Annual Report 2020 Transportation Research Group

ANNUAL REPORT 2020 TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH GROUP

Prof Tom Cherrett, Head, Transportation Research Group, Department of Civil, Maritime and Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Southampton, Boldrewood Innovation Campus, Southampton, SO16 7QF. Tel: 023 8059 2192; e-mail: [email protected]; web: www.trg.soton.ac.uk

CONTENTS

1. OVERVIEW...... 3

2. EXTERNAL ACTIVITIES ...... 6

3. RESEARCH ...... 8

3.1 Traffic Operations and Safety Management ...... 8

3.2 Energy & Environment ...... 11

3.3 Freight & Logistics ...... 13

3.4 Future Technologies ...... 17

3.5 Rail ...... 21

3.6 Transport and Infrastructure Policy ...... 29

3.7 Human Factors ...... 35

4. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH GROUP PUBLICATIONS...... 42

1. OVERVIEW  Ben Waterson, Associate Professor, specialising in modelling and The Transportation Research Group simulation (TRG) was established at the University  Simon Blainey, Associate Professor, of Southampton in 1967 and is part of the specialising in rail transport and Faculty of Engineering and Physical modelling Sciences.  Ioannis Kaparias, Lecturer in transportation engineering TRG is located at the University’s  Katie Plant, Lecturer in human factors Boldrewood Innovation Campus where engineering the £46 million National Infrastructure  Shahram Heydari, Lecturer in Laboratory (NIL) was completed in May Transportation, specialising in safety. 2019 (see below). Research Staff in TRG during 2020 Professor Tom Cherrett became Head of included Dr John Armstrong, James the Group in August 2020. Brown, Adrian Hickford, Fraser McLeod, Dr James Pritchard, Dr Kirsten Revell, Dr Aaron Roberts, Dr Alan Wong, Dr Vicky Banks, Dr Rich McIlroy, Dr Matt Grote, Dr Marcus Young and Leonie Webster. During the year we welcomed Rachael Wynne, Katie Parnell, Matthew Webster, and Jed Clark and said farewell to Leonie Webster, Dr Aaron Roberts, James Brown, Professor Neville Stanton and Dr Kirsten Revell.

Their research activities are summarised in later paragraphs. Technical Staff supporting TRG included Karen Ghali, National Infrastructure Laboratory at Daniel Fay, Kiome Pope and Joy Boldrewood Richardson. During the year, we This report covers the research activities welcomed Sophie Hart and said farewell within TRG during the calendar year to Karen Ghali. 2020. Melanie Hallford continued supporting the TRG academic staff members during Group in her role as Senior 2020 were: Administrator for the Department.

 John Preston, Professor of Rail Mike McDonald continues as Emeritus Transport Professor in Transportation Engineering and Nick Hounsell and Neville Stanton as  Neville Stanton, Professor of Human Visiting Professors. We have a number Factors in Transport of other Visiting Professors and Research  Tom Cherrett, Professor of Logistics Fellows who contribute significantly to the and Transport Management Group. These include Professor Jianping Wu, Tsinghua University; Professor

Pengjun Zheng (Dean of the Faculty of TRG facilities include: Maritime and Transportation Engineering)  SUDS (Southampton University at Ningbo University in China; Professor Driving Simulator), located in Building Alan Stevens (formerly of TRL); 176 at Boldrewood and equipped with Professor Mike Browne (Professor of a Land Rover Discovery (see below). Industrial and Financial Management & Logistics), University of Gothenburg; Professor Johan Woxenius (Professor of Industrial and Financial Management & Logistics), University of Gothenburg; Professor David Jeffery; Dr John Walker; Dr John Schoon, Dr Shahjahan Miah, Professor Paul Salmon, Iain MacGregor, Dr Antonio Velazquez Abad, Dr Bani Anvari Dr Birendra Shrestha, Stephan Zieger, Dr Alejandro Ortega-Hortelano, Dr The Southampton University Driving Simulator Md. Shamsul Hoque, Dr Hans Eriksson, (Mark 2) Cdr Justin Saward, Dr Leonie Webster, Christopher Parnell, Dr Aaron Roberts, Dr  The TRG Instrumented Vehicle (IV3). Jisun Kim, and Oliver Davey. Following a successful bid to the University’s ‘Delivering Innovation to We also had over 30 students attached to the Next Generation (RESOUNDING) the Group undertaking PhD or EngD Fund’ in 2019, a plug-in hybrid Toyota (Engineering Doctorate) research in Prius was procured and is currently transport. In 2020, PhD degrees were being fitted with a variety of sensors awarded to Jonny Evans, Farah Alkhalisi that will support a range of basic and and Craig Rafter. applied on-road research.

Postgraduate teaching continues to be an integral part of TRG activities, particularly the MSc in Transportation Planning and Engineering. We continue to offer three pathways through the course, offering students a choice of specialising in Infrastructure, Behaviour or Operations on either a full time or part time basis, and 19 new students enrolled in September 2020 – with 9 starting in January 2021.

Overall, we have maintained a healthy portfolio of research in 2020. By the end TRG Instrumented Vehicle (IV3) of the year, our research grants and The IV3 and an instrumented bicycle contracts had a total value of over £10 (iBike) for on-road trials, are hosted in the million, with over £4 million of this from garage facility in Building 185 at EPSRC. Boldrewood.

Some minor engagement activities have moved on-line during the course of 2020, although it is hoped that they may resume in a ‘new normal’ form during the latter part of 2021.

The TRG Instrumented Bike

 Our transport data analysis facility, located in Building 176, Boldrewood.

 ComTET – A command teamwork experimental test bed for submarine control rooms, located in Building 21, Highfield.

The ComTET Submarine Control Room Simulator

Outreach

Unfortunately public engagement and outreach activities were severely curtailed during 2020 due to the Covid-19 virus, including the cancellation of a major conference on ‘Creating the Child-friendly City’ featuring Mikael Colville-Andersen, the author, urban designer and founder of Copenhagenize, and Sir Stephen Holgate, the MRC Clinical Professor of Immunopharmacology who gave evidence at the inquest into the death of Ella Kissi- Debrah, the London school-girl who died partly due to air pollution.

2. EXTERNAL ACTIVITIES Scientific Committee of the World Conference of Transport Research The following sections summarise the Society. range of external activities undertaken by TRG Academic Staff members in 2020: Neville Stanton:  Associate Editor, IEEE Transaction on Tom Cherrett: Human-Machine Systems. 1. Member of the U.S. Transportation  Member, Editorial Board, Theoretical Research Board’s, Standing Issues in Ergonomics Science. Committee on Urban Freight  Member, Editorial Board, Safety Transportation (AT025). Science. 2. Member of the Editorial Board,  Book series editor of “Transportation Proceedings of the ICE: Transport Human Factors” with CRC Press. Journal.  Chair of the Honourable Company of 3. Member of the Logistics Research Air Pilots and the Air Pilots Trust Network (LRN) committee. Annual Aviation Safety prize. 4. Member of IET’s (The Institution of  Chartered Engineer with the IET Engineering and Technology)  Visiting Professor at the University of Transport Policy Panel. the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, 5. External Examiner; UG Logistics and Australia Operations Management courses at  Visiting Professor at Tsinghua Cardiff University (2017-2021). University, Beijing, China

John Preston: Simon Blainey:  Member of the EPSRC Peer Review  Member of the Governance Board for College. the Data Analytics Facility for National  External examiner for Masters level Infrastructure (DAFNI.) courses at Cardiff and Leeds  Member of the EPSRC Associate Universities. Peer Review College.  Chaired the 15th World Conference on  Senior External Examiner for MSc, Transport Research Rail Special BSc, DipHE and CertHE courses in Interest Group sessions at Mumbai 26- Railway Operations Management, 31 May. Glasgow Caledonian University.  Committee Member of the International  Member of the Editorial Board for the Association of Rail Operations Journal of Transport Geography Research (IAROR) and the  Member of Steering Group for International Conference on development of Transport for the Competition and Ownership in Land South East’s Future Mobility Strategy Passenger Transport. and Action Plan  Member of the Future Traffic  Guest Lecturer at Department of Regulation Optimisation (FuTRO) Geography, Ghent University Project Control Board and the Vehicle/Train Control and Ioannis Kaparias: Communications Systems Interface  Honorary Lecturer at the Committee. Department of Civil and  Editorial Board Member: Journal of Environmental Engineering of Transport Policy and member of the Imperial College London.

 Independent expert for the European Commission on research and innovation activities, acting as an evaluator of proposals submitted to the Horizon 2020 programme  Member of the US Transportation Research Board’s Committee on “Human Factors of Infrastructure Design and Operations” (ACH40) (formerly “User Information Systems” (AND20))  Member of the US Transportation Research Board’s Committee on “Pedestrians” (ACH10)  Deputy Editor-in-Chief of the IET Intelligent Transport Systems journal (Institution of Engineering and Technology)  Member of the Scientific Committee of the 9th Symposium of the European Association for Research in Transportation (hEART 2020), 3-4 February 2021, Lyon, France (virtual)

Katie Plant:  Chartered Member of the Chartered Institute of Ergonomics and Human Factors

Shahram Heydari:  Member of the editorial board of Analytical Methods in Accident Research.  Collaborative member of the Interuniversity Research Centre on Enterprise Networks, Logistics and Transportation (CIRRELT)  Member of the Network of Excellence in Air Quality at Imperial College London

3. RESEARCH 2021) M. Webster, J. Richardson, Dr R. McIlroy. Contract Holder: Dr K.L. Plant TRG research fits within a view of transport as a socio-technical system Cyclists are disproportionately capable of delivering sustainable represented in accident statistics; for outcomes, but also with the potential for every 26 car drivers killed or seriously unsustainable outcomes if the injured per billion vehicle miles, 1,011 interactions between transport technology pedal cyclists are killed or seriously and society are not adequately injured. Typical cycling accidents include addressed. We are particularly interested the motorist emerging into, or turning in how society shapes, and is shaped by, across, the path of the cyclist and cyclists’ technological developments in transport. riding off the pavement into the path of a This requires an interdisciplinary vehicle or making right turns into the path approach involving the engineering and of a vehicle. These dangerous physical sciences, along with the social interactions can be understood from the sciences and humanities. In particular, perspective of incompatible situation we bring together traffic engineering, awareness therefore different road users transport economics and human factors interpreting the same road situation with TRG’s work being multi-modal, differently. covering both passenger and freight transport. The research will use a Cross-Modal training approach, where different road A focus of our research remains on users receive training on how another Intelligent Transport Systems, with a road user interprets the road situation and strong portfolio of studies on Human behaves in different situations. Car Factors in Transport. We also undertake drivers will be trained on how a cyclist research on a number of other interprets the road situation and how interrelated themes, including energy and might they behave, i.e. what it is like to be environment, freight and logistics, future a cyclist and cyclists will be trained on technologies, rail and transport how a driver interprets the road situations economics and policy. and how they might behave, i.e. what it is like to be a driver. The remainder of this report summarises TRG research activities ongoing in 2020 The project has been split into two within different topic areas. Research elements a theoretical and practical titles listed in blue represent contract course. The theoretical side aims to (funded) research, whilst those in green enhance your competency and teaches are studies by Postgraduate Research drivers and cyclists theory-based content students (PhD, iPhD or EngD). about the opposite road user group from three components; knowledge (what we know about something), skills (our 3.1 Traffic Operations and Safety physical abilities to perform a task) and Management attitudes (the beliefs we hold). The practical course aims to achieve similar

goals to the theoretical course but CRoss-modal Intervention To Improve instead, the driver and cyclists are given Cyclist Awareness Levels (CRITICAL) first-hand experience of the opposite road (Road Safety Trust October 2019 – April user group. So, drivers will be taught how

