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Financial Services Quarterly Update: Q2 2019

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Financial Services Quarterly Update: Q2 2019 Financial Services Quarterly update Q2 2019 Deloitte Corporate Finance LLC | www.investmentbanking.deloitte.com Quarterly update | Q2 2019 | Financial Services Financial Services trends In this update Interest rate cuts may be on Declining rates to cut into 1 2/3 the horizon . Fintech yields . Financial Services trends Federal Reserve (the Fed) In an already highly competitive • Chairman, Jerome Powell, online lending market, the Fed’s • Economic outlook reverted to a more dovish policy shift to lower rates may dampen • Industry analysis stance in Q2 following softer growth in the emerging Fintech economic data in 2019. Muted market which typically depends • Select M&A transactions inflation, slower global growth, heavily on offering high-yield • Appendix and trade uncertainties weighed savings to its customers. Some on the outlook for the US of the largest online banks have economy. With increased already lowered rates offered on This update will focus on news speculation of an interest rate deposits in expectation of an and trends in the following cut on the horizon (the first cut interest rate cut. In addition, areas: since 2008), banks are likely to rates on Certificates of Deposits face increased pressure to grow (CDs) are also falling in earnings on contracting margins response to expectations. • USs Bank as US bank assets reprice • US Specialty Finance faster than their liabilities. Piper Jaffray Acquires Sandler O’Neill4/5 July 09 2019 – Piper Jaffray Cos. announced the acquisition of Sandler O’Neill & Partners, combining two prominent investment banks. The deal is valued at $485 million with Sandler shareholders Who we are to receive $350 million in cash at closing with an additional $135 million in restricted stock offered to Sandler’s partners. Piper Jaffray plans to expand further into the middle market investment Deloitte Corporate Finance LLC banking arena through the acquisition, specifically, by building off is a leading global middle Sandler’s strong experience advising on bank deals. The deal is market M&A adviser. The expected to close in January 2020 with the newly combined firm’s professionals have investment bank, known as Piper Sandler Cos., reporting $839 extensive knowledge and million and $573 million in pro forma investment-banking and advisory-services revenue, respectively, last year. years of experience in the Financial Services space. Median Bank EPS Estimates Revised Down6 (per share) $5.30 $5.11 $5.10 $4.98 $4.90 $4.75 $4.65 $4.70 $4.50 $4.30 Contacts Est. EPS as of 12/18* Est. EPS as of 07/15* 2019 2020 Charlie Welch *Median EPS estimates based on top 25 US banks by Assets. Managing Director 10-Year Treasury Yield [email protected] 3.30 Curve7 +1 (704) 731-7201 3.10 2.90 2.70 Phil Colaco 2.50 CEO & Managing Director 2.30 [email protected] 2.10 +1 (704) 333-0533 1.90 1.70 1.50 10-year 3-month 5-year 2-year www.investmentbanking.deloitte.com | Page 2 Quarterly update | Q2 2019 | Financial Services Banking sector outlook Whole bank M&A volume1 Announced price / TBV2 350 250 296 227 300 283 280 277 225 216 262 259 203 eals 239 200 d 250 217 222 164 &A 175 159 156 200 176 149 M 141 143 145 150 135 132 ank 150 119 119 124 b 116 110 125 110 93 100 78 TBV P / Median 56 100 50 75 Number of 0 50 Commercial bank capital ratios & ROAE3 Number of US bank branches4 16% 100,000 14% 12% 96,000 ranches 10% 92,000 8% S bank b 88,000 U Percentage % Percentage 6% f o 84,000 4% 2% Number 80,000 Capital ratio ROAE US bank stock price and net interest margin performance5/6 ($ per share) $80.00 3.60% $70.00 3.50% $60.00 3.40% $50.00 $40.00 3.30% $30.00 3.20% $20.00 3.10% $10.00 $0.00 3.00% SNL US bank NIM www.investmentbanking.deloitte.com | Page 3 Quarterly update | Q2 2019 | Financial Services Banking sector breakdown & trading statistics1 ii YTDi Quarterly Net Number of Price Price / Return on Return on Efficiency TE / NPA / Sector interest companies change Book assets equity ratio TA TA margin Banks (<$1B Assets) 475 0.0 % 114.1 % 0.89 % 