Lancashire County Council’s Proposals for a new pattern of Electoral Divisions: Submission to the LGBCE Lancashire County Council Proposed Arrangements for Electoral Divisions Introduction The Council made a submission to the Boundary Commission for a Council size of 84 councillors on 22 May 2015. The Commission accepted the submission as the basis for the stage one public consultation on the pattern of electoral divisions. This report contains Lancashire County Council’s (LCC) proposals for division arrangements within the administrative boundaries of the twelve city/district/borough councils, the proposed names for the divisions and the number of Councillors per division. Prior to the consultation process polling district electorate data, for June 2015, was collated from district councils and projected to 2021. Projections are based on a combination of Office for National Statistics population projections for the adult population and data on additional housing up until 2021. The latter was requested from district councils. Table 1 shows that the 2021 electorate across Lancashire is projected to be 930,978 adults. With 84 councillors, the average electorate per councillor will be 11,083 adults. This was accepted by the Boundary Commission. Table 1 2021 projected Lancashire electorate 2021 Number of Average electorate projected councillors per councillor electorate Lancashire 930,978 84 11,083 Summary of council size by district Analysis indicates that based on a council size of 84 the divisional pattern by district to achieve the best electoral equality possible is as set out in Table 2. Based on this analysis, the number of councillors will change in Chorley and Preston. Although in the remaining districts the number of councillors will not change, the boundaries of existing divisions still needed to be reviewed and changed where an individual division's electorate is projected by 2021 to be more than 10% greater or smaller than the county average. Any such changes may in turn impact upon other divisions within a district. This submission sets out, on a district by district basis, proposed changes to electoral divisions across Lancashire and the reasons behind each proposal. 2 Table 2 Breakdown of councillors by district Number of District % Number of electors per variance electors per Difference division by from Number of division by to existing 2021 – Lancashire councillors 2021 - number Difference average District from County electorate in average average 2021 Burnley 6 = 10,904 - 179 -1.62 Chorley 8 +1 10,811 -272 -2.46 Fylde 6 = 11,327 +244 2.20 Hyndburn 6 = 10,200 -883 -7.97 Lancaster 10 = 10,697 -386 -3.49 Pendle 6 = 11,626 +542 4.89 Preston 9 -1 11,343 +260 2.35 Ribble Valley 4 = 12,074 +991 8.94 Rossendale 5 = 11,154 +71 0.64 South Ribble 8 = 11,614 +531 4.79 West 8 = 10,955 -128 -1.16 Lancashire Wyre 8 = 10,811 -272 -2.46 Division Arrangements and Community Identities Lancashire County Council has taken into account the Boundary Commission’s technical guidance when reviewing the division arrangements and making these submissions. The Council has been particularly mindful of the three statutory criteria of Electoral Equality, Community Identity and Effective and Convenient Local Government when putting forward its proposals. Whilst the Council has a general preference for single member divisions, it does accept that in certain circumstances a dual member division may be the preferred choice in meeting the three statutory criteria as it may improve co-terminosity and address more effectively community identity. The Council’s proposals do include a small number of dual member divisions that it believes will work effectively and achieve a better fit in meeting the statutory criteria than single divisions. The geographical and demographic layout of Lancashire lends itself to this proposal due to the combination of rural, less densely populated areas and urban, more highly populated areas. The proposed dual member divisions are in Hyndburn and Ribble Valley (2nd preference). 3 For Chorley district, the Council supports the Chorley Borough Council options as set out in this submission as this has cross party support on the Borough Council. Chorley moves from a 7 divisional district to an 8. The Council has also proposed that the status quo in the district of Fylde is maintained. Whilst it acknowledges that one of the divisions is slightly over the 10% variance from the county average electorate figure of 11083, it believes that there is strong evidence regarding community identity to support this proposition. However, if the Commission is not persuaded by this argument we request that the Commission considers the alternative proposal that fully meets the electoral equality criteria. The proposal