to be a cyclist by a fully qualified and Technology), a low-income country instructor supplied by our project partner (Kenya, via Strathmore University), a CyclingUK and the cyclists will be placed lower-middle income country (Vietnam, in the driving simulator room (SUDS) and via National University of Civil given the opportunity to drive a range of Engineering), and an upper-middle scenarios involving common driving income country (China, via Tsinghua interactions. University). Following a successful bid for a 12-month extension to the project, two By the end of the project, two cross- new project partners have also been modal training programmes will have included: Ecuador, via the Universidad de been developed and longitudinally las Americas in Quito; and Brazil, via the evaluated to understand the resilience of Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de the training interventions. After the Janeiro. project, it is intended that these programs will be available to relevant stakeholders During the first three years of the project, to roll out as a legacy of the project. four research streams were undertaken: (1) a large cross-cultural comparison STARS: Socio Technical Approach to survey to explore traffic risk perceptions, Road Safety. NIHR Global Research attitudes to road safety, and pedestrian Group on Global Road Safety (National behaviour; (2) Accimaps as a systems- Institute for Health Research, August based method for road traffic collision 2017 to July 2020) Dr R.C. analysis, using the findings to develop McIlroy. Contract Holders: Prof N.A. systems-based safety recommendations; Stanton, Dr K.L. Plant, Prof J.M. Preston, (3) a naturalistic ‘think aloud’ study with Prof. C. Deakin (Medicine), Prof P. country-specific road users (e.g., moped Roderick (Medicine). riders in Vietnam, cyclists in the UK) to Extended to July 2021. Contract enhance our understanding of road-user Holders: Prof N.A. Stanton, Dr K.L. Plant, decision-making processes fro; and (4) Dr R.C. McIlroy the installation and use of driving simulators in the LMIC partner institutions Low- and Middle-Income Countries to test the effects of proposed (LMICs) see more than twice as many interventions on driving behaviour. road traffic fatalities (per head of Additionally, during year three, whole- population) compared to high-income system analyses using the STAMP countries. Whilst these countries methodology were undertaken. The represent 82% of the global population, extension period, year four, has seen they are home to only 54% of the world’s driving simulation work continue, and is registered motor vehicles. The overall also seeing the development of systems- goal of our Global Health Research based collision report forms, drawing on Group (GHRG) is to reduce the number systems analyses undertaken in years and severity of road accidents in LMICs one to three. Questionnaire work through our underpinning philosophy of undertaken in the original partner “local solutions for local problems”. countries is being extended during year four through dissemination in Brazil and The original GHRG had the University of Ecuador. Southampton collaborating with a least developed country (Bangladesh, via Bangladesh University of Engineering

Optimizing Social Utility for Demand penetration of ridesharing and Responsive Shared Transport (DRST) encourage ridership. (Ph.D. Studentship from September  Ridesharing impact on social 2019), Fawzan Alfawzan. Supervisors: Dr welfare: how fares might be B.J. Waterson, Dr S. Blainey structured to distribute additional social benefits to riders, other Shared mobility services should result in groups, or more broadly. more carpooling, ride splitting, public transit, and other modes and services Developing a Traffic Flow Controlling which do not increase VMT, shared Method using Autonomous Vehicles to mobility would contribute to enhancing Dissipate Congestion on Motorways the performance of the transit system. (PhD Studentship from September 2019), Even though there are social and Hassan Abu Saq. Supervisors: Dr I. environmental benefits to such a shared Kaparias, Dr B.J. Waterson transit system, such as congestion mitigation or emission reduction, user’s Reducing congestion is a key challenge self-interest is the primary motive for for any road transport system operator. participate in ridesharing. Indeed, it is Traffic congestion is estimated to cost the unclear whether the new forms of UK around £7.9 billion per year (with Demand Responsive Shared drivers spending an average of 178 hours Transport (DRST) systems can derive the per person per year in traffic congestion). same benefits to the transportation Congestion also leads to more system. This project will investigate the acceleration and deceleration of the potential for cost-sharing strategy induces vehicles, which results in greater fuel sustainable ridesharing services that consumption and higher pollutant improve mobility, reduce VMT, and emissions. As it is now widely recognised enhance social welfare. that building new roads can only offer short-term relief to the problem of Cost-sharing rules for successfully congestion, efforts have more recently organizing ridesharing for one O-D pair shifted to the solutions in the domain of may not be reliable and effective for large technology. Current techniques for scale adaptation. Thus, when considering controlling the traffic flow and for reducing dynamic ridesharing apps in general and dissipating congestion include networks, different cost-sharing strategies predominantly infrastructure-based should be presented for several shared systems, such as Variable Speed Limits services. Given our current level of and Lane Advisory Information. However, understanding of ridesharing, we can these techniques have limitations, in point to some considerable critical particular as concerns static control and concerns for ridesharing services which lack of adequate enforcement, which include: often reduce their effectiveness. This project attempts to overcome these  The impacts of different limitations by investigating whether subsidy/incentive strategies on alternative dynamic control approaches travellers’ mode choices and the using autonomous vehicles (driverless design of appropriate subsidy cars) could be more effective. strategies.  Ridesharing efficiency index and other mechanisms that assess the

Development of Travel Time Sponsor: Dr Andrew Hamilton (Siemens). Estimation Models: Consideration of Awarded 2020 Link Geometry for Korean Motorways (funded by the Korean Government, PhD Incidents are events that disrupt the Studentship from September 2016), normal flow of traffic, such as vehicle Sungbae Yoon. Supervisors: Prof J.M. impacts, breakdowns, illegal Preston, Dr I. Kaparias. parking/unloading and emergency roadworks. They cause significant costs Link cost functions have been used to to road network users in the form of estimate travel time depending on the delay, vehicular damage, air pollution and assigned traffic flow. Current models personal injury. include free-flow travel time (FFTT) and road capacity in order to cover various Automatic Incident Detection algorithms link characteristics. However, both values (AIDAs) have been developed to analyse have uncertainties in two aspects: traffic data and inform users of potential measurement and spatial transferability. incidents on the road network. However, many AIDAs fail to differentiate between The aim of this study is, therefore, to an incident, and recurring congestion develop feasible travel time estimation (e.g. from major events or rush hour). models that can replace existing This project seeks to improve AIDAs by approaches with FFTT and road capacity. understanding the context surrounding Three statistical methods for modelling the traffic data. were introduced in this study: ordinary least squares (OLS) linear estimation, A machine learning algorithm has been generalised least squares (GLS) linear created that can learn the patterns estimation and nonlinear least squares between the traffic state and context by (NLS) estimation. The case study of 72 analysing historical data. An AIDA with Korean motorway sections was this insight can then raise alerts to implemented based on the empirical Transport Operators more quickly and traffic data from ITS and geometric data with less false alerts, ultimately aiding in from design drawings. mitigating the consequences of incidents on the road network. This study concludes that new types of travel time estimation models with geometric features (without FFTT and 3.2 Energy & Environment road capacity) can replace current models. The application to transport Centre for Sustainable Travel Choices appraisal shows that the newly developed (DfT Access Fund, through SCC in model has a significant impact on the conjunction with British Cycling, Cycling feasibility of transport projects by UK, Hampshire County Council and changing the total benefit compared to Sustrans, from April 2017 to March 2020, current Korean models. with bid extension to March 2021). Dr A. Wong, A. Hickford, K. Ghali; Contract Improving Automatic Incident Holder: Prof J.M. Preston. Detection Algorithms (ESPRC and Siemens, PhD Studentship, from July The Centre (CSTC) is a partnership that 2016). Jonny Evans. Supervisors: Dr B.J. works with the City Council and the wider Waterson, Prof T.J. Cherrett, Industrial region to promote local sustainable travel,

walking and cycling, whilst suppressing an enhanced multi-modal interchange at private car use. This project continues on Southampton Central Station. from the collaborative work originated The CSTC will also be leading the through the Local Sustainable Transport monitoring and evaluation of projects Fund, with TRG leading on the monitoring associated with the Future Transport and evaluation of physical interventions Zone in the wider Solent Transport and travel behaviour change, as well as Region, which started towards the latter advising and supporting Southampton half of 2020, including Mobility-as-a- City, Eastleigh Borough and Hampshire Service (MaaS) trials, Growing ‘Solent County Councils in developing an active Go’, e-Scooter trials, and bike (and e- travel culture that enriches lives, provides bike) share schemes. realistic travel choices, and tackling the pressing air quality problem in the region. Significant progress has been made on encouraging modal shift along the major ‘cycle-to-work’ corridors as promoted through the DfT Access Fund, to complement the now established city-wide cycling freeways and quietways in the Southampton Cycle Network (SCN), and in preparations for ‘Active Travel Zones’ to be established in St. Denys (which includes Portswood) and in the Polygon (around Bedford Place), with more areas planned from 2021: The CSTC Monitoring/Evaluation area in https://transport.southampton.gov.uk/activ Southampton, showing real-time data points (courtesy of SCC/Drakewell, 2021) etravelfund. Support has also been given to Decarbonising Transport through Southampton City Council during the year Electrification (DTE) (EPSRC Network+ on developing their Green Transport Grant. September 2019 – August 2022). Recovery Plan, following the outbreak of Contract Holder: Prof. J.M. Preston. Covid-19 and the effects this had on people’s travel movements and This network is led by Prof L. Cipcigan of subsequent mode shifts. Recent focus Cardiff University and also includes has also moved towards projects Birmingham, Bristol and Cranfield associated with the DfT’s Transforming Universities. The DTE Network+ brings Cities Fund in ‘Connecting Southampton’, together academia, industry and the which includes: (1) the development of public sector to address the challenges ‘rapid bus corridors’ linking Southampton limiting the current implementation of an with Hythe and Totton to the West, electrified, integrated transport system Bishopstoke and Eastleigh to the North, across the automotive, aerospace, rail and Woolston, Thornhill and Bursledon to and maritime sectors. The DTE Network+ the East; (2) a new ‘Park and Ride’ will explore drivers for change within the scheme close to the M271 in the West, transport system including technological which will provide services to innovation, individual mobility needs and Southampton General Hospital and (at economic requirements for change, weekends) into the City Centre; and (3) alongside environmental and social concerns for sustainability and consider

the role, social acceptance and impact of document and databases of researchers policies and regulations to result in and research projects. For more details emissions reduction. It will adopt and see: integrated whole system approach that https://www.southampton.ac.uk/re4em will address short, medium and long-term time-frame challenges, using a multi- layered approach that considers vehicles 3.3 Freight & Logistics and technology, charging infrastructure, the supply of electricity and smart mobility. An inception meeting was held in Southampton Delivery and Servicing early 2020 and some seed-corn funded Plans (Southampton City Council, from research projects have been initiated. For September 2020 to March 2021). Dr M. more details see: https://dte.network/ Grote. Contract Holder: Prof T.J. Cherrett.

