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Downloaded 09/30/21 03:34 PM UTC 2654 JOURNAL of CLIMATE VOLUME 34 Extremes Since 1970 Was Twice the Magnitude of That in the Pole and Vostok Station

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Downloaded 09/30/21 03:34 PM UTC 2654 JOURNAL of CLIMATE VOLUME 34 Extremes Since 1970 Was Twice the Magnitude of That in the Pole and Vostok Station 1APRIL 2021 T U R N E R E T A L . 2653 Extreme Temperatures in the Antarctic a a a a a a JOHN TURNER, HUA LU, JOHN KING, GARETH J. MARSHALL, TONY PHILLIPS, DAN BANNISTER, AND a STEVE COLWELL a British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge, United Kingdom (Manuscript received 13 July 2020, in final form 6 November 2020) ABSTRACT: We present the first Antarctic-wide analysis of extreme near-surface air temperatures based on data collected up to the end of 2019 as part of the synoptic meteorological observing programs. We consider temperatures at 17 stations on the Antarctic continent and nearby sub-Antarctic islands. We examine the frequency distributions of temper- atures and the highest and lowest individual temperatures observed. The variability and trends in the number of extreme temperatures were examined via the mean daily temperatures computed from the 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC ob- servations, with the thresholds for extreme warm and cold days taken as the 5th and 95th percentiles. The five stations examined from the Antarctic Peninsula region all experienced a statistically significant increase (p , 0.01) in the number of extreme high temperatures in the late-twentieth-century part of their records, although the number of extremes decreased in subsequent years. For the period after 1979 we investigate the synoptic background to the extreme events using ECMWF interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) fields. The majority of record high temperatures were recorded after the passage of air masses over high orography, with the air being warmed by the foehn effect. At some stations in coastal East Antarctica the highest temperatures were recorded after air with a high potential temperature descended from the Antarctic plateau, resulting in an air mass 58–78C warmer than the maritime air. Record low temperatures at the Antarctic Peninsula stations were observed during winters with positive sea ice anomalies over the Bellingshausen and Weddell Seas. KEYWORDS: Atmosphere; Antarctica; Antarctic Oscillation; Climate variability; Temperature 1. Introduction (63.48S, 57.08E; 13 m MSL) near the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, recorded a temperature of 17.58C, which was the highest Antarctica is a land of extremes. It is the highest, coldest, accepted temperature measured on the Antarctic continent and driest, and windiest continent on Earth, but with a wide range nearby islands (Bozkurtetal.2018; Skansi et al. 2017). More re- of climatic conditions from the relatively warm, maritime cently, Esperanza reported a temperature of 18.38Con6February northern part of the Antarctic Peninsula to the frigid plateau of 2020, although this measurement has yet to be verified. East Antarctica (King and Turner 1997). These four extreme events have received extensive publicity, but Vostok station [78.58S, 106.98E; 3488 m above mean sea level there has been little research into extreme temperatures at other (m MSL)] on the East Antarctic plateau recorded the lowest Antarctic locations. A record high temperature at South Pole in surface temperature observed on Earth when, on 21 July 1983, the 1957 was examined by Alvarez and Lieske (1960) and attributed to temperature fell to 289.28C. Analysis of this event (Turner et al. warm-air advection from the coastal region over several days. A 2009) showed that the very low temperature occurred as a result of further event that gave record high temperatures at several stations the isolation of the station from relatively warm maritime air in 1978 was documented by Sinclair (1981), and again linked to masses for a period of 10 days. However, it was suggested that advection of warm air into the interior of the continent. More re- even lower temperatures could occur at higher elevations, such as cently, studies have shown that such intrusions of maritime air onto Dome A (4093 m MSL; 80.378S, 72.358E) and these have subse- the Antarctic plateau can be well represented by numerical analyses quently been identified using satellite observations and auto- (Nicolas and Bromwich 2011), indicating that the operational an- matic weather station (AWS) data (Scambos et al. 2018). alyses can be of value in investigating extremes. At the other extreme, it has recently been confirmed (Skansi Orcadas station on the South Orkney Islands northeast of et al. 2017) that the highest surface temperature measured south of the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula and north of the Weddell Sea 608Swas19.88C, recorded at Signy station (60.78S, 45.68W; 5 m has Antarctica’s longest meteorological record, starting in MSL), South Orkney Islands, on 30 January 1982. Analysis of this 1903. Although the early observations have yet to be digitized, event (King et al. 2017) showed that the high temperature occurred daily mean temperatures are available and trends in these when warm