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Beyond Kyoto Advancing the International Effort Against Climate Change policy+ + Beyond Kyoto Advancing the international effort against climate change Joseph E. Aldy + John Ashton Richard Baron Daniel Bodansky Steve Charnovitz Elliot Diringer Thomas C. Heller Jonathan Pershing + P.R. Shukla Laurence Tubiana Fernando Tudela Xueman Wang Beyond Kyoto Advancing the international effort against climate change Prepared for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change by Joseph E. Aldy Thomas C. Heller HARVARD UNIVERSITY STANFORD UNIVERSITY John Ashton Jonathan Pershing LEAD INTERNATIONAL WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE Richard Baron P.R. Shukla INSTITUT DU DÉVELOPPEMENT DURABLE INDIAN INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT ET DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES Laurence Tubiana Daniel Bodansky INSTITUT DU DÉVELOPPEMENT DURABLE UNIVERSITY OF GEORGIA ET DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES Steve Charnovitz Fernando Tudela WILMER,CUTLER & PICKERING EL COLEGIO DE MÉXICO Elliot Diringer Xueman Wang PEW CENTER ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT LAW December 2003 Contents Foreword ii Acknowledgements iii Overview: Climate Crossroads 1 Elliot Diringer A Long-Term Target: Framing the Climate Effort 11 Jonathan Pershing and Fernando Tudela Climate Commitments: Assessing the Options 37 Daniel Bodansky Equity and Climate: In Principle and Practice 61 John Ashton and Xueman Wang + Addressing Cost: The Political Economy of Climate Change 85 Joseph E. Aldy, Richard Baron, and Laurence Tubiana Development and Climate: Engaging Developing Countries 111 Thomas C. Heller and P.R. Shukla Trade and Climate: Potential Conflicts and Synergies 141 Steve Charnovitz + i Advancing the international effort + Foreword Eileen Claussen, President, Pew Center on Global Climate Change Our success in confronting the challenge of global climate change depends in large measure on the ability of national governments to forge an effective global strategy—one that is environmentally sound, fair, and affordable. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol represent important steps in that direction. Yet whether or not the Protocol enters into force, the same fundamental challenge remains: engaging all countries that are major emitters of greenhouse gases in a common long-term effort. We need a durable strategy that can take us beyond Kyoto. This Pew Center report looks at core issues in crafting such a strategy. It represents the combined efforts of a dozen authors plus extensive input from policymakers, experts, and stakeholders who commented on drafts or participated in workshops in China, Germany, and Mexico. The six “think pieces” in this volume do not draw definitive conclusions about the best way forward; those can come only through further analysis and dialogue. Yet there do emerge from the papers, and from the discus- sions around them, some common themes and insights. First is the realization that while the climate challenge is ultimately one of mobilizing technology, it is in the first instance one of mustering political will. This depends in part on the resourcefulness of governments in fashioning common approaches. It also means not allowing scientific and economic + uncertainties to obscure the urgent need for action. Indeed the analyses here conclude that, to the contrary, uncertainty is itself a reason to act now. Second, there is no getting around national interest. Climate change is a common challenge, but countries will engage in collective action only if they perceive it to be in their interest. A multilateral approach must therefore recognize and reflect domestic concerns such as competitiveness and develop- ment. It also must be flexible enough to accommodate different types of commitments and national strategies. Engaging actors beyond the climate circle is essential, both to build domestic support for action and to extend climate efforts to non-climate forums such as trade and development. Finally, advancing the international effort will require new types of mitigation strategies. The + approach thus far has focused principally on reducing emission “outputs.” An alternative or complemen- tary approach is to frame commitments in terms of “inputs”—the activities that generate emissions. If carefully crafted, this can help drive mitigation by focusing on the actions needed and by highlighting synergies between climate protection and core development concerns such as energy and transportation. These points are neither firm principles nor prescriptions. Rather they are offered as broad themes worth considering as the dialogue on next steps moves toward a closer examination of specific options for moving forward. The Pew Center looks forward to engaging further with the many participants in this vital dialogue. ii + Advancing the international effort Acknowledgements Many