Centre for Re-Engineering for Electric The aim of the Southampton Delivery and Mobility (RE4EM) (Faculty of Servicing Plans (DSPs) project is to Engineering and Physical Sciences, conduct DSPs on organisations located in January 2020 to December 2021) and/or around Southampton for Contract Holder: Prof. J.M. Preston with Southampton City Council (SCC) via a Prof. A. Cruden (Energy Technology sub-contract arrangement with the Group) and Prof L. Wang (nCATS – Transport Research Laboratory (TRL). A National Centre for Advanced Tribology DSP is a flexible plan to minimise the at Southampton). Intern: Sharifah Syed costs, impacts and number of deliveries Ihsan. and servicing visits to an organisation, and is developed through an audit of the With the climate emergency high on the current situation, analysis of the audit’s global agenda, and many nations results, and the formulation and planning to prohibit the sale of new diesel implementation of a plan-of-action. DSPs and petrol cars within the next two are widely seen as an effective method to decades, there is an urgent need for reduce (inter alia) harmful emissions from progress towards cleaner transport delivery and servicing vehicles, and systems – in particular, electrified SCC’s desire to improve air quality in systems. This Centre of Excellence will Southampton is the background to the accelerate the pace of change through project. advances in energy storage technology, the development of digital tribology to The project consists of two DSPs. The optimise electric vehicle (EV) first involves the Bedford Place area of components, the redesign of human– Southampton where improvements have machine interfaces and a systems been made aimed at creating a more approach to infrastructure planning pleasant and attractive atmosphere, and RE4EM’s approach involves re- at creating additional space for engineering existing infrastructure and businesses in the hospitality industry to vehicles to deliver a more sustainable, operate safely outdoors in response to interconnected transport system, with a the COVID-19 crisis. As part of these focus on road transport as well as the improvements, a scheme was transition to electric rail, air and sea implemented in August 2020 to transport systems. Work to date has pedestrianise the area. The DSP is involved the development of a landscape investigating the changes in delivery and

servicing activities for the businesses policies. Our project partner in this 5- affected by the pedestrianisation scheme, month study is TRL. and quantifying the associated impacts on factors such as delivery and servicing Southampton Delivery and Servicing vehicle-kilometres (vkm) and emissions. Plans (Southampton City Council, from September 2019 to August 2020). Dr M. The second DSP involves the High Street Grote. Contract Holder: Prof T.J. Cherrett. area of Ryde on the Isle of Wight where funding has been obtained for The project consisted of four DSPs. The regeneration over the next four years. As first involved a survey of deliveries by part of this regeneration, a scheme was Carnival UK’s (CUK) local suppliers to implemented in July 2020 to Meachers Global Logistics’ (MGL) pedestrianise a section of the High Street. warehouse facilities in Southampton prior Similar to the first DSP, the second DSP to consolidation for delivery to CUK’s is investigating the changes in delivery cruise ships at the dockside. The and servicing activities for the businesses possible benefits of a milk-round affected by the pedestrianisation scheme, collection service operated by MGL as an and quantifying the associated impacts alternative to supplier deliveries were on factors such as delivery and servicing investigated, including the potential for vkm and emissions. shared fleet operations utilising spare capacity in SCC’s electric van fleet to Understanding Freight provide vehicles for the milk-round. Decarbonisation Investment Decisions (EPSRC (Decarbonising UK Freight The second DSP investigated the Transport), from 2020 to 2021). Contract possible benefits of installing parcel Holder: F.N. McLeod. collection points (e.g. Amazon Lockers) on University campuses, consolidating This project aims to identify the main the delivery of personal parcels and factors that influence investment reducing the incidence of failed deliveries. decisions for different actors in freight The analysis was based on the results of transport by road, rail or sea. This will be a survey of online shopping habits of staff achieved through online focus group and students at the University of interviews with key stakeholders, Southampton (UoS). including fleet owners, freight operators, freight trade associations, professional The third DSP was based on the same bodies and those making investment staff/student survey and considered the decisions within the public sector. These potential benefits of implementing a interviews will contribute to generate a consolidated delivery service for student multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) resident in University Halls. The service framework that will enable the involves students using a local logistics quantification of changes in the relative firm (MGL) as the address for delivery of significance of these factors for each their online orders, which are then sector over time. This study will also consolidated for delivery to Halls, thereby research the relationships between these reducing delivery vehicle traffic to Halls. factors and internal freight decarbonisation targets, and it will identify The final DSP concerned SCCs special the alignment between these and climate needs transport service for schools in emergency, energy and transport Southampton, investigating the

opportunities for, and possible benefits little thought is given to logistics in urban from, implementing a plan to provide the planning, nor the environmental burden transport service utilising schools’ faced by everyday deliveries. Transfer to minibuses or spare capacity in SCC’s more sustainable practices across own vehicle fleet. multiple, cleaner transit modes can help to relieve some of these pressures. FLIPGIG (Digitally transforming deliveries and collections in the This research aims to investigate the gig‐economy: fairer and more potential for a shared multi-modal sustainable last mile parcel logistics) logistics fleet to operate across many (EPSRC, from 2019 to 2021). F.N. applications in an urban and peri-urban McLeod. Contract Holder: Prof T.J. environment, using NHS same day Cherrett delivery systems in the Solent region as case studies. Gig-economy couriers form an integral part of many last‐mile logistics This includes: the transfer of diagnostic operations, but the industry has come specimens for analysis from GP surgeries under increasing scrutiny due to concerns to hospitals, as well as between hospitals, about poor working conditions. The ad-hoc and emergency blood stocks from project has identified inefficiencies and Southampton Blood Centre to recipient perceived unfairness relating to unpaid hospitals, cytotoxic medicines for cancer time and low pay, biases to using treatments to hospitals, and localised motorised vehicles, hiring too many pharmacy medicine deliveries. Multiple people for the work available, which can modes will be considered, taking lead to hazardous working conditions as advantage of each mode’s beneficial couriers take risks to earn a living. We traits, e.g. fast and direct transport by are now developing algorithms and drone, short range urban transport by dynamic models to optimally balance fair cycle courier, or longer distance and work with job availability and service heavy transport by LGV. The selection of level, while choosing the most vehicle type, as well as the interaction sustainable transport mode for delivery, between the platforms will be key to the while empowering gig-economy couriers development of this system. to better meet their personal working Consideration of the cargo type will also preferences. Project website: be particularly important in the medical http://www.flipgig.org/ setting of this research.

Multi-Modal Shared Logistics in an To optimise the use of these vehicle Urban Setting – Unlocking the assets, an allocation system will be Potential of the NHS Same Day developed, considering factors such as Delivery Network (PGR student, from time criticality, cost, and routing October 2019) Andy Oakey. Supervisors: restrictions. In the NHS setting, improving Prof T.J. Cherrett, Dr A. Martinez-Sykora, delivery timescales is a key target. Across Prof J.P. Scanlan. all of the case study elements, there is potential to create knock-on savings The demand for same day deliveries is across the NHS, improve quality of care, ever growing, whilst journey times in and save lives. urban areas continue to worsen as a result of increasing congestion. Typically,

To further improve the sustainability of Demand Forecast and Capacity multimodal fleets, this research will Appraisal of the United Kingdom Lift- consider how such a fleet could be on Lift-oﬀ Container Ports System shared by multiple parties in a (SMMI PhD studentship from January collaborative partnership. 2016). Manuel Buitrago. Supervisors: Prof J.M. Preston, Prof T. Bektas Restructuring the Supply Chain to (University of Liverpool). Better Serve Rural Farmers: A Case Study of Thailand’s Mango Supply The maritime sector is of the utmost Chain (PGR student, from October 2017) importance for the United Kingdom’s Korawit Fakkhong. Supervisors: Prof T.J. economy. Great Britain relies heavily on Cherrett, Prof J.M. Preston, Dr Antonio the use of sea-borne transport for most of Martinez-Sykora (external). the freight commodities. Airfreight is mainly used for high-value and time- In this study, the research addresses one sensitive products and the capacity of the of the Thai Government key goals related Channel Tunnel railway is constrained. to its food production policy; namely, to For bulk and containerised commodities, create a more inclusive operating which usually present a lower value environment for rural farmers to improve density and higher volume, maritime their transport efficiency and ensure that transport is the only feasible option. As a they can remain competitive. Original result, up to 96% of the volume of all UK primary data were gathered on the import/export trade flows use the UK production of mangoes by rural farmers ports. Roll-on roll-off (ro-ro) and lift-on lift- across Thailand and used to develop the off (lo-lo) container terminals are business-as-usual logistics case along essential to accommodate container with alternative operating scenarios using flows. Besides, amongst lo-lo terminals, range of collaborative logistics options. the UK also needs a certain deep-water The Clarke and Wright saving algorithm capacity to be able to cater for ultra-large was used to quantify the benefits of container ships (ULCS) that are deployed different operating scenarios involving (i) to the main maritime route that links the farmer sharing vehicles through a Far East with Northern Europe. Ensuring farmer’s co-operative, and (ii) a 3rd party the availability of enough spare deep- vehicle to make milk-round collection. In water capacity has become even more addition, an important aspect of the important on the eve of Brexit. collaboration is to decide on how to share the benefits, and how the transportation Apart from enabling the trading capability cost should be distributed fairly among of the nation, the ports are crucial for the the group of farmers. To investigate these UK's economy in, at least, two other issues, two different cost allocation important ways. Efficient ports increase methods were used – proportional based the competitiveness of the UK economy, on volumes and stand-alone cost and the reducing dwell times and facilitating trade. Shapley value methods based on co- Secondly, ports generate important spill operative game theory. overs. These include value generation, creation of jobs and the formation of clusters and industrial poles. The UK container port system has experienced profound change since the 1980s. The system underwent a change

in two dimensions. Firstly, all major UK 3.4 Future Technologies container ports are privately-owned, after a privatisation wave during the 80s and Examination of the Effects of New 90s. Secondly, the container traffic is Transportation Technologies and concentrated in just three major ports of Business Models on Urban Structure the south-eastern coast of the UK, which (PhD from January 2019). Paraskevi handle more than 70% of the total yearly Sarri. Supervisors: Dr I. Kaparias, Prof throughput. J.M. Preston

This research project develops new New technologies and business models models to assess capacity and demand in transportation will change the way for the lift-on lift-off container seaports in people travel in the future. New the United Kingdom. The evolution of the technologies such as autonomous, UK container port system has been connected, electrical or low emission analysed. Besides, the system capacity vehicles and business models like has been analytically appraised using a schemes like Mobility as a Service or car system of systems approach. sharing, have been researched intensely. An aggregate forecast of the demand for The last time that urban mobility had lo-lo container traffic of the United faced such evolution was in 1885 when Kingdom system of container ports has Karl Friedrich Benz created the first car been calculated up to the year 2050, that could be powered by an internal using econometric models that combustion engine. Since then the car incorporate economic growth and the cost has been the most important component of energy as predictors. Several of urban and interurban transportation scenarios have been incorporated to around the world because it has opened reflect the uncertainty and the potential economic opportunities to the population disruption caused by the future UK-EU but also it has significantly increased the relationship. Finally, the forecast traffic is speed of travelling. allocated to the individual UK containers ports by means of a ground-breaking Predicting the impacts of these Lotka-Volterra dynamic competition technologies in everyday life is necessary model. at this point. Land use and Transportation Interaction (LUTI) models are an This research presents insights to appropriate tool of modelling for the decision-makers to base port policy on assessment of many kinds of new evidence and informs crucial strategic technologies, business plans and also investment decisions for government and combination of these and not just in a industry alike. This PhD provides a one- dimensional way. Providing rationale to substantiate where and when predictions is a practice that is deeply to invest in capacity expansion. Finally, linked to science and is an integral part of the results can be used to signpost risks the design of urban systems around the to the port system, in terms of congestion, globe. In order to integrate new loss of traffic and vulnerability of the port technologies and business models in infrastructure network. LUTI models, it is inevitable that the internal mathematical structure of LUTI models has to change and become more adaptable. To achieve this using multidisciplinary models and various

mathematical relationships that relate that they neglect the priority of high transportation, location and land use occupancy vehicles. This research characteristics is essential describe and proposes an Adaptive Person Based analyse urban systems. More specifically, Signal Control Algorithm (APBSCA) to the DELTA LUTI model has been chosen minimize person delay by exploring all in this project, as it has been deemed phase combinations and feasible signal appropriate due to its strong theoretical plan strategies at isolated urban foundations. intersections. The control system has been improved and extended to be The results of such a study come from coordinated in large road network scales. both the urban models but also other The different coordination levels of aspects, such as transportation models APBSCA have been tested in simulation and data from new technologies, thus to understand how information they can be beneficial for both the communication degree affect the individual and the society in general. Here performances of proposed algorithms. it is important to mention that some of the The research builds evaluation results that have occurred from analysis frameworks for coordinated APBSCA in in this project were accepted for large scale case study with variety traffic presentation from the 9th Symposium of demand levels and penetration rates, the European Association for Research in incorporates multi-modal vehicles and Transportation. New technologies such pedestrians into algorithm for control as autonomous vehicles, can bring system enhancements. The current sustainability to mobility solutions in the research attempts to improve the future and thus being able to predict the behaviours of control system in low impacts of them can prevent possible penetration rate situations where lack of policy and planning mistakes. The new connected information for both vehicular and more versatile to new technologies data and occupancy data. framework can be used as a tool for both urban design and transportation planning Addressing the New Reality of Vehicle and engineering. Automation in Highway Design (sponsored by the EPSRC Sustainable Exploring Person-based Signal Infrastructure Systems CDT, iPhD Control Paradigms in Urban Road studentship from September 2017). Networks (PhD from January 2018). Hameed Jehanfo. Supervisors: Dr I. Zongyuan Wu. Supervisors: Dr B.J. Kaparias, Prof J.M. Preston. Waterson, Dr B. Anvari (external). It is estimated that by 2025, the global This project aims to understand the intelligent mobility market will be worth benefits of adopting extra occupancy £900bn per year, with fully autonomous information obtained from connected vehicles predicted to hold a 25% market vehicles in control strategies. In share in the automobile industry by 2030. particular, the research focuses on The UK has signalled its resolve to be investigating impact of considering prepared for this transport shift by occupancy delay reduction rather than launching the Centre for Connected and vehicle delay reduction for achieving Autonomous Vehicles (CCAV) in 2015 person-based metrics. The report reviews with the sole objective to “keep the UK at existing urban signal control strategies, the forefront of the development and points out their drawbacks and highlights deployment of [CAV] technology”,