3.8 % 8.6 % 71.0 % 10.0 % 0.8 % Banks ($1B-$10B Assets) 270 2.1 129.6 1.14 3.7 10.2 60.0 9.5 0.6 Banks ($10B-$50B Assets 56 0.9 114.7 1.25 3.6 9.9 55.4 9.2 0.5 Banks (>$50B Assets) 22 2.5 124.2 1.25 3.2 10.8 58.0 9.0 0.5 Banking Sector Index 823 0.0 % 118.7 % 1.04 % 3.7 % 9.5 % 65.1 % 9.6 % 0.6 % Notes: i. As of June 30, 2019. ii. As of Q2 2019. Macroeconomic outlook US gross domestic product2 US Treasury yield curve 3.0% $25.0 5.0% (nominal vs. real)3 2.5% $20.0 4.0% YoY 2.0% p ate ercent $15.0 3.0% r 1.5% rillions r $10.0 2.0% c 1.0% hange in Interest $ 0.5% $5.0 1.0% 0.0% $0.0 0.0% Real yield (%) Nominal yield (%) GDP ($ in trillions) YoY % growth (Adj. for inflation) Public comparables three-year stock market performance4 SNL US bank 48.6% 80.0% S&P 500 index 40.2% NASDAQ Composite index 65.3% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% (10.0%) (20.0%) (30.0%) SNL US bank NASDAQ S&P 500 www.investmentbanking.deloitte.com | Page 4 Quarterly update | Q2 2019 | Financial Services Recent transactions1 Recent bank M&A transactions* Price / Announced Price Acquiror Target Book date ($M) (%) Apr-19 BancFirst Corporation Pegasus Bank $122.0 $258.6 May-19 Banco Bradesco SA BAC Florida Bank 500.0 258.9 Apr-19 Central Bancompany, Inc. Liberty Bancorp, Inc. 104.3 171.6 Jun-19 Columbia Financial, Inc. (MHC) Stewardship Financial Corporation 137.2 166.7 Apr-19 First Citizens BancShares, Inc. Entegra Financial Corp. 213.4 128.2 Apr-19 Glacier Bancorp, Inc. Heritage Bancorp 240.8 239.6 *TransactionsApr-19 with purchaseHancock price Whitney greater Corporation than $100 million. MidSouth Bancorp, Inc. 217.0 119.4 May-19 Heritage Commerce Corp Presidio Bank 197.4 202.8 Jun-19 Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. LegacyTexas Financial Group, Inc. 2,068.3 181.5 Jun-19 S&T Bancorp, Inc. DNB Financial Corporation 206.1 177.9 Jun-19 Valley National Bancorp Oritani Financial Corp. 744.0 138.4 *Transactions with purchase price greater than $100 million. Recent specialty finance M&A transactions Total Announced Price Acquiror Target assets date ($M) ($M) Feb-19 Origami Capital Partners, LLC Medley SBIC LP $45.0 NA Jan-19 EAST Asset Management LLC Rand Capital Corporation 25.0 38,658.0 Jan-19 Redwood Trust, Inc. 5 Arch Funding Corp. 40.0 NA Jan-19 Brookline Bancorp, Inc. Eastern Funding, LLC 35.9 NA Jan-19 People's United Financial, Inc. VAR Technology Finance 60.0 NA Annual bank and specialty finance M&A transaction volume by deal value2 759 800 714 723 719 723 684 679 700 619 607 600 551 500 363 400 300 200 100 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD 2019 Undisclosed <$100M $100-$250M $250-$500M $500-$1B >$1B www.investmentbanking.deloitte.com | Page 5 Quarterly update | Q2 2019 | Financial Services Appendix Public comparables analysis1 YTD Quarterly Price Price/ Return on Net Interest Return on Efficiency TE/ NPA/ Company (ticker) change book assets margin equity ratio TA TA Banks (Assets <$1B) (475)* Median 2.4 % 112.7 % 1.0 % 3.8 % 9.1 % 70.4 % 9.8 x 0.7 x Mean 5.9 % 120.7 % 0.8 % 3.9 % 7.1 % 75.2 % 10.3 x 1.1 x Banks (Assets $1B-$10B) (264)* Median 2.1 % 129.6 % 1.1 % 3.7 % 10.2 % 60.0 % 9.5 x 0.6 x Mean 3.1 % 138.6 % 1.1 % 3.7 % 9.8 % 60.9 % 9.8 x 0.7 x Banks (Assets $10B-$50B) (50) Banc of California, Inc . (0.6) % 98.0 % 0.3 % 2.8 % 2.9 % 79.1 % 9.2 x 0.3 x FCB Financ ial Holdings, Inc . NA 112.1 1.3 3.2 12.0 37.2 10.1 NA Community Bank System, Inc. 7.3 175.1 1.6 3.7 9.7 58.5 9.4 0.2 Berkshire Hills Banc orp, Inc . 12.4 80.7 0.8 3.2 6.0 59.9 8.8 0.3 Great Western Banc orp, Inc . 9.3 97.1 1.4 3.7 9.8 45.6 9.2 1.3 United Community Banks, Inc. 10.7 130.6 1.4 4.0 12.0 54.0 9.7 0.5 International Bancshares Corporation (3.7) 125.8 1.7 4.2 10.5 49.5 14.6 1.0 First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. (2.4) 139.5 1.3 4.0 9.7 58.8 8.6 0.5 First BanCorp. (6.0) 120.6 1.4 5.0 8.4 52.2 16.7 7.3 Columbia Banking System, Inc. 6.9 115.1 1.4 4.3 9.0 57.2 10.4 0.6 Central Bancompany, Inc. NA 130.6 1.5 3.7 10.3 57.7 13.2 0.4 Hilltop Holdings Inc . 14.2 86.0 1.2 3.7 8.0 85.2 12.8 0.4 Trustmark Corporation (3.7) 137.3 1.0 3.6 8.4 69.0 9.1 0.8 First Midwest Banc orp, Inc .
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