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NPS Proceedings of the 14Th Annual Acquisition Research SYM-AM-17-34 Proceedings of the Fourteenth Annual Acquisition Research Symposium Wednesday Sessions Volume I Acquisition Research: Creating Synergy for Informed Change April 26–27, 2017 Published March 31, 2017 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Prepared for the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA 93943. Acquisition Research Program Graduate School of Business & Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School The research presented in this report was supported by the Acquisition Research Program of the Graduate School of Business & Public Policy at the Naval Postgraduate School. To request defense acquisition research, to become a research sponsor, or to print additional copies of reports, please contact any of the staff listed on the Acquisition Research Program website (www.acquisitionresearch.net). Acquisition Research Program Graduate School of Business & Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School Table of Contents Keynote: Vice Admiral David C. Johnson, USN—Principal Military Deputy, Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Research, Development and Acquisition .. 1 Plenary Panel: The 809 Panel. Reviewing the Regulatory and Legislative Framework to Improve the Efficiency and Effectiveness of Defense Acquisition ................................................................................................................................... 3 Panel 2. Maximizing Contracting Effectiveness .................................................... 5 Analyzing the Effects of Source Selection Method, Acquisition Type, and Service Component on Acquisition Outcomes .................................................................... 7 Data Consolidation of Disparate Procurement Data Sources for Correlated Performance-Based Acquisition Decision Support ............................................... 23 Customizing the Use of TINA (Truth in Negotiations Act) in the DoD ................... 40 Panel 3. Improving DoD Software Design and Sustainment .............................. 55 The Policies and Economics of Software Sustainment: DoD's Software Sustainment Ecosystem ....................................................................................... 56 Software Vulnerabilities, Defects, and Design Flaws: A Technical Debt Perspective .......................................................................................................... 67 Applying the Fundamentals of Quality to Software Acquisition ............................ 76 Panel 4. Defense Acquisition After Shocks to the System ................................ 85 Post–Milestone B Funding Climate and Cost Growth in Major Defense Acquisition Programs .............................................................................................................. 86 Measuring the Impact of Sequestration and the Defense Drawdown on the Industrial Base...................................................................................................... 98 Panel 5. Contemporary Issues in Contracting................................................... 119 Overseas Contingency Operations Contracts After Iraq: Enabling Financial Management Research and Transparency Through Contract Labeling ............. 120 Use of Incentives in Performance-Based Logistics Contracting: Initial Findings 139 Price Analysis on Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) Contracts ........................... 158 Panel 6. Enabling Technology Transition .......................................................... 179 Accelerating Innovation—From S&T Labs to Acquisition Programs ................... 180 Effectively Implementing Policies That Mandate the Use of Technology—A Grounded Theory Study ..................................................................................... 189 CREATE: Accelerating Defense Innovation With Computational Prototypes and High Performance Computers ............................................................................ 218 Panel 7. Evolving Cost Estimating Methodology .............................................. 239 Empirical Cost Estimation Tool (PMS 320) ........................................................ 240 Acquisition Research Program: Creating Synergy for Informed Change - iii - Estimating the Estimate: Toward a Quick and Inexpensive Method for Weapons System Cost Estimation ..................................................................................... 263 Determining the Value of a Prototype ................................................................. 274 Panel 8. Cultivating the Future Acquisition Workforce .................................... 287 Army Contracting Workforce Organizational Climate Assessment ..................... 289 Understanding Defense Acquisition Workforce Challenges ............................... 298 2016 Assessment of the Civilian Acquisition Workforce Personnel Demonstration Project ................................................................................................................ 312 Panel 9. Enabling Cybersecurity ........................................................................ 315 Cybersecure Modular Open Architecture Software Systems for Stimulating Innovation ........................................................................................................... 316 Security Measurement—Establishing Confidence That System and Software Security Is Sufficient ........................................................................................... 335 Decision Support for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment ........................................ 343 Panel 10. Thoughts on Management of Complex Systems Acquisition ......... 351 A Systems Theoretic-Based Framework to Discover Pathologies in Acquisition System Governance ........................................................................................... 352 Optimal Selection of Organizational Structuring for Complex Systems Development and Acquisitions ........................................................................... 377 A Systems Complexity-Based Assessment of Risk in Acquisition and Development Programs ...................................................................................... 396 Acquisition Research Program: Creating Synergy for Informed Change - iv - SYM-AM-17-034 Proceedings Of the Fourteenth Annual Acquisition Research Symposium Wednesday Sessions Volume I Acquisition Research: Creating Synergy for Informed Change April 26–27, 2017 Published March 31, 2017 Disclaimer: The views represented in this report are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy position of the Navy, the Department of Defense, or the federal government. Acquisition Research Program: Creating Synergy for Informed Change - v - THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Acquisition Research Program: Creating Synergy for Informed Change - vi - Keynote: Vice Admiral David C. Johnson, USN— Principal Military Deputy, Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Research, Development and Acquisition Vice Admiral David C. Johnson, USN—the son of a Navy captain and a Pensacola, FL, native, graduated from the U.S. Naval Academy in 1982 with a Bachelor of Science in Aerospace Engineering. Upon commissioning, Johnson reported to Trident Refit Facility in Bangor, WA, where he served as docking officer, qualified as ship superintendent at Puget Sound Naval Shipyard, and earned his engineering duty dolphins. Johnson graduated from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1989 with a naval engineer degree and a Master of Science in mechanical engineering. Subsequently, Johnson held submarine acquisition and repair positions at the Supervisor of Shipbuilding in Groton, CT; as a waterfront coordinator delivering Ohio-class submarines and later as the program manager’s representative for the Virginia-class submarine; at Trident Refit Facility Bangor as the planning officer; and at Program Executive Officer (PEO) Submarines as the assistant program manager for USS Jimmy Carter (SSN 23). Johnson became major program manager for the Virginia Program Office (PMS 450) in 2005. Under his guidance, the Virginia program reduced overall cost by $4 billion and delivered four submarines to the fleet. The program was awarded the 2007 DoD Value Engineering Award and the 2008 David A. Packard Award for Acquisition Excellence. Johnson also established and served as the first Undersea Enterprise chief technology officer. Johnson’s flag tours include PEO Submarines, deputy commander for Undersea Technology (SEA 073), deputy PEO Submarines for the Ohio SSBN Replacement Program, and commander for the Naval Undersea Warfare Center. In October 2015, he assumed responsibilities as principal military deputy for the Assistant Secretary of the Navy Research, Development, & Acquisition. Johnson has received various personal and campaign awards, including the Defense Service Medal, Legion of Merit, and the Meritorious Service Medal with three gold stars. Acquisition Research Program: Creating Synergy for Informed Change - 1 - THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Acquisition Research Program: Creating Synergy for Informed Change - 2 - Plenary Panel: The 809 Panel. Reviewing the Regulatory and Legislative Framework to Improve the Efficiency and Effectiveness of Defense Acquisition Wednesday, April 26, 2017 9:30 a.m. – Chair: Moshe Schwartz, Executive Director, 809 Panel 11:00 a.m. Current Research Agenda for the 809 Panel and Initial Findings William A. LaPlante, Vice President, Intelligence Portfolio, National Security Engineering Center Future Research Agenda Joseph W. Dyer, VADM, USN (Ret.),
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