investing more than £250m into 70 concrete, which restricts the ability to research and development projects from compare the deterioration impact of CATs 2014 to 2018, and enacting the on different pavement construction Automated and Electric Vehicles Act systems. Finally, the existing studies do 2018, which provides bespoke insurance not account fully for the effect of lane for CAVs accidents. Yet, the government widths on pavement deterioration in their acknowledges that the existing roads – analysis. which have been design and constructed using standards developed for The core aim of this research is to find conventional vehicles - are unfit for CAVs. highway design solutions for CATs that But developing a new approach to road optimises the WLC of the highway design for CAVs must be supported by infrastructure. This will be achieved by adequate research to avoid uneconomical analysing the pavement failure effects of over-designs or under-designed highway CATs as the main focus, and then infrastructure which fail prematurely. An extending the work to incorporate the optimised whole-life cost (WLC) design highway engineering variables (such as solution is required to achieve a balanced lane configuration and widths), that approach. significantly impact on pavement deterioration. A key component in whole-life cost analysis is the physical road Based on a conceptual motorway link, infrastructure, of which the structural multiple scenarios will be generated and pavement forms a major constituent. analysed, and then costings integrated to Current pavement designs are produce an optimal highway infrastructure deliberately conservative due to two main design model for CATs. The research will factors. Firstly, the lane distribution formulate a new WLC optimisation models of manual trucks on multi-lane technique which can be used to produce highways are indeterminate. However, a model for designing highways for CATs. the lane choice of CAVs can be more precisely controlled, reducing uncertainty Electric Vehicle Drivers and their Use in pavement fatigue loading. Secondly, of Digital Media (part-time PhD, from wheel channel positions of manual trucks December 2013). Farah Alkhalisi. within the lanes follow a normal Supervisors: Dr B.J. Waterson, Prof T.J. distribution function, which moderately Cherrett. Awarded 2020 concentrates the wheel loads, very much unlike the zero (high wheel load Promoting the use of renewable-source concentration) or uniform wander (no fuels has greater potential to reduce wheel load concentration) models of transport-related carbon emissions in the connected autonomous trucks (CATs). short to medium term than changed traveller behaviour, especially given Investigations into relationships between doubts that Western Europe has reached CAVs and engineering aspects of road ‘peak car’. Although electric vehicles design are scarce. Although there is (EVs) currently only account for around some activity in the area of pavement 1% of new cars sold in the UK, they are analysis for CATs, none provides a intended to play a key role in meeting the whole-life optimised solution for highway objectives of the 2008 Climate Change re-design. Also, the range of pavement Act. Strategies to counter barriers – both materials is limited to flexible asphalt

technical and cultural - to EV purchase or into the existing charging infrastructure, adoption are therefore clearly necessary. and the issues that could be encountered during deployment. This research has Transport users, cyclists and walkers are seen the development of both traffic and increasingly using digital technologies energy models to analyse various such as social media platforms, deployment scenarios and to understand smartphone apps and crowd-sourced the limitations of taking laboratory databases to overcome infrastructural prototype systems to full scale shortfalls; for car-sharing; and for deployment. Whilst the traffic modelling intermodal transport. Little is known, has involved both microscopic and however, about the extent to which EV macroscopic simulation, the development drivers could be similarly using digital of instantaneous energy consumption, resources related to, for example, power transfer and emission programs location of public charging points; were significant contributions of the scheduling and remote monitoring of their research. The study concludes with the cars’ charging; or technical data and necessary tools to quantify the information-sharing. This research optimisation of deployment scenarios. therefore attempts to understand the relationships between electric vehicle Integrating Connected Vehicles into drivers and digital media. the Transport Network (EPSRC CDT in NGCM Studentship from September Optimising Wireless Electric Vehicle 2015) Craig B. Rafter Supervisors: Dr T.J. Charging Locations (iPhD student from Cherrett, Dr B. Anvari. Industrial Sponsor: October 2015). Luke Hutchinson. Transport Research Laboratory. Awarded Supervisors: Dr B.J. Waterson, Dr B. 2020 Anvari. Industrial Sponsor: Transport Research Laboratory. Connected intelligent transport systems contain a wealth of data accessible to Wireless Power Transfer offers a viable traffic signal controllers. However, means of charging Electric Vehicles (EV) algorithms that use data from a whilst in a dynamic state, mitigating connected environment do not fully issues concerning vehicle range, the size exploit the potential of this new data of on-board energy storage and the source. Instead, traffic signal controllers network distribution of static based rely on speed and position data to charging systems. Such charge while supplement data from infrastructure. This driving technology has the capability to research aims to understand which data accelerate EV market penetration through that are available from connected increasing user convenience, reducing vehicles are useful for traffic signal EV costs and increasing driving range control in urban environments. Vehicle indefinitely, dependent upon sufficient positions and speeds fit well into our charging infrastructure. Yet, the detailed current understanding of traffic theory, but vehicle interactions of both users and more abstract data such as passenger non-users of a dynamic charging system counts and stop frequencies may offer has received little analysis. new ways to optimise traffic signal controllers to reduce traffic delays. The project intends to identify the potential of the dynamic charging This research shows how data connected situation, how it could be implemented vehicles can be exploited to improve

urban traffic signal control, and how using outputs and HCC’s Sub-Regional connected vehicle data differs from Transport Model (SRTM). traditional sources. The outcomes of this research have a significant impact on the Providing Improved Information to Rail implementation of connected intelligent Passengers & Understanding the transportation systems and policy for the Value of Data Privacy (EPSRC IAA, transportation industry. June 2020 to June 2021). Dr J. Pritchard. Contract Holder: Dr S.P. Blainey

3.5 Rail The overall aim of the project is to work with the Rail Delivery Group (RDG), via NISMOD-TRD – Developing secondment of a TRG researcher to Applications of the ITRC-NISMOD RDG, to develop improved passenger Transport Model (EPSRC IAA, July information systems and services which 2020 to July 2021). A. Hickford. Contract may require the use of personal data. Holder: Prof J.M. Preston. This will help ensure that the rail industry (and ultimately society) benefits from This project aims to establish and previous EPSRC-funded research into develop relationships between the the value placed by travellers on transport modelling and strategies team information provision and data privacy. in TRG and national, regional and local The project will also sustain and enhance transport bodies, promoting the the relationship between the University of application of ITRC’s NISMODv2 Southampton and rail industry bodies Transport model. The model has had (notably RDG), building on the relatively limited exposure to planners University’s role in the UK Rail Research and strategic decision makers, and this and Innovation Network (UKRRIN). Work project will initially develop collaborative during the secondment will be focused in relationships with the National two main areas. The first will involve Infrastructure Commission (NIC), developing a framework for evaluating the Hampshire County Council (HCC) and benefits of improved information provision Solent Transport. Building on previous and service enhancements, which work with the NIC, the new modelling properly takes in to account the capabilities of NISMOD-Tv2 will be used importance of data privacy and the to examine future options for the GB willingness of passengers to provide any strategic road network, including an necessary data. Secondly, the TRG assessment of the impact of DfT’s Road researcher will work with the Rail Delivery Investment Strategy on congestion, Group as they develop new passenger journey times and emissions. More information systems, focusing particularly locally, transport options for future on assessing the suitability of additional developments in Southampton, data sources for incorporation in such Portsmouth and the wider Solent systems. Transport and Hampshire regions will be investigated, to assess the impacts of Assisted VSTP (Very Short Term currently planned strategic objectives and Planning) (Bellvedi/Tracsis for RSSB determine possible pathways to meet from July 2020 to May 2022). Dr J such objectives, together with a Armstrong. Contract Holder: Prof J.M. comparison of the NISMOD-Tv2 model Preston.

Timetable planning for Britain’s railways The delay attribution (DA) process is is a long-term process, starting over a time- and resource-consuming, and prone year prior to the twice-yearly introduction to error, inconsistency and dispute, and of new national timetable. Alongside the would benefit from the automation of the longer-term term timetable planning (LTP) attribution process for those reactionary process, there is also a requirement for delays whose causes can be determined the short- (STP) and very short-term directly and unambiguously from the data planning (VSTP) of passenger and freight available from the signalling system, and trains in the days and hours prior to their are thus causally self-evident. operation, in response to changes in TRG is supporting CACI Ltd. on this demand and operating circumstances, RSSB-sponsored project, reviewing the including operational disruptions. The current DA process in Britain alongside short timescales available for STP and, international research and practice, and especially, VSTP services currently conducting industry stakeholder precludes their full validation, introducing engagement to ascertain the nature of the performance risks and the likelihood of current DA system, its shortcomings, and sub-optimal infrastructure, rolling stock opportunities and aspirations for and traincrew resource allocation. improvement. The findings of the review TRG is assisting Bellvedi/Tracsis in the and consultation processes have been development of an improved VSTP presented to RSSB and the project system, focussing on the identification of steering group representing the wider robust VSTP train paths and the railway industry, and provide the basis for development of improved contingency ongoing option development. TRG are plans in response to operational also supporting CACI in the process of disruptions. developing, reviewing and calibrating the automated DA algorithm. Causal Self-Evident Reactionary Delays (CACI for RSSB from February IntelliDwellTime (RSSB from November 2020 to July 2021). Dr J Armstrong. 2019 to June 2020). Dr J. Pritchard and Contract Holder: Prof J.M. Preston. staff from GeoData Institute. Contract Holder: Dr S.P. Blainey. When trains on Britain’s railways are delayed by three minutes or more, the This project was undertaken in causes of these delays are investigated partnership with Porterbrook, Elastacloud and, where possible, each delay is and Abellio Scotrail as part of the RSSB attributed to a cause category and code, Data Sandbox+ programme. It built on and is allocated to one or more incidents modelling and visualisation work carried that ultimately caused the delay. Delays out during a previous project on fall into two broad categories: direct or ‘Predicting and Mitigating Small primary delays, where a train is delayed Fluctuations in Station Dwell Times’. The directly by an infrastructure or rolling project collated and analysed on-train stock failure or some other cause, to monitoring data from the Scotrail fleet and which the delay is allocated; and used this to create a pre-commercial reactionary or secondary delays, where a product capable of understanding and train is indirectly delayed by another predicting variations in train performance delayed train. which are likely to cause dwell time exceedances. This should help to reduce delay minutes and thus increase the cost-