individuals and organizations contributed to this publication. The Pew Center and the authors would like to thank in particular the Sustainable Energy Programme of the Shell Foundation for its generous support of the six “think pieces” published herein; the United Nations Foundation for making possible a series of workshops in China, Germany, and Mexico where the papers were presented and discussed; and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences for cosponsoring our workshop in Beijing. In addition, we thank all those who commented on on-line drafts of the papers, and the following work- shop participants and peer reviewers: Workshops Bonn, Germany —June 7, 2003 Imran Habib Ahmad Gao Feng Daniela I. Stoytcheva Ministry of Environment, Pakistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China Ministry of Environment and Water, Bulgaria Taha Balafrej Sarah Hendry Ministry of Territorial Development, Department for Environment, Food, Halldor Thorgeirsson Water, and Environment, Morocco and Rural Affairs, United Kingdom Ministry of the Environment, Iceland Henriëtte Bersee Peter Heyward Evgeny Utkin Ministry of Housing, Department of Foreign Affairs Federal Service for Hydrometeorology Spatial Planning, and Environment, and Trade, Australia and Environmental Monitoring, Russia The Netherlands Dimitrios Lalas Everton Vieira Vargas Ana María Bianchi Ministry of Environment, Physical Ministry of External Relations, Brazil + Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Argentina Planning, and Public Works, Greece Murray Ward Ambassador Chandrashekhar Dasgupta Frank Loy Ministry for the Environment, New The Energy and Resources Institute formerly U.S. Department of State Zealand Harald Dovland Gonzalo Menéndez Harlan L. Watson Ministry of Environment, Norway National Environmental Authority, Department of State, United States of Panama America Manuel Estrada Porrúa Secretariat for Environment and Ken Okaniwa Michael Zammit Cutajar Natural Resources, Mexico Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan formerly UNFCCC Secretariat Paul Fauteux Karsten Sach Environment Canada Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, and Nuclear Safety, Germany Cocoyoc, Mexico —July 25-26, 2003 + Francisco Barnes de Castro John Drexhage Salvador Gómez Avila Ministry of Energy Policy and International Institute for Sustainable Petróleos Mexicanos Technological Development, Mexico Development Mark Helmke Preety Bhandari Christiana Figueres United States Senate Staff The Energy and Resources Institute Center for Sustainable Development in Tom Jacob the Americas Jean-Yves Caneill DuPont Electricité de France José Alberto Garibaldi Bakary Kante Ministry of Energy Policy and Henry Derwent United Nations Environment Programme Technological Development, Mexico Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, United Kingdom iii Advancing the international effort + Emilio La Rovere Jimmy Ovia Toshiyuki Sakamoto Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Papua New Guinea Mission to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and United Nations Industry, Japan Andrei Marcu International Emissions Trading Annie Petsonk Joséluis Samaniego Association Environmental Defense Center for Sustainable Transport of Mexico City Margaret Martin Cédric Philibert Natural Resources Canada International Energy Agency Ricardo Sánchez Sosa United Nations Environment Programme Luíz Gylvan Meira Filho Nigel Purvis UNFCCC Secretariat Brookings Institution Zou Ji Renmin University of China Beijing, China—September 19-20, 2003 Malik Amin Aslam Gao Feng Jennifer L. Morgan National Assembly; and Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China World Wildlife Fund ENVORK: A Research and Development Erik Haites Richard Muyungi Organisation, Pakistan Margaree Consultants, Inc. Vice-President's Office, Tanzania Tom Burke Li Liyan Charles Nicholson Rio Tinto National Development and BP Chen Hongbo Reform Commission, China Pan Jiahua Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Li Chihui Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Kok Kee Chow Huaneng Power Group Artur Runge-Metzger Meteorological Service, Malaysia Liu Zhan European Commission Drew Clarke China Power Investment Corp. Farhana Yamin Department of Industry, Meg McDonald University of Sussex Tourism and Resources, Australia Alcoa World Alumina Australia Zhao Jun Hideo Fukushima Bert Metz Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan National Institute of Public Health and Environment Peer Reviewers Duncan Brack Luíz Gylvan Meira Filho Youba Sokona + The Royal Institute of International UNFCCC Secretariat Environmental Development Action Affairs in the Third World Frank Loy* Ambassador Chandrashekhar Dasgupta* formerly U.S. Department of State Halldor Thorgeirsson The Energy and Resources Institute Ministry of the Environment, Iceland Bert Metz* Ambassador Raúl Estrada Oyuela National
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