development, several homes would have suffered major damage. (Color figure available online.) Downloaded by [Arizona State University] at 19:52 24 April 2012

Figure 4 Idealized diagram of a debris-ﬂow system in small steep drainages of central Arizona, compared with the study site randomly selected at Shaw Butte, Phoenix. The right image is used following permission guidelines for Google Earth (http://www.google.com/permissions/geoguidelines.html). (Color ﬁgure available online.) 202 Volume 64, Number 2, May 2012

Ta b l e 1 Partial inventory of debris-ﬂow pathways interfacing with urbanism in metropolitan Phoenix

Mountain City Debris-ﬂow catchments Homes

Black Mountain, west side Cave Creek 19 12 Camelback Mountain Phoenix 22 12 Daisy Mountain, south side Anthem 23 8 Gila Range, south side Phoenix 77 11 Hedgpeth Hills Glendale 28 15 Ludden Mountain Glendale 13 8 Ma Ha Tuak Range, north side Phoenix 127 17 McDowell Mountains, Lost Canyon Scottsdale 27 10 McDowell Mountains, McDowell Ranch Scottsdale 21 3 McDowell Mountains, Shea area Scottsdale 32 14 Mummy Mountain Phoenix 51 32 Shaw Butte Phoenix 29 17

Note: Homes refers to number of houses that occur in the pathway of former debris ﬂows.

Debris-flow levees, consisting of boulders, typ- the goal of this study rests in understanding ically deposit where the flow leaves the confines whether a metropolitan-wide hazard exists for of the bedrock channel. These boulder lev- mountain-front development—focusing on the ees form through “complex interplay between question of whether occurrence rates of fifty- the resistance of the first-deposited debris sixdebrisflowsinthelastcenturyin127MaHa and the momentum of subsequently arriving Tuak catchments (Dorn 2010) mirror hazards debris” (Iverson 1997, 260). Debris-flow lev- in the larger metropolitan area. Thus, a strati- ees are important here, because they can be fied random sampling approach was employed sampled to determine when former flows took to remove operator bias. place. The entire Phoenix metropolitan region, The debris-flow channels and levees are most broadly interpreted (Figure 1), was sub- often obvious to a knowledgeable observer divided into cells of one square mile each, us- (e.g., Figures 2 and 4). Bedrock channels form ing township and range sections. Sections were distinctive troughs. Parallel levees form dis- then selected using a random number gen- tinct topographic ridges. There are about fifty erator. The closest debris-flow catchment to mountain areas within metropolitan Phoenix, the center of each of the selected sections was and field observations of debris-flow catch- then identified. Debris-flow catchments that ments that abut housing developments revealed did not impinge on developments were elim- evidence of prior debris flows on twenty-three inated from any further study, as the purpose of these mountain areas. An ongoing survey of this investigation was to understand urban of debris-flow routes reveals that more than hazards. 150 home sites occur on former pathways (Ta- All debris-flow levees were sampled for dat-

Downloaded by [Arizona State University] at 19:52 24 April 2012 ble 1). These homes occur directly underneath ing in the randomly selected catchments that debris-flow chutes, on former levees, and on rest above or near development. A catchment fans built by debris flows (Figure 4)—all attest- often generates multiple debris-flow events, ing to lack of awareness or concern about debris and it is possible to identify and sample mul- flows. tiple events—if pathways of later debris flows differ from earlier events. Sampling every levee Methods ceased at the catchment where the thirtieth debris flow was dated—leading to a total of thirty- Thefirststepinthisinitialassessmentofthepo- four dated debris flows; in all, nine basins were tential hazard of debris flows required removal studied with an average of about four boulder of operator bias in the selection of study sites. levees sampled at each location. The author is quite familiar with a number of The purpose of dating debris-flow events cases where hazards exist (e.g., Figure 3). Al- rests in estimating rates of occurrence. Events though these cases make interesting anecdotes, taking place once every 10,000 years would not Debris Flows and Mountain-Front Property 203