effectiveness of fleet operation. and environmental impacts of such Southampton’s role centred on data interventions. This involves working in integration, modelling and visualisation partnership with Network Rail (with whom for the software product. the University of Southampton has a Strategic Partnership), and with other T2F T2F: Track to the Future – Economic researchers at the universities of and Environmental Modelling (EPSRC Southampton, Birmingham, Nottingham Programme Grant from June 2015 to May and Huddersfield. Work has focused on 2021). Dr J. Armstrong, Dr M.A. Young, life cycle cost and carbon modelling of the G. Rempelos. Contract Holders: Prof installation of under-sleeper pads and the J.M. Preston, Dr S.P. Blainey. use of fibre-reinforced ballast and on comparing ballasted and non-ballasted This programme grant follows on from the track systems. TRG are currently Track21 project (2011-2015) and involves developing (in partnership with the addressing additional research questions Institute for Sound and Vibration with the aim of delivering improved Research) a more accurate and spatially railway infrastructure performance, as detailed socio-economic assessment of well as further research based on some changes in noise and vibration from of the key outputs from Track21. As train railway track systems using GIS to frequencies and speeds continue to combine and process a range of increase over time, railway track is being datasets. A generalised socio-economic more intensively used, which leads, in assessment methodology for track turn, to increased maintenance system interventions based on data requirements. Combined with the urgent ontologies is also being developed in need to reduce the railway system’s costs conjunction with researchers at the and environmental impacts, this places University of Birmingham. great pressure on railway infrastructure operators. Alongside this, it will also be Improving Customer Experience While necessary to mitigate the impacts of Ensuring Data Privacy (‘DICE’) climate change on railway track systems, (EPSRC, September 2016 to February with coastal railways potentially 2020). Dr J. Pritchard. Contract Holder: particularly vulnerable in this regard. Dr S.P. Blainey, jointly with University of Surrey, Loughborough University, and In order to help the rail industry tackle Royal Holloway University of London. these challenges relating to track maintenance and performance, T2F is This project is investigating the trade-offs addressing three key research rail passengers might face between data challenges. The first is to develop low privacy and improvements to the maintenance and long-life track systems customer experience. Particular attention with optimised use of materials. The is paid to passengers with special journey second is to design crossings and requirements and to future ticketing transitions so as to optimise vehicle systems. Research areas include: the behaviour and consequently maximise development of an effective trust the service life of trains, and the third is to framework to enable customer control develop an integrated approach to the over data privacy; the development of design of low-noise and low-vibration data aggregation techniques which aid track. TRG’s contribution to the project the provision of an improved customer involves the calculation of the economic experience without compromising data

anonymisation; testing the applicability of and traffic growth resumes). The industry these frameworks and techniques to thus faces the potential twin challenges of potential future ticketing solutions; providing capacity to accommodate traffic developing use case scenarios for growth, while operating the additional systems to improve the rail customer services punctually and reliably. Primary experience; and assessing the demand delay levels remained fairly constant in and environmental impacts of providing recent pre-Covid years, while secondary an improved customer experience delay increased and formed enabled by these systems. approximately 70% of recorded delays. Unattributed, small delays (less than Our initial focus, working mainly with the three minutes) made up approximately team from Loughborough, was on 35% of all delay, and need to be better analysing a set of customer complaints in understood, both in terms of their causes order to ascertain the factors which can and as a source of larger, secondary lead to a degraded customer experience, delays. and understand how individual context This project investigated the timetabling can make a difference. This helped build process and the relationship between the up a picture of where the potential trade- timetable and the rules underpinning it offs between data privacy and customer and the resulting performance in terms of experience might lie. The second phase train punctuality. It identified statistically of our research involved carrying out on- significant relationships between planned train stated preference surveys on the dwell and running time values and Great Western Railway Network to punctuality for individual stations and assess the trade-offs passengers are route sections. These relationships were prepared to make between provision of then used to predict the performance of personal data and an improved journey train services over longer route sections, experience during times of disruption. with encouraging results. This process and the findings obtained can be used to Data-Driven Robust Timetabling (RSSB identify the sources and causes of small, from November 2019 to October 2020). timetable-related primary and secondary Dr J Armstrong, S. Zieger (Visitor from delays, which can in turn be used to RWTH Aachen University). Contract modify the timetable planning process to Holder: Prof J.M. Preston. reduce and eliminate these delays. This will improve the punctuality and reliability Britain’s railways carried a record number of train services, making better use of the (1.759bn) of passengers in 2018-19. As available network capacity and, where traffic grew on the network prior to the possible, providing the certainty needed Covid pandemic, it became increasingly to introduce additional services without challenging to operate trains punctually, causing delays to existing trains. as even a small initial, or primary, delay to one train could quickly cause knock-on, Research on High-speed Railway secondary delays to other services, and Network Capacity Utilisation & delay and congestion could spread Optimisations (Funded by China rapidly across the network as a result Scholarship Council, PhD from (punctuality has improved with the September 2020). Jiaxi Li. Supervisors: reduction in passenger demand and train Prof J.M. Preston, Dr J. Armstrong. services because of Covid, but is likely to deteriorate again if and when demand

Rail transport, with its eco-friendly effects For the next coming decades, a new and high carrying volumes, creates strong major railway network is less likely to be economic linkage among cities and is a built, while the transport demand keeps valuable solution to commuting crowds growing in the world. In this case, and other travel for most countries. effectively improving the capacity However, what troubles railway utilisation of a railway network, mainly by operations throughout the world, no optimising TOSs, will be railway matter whether the railway is a high- companies’ common choice. As it has speed system or not, is the increasingly mentioned above, a network level intensive capacity utilisation of railway research will be one of the rare research infrastructures in some busy areas, in topics despite a long history of railway peak periods, or both. This causes a gap capacity study, and it would greatly between train service supplies and travel support the scheduling efficiency of demands. railway timetabling departments guided by the research. Capacity utilisation indices, based on timetable compression, were first A Comparative Assessment of developed for plain track and more Intercity Transport Technologies: A recently have been developed for nodes Saudi Arabian Case Study (PhD from (junctions and stations), including work at September 2016). Hamad Almujibah. the University of Southampton. However, Supervisors: Prof J.M. Preston, Dr S.P. they are rarely developed for networks. Blainey. Building on previous works by the student in undergraduate and postgraduate With increasing urbanization worldwide, research, the initial focus will be on passenger demand for inter-urban travel optimising capacity utilisation for the has grown and the development of new China High Speed Rail Network, the transport technologies is needed, such as largest high-speed railway network in the High-Speed Rail (HSR), Magnetic world, serving a complex Origin- Levitation (Maglev) and Hyperloop. This Destination Passenger Flow structure. thesis undertakes a comparative assessment of these three intercity In this research, several parts will consist transport technologies in terms of their of an optimisation framework of railway service characteristics. The aim is to network capacity utilisation to achieve a identify the most suitable transport mode balance between a train operation with the lowest average social and structure (TOS) (the time distribution of a operator cost for an identified corridor certain number of train lines) and a highly under the level of demand that is efficient capacity utilisation of a high- forecast. speed railway network. The transferability of the analytical framework and The comparative assessment method assessment method to classic rail comprises four models. The first is the services and the interaction between high Spreadsheet Total Cost Model (STCM), speed and classic rail service will be which focuses on calculating the social examined, possibly adopting a case study and financial costs according to the of High-Speed 2 in the UK and its vehicle characteristics and unit costs of interaction with classic rail services each of the transport technologies provided by the West Coast Partnerships. studied. It includes operator cost, user cost, external cost and, hence, social cost

and average social cost. Second, a Demand Forecast Model (DFM) is There are many reasons for investment in developed to forecast travel demand for high-speed rail (HSR), such as increasing HSR flows. This model includes transport capacity, enhancing network, parameters such as the population along supporting mode shift from air travel to the corridor, Gross Domestic Product HSR, but often one of the primary (GDP) per capita, generalized journey reasons for promoting HSR investment is time, percentage of unemployment and a reduction in journey time. While HSR number of years since the lines opened. services are usually able to achieve a The third model is a Stated Preference reduction in on-board time between major Model (SPM) to examine the choice of centres, not all HSR services are Hyperloop over other modes of transport necessarily successful in achieving and to gain an understanding of how reductions in door-to-door journey time. decisions are made when people are Therefore, this research reviews high- faced with several transport alternatives. speed rail routes and their stations The fourth is the Elasticity of Demand around the world to investigate factors Model (EDM) to determine existing mode affecting the door-to-door journey time flows in terms of generalized journey such as station connectivity, accessibility, time, including by conventional rail, air, location, HSR route alignment and car and bus. service operation. Then, with the assessment of the existing applications, The Riyadh–Dammam corridor in Saudi for the future HSR construction, a Arabia is used as a case study in which to guideline will be provided to help apply the comparative assessment transport planners on the provision of method proposed by this thesis to HSR services in a way which maximises examine High Speed Ground the potential journey time benefits. Transportation (HSGT). The aims are to determine the most suitable transport An Assessment of Reforms to modes in terms of level of service and Optimise the Railway Organisation in total social and operator costs, and to Saudi Arabia (PhD from April 2018). forecast passenger demand. In this case Sultan AlSaedi. Supervisors: Prof J.M. study, Hyperloop appears to be the best Preston, Dr S.P. Blainey. next-generation high-velocity HSGT, since it has the lowest average social The Saudi government has started to cost (ASC) of €67.7 per passenger in reform its railway industry by following the 2030, compared to €103.3 for HSR and international trends in railway reform. The €100.2 for Maglev due to its lower initial stage of railway reform that has capacity, which leads to a high hourly occurred was the ownership reform when service frequency. the government created a new railway company, Saudi Railway Company Streamlined Train Travel: Assessing (SAR), for the North-South Railway and Reducing Door-To-Door Journey project rather than constructing and Times Associated with New Rail operating this project under Saudi Infrastructure (funded by the Turkish Railway Organisation (SRO) Government, PhD Studentship from responsibility. The reforms also involved September 2018) Emine Tugba Yazici. privatising Haramain High-Speed Rail Supervisors: Dr S.P. Blainey and Dr M.A. (HHSR) under a build-operate-transfer Young (BOT) contract with a Saudi-Spanish

alliance. Most recently, there has been a that can maximise production technology. merger in which SRO assets have been The second measure is the cost transferred to SAR. Despite these efficiency, which aims to select the reforms, the railway’s industrial optimum railway reform that can achieve organisation can be seen as not fully cost minimisation. For these two developed compared to the other measures, the project will develop a industries. In addition, the rail benchmark by using the Data infrastructure is not yet fully developed. Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and The current rail network has a total Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA). The network-line length of 4,580 km, and the last measure is the socioeconomic planned rail projects will expand the efficiency, which means that different network up to 9,900 km by 2040. forms of railway organisation will be Therefore, the aim of the research project assessed with respect to welfare is to determine the optimal organisation of economics. It should be noted that the rail services in Saudi Arabia that has not project has selected 32 countries from fully developed its rail network. Moreover, Europe, the Middle East, the Central and the project assumes different forms of East Asia between 2000 and 2017 with a railway reform to achieve the maximum of 439 observations. At the optimisation. end, the project will draw some conclusion and recommendations The railway reform can be described as regarding the rail policies, and these any changes in the rail policies, recommendations will be validated by investment plans and the structure of the interviewing the railway industry experts. rail industry. Practically, the railway reform can be clustered in three blocks A Whole Life Carbon Model for based on country experiences. The first Railway Track System Interventions block is the regulation reform, which aims (EPSRC and Network Rail Sustainable to introduce different forms of Infrastructure Systems iPhD from competition, to impose different levels of January 2018). Georgios Rempelos. economic regulation, to create regulatory Supervisors: Prof J.M. Preston, Dr S.P. bodies, etc. The second block is the Blainey. structural reform, where the railway organisation is restructured horizontally The UK’s rail network consists of and/or vertically in two models. A vertical approximately 20,800 miles of track and separation model is a form of separating estimates suggest that the volume of the rail infrastructure from train operation. maintenance and renewal required A horizontal separation model is a form of results in approximately 430,000 to segregating passenger from freight rail 934,000 t CO2 per annum. This project services and/or regional division. The last aims to develop a cost and carbon block is the ownership reform, which emissions model framework for railway takes a form of explicit privatisation or track systems, covering the whole life of deregulation of the rail market. the infrastructure. The model will be capable of modelling the impacts of a To deliver the assessment, the project wide range of track system sets three measures to select the optimal interventions, including the full range of railway organisation. The first measure is engineering solutions developed during the technical efficiency, which aims to the Track21/Track to the Future (T2F) identify the most railway reform option research programmes. In essence, this

project aims to produce a framework associated with the four most common which will work as an analytical tool to sleeper types present in the UK rail better understand the carbon footprint of network. This work is now extended with today’s rail industry and, subsequently, a focus on LCC and GHG emissions assist the decision-making process for modelling of optimised ballasted track both minimising CO2 and realising forms (e.g. fibre-reinforced ballast, sizeable financial/social benefits. The under sleeper pads, twin-block sleepers, results from this work are purposed to composite sleepers, re-profiled shoulder be fed into a wider Cost Benefit Analysis track, and finer ballast gradings, etc.) (CBA) framework, in order to objectively through route-based case studies. To do assess different track interventions that, a methodology, based on relative qualitatively and quantitatively at a settlement was proposed to adapt the macro level and subsequently assist results of laboratory tests into a suitable stakeholder decision-making. parameter for input into VTISM.

