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Research Aktuell Vom 05.05.2020

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Research Aktuell Vom 05.05.2020 5. Mai 2020 Marktdaten im Überblick ...................................................................................................................... 2 Unternehmenskommentare .................................................................................................................. 3 Airbus ............................................................................................................................................... 3 Altria Group ....................................................................................................................................... 5 Beiersdorf ......................................................................................................................................... 7 Microsoft ......................................................................................................................................... 13 MTU Aero Engines ............................................................................................................................ 15 Roche Holding (Genussschein) ......................................................................................................... 21 Safran ............................................................................................................................................. 23 Rechtliche Hinweise ........................................................................................................................... 25 DAILY Marktdaten im Überblick 04.05.2020 01.05.2020 Änderung Deutschland DAX 10.467 10.862 -3,6% MDAX 22.431 23.044 -2,7% TecDAX 2.795 2.855 -2,1% Bund-Future 174,04 174,43 -0,2% 10J Bund in % -0,5630 -0,5860 0,0230 PP 3M Zins in % -0,5320 -0,5670 0,0350 PP Europa EuroStoxx 50 2.816 2.928 -3,8% FTSE 100 5.754 5.763 -0,2% SMI 9.390 9.629 -2,5% Welt DOW JONES 23.750 23.724 0,1% S&P 500 2.843 2.831 0,4% NASDAQ COMPOSITE 8.711 8.605 1,2% NIKKEI 225 19.619 20.194 -2,8% TOPIX 1.431 1.464 -2,2% Rohstoffe / Devisen EUR in USD 1,0907 1,0981 -0,7% Gold (USD je Feinunze) 1.709,10 1.686,25 1,4% Brent-Öl (USD je Barrel) 27,20 26,44 2,9% Quelle: Bloomberg PP: Prozentpunkte Hinweis: Die Indexstände von DAX, MDAX, TecDAX, Bund-Future und SMI beziehen sich auf die Handelstage vom 30.04. und 04.05. (kein Handel am 01.05.) DAX (Kurs und gleitender 90 Tage-Durchschnitt) Bund-Future (Kurs und gleitender 90 Tage-Durchschnitt) 14.250 182 12.750 173 11.250 164 9.750 155 8.250 146 Mai 15 Mai 16 Mai 17 Mai 18 Mai 19 Mai 20 Mai 15 Mai 16 Mai 17 Mai 18 Mai 19 Mai 20 Quelle: Bloomberg Quelle: Bloomberg 2 DAILY Unternehmenskommentare Airbus Anlass Zahlen für das erste Quartal 2020 Ha lte n (Halten) Kurs am 04.05.20 um 17:35h 55,00 EUR Einschätzung Erstellung abgeschlossen 05.05.2020 / 13:35h Das Zahlenwerk für das erste Quartal (Q1) 2020 war bereits durch Erstmals weitergegeben 05.05.2020 / 15:05h die Covid-19-Pandemie (u.a. Auslieferung von zivilen Flugzeugen: Kurszie l 61,00 EUR -25% y/y) sowie den milliardenschweren Strafzahlungen (freier Marktkapitalisierung 43,03 Mrd. EUR Cashflow: -8,50 (Vj.: -4,45) Mrd. Euro) belastet. Es