be considered hazardous, but multiple events limeters wide. Even in these tiny depressions, that have taken place in the last hundred years hand lens examination resulted in the rejection would constitute a hazard. To assess frequency, in the field of more than 90 percent of these all identifiable debris-flow levees derived from chips because of growth of lichen and MCF. the randomly selected catchments were sam- Of the samples that were brought to the lab, pled for VML dating (Liu 2003, 2010; Marston only one out of five showed VML patterns that 2003; Liu and Broecker 2007, 2008a, 2008b). were not disturbed by ancient growth of MCF. The idea behind VML dating is that layering Thus, twenty rock chips were collected from patterns of rock varnishes are produced by cli- each debris-flow levee to produce four viable matic changes. Wetter periods produce black samples to replicate VML ages for each of the layers, semiarid periods generate orange layers, thirty-four dated debris-flow levees. and arid periods generate yellow layers. These Where the VML dating method revealed VML patterns have been calibrated at dozens of that a debris flow was younger than about locations in the southwestern United States us- 350 years, a second method was employed to ing independent radiometric age control (Liu refine the age estimate: lead-profile dating. 2003, 2010; Marston 2003; Liu and Broecker Twentieth-century lead and other heavy metal 2007, 2008a, 2008b). pollution is recorded in rock varnish, because Following field procedures as described next, iron minerals in varnish scavenge lead and other collected varnishes were made into cross sec- metals. This scavenging leads to a detectable tions thin enough to identify the layering pat- pollution “spike” in the top micrometer of a tern. Once the patterns were identified, VML rock coating. The lead-profile method (Dorn were then compared with calibrations (Liu 1998; Merrell and Dorn 2009) has been repli- 2003, 2010; Marston 2003; Liu and Broecker cated (Fleisher et al. 1999; Thiagarajan and Lee 2007, 2008a, 2008b). The VML dating method 2004; Hodge et al. 2005; Wayne et al. 2006) and does not give a precise age, like radiocarbon yielded a finding that (1) the varnish coating dating or tree-ring dating. Instead, matching hosts the twentieth-century lead spike, or (2) varnish layers with the established calibrations the varnish started to form before the period of generates age categories, such as younger than lead contamination. Thus, whereas VML dat- 350 years, between 350 and 650 years ago, being can only establish that a varnish is less than tween 900 and 1,100 years ago, between 1,100 350 years old, lead-profile dating establishes and 1,400 years ago, and so forth. Although whether the coating and the underlying levee VML dating can provide only rough ages, this formed in the twentieth century. method is one of the few techniques that can de- Calculation of occurrence rates of debris termine the ages of debris flows in metropolitan flows in each catchment requires knowledge of Phoenix. Organic matter appropriate for radio- the number of events in a given time period. carbon dating has not been found embedded in Unfortunately, it is not possible to know the levees, and cosmogenic nuclide dating suffers true number of debris-flow events in a catch- from boulders accumulating a prior exposure ment; an unknown number of past debris-flow history in the catchment. events could have been obliterated by newer Downloaded by [Arizona State University] at 19:52 24 April 2012 Analyzed samples were collected from the flows. In an extreme example, if the most re- edges of the largest boulders on the debris- cent event was extensive enough, then only flow levees. Sampling on edges is impor- one datable debris-flow deposit would exist in tant, because they receive the most abrasion acatchment,evenifthatcatchmentgenerated during transport—resetting the VML clock af- dozens of debris flows previously. Sedimento- ter a debris flow. The climate of the Sonoran logical analyses might reveal more complexity Desert fosters the growth of lichen and mi- than surficial expressions of debris-flow levees, crocolonial fungi (MCF) in rock-surface de- but excavation work at each site is beyond the pressions that are centimeter sized and larger. scope of this research. Thus, the approach used These organisms dissolve varnish and destroy here is to calculate a minimum occurrence rate VML patterns (Dragovich 1987, 1993; Dorn by dividing the approximate age of the oldest 1998, 2007). Thus, chips were removed from event by the number of known debris flows rock-surface depressions that are just a few mil- from that catchment. Downloaded by [Arizona State University] at 19:52 24 April 2012 204