Presently, the project is focussed on Future work will extend the proposed analysing a range of future track framework to include other systems, but in order to establish the costs/revenues and externalities, with extent to which these are an the overall aim of developing an improvement over existing ones, it is integrated methodology for investigating necessary to undertake a whole-life the potential of different interventions to environmental appraisal of their relative reduce both LCC and externalities of performance. Aside of the ballasted track. This is important as it environmental externalities of the could provide new perspectives for infrastructure, the project attempts to targeting lifecycle enhancements, as provide a link between both cost and well as better aid project and policy carbon, examining prospective trade- decisions. offs between the upfront and the ongoing financial and environmental The Project Economics and externalities throughout the useful life of Management of Railways in the Middle these structures. Of particular interest East (PhD (Part-time) from October are potential performance comparisons 2018). Fawad Munir. Supervisors: Prof between different optimised ballasted J.M. Preston, Dr S.P. Blainey. track forms with interventions developed during Track21/T2F. The focus of this research is the “Investment choice” of establishing a Work so far focussed on individual life modern rail, and other transport, networks cycle cost (LCC) and carbon foot- in the Gulf region. From a recent open printing studies based largely on source literature (www.meed.com) and existing embodied carbon factor media review (Gulf News) it emerges that databases such as the ‘Bath Inventory almost all Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) of Carbon and Energy’, the ‘Rail Carbon authorities are seeking alternatives to state Tool’ by Rail Safety and Standards investment in major transport projects. An Board (RSSB), and a rail industry- example of this could be the ambitious yet specific software, VTISM. In detail, this hugely delayed GCC rail project. It is includes a streamlined LCA study to unclear if, or how, an investment model has evaluate and compare the lifecycle been considered in the strategic decision of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions the GCC rail network, but it seems that any

such studies have only been done at a DAFNI (Data and Analytics Facility for rudimentary level. It is argued by Harry National Infrastructure) represents an £8 Markowitz that stock investors with million investment from the UK sufficient computational resources can be Collaboratorium for Research on compared with government bodies and Infrastructure and Cities (UKCRIC) to client organisations and therefore it is provide infrastructure systems research feasible to assume that portfolio theory capabilities and enhance the quality of can either be utilised prior to the modelling and other research outputs. investment decision or soon after the DAFNI aims to improve the efficiency, feasibility study and decision to go ahead reliability and sustainability of with one or the other project. Therefore, in infrastructure through better sharing and the context of GCC rail projects, this use of data, exploitation of simulation and research will draw parallels with the optimization techniques, and engagement investment portfolio theory and look at with stakeholders through visualisation. alternative models such as Public Private Partnerships (PPPs). There are five main projects (across At first, a comparative and parametric seven universities) associated with the study for existing economic models of DAFNI Champion programme. The long-distance railways and/or Metro in responsibilities of DAFNI Champion for modern western countries may be carried the University of Southampton and TRG out. This will provide a benchmark for are threefold: identify potential future comparison with the current GCC users of DAFNI, and host discussions practices. Then this study would critically and presentations with particular groups analyse financial studies of GCC region and individuals to promote the facility railway projects regarding their investment within the Engineering department and policy. further afield; advocacy for the facility within the wider transport research The study will provide recommendations, community across the UK via the a framework and a model for transport Universities’ Transport Study Group infrastructure investment. This study will (UTSG – www.utsg.net), to try to be useful for government organisations and determine the key requirements from a other stakeholders for investment choice facility such as DAFNI, and how might it for a new railway network. Additionally, this be appropriate for transport research research work can also recommend on generally; and user feedback as the ITRC existing networks in order to establish NISMODv2 modelling suite is network wide polices of freight and incorporated into DAFNI’s capabilities. passenger movement, for a viable business case. Pathways to Decarbonise Transport in England’s Economic Heartland (EEH, March to May 2020). A Hickford. Contract 3.6 Transport and Infrastructure Holders: Dr S.P. Blainey, Prof J.M. Policy Preston, jointly with University of Oxford.

DAFNI Champion (STFC, July 2020 to Outputs from the NISMOD transport April 2021). A Hickford. Contract Holder: model were used to investigate the Dr S.P. Blainey. effects of population change on travel demand, and the subsequent impact of different sets of options, or ‘Pathways’, to

help achieve the net-zero carbon target Prof J.M. Preston, jointly with University for transport in EEH by 2050. The of Oxford. challenging target implies a substantial change in the vehicle fleet towards zero- This project forms part of the FCDO High emission vehicles, coupled with Volume Transport research programme, technological solutions to improve both and will involve developing and delivering vehicle efficiencies and the use of the what will be (to the best of our road and rail networks, and promoting knowledge) the first multi-state transport behaviour change of drivers and infrastructure decision support system in passengers to reduce the number and a developing context. The system will nature of motorised trips in the region. aim to support investment decisions and Each of the alternative ‘Pathways to option selection for long distance Decarbonisation’ focuses on a specific strategic land transport projects by approach to change the way that people providing a fast and consistent travel in the future: ‘Highly Connected’, methodology for comparing the involving increased use of digital advantages and disadvantages of communications and embedded different project options. As well as technologies in the transport network; covering infrastructure investments, the ‘Adapted Fleet’, consisting of rapid system will be sufficiently flexible to also technological development (and allow assessment of changes to the electrification) of the vehicle stock; and management and operation of long- ‘Behaviour Shift’ toward more intensive distance road and rail systems. The use of fewer vehicles achieved through project is working at national and road pricing and education measures. international scales, modelling the road, The measures and interventions rail and port networks in Kenya, contributing to each Pathway change Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia, with a travel demand. Road pricing measures particular focus on strategic freight help to reduce demand, while our network development. Initial work is assumptions regarding autonomous focusing in two areas. Future scenarios vehicles provide higher road capacities, for strategic transport networks are being so more vehicles can use the same road developed covering both exogenous network, resulting in higher flows. factors such as population and economic Population growth adds continuing development and endogenous factors pressure to the transport network, and including infrastructure changes and levels of congestion are expected to advances in transport technology. The increase as population grows. The mix of project is also assembling datasets to interventions could help reduce the represent the transport infrastructure overall demand on the transport network, networks across the case study region but it will require significant effort through and the usage of these networks. These governance, legislation and public will to datasets and scenarios will form the basis affect such large-scale changes. for developing a methodology for calculating sustainability metrics Decision Support Systems for associated with potential transport Resilient Strategic Transport Networks schemes, including carbon emissions, in Low Income Countries (FCDO, July local air pollution, network resilience and 2020 to July 2022). A. Hickford, Dr M.A. safety. A comprehensive network Young. Contract Holders: Dr S.P. Blainey, resilience assessment will be carried out, including the identification of locations

which are exposed to climate hazards improved/integrated planning to promote and quantification of the risk to transport walking and cycling (and sustainable networks at these points. Finally, the travel generally), instead of using the car, project will build a web-based tool to and providing innovative approaches to allow transport stakeholders to explore local urban design, which engages local future scenarios, navigate trade-offs children and adults as stakeholders and between different sustainability goals and participants in the development and build compare transport investments and process, as well as enabling and policies. simplifying city planning procedures for the implementation of child-friendly Metamorphosis (EU Horizon 2020, in neighbourhood measures and activities, partnership with SCC, from June 2017 to e.g. as implemented in Southampton. May 2020, and extended with the EU to TRG has also provided a systematic October 2020). Dr A. Wong. Contract review of the interventions and measures Holder: Prof J.M. Preston. that have been applied through different local case studies in the cities, as well as This H2020 project consisted of 13 in the development of Implementation consortium partners, including seven city ‘Fact Sheets’ that provide useful authorities in the UK and Continental indicators for the effort required, impact Europe, who committed to transforming and cost. parts of their neighbourhoods from being As part of the project, Southampton has car-orientated to child-friendly and benefited from the implementation of community-oriented spaces. The partner several ‘School Streets’ schemes, cities and neighbourhoods comprised a beginning with St. John’s School in the wide variety of demographic and location Old Town, and semi-permanent trials areas, and each worked with an underway during 2020 at Freemantle academic or enterprise partner leading Academy, St. Mary’s Primary, Shirley different strands of the project, to help Junior, Shirley Infant, and Mansbridge improve local quality-of-life and the Primary Schools. Trial street closures and physical and mental well-being of their local community interventions were also citizens. The seven cities comprised implemented in the neighbourhood of (1) Graz, Austria; (2) Meran, Italy; Sholing, which resulted in greater levels (3) Munich, Germany; (4) Tilburg, of walking and cycling, particularly to the Netherlands; (5) Alba Iulia, Romania; local community hub and Valentine (6) Zurich, Switzerland; and School, and reduced car use. (7) Southampton, UK, with TRG leading TRG also played a major role in on the ‘user analysis and involvement’ developing the EU CIVITAS ‘Four work package involving all partners, as Neighbourhood’ Projects conference well as supporting the City of (online) in October, to share ideas for Southampton in local implementations. developing sustainable mobility in local Each partner city has implemented a neighbourhoods and communities, which series of trials to encourage more ‘child built on the EU INEA/CIVITAS cluster friendly neighbourhoods’, to show what workshop for effectively ‘co-creating’ can be achieved, and expanded on the urban mobility schemes the previous availability of community shared space, year. play streets, living laboratories, crystallisation points, and other public space interventions. Benefits include

delivery and management of the programme, with the university’s input being provided by representatives from TRG. As part of the DAFNI programme a virtual reality facility is currently being installed on the Boldrewood Campus which will facilitate a range of research into human-transport interactions.

Multiscale Infrastructure Systems Analytics (MISTRAL) (EPSRC Example measures and activities implemented as part of Metamorphosis to create child-friendly Programme Grant from January 2016 to neighbourhoods June 2020). Dr M. Lovric, A.J. Hickford. Contract Holders: Prof J.M. Preston, Dr UKCRIC Strand C: Data Analytics S.P. Blainey, Prof R. Nicholls (Energy Facility for National Infrastructure and Climate Change), jointly with six (DAFNI) (EPSRC from April 2017 to other universities and industrial and March 2021). Contract Holder: Dr S.P. government partners. Blainey, jointly with eleven other universities. MISTRAL is phase 2 of the Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC), DAFNI is a major UK facility which aims expanding the scale and reach of the to advance infrastructure research. NISMOD (National Infrastructure Model) Based at Science and Technology Facility system. ITRC’s vision is for complex Council (STFC Harwell), DAFNI will host infrastructure decisions to be guided by national infrastructure datasets and systems analysis. Using the pioneering provide a complex system science driven tools developed by the ITRC team, platform for modelling, simulation and decision-makers are able to visualise and visualisation. These capabilities will be assess how all of their infrastructure underpinned by the high throughput data systems are performing, help to pinpoint interconnectivity and integrated high vulnerabilities and quantify the risks of performance computing facilities required failure. The tools are capable of for multi-scale infrastructure system performing ‘what-if’ analysis of proposed modelling, linked with a unique national investments and exploring the effects of infrastructure database. DAFNI will be future uncertainties, such as population implemented and tested over the four- growth, new technologies and climate year period from 2017 to 2021, enabling change. A key feature of the ITRC significant new advances in infrastructure projects has been a high level of research and facilitating access to tools engagement with industry and and methods capable of addressing real- government, and the modelling tools world challenges at a range of scales. It produced as part of ITRC and MISTRAL will therefore provide world-leading have been used by the National capability to support UK research, Infrastructure Commission, Oxford- business and government in Cambridge Arc and England’s Economic infrastructure systems analysis, Heartland among others. Results for modelling, simulation and visualisation. these studies have been disseminated The University of Southampton is one of widely and have generated interest from 12 partner institutions overseeing the a range of stakeholders.