blieb durchweg Bra nc he Industrie hinter unseren Prognosen zurück. Der Auftragsbestand an zivilen La nd Niederlande Flugzeugen (per 31.03.2020) ist im Quartalsverlauf weiter gestie- WKN 938914 gen und liegt damit u.E. auf einem hohen Niveau. Allerdings sind Auftragsverzögerungen und -stornierungen u.E. wahrscheinlich. Re ute rs AIRG.DE Das Airbus-Management sieht sich weiterhin nicht in der Lage, Ke nnza hle n 12 /19 12 /2 0 e 12 /2 1e einen neuen Ausblick für das Geschäftsjahr 2020 zu veröffentli- Ergebnis je Aktie (EUR) - 1,75 2,22 3,89 chen. Positiv werten wir die Management-Aussage, dass gegen- Kurs/Gewinn neg. 24,8 14,1 wärtig nicht die Notwendigkeit von Staatshilfe besteht. Wir haben Dividende je Aktie (EUR) 0,00 0,50 1,00 unsere Prognosen mehrheitlich angepasst (u.a. berichtetes EpS Div.- Rendite 0,0% 0,9% 1,8% 2020e: 2,22 (alt: 4,24) Euro; berichtetes EpS 2021e: 3,89 (alt: Kurs/Umsatz 1,3 0,8 0,8 3,80) Euro). Unter Berücksichtigung der Geschäftsentwicklung, der Perspektiven sowie des gegenwärtigen Kursniveaus (KBV Kurs/Op. Ergebnis 69,2 14,2 9,7 2020e: 5,5) lautet unser Votum für die Airbus-Aktie weiterhin Kurs/Cashflow 24,7 - 19,7 9,7 Halten (Kursziel: 61,00 (alt: 62,00) Euro (Discounted-Cashflow- Kurs/Buchwert 15,5 5,5 4,1 Modell; Prognoseanpassung, niedrigeres Beta)). 145,00 120,00 Sven Diermeier (Senior Analyst) 95,00 70,00 45,00 Mai 15 Mai 16 Mai 17 Mai 18 Mai 19 Mai 20 Quelle: Bloomberg Performance 3M 6M 12 M Absolut - 59,8% - 57,8% - 54,0% Relativ z. MDAX - 37,6% - 41,1% - 38,7% Erstempfehlung 13.05.2014 Historie der Umstufungen (12 Monate): 3 DAILY SWOT-Analyse Stärken Schwächen - Airbus agiert auf Märkten mit duopolistischer bzw. - Rüstungsgeschäft im globalen Wettbewerb relativ oligopolistischen Marktstrukturen klein und ohne größere Unterstützungsmaßnahmen - hoher Auftragsbestand bei Verkehrsflugzeugen seitens der Politik - umfassendes Produktangebot - Entwicklung der Wechselkurse mit zum Teil deutli- chen Ergebniseinflüssen - Governance (Spielball politischer Interessen) - regelmäßig Sonderbelastungen - Dividendenausfall für 2019 sowie kein Ausblick für 2020 (geringe Visibilität der Geschäftsentwicklung) Chancen Risiken - langfristig überdurchschnittliche Wachstumsraten in - möglicher Engpass bei Zulieferern oder Schwierigkei- der zivilen Luftfahrt zu erwarten, vor allem in Asien ten bei der Entwicklung neuer Teile und beim Hoch- - steigende Militärausgaben lauf von Serienproduktionen - Realisierung von Skaleneffekten - Abstürze von Flugzeugen aus eigener Produktion - starker Auftragseingang durch Imageschaden des - „Fliegen als Klimakiller“ Hauptkonkurrenten Boeing - Ratingherabstufung - Auftragsverzögerungen / Auftragsstornierungen Quelle: NATIONAL-BANK AG 4 DAILY Unternehmenskommentare Altria Group Anlass Zahlen für das erste Quartal 2020 V e rka ufe n (Verkaufen) Kurs am 04.05.20 um 21:59h 38,01 USD Einschätzung Erstellung abgeschlossen 05.05.2020 / 13:35h Die Zahlen für das erste Quartal (Q1) 2020 fielen überzeugend Erstmals weitergegeben 05.05.2020 / 15:05h aus und übertrafen sowohl beim Nettoumsatz (+15,0% y/y auf Kurszie l - 5,05 Mrd. USD) als auch ergebnisseitig (u.a. bereinigtes EpS: 1,09 Marktkapitalisierung 70,64 Mrd. USD (Vj: 0,90) USD) unsere Erwartungen (4,58 Mrd. USD bzw. 