Ta b l e 2 Randomly selected debris-ﬂow catchments in metropolitan Phoenix and the ages of thirty-four debris ﬂows from nine catchments

Catchment Fan Varnish Lead-proﬁle Minimum Neighborhood coordinates Catchment Vertical gradient microlaminations ages dating for debris occurrence in Mountain and city (degrees) area (m2) relief (m) (degrees) (thousands of years) ﬂows <350 years years

Usery (1) Las Sendas, N33.49449 54,000 149 8 <0.35, 16.5 Twentieth century 8,000 Mesa W111.64324 ∼

McDowell (2) Quail’s Nest, N33.69718 16,000 140 9 <0.35, 2.8, 8.1, 17.8–24 Older than 6,000 Phoenix W111.85439 twentieth century ∼ Gavilan Peak (3) New River N 33.90623 17,400 216 4 <0.35, 2.8, 8.1, 16.5 Twentieth century 4,100 W112.12503 ∼ McDowell (4) Saddleview, N33.57412 2,150 140 5 0.35–0.65, 8.1, 16.5, 24 Older than 6,000 Scottsdale W111.77495 twentieth century ∼ Ludden (5) Glendale N 33.71981 19,000 226 4 <0.35, 0.35–0.65, 2.8, Twentieth centur y 4,800 W112.18985 8.1, 24 ∼ Shaw Butte (6) Moon Valley, N33.59789 22,000 177 5 0.35–0.65, 8.1. 16.5, 24 N/A 6,000 Phoenix W112.09188 ∼ Mummy (7) Paradise Valley N 33.54914 14,500 165 6 <0.35, 0.35–0.65, 8.1 Older than 2,700 W111.95201 twentieth century ∼ McDowell (8) Taliesen West, N33.61133 11,500 183 7 <0.35, 8.1, 24 Older than 8,000 Scottsdale W111.83254 twentieth century ∼ Gila (9) Ahwatukee, N33.30242 16,500 146 7 <0.35, <0.35, 0.9–1.1, Twentieth centur y 1,600 Phoenix W112.12086 2.8, 8.1 ∼

Note: The order presented in the table reﬂects the order of the random selection process and numbers match sites in Figure 1. Debris Flows and Mountain-Front Property 205