2017, funded by the Vietnamese The transport model developed by TRG Government and Faculty of Engineering has undergone further development. The and Physical Sciences), Minh Tam Vu. model is centred on building an integrated Supervisors: Prof J.M. Preston, Dr S.P. framework covering capacity, demand Blainey. and risk, and incorporating a network- based representation of the British Powered two wheelers (PTWs) are transport system, and base year OD dominant in mixed traffic environments in matrix for Great Britain. Work is ongoing developing countries and in particular in to incorporate NISMOD onto DAFNI East Asia. Furthermore, significant (Data and analytics Facility for National increases in PTWs and Demand Infrastructure). Responsive Rapid (e.g. Taxi and Uber) in urban areas pose a challenge to planning ACHILLES (Assessment, Costing and authorities and policy makers. A popular Enhancement of Long-Life, Long- solution is to invest in urban public Linear Assets) (EPSRC Programme transport (PT) schemes such as Bus Grant, July 2018 to December 2022). Dr Rapid Transit (BRT), Urban Rail Transit J. Armstrong. Contract Holder: Prof J.M. Preston. (URT) and Monorail. However, many investments in PT have been ineffective. ACHILLES is led by Newcastle University Additionally, there seems to be very little and also includes universities at Bath, evidence on evaluation methods of Durham, Leeds and Loughborough, as motorcycles, cars and public transport to well as the British Geological Survey. analyse feasibility of a new PT mode. TRG is working closely with the Hence, the main aims of this thesis are to Infrastructure Group at the University of (i) Analyse the feasibility of new PT Southampton. ACHILLES is focussed on technologies in mixed traffic long-linear assets that are critical to the environments with a dominance of PTWs; delivery of services over long distances and (ii) Identify the most cost-effective such as road and rail embankments and mixed transport system. cuttings, pipeline bedding and flood To achieve these aims, the research protection structures. TRG’s work will develops a comparative economic provide economic forecasting and assessment for comparing public decision support at the network level. transport technologies, Demand More specifically, a model of Whole Life Responsive Transit and private transport Costs of interventions is being developed for a local transport corridor. The and the social costs of service disruptions comparative economic assessment is examined. Risks and uncertainty will be integrated from four models: Social Cost considered using Monte Carlo Simulation within a Bayesian hierarchical structure. A Model, Incremental Elasticity Analysis fast track analysis of road and rail Model, Incremental Multinomial/Nested infrastructure on the London – Bristol Logit Model and Microscopic Simulation corridor is being undertaken. Model.

Comparative Economic Assessment of The completed assessment was applied Urban Transport Infrastructure to compare the existing mixed transport Options in Low- and Middle-Income situation and twelve transport Countries (PhD Studentship, from April infrastructure options with the introduction

of new PT technologies (Bus Rapid revenue required to fund the Transit, Elevated Metro and Monorail) scenarios presented, whilst identifying replacing the whole or part of the existing the impacts of this on all concerned; bus services; and with or without a 4. Make recommendations to congestion charge scheme for private Governments on transport transport on the chosen corridor in Hanoi, infrastructure funding requirements in terms of three criteria: average social and revenue raising options and cost, total general demand and PT share. implications, on the basis of this The results show that five options with research.

Bus Rapid Transit or Monorail can be Objectives 1 and 2 have been completed, feasible because of lower average social with research currently focussing on costs. In addition, the Monorail option objective 3. partially replacing the existing buses in conjunction with a congestion charge Modelling Land Use and Transport scheme might be the optimal alternative Evolution in Port Cities (PhD based on the three criteria above. studentship, from September 2016) Transport planners and decision makers Aditya Tafta Nugraha. Supervisors: Dr can draw on the findings of this thesis. B.J. Waterson, Dr S.P. Blainey.

Future Funding for Highways (part-time The urban morphology is a complex PhD from January 2014) Katherine system characterised by self-organisation Tegerdine. Supervisors: Dr I. Kaparias, where interactions of multiple agents Prof N.B. Hounsell, Dr S.P. Blainey. produce emerging patterns on the urban form. Additional complexities in port cities The overall aim of this research is to arise from the port-urban relationship devise and recommend one or more which could either benefit or cause practical and acceptable methods for tensions for each other. Most urban funding road transport in the UK, in the cellular automata (CA) models simulate short/medium term future, given progress land-use evolution through transition rules towards intelligent mobility and a low with consideration of multiple factors carbon transport system. More specific representing the local interactions. objectives to achieve this aim are to: Calibration of such models could be seen as a process to measure the effect of 1. Evaluate road transport scenarios up each factor. Due to the complexity of the to 2050, reflecting all important trends calibration process of urban land use and in traffic growth, vehicle composition transport interaction (LUTI) models based and characteristics, infrastructure on CA, manual methods are often changes, technological developments, preferred. This, however, limits the legislation, societal changes and so insights on urban interactions to a few on; explored settlements and in turn prevents 2. Analyse and understand the cost and applications for planning in other port- revenue implications of these road urban contexts. transport scenarios on Governments and road users; This research, therefore, sought to 3. Explore and develop new ways of improve the calibration method of LUTI funding transport infrastructure, models based on CA and contributed to a including new ways of raising the better understanding of the dynamics

between port and urban system by Coventry University, Human Factors quantifying generalizable interactions expertise is provided in the design and between urban agents from a wide range evaluation of these future flight deck of port-urban settlements. This research innovations. also illustrated how these interactions in a simulation model can allow long-term TASCC (Towards Autonomy - Smart impact predictions of planning and Connected Control): Human interventions. Interaction: Designing Autonomy in Vehicles (HI:DAV) (Jaguar Land Rover A paper of this research has been (JLR)/ EPSRC, April 2016 to April 2020). awarded the Smeed Prize at the UTSG Dr K.M.A. Revell, James Brown. Contract conference in 2020 for best student paper Holder: Prof N.A. Stanton and presentation. Cars that can drive themselves have been predicted for some time, but they 3.7 Human Factors are nearly with us. Highly automated vehicles are likely to be on public roads Open Flight Deck (OFD) (Innovate UK within the next ten years. The largest gap from March 2017 – March 2020) Dr K. in our understanding of vehicle Parnell, R.A. Wynne. Contract Holders: automation is how drivers will react to this Dr K.L. Plant. new technology and how best to design the driver-automation interaction. This Next generation civil aircraft require a project aimed to answer these questions step change in the capability of the flight by using Human Factors methodologies deck to deliver new operational scenarios to model driver behaviour for level 3 in a more transparent way. Flight deck semi-autonomous vehicles. It studied a technology will need to incorporate the wide range of drivers with different driving latest developments in computing experience in simulators, and in road platform, Human-Machine Interface going vehicles. (HMI), crew aids and pilot interaction technologies. The aim of the Open Flight During the course of the research the Deck project is to develop an open, Universities of Cambridge and accessible and standardised avionic Southampton worked closely with JLR platform for the flight deck which can engineers to ensure that the UK remains support the introduction of such at the forefront of technological innovation technologies, new software applications in vehicle automation. Experiments were and peripheral devices. With the flight carried out to identify how drivers react to crew remaining central to aircraft this new technology, and provide data on operations, the project also seeks to how best to design the driver-automation develop new crew aids that can both interaction. Following an iterative design optimise crew workload but also improve process, an HMI was developed to situational awareness to extend safe provide appropriate interactions and aircraft operations. Further it also seeks interfaces that support the driver. to integrate new and existing applications to add functionality, simplify the flight ComTET2b (Dstl from 2019-2020). Dr V. deck, reduce error potential and harness Banks, Dr J. Clark, D. Fay, K. Pope, S. big data opportunities. Working with GE Hart. Contract Holders: Prof N.A. Aviation, BAE Systems, Rolls Royce and Stanton, Dr K. Plant

The Command Team Experimental users communicate with each other in Testbed (ComTET) project is a body of cooperative situations to convey their work that aims to examine current and intentions. future ways of working in submarine control rooms. ComTET2b builds upon its Decision Making in Human Machine predecessors (ComTET1 and ComTET2) Teaming (funded by Thales, PhD from in providing evidence-based September 2020), Kirsty Lynch. recommendations from well-controlled Supervisors: Dr K.L. Plant, Dr V.A. Banks experimental studies to demonstrate the and Dr J. Downes. benefits and pitfalls of new team structures, allocation of system functions, Accountable decision-making has ways of working, communication media, become specific concern of Thales for interfaces, job aids and work design. The operators of Maritime Autonomous ComTET2b team continue to explore new Systems (MAS), as decision-making is a avenues of work including the key aspect in the safe operation of MAS investigation of optimal deployment, and the role of the operator has changed operation and utilisation of data derived significantly due to the introduction of an from unmanned underwater vehicles by autonomous system. This PhD project will command teams. explore accountable human decision making in human-machine teams, as Understanding Informal Rules of the there is a concern that humans could Road and Incorporating this adopt a position of ‘social loafing’ (leaving Knowledge into a Communication the machine to do all the work). System for Autonomous Vehicles (PhD Alternatively, they might do all the work Studentship from September 2020): Peter taking over from the machines at every Youssef. Supervisors: Dr B.J. Waterson, possibility due to lack of appropriate trust. Dr K. Plant. In an ideal situation, human-machine teams would lead to social facilitation, With autonomous vehicles (AVs) likely to whereby the performance of both humans be on our roads in the next few decades, and machines is optimized. In this drivers will become passengers in their instance, human operators will only take vehicles. As such, a growing area of control from machines when it is research has developed looking at how beneficial to do so. these vehicles will interact with human road users. This is due to concern that The template of accountable decision AVs will not have the capabilities to making will be used to derive principles properly communicate their intentions to for the design of human-machine teams other road users, with explicit and will include considerations such as communication techniques, such as eye task type, trust, workload, and situation contact and gestures, no longer a feasible awareness. An experimental environment option. A common school of thought to will be constructed to enable exploration remedy this problem, is to investigate of accountable decision making, in which how road users currently communicate the factors such as number of machine with each other, so that new Human- agents, task allocation and workload can Machine Interfaces (HMIs) can be better be manipulated to discover the effects on designed in order to replace the existing decision making. From the results of communication modes. As such, this PhD these experiments a set of design will begin by looking at how different guidelines for MAS decision support

systems will be developed for Thales to Most manual driver training programmes implement in their design process of are based on the IPSGA (Information, MAS, to support decision-making in Position, Speed, Gear and Acceleration) human-machine teams. system of vehicle control. However, as the nature of the driving task will change Training Implications for Drivers of when Automated Vehicles are introduced Automated Vehicles (funded by Institute onto the market (see above), a new driver of Advanced Motorists RoadSmart and training programme needs to be the Engineering and Physical Sciences developed. This PhD project will attempt Research Council, from September to address these issues by designing, 2019), Siobhan Merriman. Supervisors: developing, testing and validating a new Dr K.L. Plant, Dr K.M.A. Revell. training programme for drivers of Automated Vehicles. Automated Vehicles are expected to bring a huge number of benefits to society. Applying a Sociotechnical Systems These include improved safety (fewer Approach to Improve Cycling Road accidents and traffic law violations), Safety and Increase Cycling efficiency, and mobility on the road; Participation (funded by Southampton however, these benefits will only be University, from October 2018), Matthew realised if drivers are trained in how to Webster. Supervisors: Dr K.L. Plant, Prof use them. N.A. Stanton.

