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Bell Road Corridor Market Feasibility Report

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Bell Road Corridor Market Feasibility Report MARKET RECONNAISSANCE AND STRATEGIC POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE BELL ROAD CORRIDOR To CITY OF SCOTTSDALE From GRUEN GRUEN + ASSOCIATES Urban Economists, Market Strategists & Land Use/Public Policy Analysts May 2015 C1415 MARKET RECONNAISSANCE AND STRATEGIC POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE BELL ROAD CORRIDOR To CITY OF SCOTTSDALE From GRUEN GRUEN + ASSOCIATES Urban Economists, Market Strategists & Land Use/Public Policy Analysts May 2015 C1415 ©2015 Gruen Gruen + Associates. Do not reproduce without written permission from Gruen Gruen + Associates. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS While the authors take 100 percent responsibility for the content and conclusions of the study, the report could not have been prepared without the assistance of many others. It is not possible to cite all of those who have offered data and insights but we would like to thank the City of Scottsdale staff and the following individuals which provided data and participated in interviews. Individuals Bryan Babits, Weingarten Tooraj Bakhtiari, Senior Commercial Specialist, RE/MAX Commercial Bill Blake, Lee & Associates John Bridger Executive Director, The Thunderbird Organization Suzanne Brown, Director of Community & Government Affairs, Scottsdale Area Association of Realtors Nickolas Cardinale, General Manager, Barrett-Jackson Irene Catsibris Clary, Catclar Investments John Coulter, Desert Troon Companies Mark Edelman, Planning and Engineering Section Manager, Arizona State Land Department Dan Farley, Owner/Designated Broker, Responsive Realty Michael Fee, Community Manager, Grayhawk Ranch HOA Eric Gerster, Windgate Ranch HOA Pam Gilbert, Director of Sales and Marketing at Fairmont Hotels and Resorts Jim Gmelich, Principal Notre Dame Preparatory High School Mike Gonzales, McDowell Mountain Ranch HOA Rebecca Grossman, President/CEO, Scottsdale Area Association of Realtors Glenn Guenther, YAM Management, LLC Vanessa Hickman, Faculty Associate, Master of Real Estate Development, Arizona State University Craig Jackson, Chairman and CEO, Barrett-Jackson Mick Kallo, Senior Vice President, Nautilus Insurance Rick Kidder, President and CEO, Scottsdale Chamber of Commerce Tom Knoell, Desert Troon Companies Brad Larsen, Senior Siting Consultant, APS Adam Madison, Cushman & Wakefield Billy Malkovich, Vice President of Real Estate, Great Hearts Academy Michael Martindale, CRA Dennis May, Owner Occupant, McDowell Mountain Business Park Greg Mayer, Cushman & Wakefield Gerard Mauvis, Director of Operations, Fairmont Scottsdale Princess Casey McDonald, Site & Operations Director, Barrett-Jackson Michelle Pabis, Senior Network Director, Government and Public Affairs, HonorHealth Racheal Pearson, Vice President of Community & Government Affairs, Scottsdale Convention & Visitors Bureau Gary Roe, Roe Associates Planning, Inc. Jason Rose, Rose+Moser+Allyn Public Relations John Quatrini, Vice President, Shell Commercial Tom Sadvary, CEO of Honor Health Monica Spivey, Vice President Finance & Accounting, Nautilus Insurance - 1 - ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS, Continued Mark Stapp, Executive Director of the Masters of Real Estate Development, W.P. Carrey School of Business, Arizona State University Tyler Strathman, Director of Hotel Operations, Marriott International Amanda Sue Piltz, Director of Communications & Technology, Scottsdale Area Association of Realtors Bryan Taute, CBRE Fred Unger, Spring Creek Development Individuals Todd Vesledahl, CRA Michael Woolington, General Manager, McDowell Mountain Ranch Community Association Terry Worcester, Director of Facilities and Operations, Scottsdale Unified School District City of Scottsdale Staff Fritz Behring, City Manager, City Manager’s Office Jan Cameron, Parks and Recreation Director, Parks and Recreation Danielle Casey, Economic Development Director, Economic Development C. Ashley Couch, Stormwater Management Director, Stormwater Management Tim Curtis, Current Planning Director, Planning and Development Services Brian Dygert, General Manager, WestWorld Derek Earle, City Engineer, Public Works Laurel Edgar, Real Estate Management Specialist, Public Works Kroy Ekblaw, Strategic Projects & City Liaison for ASLD Jim Ford, Deputy Chief of Fire & Life Safety, Fire Dept. Steven Geiogamah, Interim Tourism Development Director, Tourism and Events Dept. Randy Grant, Director, Planning & Development Services Lee Guillory, Finance Director, Finance Dept. Phil Kercher, Traffic Engineer and Operations Manager, Transportation Doug Mann, Principal Engineer, Water Resources Larry Marmie Jr., Watch Commander, Police Department Bill Murphy, Executive Director, Community Services Erin Perreault, Long Range Planning Manager, Planning and Development Services Taylor Reynolds, Planner, Planning and Development Services Bob Tunis, Economic Development Manager, Economic Development Steve Venker, PNT Manager, Planning and Development Services Martha West, Senior Real Estate Manager, Public Works Dept. Dan Worth, Executive Director, Public Works Adam Yaron, Senior Planner, Planning and Development Services - 2 - City of Scottsdale Mayor and City Council Mayor W.J. “Jim” Lane Suzanne Klapp Virginia Korte Kathy Littlefield Vice Mayor Linda Milhaven Guy Phillips David N. Smith - 3 - TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY, GOALS AND OBJECTIVES, AND RECOMMENDATIONS 1 INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE ...................................................................................................................... 