Frequency of Debris Flows: Is There a mountains in metropolitan Phoenix and per- Hazard? haps in southwestern desert cities elsewhere. This analysis also suggests that a random sam- Minimum occurrence rates of thousands of pling of catchments appears to mirror occur- years for the nine randomly selected catch- rence rates for a mountain range where every ments (Table 2) could be interpreted to sug- catchment was studied—a finding that could be gest that debris flows pose no serious hazard important in future studies on debris-flow haz- to homeowners underneath these source ar- ards in desert regions. eas. Using these minimum occurrence rates A natural question asked by many at this and a probability scale that ranks debris flows point is whether any observations exist for his- as very high, high, moderate, or low (Hungr toric debris flows in metropolitan Phoenix. The 1997), the studied catchments would have a low only published observation derives from Fuller probability of occurring in a homeowner’s life- (2010, 6), who reported that Troy Pew´ e’s´ field time. This analysis, however, is flawed. Dozens notes left with the Arizona Geological Survey of debris flows could have occurred over the documented “damaging debris flows” in the past 500 years, and these minimum occurrence Phoenix area during the 1970s in steep water- rates would not change so long as the youngest sheds. An 18–22 January 2010 precipitation event erased evidence of prior flows. A much event generated 70 mm of precipitation in more meaningful finding is that four of the the Ma Ha Tuak∼ Range of Phoenix, leading nine study sites experienced debris flows in to at least three debris flows traveling less than the period of lead pollution during the twen- 140 m each. The author also found evidence tieth century, and another four catchments of six debris flows generated in the McDowell generated debris flows in the last 350 years Mountains from 100 mm of precipitation (Table 2). during this storm;∼ these debris flows all The hypothesis explored here is that rates traveled less than 200 m. Approximately 158 of debris-flow occurrence above randomly mm of precipitation led to a 500 m debris flow sampled home sites scattered throughout (Figure 5) in northern metropolitan Phoenix metropolitan Phoenix are similar to rates ob- from the 18–22 January storm—with the most served for the intensively sampled north side intense rate of 104 mm in twenty-four hours. of the Ma Ha Tuak Range (Dorn 2010). The None of these debris flows were covered in the 127 catchments in the Ma Ha Tuak Range, media, despite scars being visible from home Phoenix, generated approximately 140 debris sites (Figure 5) indicating that a general paucity flows in the last 350 years, with an estimated of historic records does not provide insight fifty-sixoftheseinthelastcentury(Dorn2010). into debris flows as a hazard in metropolitan From the perspective of the entire north side Phoenix and perhaps other southwestern cities. of this range, on average, each catchment gen- There are three major complicating factors erated a debris flow in the last 350 years. Simi- in deciding whether to trust in the minimum larly, from the perspective of randomly selected recurrence intervals (Table 2) or be concerned catchments examined here, on average, each about occurrence rates of debris flows in Downloaded by [Arizona State University] at 19:52 24 April 2012 catchment generated about one debris flow in the last hundred years: poor preservation the last 350 years. Taken as a whole, fifty- of debris-flow events, climate change, and six twentieth-century flows derived from 127 uncertainties in rates of producing new debris. catchments in the Ma Ha Tuak Range, and four The first complicating factors would elevate twentieth-century flows derived from nine ran- the real hazard; the second would reduce the domly selected catchments across metropolitan real hazard; and the third factor throws ad- Phoenix generate a similar finding: about 40 ditional uncertainty into the decision-making percent of sampled catchments produced a de- process. bris flow this past century. The first major complication is that there are This analysis suggests that a modern haz- an unknown number of debris-flow events that ard could exist for any home placed underneath were not preserved. For example, the Mummy debris-flow-producing catchments in the desert Mountain study site (Figure 4) preserved 206 Volume 64, Number 2, May 2012

Figure 5 Five hundred–meter long debris flow that occurred between 18 and 22 January 2010 on the northern fringe of metropolitan Phoenix. Fortunately, the debris flow took place in a county park sufficiently far from Cave Creek to avoid any damage. (Color figure available online.)

three distinct debris-flow ages (Table 2). If Marston 2003; Liu and Broecker 2007, 2008a, a hundred additional debris-flow events had 2008b). Three quarters of the VML ages mea- taken place in the last 8,100 years, but the sured here place debris-flow events during pe- evidence was obliterated by the two youngest riods wetter than the current climatic regime. events (and development), then the recurrence Thus, the climatic information embedded in interval in this hypothetical scenario would the dating would suggest that periods wetter be within a person’s lifetime. Although such than the present-day climate foster more de- ascenarioisunlikely,giventhelikelihood bris flows. However, the same level of wetness

Downloaded by [Arizona State University] at 19:52 24 April 2012 of a slow rate of debris production from needed to produce a distinct VML layer might weathering in the catchment, there is no way not necessarily relate to the frequency of pre- to know the accurate occurrence rate. The cipitation sufficiently intense to trigger debris reason is that debris flows tend to deposit in flows. the same narrow area underneath these slope The third major complicating factor would catchments. Future studies of the sedimentary be uncertainty in how fast the supply of debris architecture of buried deposits might record in slope catchments rebuilds to generate fu- events for which there is no surface evidence. ture debris flows. Unlike wetter environments The second major complicating factor would where debris supply rates are rapid (Bovis and be climate change. Wetter periods have oc- Jakob 1999), deserts have slower rates of rock curred in the past. These wetter periods leave weathering. Unfortunately, no data exist in the the signature of layers within rock varnish, and literature on how long it takes to “reload” the it is these layers that allow the varnish to be debris source areas in the small catchments that dated with the VML method (Liu 2003, 2010; exist on metropolitan Phoenix mountain slopes. Debris Flows and Mountain-Front Property 207