midtropospheric air descended to the station during a mean values and the extremes have been investigated by foehn event as a northerly airstream flowed over the high orog- Zazulie et al. (2010). They found that since 1950 there had raphy of Coronation Island. On 24 March 2015, Esperanza station been a reduction in the number of cold extremes, particularly in fall and winter. The positive trend in the summer warm Denotes content that is immediately available upon publica- tion as open access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license (http://creativecommons. Corresponding author: John Turner, [email protected] org/licenses/by/4.0/). DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0538.1 Ó 2021 American Meteorological Society Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/30/21 03:34 PM UTC 2654 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 34 extremes since 1970 was twice the magnitude of that in the Pole and Vostok station. We have not used the measurements earlier part of the record, indicating the potential impact of made by AWSs since these systems are unattended for long stratospheric ozone depletion. periods and there are questions regarding the accuracy of the A knowledge of extreme conditions, including their fre- temperature observations in extreme conditions. quency and the synoptic background to the events, is important Quality control of the observations is extremely important in for ensuring the physical maintenance and safety of the sta- assessing extreme events, so this topic is discussed in section 2, tions, but is also of great research interest, as extreme condi- along with the means by which we determined the thresholds tions can contribute significantly to the breakup of ice shelves for extreme conditions. Section 3 examines the frequency during the summer months (Scambos et al. 2004). High tem- distributions of temperatures from the stations and the factors perature events can be associated with significant amounts of that influence the shape of the distributions. The highest and precipitation, which are important in the interpretation of the lowest temperatures recorded at the stations are discussed in signals in ice cores (Schlosser et al. 2016; Turner et al. 2019a). section 4, along with the synoptic environments in which these Extreme atmospheric conditions can also have an impact on occurred. The variability and trends in the occurrence of ex- the formation and melting of sea ice, which in turn can affect treme warm and cold days over the full length of the records the ocean environment (Turner et al. 2017). are considered in section 5. Conclusions are presented in There are different interpretations as to what constitutes an section 6. extreme event. Determining a suitable definition often depends on the application or reason for considering meteorological pa- 2. Data and methods rameters that are well beyond the mean. For applications con- cerned with economic and social impacts, a temperature threshold We use the synoptic observations of surface temperature made as that leads to physical hardship to certain sections of the commu- part of the routine meteorological observing programs carried out at nity may be appropriate. In tropical areas a threshold temperature the stations up to the end of 2019. In the early parts of the records the of 358 or 408C can be appropriate because of the societal impacts measurements were made manually by observers at the main syn- (Zhai and Pan 2003), with such temperatures occurring on several optic hours, with the data being collected every 3 or 6 h, or more days or more being very important. In the Antarctic, tempera- infrequently depending on the availability of staff. Gradually, there tures above the freezing point are particularly important because was a transition to the automated collection of data, which allowed of the resultant ice melt and impact on the terrestrial biota (Wake more frequent observations to be obtained, with hourly or more and Marshall 2015). Other investigations of extremes have fo- frequent data often being archived. The observations collected were cused on temperatures above or below a specified percentile, with brought together as part of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic the 5th and 95th percentiles often being used (Cardil et al. 2014). Research (SCAR) Reference Antarctic Data for Environmental In other cases an extreme temperature has been taken as a value Research (READER) project (Turner et al. 2004), with the data beyond 2 standard deviations of the mean (Vavrus et al. 2006), but being obtained from the operators of the national Antarctic pro- this is of most value if the data have a normal frequency distri- grams. The data were subject to a rigorous quality control procedure bution, which, as we show in this paper, is not the case for most (see Turner et al. 2004) and the computed monthly mean values up Antarctic temperature data. to 2015 form the basis of the online SCAR READER database While there have been a number of climatological studies into (https://legacy.bas.ac.uk/met/READER/).Since2015wehaveused extreme temperatures in the extrapolar regions, very few have the reports from the station operators where possible but if these considered Antarctica.
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