1 GOALS AND OBJECTIVES .................................................................................................................................... 3 FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS ........................................................................................................................ 3 Land Summary ............................................................................................................................................................... 3 Employment and Business Establishment Trends ................................................................................................... 3 Land Use Trends ............................................................................................................................................................ 4 Office Market ................................................................................................................................................................. 4 The Demand for Office Space .................................................................................................................................... 5 Industrial Market ............................................................................................................................................................ 6 Primary Geographic Markets for Industrial Space ................................................................................................... 7 Taxable Sales Trends ..................................................................................................................................................... 7 Retail Market ................................................................................................................................................................... 7 Hotel/Tourism Market ................................................................................................................................................. 9 Multi-Family Market .................................................................................................................................................... 10 DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS TO STUDY FURTHER FOR CITY-OWNED PROPERTIES ......... 12 Economic Development Recommendations .......................................................................................................... 14 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FURTHER EVALUATION, PROGRAMMING, CRITERIA TO USE TO ASSESS SCENARIOS AND TEST MARKETING OF OPTIONS ....................................................... 16 CHAPTER II: INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE .............................................................................................. 18 INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE .................................................................................................................... 18 STUDY AREA ............................................................................................................................................................ 18 WORK COMPLETED .............................................................................................................................................. 19 REPORT ORGANIZATION .................................................................................................................................. 21 CHAPTER III: THE STRUCTURE OF THE EMPLOYMENT BASE OF THE BELL ROAD CORRIDOR AND COMPARISON TO CITY OF SCOTTSDALE AS A WHOLE AND LABOR FORCE CHARACTERISTICS AND COMMUTATION PATTERNS .............................................................................. 23 LABOR FORCE CHARACTERISTICS AND COMMUTATION PATTERNS ........................................ 28 CHAPTER IV: COMPOSITION OF LAND USE AND BUILDING SPACE INVENTORY WITHIN BELL ROAD CORRIDOR ........................................................................................................................................... 33 LAND SUPPLY .......................................................................................................................................................... 33 SUPPLY OF BUILDING SPACE .........................................................................................................................
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