Figure 6 In 2007 and 2008 in an Ahwatukee neighborhood in Phoenix, two new homes have been placed directly on a debris-flow depositional area. Debris flows less than 350 years old traveled to the property boundaries, and probably further, but construction eliminated the evidence. The right view is ground level, where the X indicates that the back of the house pad is a vertical cut without any barrier to inhibit sediment movement into the backyard or house. The left view an aerial photograph from 2006, used with permission by Maricopa County. The “rest of the catchment” area did not generate any distinctive debris flows. (Color figure available online.)

Added to these complicating factors is a Conclusion lack of consistency in how to conduct a debris flow hazard analysis. Although some A conservative conclusion is that the hazard countries such as Austria have specific guide- posed by debris flows in metropolitan Phoenix lines on how to map and quantify debris- is serious enough to justify a formal debris-flow flow hazards (Fiebiger 1997), in “North Amer- hazard analysis (Jakob 2005), a task that is be- ica, debris-flow recognition, hazard assessment, yond the scope of this project. This conclusion and mitigation design are, in comparison, still is justified by four out of nine randomly se- in their infancy” (Jakob and Hungr 2005, lected study sites having experienced a debris- 215). There is agreement, however, on the six flow event during the twentieth century—a general steps in analyzing debris-flow hazards figure that is similar to occurrence rates in a (Jakob 2005), where this study has started the study of 127 catchments in the Ma Ha Tuak Downloaded by [Arizona State University] at 19:52 24 April 2012 first two steps of (1) recognizing that debris- Range, Phoenix (Dorn 2010). This argues for flow hazards exist in an area; and (2) starting caution in future development up against desert the process of estimating the recurrence and mountains in the southwestern United States. hence probability of a future debris flow. The A case study exemplified in Figure 6 is another four steps remain to be completed: (3) other way of visualizing this conclusion for estimating debris-flow magnitude and inten- urban geographers, planners, developers, and sity; (4) calculating frequency–magnitude rela- residents. The aerial photograph in Figure 6 tionships; (5) understanding design issues re- shows the house pads of two homes in Phoenix lated to magnitude and intensity issues; and that were constructed in 2007 and 2008. The (6) presenting a mapping of these quantified slope feature behind the homes identified in relationships. Thus, it would be inappropri- the ground photograph in Figure 6 offers no ate for this pilot research to declare with cer- protection from flowing debris. The two most tainty that a serious hazard does or does not recent debris-flow events from the catchment exist. above these homes occurred sometime in the 208 Volume 64, Number 2, May 2012