for Hyndburn district meets the statutory criteria and includes a proposal for a 2 member division. The Pendle district proposal includes a new division called Barnoldswick and Earby that has a variance of 11.7%. This proposal is based on strong evidence regarding community identity. Under the proposals Preston City moves from a 10 divisional district to a 9. The current divisional pattern in Ribble Valley includes Clitheroe that is a 'doughnut'. Clitheroe is a pretty much self-contained town. The County Council proposal removes the 'doughnut' but the new division has a variance of +13.7%. However this division has a very strong community identity. If the Commission are not minded to agree this option then we have submitted a second preference that meets the statutory criteria but includes a two member division. The rationale for all the County Council divisional proposals is set out below. Also attached to this submission are the accompanying maps to the proposals and associated pro formas detailing a breakdown of the forecast electorate for each proposed division. 4 Proposed Arrangements for Electoral Divisions Burnley Of the current six divisions, one (Burnley North East) is projected to be -10% by 2021. In electorate numbers this is -1,117 under the county average. This division borders Burnley Central East, which happens to be projected to be +4% by 2021 (459 electors). In this proposal, one polling district (named ED) is moved into Burnley North East from Burnley Central East. This polling district is one of four in Bank Hall ward. The move results in two polling districts from the ward being in each of these two divisions. The remaining four divisions would be unchanged. Burnley proposal – divisions by 2021 (Map 1) Division name Number of cllrs Electorate Variance per division June 2021 2021 Burnley Central East 1 11,073 -0.1% Burnley Central West 1 10,773 -2.8% Burnley North East 1 10,435 -5.8% Burnley Rural 1 11,278 1.8% Burnley South West 1 11,327 2.2% Padiham and Burnley West 1 10,535 -4.9% A map of the County Council proposal for Burley is attached as Map 1. No divisional name changes are proposed. Chorley There are currently seven divisions in Chorley. Recent extensive population growth has seen the district electorate increase significantly, making it imperative that the number of divisions increases to eight. With 7 divisions Chorley's average electorate by 2021 would be 12,355, an average variance of +11.5%, but with 8 divisions the average electorate would be 10,811, an average variance of -2.5%. The best fit option is to raise the number of divisions to 8. Of the existing seven, three are projected to be much too big by 2021. These are Chorley North (projected to be +37%), Chorley West (+20%) and Chorley Rural East (+19%). Others are within the 10% parameters but Chorley East is projected to be - 8%. The County Council supports the two proposals submitted by Chorley Borough Council. These options have all party agreement in Chorley. Narrative from Chorley Borough Council supporting their proposals is attached as annex 1. Both proposals do contain one division that is just outside the 10% parameter (-10.4%). 5 Chorley Proposal 1 – divisions by 2021 (Map2) Division name Number of cllrs Electorate Variance per division June 2021 2021 Chorley Central 1 10,299 -7.1% Chorley North 1 10,198 -8.0% Chorley Rural East 1 9,928 -10.4% Chorley Rural West 1 11,805 6.5% Chorley South 1 11,375 2.6% Clayton with Whittle 1 10,859 -2.0% Euxton with Buckshaw 1 11,781 6.3% Hoghton with Wheelton 1 10,242 -7.6% Chorley Proposal 2 – divisions by 2021 (Map 3) Division name Number of cllrs Electorate Variance per division June 2021 2021 Chorley East 1 10,198 -8.0% Chorley North 1 10,859 -2.0% Chorley North West 1 11,781 6.3% Chorley Rural East 1 9,928 -10.4% Chorley Rural North 1 10,242 -7.6% Chorley Rural West 1 10,766 -2.9% Chorley South 1 10,737 -3.1% Chorley West 1 11,976 8.1% Maps of the proposals for Chorley are attached as Map 2 and 3. Fylde There are currently six divisions and it is not necessary to change this. Of the six existing divisions Fylde South is projected to be -11% by 2021 and Fylde East is projected to be +10%. These two divisions border each other. The County Council propose to retain the status quo in this district (proposal 1). Although it results in one division being just outside the 10% parameter, the status quo option is preferred as the alternative proposal involves splitting Newton with Clifton parish, which has a strong community identify and the two parts of the parish share key community resources, including a primary school and village hall. The County Council also received representations from the Parish Council of Newton- With-Clifton strongly supporting the status quo option.