When AVs are introduced onto the Cycling provides many benefits, such as market, the driver’s role will change from increased physical health, a positive an active role of vehicle manoeuvring and contribution to the economy and control to a passive role of supervising reduction in air pollution. Despite this, and monitoring the vehicle and the road cycling still is involved in a constant battle environment and only intervening to be seen as a positive activity amongst (manually controlling the vehicle) when the media and non-cyclists and cyclists required (e.g. when the automation fails too. On top of this, a huge gender divide or reaches its limitations). However, the with the majority of cyclists being male research literature and recent AV creates a struggle to ensure that collisions suggest that these tasks are infrastructure is inclusive towards women. challenging for drivers to perform well. Furthermore, the low participation levels For example, in The United States of of younger children riding a bike to and America, there have been five high-profile from school within the UK is considerably collisions involving Automated Vehicles small when compared to the Netherlands and in the investigations that followed, the (2.5% vs 30%). Finally, the number of driver’s inattention to the driving task, the cycling accidents throughout Britain is road environment and the operation of worryingly high being around 18,477 in the vehicle, their lack of response to the 2016, this number made up around 8% of imminent collision and their complacency all modal accidents within the UK which, and over-reliance on the automation were when comparing the number of cyclists identified as significant causal factors. against vehicles, highlights a need for Therefore, driver training is required to change. ensure drivers have the appropriate skills to perform their role as a ‘co-driver’ of an This research begins to tackle cycling by Automated Vehicle. treating it as a system and taking a

sociotechnical approach, by researching occurring during the semi-automated into social (News, Social media, driving, as well as the circadian effect on Neighbourhoods, Peoples views), semi-automated driving and driver state technical (legislation, economic, monitoring. Methods: fifty-two participants accessibility), hardware (Signs, potholes, were recruited to the experiment on semi- roads, cycle lanes, theft/safety) and automated driving. They participated in organisational (Government, Council, two experimental sessions day-time Schools, Emergency Services) features session (9 a.m.- 1 p.m.) and a night-time of cycling to create a safer cycling Britain session (10 p.m.- 2 a.m.). They went and increase participation across all through the experimental scenario levels of cycling, ages, and gender. simulating semi-automated driving with phases of manual driving, automated In time this research hopes to join forces phase, take-over and manual driving. with other organisations such as British During the experiment their cycling, local governments and high- psychophysiological functions were profile company’s and public figures recorded with following measures: involved within cycling to allow a stronger electrooculography, electromyography, reach and implementation of interventions electrocardiography, respiration belt, to be tested and improved to allow them electrodermal activity device, oximetry for to be as effective as possible and provide the pulse and blood oxygenation, their a strong set of recommendations that can voice was recorded for the acoustic voice ultimately be used and applied within the analysis, saliva was collected for the UK. hormonal analysis, and four questionnaires were collected at different Ready to Take Back Control – stages of the experiment. Additionally, Assessing the Optimal Way to Monitor electroencephalography was recorded; Driver States Using a Variety of however, its’ analysis was not included in Cognitive and Psycho-physiological this dissertation. Results: two predictive Methods (funded by Jaguar Land Rover, models were proposed to predict PhD studentship from October 2017) performance after take-over and attention Sylwia Kaduk. Supervisors: Prof N.A. during automation. Analysis of the time- Stanton, Dr A. Roberts. course of the semi-automated driving suggested a decrease of the driving Automation offers the potential to mitigate performance after automation associated or reduce the risks related to driving. with increased sleepiness, increased However, there are also some new fatigue, decreased readiness to take-over challenges for drivers related to and decreased mental workload. Some semi‐automated driving. Two phases of physiological changes suggested mental semi-automated driving that raised underload. Comparison of the circadian concerns of the researchers were a phases resulted in multiple physiological, period of automation that requires a behavioural and cognitive changes. monitoring activity from the driver and the Conclusions: physiology can be used to take-over of manual control following the predict the driver’s performance in semi- automated mode. Topic: the aim of this automated vehicles; however, the doctoral dissertation was to propose proposed models are not ready to be models of the driver state monitoring in implemented in the cars. Automation semi-automated vehicles and present creates a risk for driving safety due to data on the psychophysiological changes mental underload. Sleepiness and fatigue

present the largest risk for automation academic settings, whilst developing our monitoring, while suboptimal mental understanding of how natural workload and arousal for the safety of the communication can be applied to take-over. Circadian phase affects the technology. psychophysiology and performance of the driver; however, the direction of the Optimising Steering Wheel Based effects requires further investigation. Controls in Motorsport (PhD (part-time) from October 2017). James W H Brown. Designing Interactions in Automated Supervisors: Prof N.A. Stanton, Dr K.M.A. Vehicles: The Application of Revell. Communicative Concepts to Generate Novel Solutions (funded by Jaguar Land The interfaces of cars within the higher Rover as part of the TASCC: Hi:DAV echelons of motorsport are highly project, PhD studentship, from January complex as a result of the need to be able 2017) Jediah Clark. Supervisors: Prof to maximise performance. However, N.A. Stanton, Dr K.M.A. Revell. there are multiple known instances of driver errors occurring, costing them time In automated vehicles that require a and, in some cases, loss of control of the human driver to be present, the transition vehicle, due to interface design issues. of control (whether planned or unplanned) Motorsport is both high-risk and high-cost marks a profound vulnerability in the and drivers are frequently exposed to driving-system. As drivers remain ‘out-of- high cognitive and physical workloads. the-loop’ for an extended period, issues This combination of factors represents a such as loss of ‘situation awareness’ may significant challenge in terms of interface occur. Virtual assistants have been design. Identifying and prioritising the proposed as a solution to such issues. primary usability aspects relevant to However, how and what to present to the racing drivers aids the definition of the driver during these transitions remains unique problem domain. The subsequent unclear, and issues such as safety, application of Human Factors methods to usability and user-trust must be the specific area of steering wheel-based considered. This PhD project concluded controls aims to optimise control in July 2020 and provides novel user- locations, attributes and layouts. This interaction solutions that address these project hopes to generate a hybridised issues through iteratively generating methodology for the creation of idealised design concepts and testing them interface designs within motorsport. The experimentally. By doing so, a well- production of prototype steering wheels considered and refined design has been based on the methodology’s outputs provided to facilitate the transfer of allows experimental testing and control between human and automation validation. The project output should during automated driving. Further, several additionally provide insight into the design recommendations are provided generic design of complex interfaces in such as what information should be high risk/high cognitive load scenarios. transmitted, how the user can gain access to more information and how can Alternative Safety Management the interaction be physically designed. Techniques for Air Traffic Management The project aims to assist in the design (funded by NATS, PhD from September process for modern automated vehicle 2017). Craig Foster. Supervisors: Dr K.L. user-interaction in both industrial and Plant, Prof N.A. Stanton.

safety. The PhD is expected to explore Air Traffic Management (ATM) exists to and contribute to research in this area support the safe and expeditious flow of and bridge the gap between grounded aircraft through the world’s airspace. safety theory for complex socio-technical However, safety in ATM presents unique systems and novel techniques for challenges due to it being a complex and understanding data generated by humans highly coupled socio-technical system of adapting whilst doing work in safety- systems. Despite this, ATM has achieved related domains. an ultra-safe level of performance. However, ATM is undergoing Maritime Command and Control unprecedented change and a number of Human-Machine Interaction (sponsored new challenges face the industry. New by DSTL and BAE Systems, PhD (part- regulations and regulators, new time) from 2014). Daniel Fay. technologies, changing roles for the Supervisors: Prof. N.A. Stanton, Dr A. human, the desire to reduce the Roberts. environmental impact of air travel and a demand for further cost efficiencies and Future maritime control rooms will be commercialisation could all affect the tasked with handling increased data with ATM industry’s commitment to safety. potentially less crew. User interfaces Against this backdrop, ATM needs to have evolved to meet current ensure that how safety is understood and requirements, but this iterative process managed remains appropriate and safety has propagated legacy design paradigms data continues to deliver information that may be unsuitable for future about how safe the operation is and requirements. A new design paradigm for provide an alert to changing risks to user interfaces may be required to inform action. This PhD examines the maintain effective performance. challenges that arise from the way safety Ecological Interface Design (EID) is being is currently thought about in ATM and explored as a theory-based approach to considers recent advances in safety design new interfaces. Novel user science as providing an alternative interfaces will be designed and tested to approach which focusses on successfully assess their applicability for future harnessing the adaptations present within maritime command and control. complex socio-technical systems. A review of the safety literature identifies a The Problem of emergence in need to further elaborate how Sociotechnical Systems: Exploring organisations are to practically apply Individual and Group Dynamic Risk these emerging ideas within the context Analysis (DRA) in a Military Diving of an industry which is characterised by Fatality (Funded by the Royal Navy, PhD standardisation, procedures and from January 2018) Mark Sanderson. regulation. Supervisors: Prof N.A. Stanton, Dr K.L. Plant Whilst the introduction of new technology presents challenges to safety it also Workplace safety risk management presents an opportunity to marry this utilises both static and dynamic alternative safety management approach methodologies. While the former is with the use of data generated from the conducted prior to an event or activity, the delivery of the ATM service to better latter is customarily performed live and in understand the adaptations that produce the moment. Where the preparatory risk

assessment is routinely completed by the Ultimately, it is important not to perceive management or organisational the DRA factors as just another set of specialists, the onus for dynamic risk rules to be applied. Rather, they analysis rests predominantly with the complement existing safety management worker undertaking the activity. Previous systems and represent considerations to research identified seven factors common be used when analysing dynamic risk. to DRA and subsequently established a network model. These factors have now been applied to a recent UK military diving fatality through a deductive thematic analysis. Although the post- mortem attributed the cause of death to an undiagnosed heart anomaly, the case illustrates the necessity for DRA in even the most well prepared of activities. The case shows how and where the knowledge of the DRA factors could have helped in coping with the emergent risks. It also offers wider utility and reveals how they could also be used in considering risk in advance of an activity or when reviewing events post-incident.

4. TRANSPORTATION 6. Banks, V, Plant, K & Stanton, N 2020, RESEARCH GROUP Leaps and shunts: designing pilot PUBLICATIONS 2020 decision aids on the flight deck using Rasmussen’s ladder. in R Charles & D Golightly (eds), Contemporary 1. Allen, J, Piecyk, M, Cherrett, T, Ergonomics and Human Factors Mcleod, F, Oakey, A, Piotrowska, M, 2020. CIEHF. Bates, O, Bektas, T, Wise, S, 7. Blainey, S & Blainey, D 2020, How Cheliotis, K & Friday, A 2020, can long distance bus services be 'Combining on-foot porters with vans improved and developed as part of a for last-mile parcel deliveries: results national transport network. in 18th of a study in central London', World Annual Transport Practitioners Review of Intermodal Transportation Meeting, 2-3/09/20. Research. 8. Brown, J, Stanton, N & Revell, K 2. Allison, C & Stanton, N 2020, 'Ideation 2020, 'Usability assessment of using the “Design with Intent” toolkit: a steering wheel control interfaces in case study applying a design toolkit to motorsport', Automotive Innovation, support creativity in developing vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 42-52. vehicle interfaces for fuel-efficient https://doi.org/10.1007/s42154-020- driving', Applied Ergonomics, vol. 84, 00088-z 103026, pp. 1-11. 9. Brown, JWH, Revell, KMA, Stanton, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apergo.2019. NA 2019, ‘Software analysis of racing 103026 drivers’ interfaces using Link Analysis 3. Almujibah, H., Kaduk, S., & Preston, and Fitts’ Law’. Chartered Institute of J. (2020). Hyperloop – prediction of Ergonomics and Human Factors social and physiological costs. Conference 2019. Transportation Systems And 10. Brown, JWH, Revell, KMA, Stanton, Technology, 6(3), 43-59. doi: NA 2019, ‘Quantifying mental 10.17816/transsyst20206343-59 workload in performance driving: The 4. Armstrong J, Rempelos G, Wei J, motor racing load index (MRLIN).’ Preston J, Blainey S, Easton J & Chartered Institute of Ergonomics and Roberts C (2020), ‘Developing a Human Factors Conference 2020. Generalised Assessment Framework 11. Brown, JWH, Revell, KMA, Stanton, for Railway Interventions’, WIT NA 2020, ‘The Evolution of Steering Transactions on the Built Wheel Design in Motorsport.’ Human Environment, 199:127-138. Factors and Ergonomics in Sport – 5. Banks, V, Allison, C, Plant, K, Parnell, Applications and Future Directions. K & Stanton, N 2020, 'Using the Salmon et al. 2021. CRC Press, Boca Perceptual Cycle Model and Schema Raton. World Action Research Method to 12. Caset, F, Blainey, SP, Derudder, B, generate design requirements for new Boussauw, B & Witlox, F 2020, avionic systems', Human Factors and 'Integrating node-place and trip end Ergonomics in Manufacturing and models to explore drivers of rail Service ridership in Flanders, Industries. Geography, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.202 0.102796

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