twentieth century and reached property bound- Committee on Public Works and Transportation. aries. There are also debris-flow deposits pre- Subcommittee on Water Resources, U.S.C. 1979. served that are approximately 1,100, 2,800, and Flooding problems, State of Arizona: Hearings be- 8,100 calendar years old. Do debris flows pose fore the Subcommittee on Water Resources of the a danger to these homes? My personal opin- Committee on Public Works and Transportation, House of Representatives, Ninety-sixth Congress, ion is yes, hinging on the assumption that the first session, June 1 and 2, 1979, at Phoenix, two twentieth-century flows reflect the current Ariz, No. 96–13. Committee on Public Works and hazard. Transportation, Washington, DC. Given data presented in this pilot study, Cooke, R. U. 1984. Geomorphological hazards in Los should policymakers consider halting develop- Angeles.London:AllenandUnwin. ment that abuts steep mountain catchments? Decaulne, A. 2002. Coulees´ de debris´ et risques na- Again, my personal opinion is that the prudent turels en Islande du Nord-Ouest [Debris flows decision would be yes, using the assumption and natural hazards in northwestern Iceland]. that conditions generating twentieth-century Géomorphologie: Relief, Processus, Environnement flows reflect the current hazard. The minimum 8:151–63. Dorn, R. I. 1998. Rock coatings.Amsterdam:Elsevier. occurrence rate is around 1,600 years for the ———. 2007. Rock varnish. In Geochemical sediments catchment in Figure 6. Had the two most recent and landscapes, ed. D. J. Nash and S. J. McLaren, debris flows taken place after the homes were 246–97. London: Blackwell. built, however, there would have been property ———. I. 2009. Rock varnish and its use to study damage and perhaps injury. climatic change in geomorphic settings. In Geo- There are no zoning regulations in Phoenix morphology of desert environments, ed. A. J. Parsons regarding debris flows. There are no guidelines and A. Abrahams, 657–73. Amsterdam: Springer. on how to calculate risk from either the Ari- ———. 2010. Debris flows from small catchments zona Geological Survey or the U.S. Geological of the Ma Ha Tuak Range, metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona. Geomorphology 120:339–52. Survey. I believe that this issue is significant Dragovich, D. 1987. Weathering of desert varnish enough to warrant further study, ideally the by lichens. In Readings in Australian geography, ed. bringing together of debris-flow experts and A. Conacher, 407–12. Perth, Australia: 21st IAG climatologists to aid planners and others in Conference. studying the level of risk in greater detail to ———. 1993. Distribution and chemical compo- establish appropriate policies—in metropolitan sition of microcolonial fungi and rock coatings Phoenix and in other southwestern U.S. desert from arid Australia. Physical Geography 14:323– cities. ! 41. Ewan, J., R. F. Ewan, and J. Burke. 2004. Build- ing ecology into the planning continuum: Case Literature Cited study of desert land preservation in Phoenix, Ari- zona (USA). Landscape and Urban Planning 68:53– Bovis, M. J., and B. R. Dagg. 1987. Mechanisms of 75. debris supply to steep channels along Howe Sound, Federal Emergency Management Agency. 2009. Are southwest British Columbia. International Associa- you ready? Landslides and debris flow (mudslide). tion of Hydrological Sciences 165:191–200. http://www.fema.gov/areyouready/landslide.shtm Downloaded by [Arizona State University] at 19:52 24 April 2012 Bovis, M. J., and M. Jakob. 1999. The role of debris (last accessed 1 August 2010). supply conditions in predicting debris flow activ- Fiebiger, G. 1997. Hazard mapping in Austria. Jour- ity. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 24:1039– nal of Torrent, Avalanche, Landslide and Rockfall En- 54. gineering 61:121–33. City of Phoenix. 2009. Zoning ordinance of the City Fleisher, M., T. Liu, W. Broecker, and W. Moore. of Phoenix, Arizona. Codified through Ordinance 1999. A clue regarding the origin of rock varnish. No. G-5391, adopted June 17, 2009, effective Au- Geophysical Research Letters 26 (1): 103–06. gust 1, 2009. Supplement No. 16, Update 1. http:// Fuller, J. E. 2010. Methods for evaluating alluvial fan www.municode.com/Resources/gateway.asp?pid flood hazards from debris flows in Maricopa County, = 13534&sid 3(lastaccessed8September2009). Arizona.Contract#FCD2008C007.Phoenix,AZ: = Coe, J. A., S. H. Cannon, and P. M. Santi. 2008. Flood Control District of Maricopa County. Introduction to the special issue on debris flows Glassey, P., D. Barrell, J. Forsyth, and R. Macleod. initiated by runoff, erosion, and sediment entrain- 2002. The geology of Dunedin, New Zealand, and ment in western North America. Geomorphology the management of geological hazards. Quaternary 96:247–49. International 103:23–40. Debris Flows and Mountain-Front Property 209

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