0,97 Bra nc he Konsum USD) sowie den Marktkonsens deutlich. Überlagert wurde das La nd USA Zahlenwerk durch die Rücknahme des Ausblicks für 2020 (Anstieg WKN 200417 des bereinigten EpS auf 4,39 bis 4,51 (Vj.: 4,22) USD) und für 2020 bis 2022 (jährlicher Anstieg des bereinigtes EpS um 4% bis Re ute rs MO.N 7%), den Verzicht auf einen neuen Ausblick sowie den angekün- Ke nnza hle n 12 /19 12 /2 0 e 12 /2 1e digten Stopp des Aktienrückkaufprogramms (Volumen: 1 Mrd. Ergebnis je Aktie (USD) - 0,70 3,94 4,24 USD). An der Dividendenpolitik hält Altria fest. Risiken durch Kurs/Gewinn neg. 9,6 9,0 Covid-19 sieht Altria v.a. für die Zigarettennachfrage in den USA Dividende je Aktie (USD) 3,28 3,36 3,44 sowie für die Beteiligung an Anheuser-Busch InBev (u.E. hohes Div.- Rendite 6,7% 8,8% 9,1% Wertberichtigungsrisiko). Wir senken unsere Prognosen für 2020 Kurs/Umsatz 4,6 3,5 3,4 (EpS berichtet: 3,94 (alt: 4,21) USD; EpS bereinigt: 4,26 (alt: 4,43) USD; DpS: 3,36 (alt: 3,46) USD) und 2021 (EpS berichtet: Kurs/Op. Ergebnis 8,9 6,7 6,3 4,24 (alt: 4,69) USD; EpS bereinigt: 4,35 (alt: 4,73) USD; DpS: Kurs/Cashflow 11,7 11,0 9,2 3,44 (alt: 3,70) USD). Unter Berücksichtigung der Faktoren (star- Kurs/Buchwert 14,5 10,1 8,7 kes Wachstum bei NGP-Produkten; Diversifizierung des Produkt- 82,00 portfolios; schwache Guidance für den US-Zigarettenmarkt; Belas- tungen durch Covid-19; hohe Verschuldung) bestätigen wir unser 68,00 Verkaufen-Votum für die Altria-Aktie. 54,00 40,00 26,00 Lars Lusebrink (Analyst) Mai 15 Mai 16 Mai 17 Mai 18 Mai 19 Mai 20 Quelle: Bloomberg Performance 3M 6M 12 M Absolut - 17,9% - 17,8% - 29,3% Relativ z. S&P 500 - 3,1% - 10,3% - 25,8% Erstempfehlung 30.04.2014 Historie der Umstufungen (12 Monate): 5 DAILY SWOT-Analyse Stärken Schwächen - attraktive Dividendenpolitik (hohe Dividendenrendi- - produktseitig geringe Diversifizierung (große Abhän- te, sehr hohe Ausschüttungsquote) gigkeit von der Entwicklung des Segments Rauchwa- - herausragende Marktposition im US-Zigarettenmarkt ren) - bekannte Markennamen (u.a. Marlboro, Benson & - geringe regionale Diversifizierung (große Abhängig- Hedges, Copenhagen) keit vom US-Markt) - striktes und erfolgreiches Kostenmanagement - andauernder Absatzrückgang bei konventionellen Zi- garetten - hohe Verschuldung - Lockerung der Vereinbarung mit JUUL - Aktienrückkäufe als wichtige Unterstützung für die Aktie fallen aus Chancen Risiken - weiteres Kostensenkungspotenzial - zunehmender Konkurrenzdruck durch Billigmarken im - Produktinnovationen in Kooperation mit Philip Morris Bereich Zigaretten International - weitere Anhebung der Verbrauchssteuern könnte die - Diversifikation der Produktpalette (z.B. Rauchfreie Nachfrage nach Zigaretten dämpfen Produkte, Kautabak) - weitere Restriktionen in den USA (Ausweitung der An- ti-Raucher-Kampagnen, Ausweitung der Rauchverbo- te) - Paradigmenwechsel der FDA bei Nikotingehalt - hoher Goodwill - deutliches Wertberichtigungsrisiko bei Anheuser- Busch InBev - deutliche Abschwächung der Zigarettennachfrage in den USA auf Grund des signifikanten Anstiegs der Ar- beitslosigkeit durch Covid-19 Quelle: NATIONAL-BANK AG 6 DAILY Unternehmenskommentare Beiersdorf Anlass Umsatzzahlen für das erste Quartal
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