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A REVIEW of LAND- USE CHANGE MODELS Author Arnout Van Soesbergen

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A REVIEW of LAND- USE CHANGE MODELS Author Arnout Van Soesbergen A REVIEW OF LAND- USE CHANGE MODELS Author Arnout van Soesbergen Prepared for John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation Acknowledgements Within UNEP-WCMC, support in preparing this report was provided by Sarah Darrah, Neil Burgess, Rebecca Mant and Fiona Danks. Rüdiger Schaldach (CESR, Kassel University), Jasper van Vliet (Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University 2 Amsterdam) and Aline Mosnier (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) served as external reviewers and provided comments on the draft report. Published: April 2016 Copyright 2016 United Nations Environment Programme The United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC) is the specialist biodiversity assessment centre of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the world’s foremost intergovernmental environmental organisation. The Centre has been in operation for over 30 years, combining scientific research with practical policy advice. This publication may be reproduced for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission, provided acknowledgement to the source is made. Reuse of any figures is subject to permission from the original rights holders. No use of this publication may be made for resale or any other commercial purpose without permission in writing from UNEP. Applications for permission, with a statement of purpose and extent of reproduction, should be sent to the Director, UNEP-WCMC, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, CB3 0DL, UK. The contents of this report do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of UNEP, contributory organisations or editors. The designations employed and the presentations of material in this report do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of UNEP or contributory organisations, editors or publishers concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city area or its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries or the designation of its name, frontiers or boundaries. The mention of a commercial entity or product in this publication does not imply endorsement by UNEP. Image credits: Vladimir Melnik/Shutterstock.com; Ethan Daniels/Shutterstock.com; Xiong Wei/Shutterstock.com; DAVIDNGUYEN/ Shutterstock.com; Sam DCruz/Shutterstock.com; Stasis Photo/Shutterstock.com; guentermanaus/Shutterstock.com; JeremyRichards/Shutterstock.com; Dr. Morley Read/Shutterstock.com; leisuretime70/Shutterstock.com; theskaman306/ Shutterstock.com; John Bill/Shutterstock.com; DuongMinhTien/Shutterstock.com; Sam DCruz/Shutterstock.com; Khoroshunova Olga/Shutterstock.com; Dr_Flash/Shutterstock.com; Byelikova Oksana/Shutterstock.com; Deborah Benbrook/Shutterstock.com; Peter Wollinga/Shutterstock.com; Jess Kraft/Shutterstock.com; Vadim Petrakov/Shutterstock.com; Marieke Sassen ISBN: 978-92-807-3575-8 DEP/1999/CA UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC) 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK UNEP promotes Tel: +44 1223 277314 environmentally sound www.unep-wcmc.org practices globally and in its own activities. Our distribution policy aims to reduce UNEP’s carbon footprint Contents List of figures 5 List of tables 5 3 Glossary 6 Executive Summary 7 1 Introduction 21 1.1 Land cover, land-use and land functions 22 1.2 Land-use models 23 2 Drivers of land-use change 25 2.1 Proximate causes 26 2.2 Biophysical drivers 27 2.3 Feedbacks and interactions 28 3 Review of existing land-use models 29 3.1 Geographic land-use models 30 3.2 Economic land-use models 32 3.3 Integrated land-use models 33 3.4 Other model types 37 4 Land-use models and biodiversity 41 4.1 Global studies 43 4.2 Regional and national studies 44 4.3 Linking land-cover data products and habitat suitability 45 5 Land-use models and ecosystem services 47 5.1 Global studies 48 5.2 Regional studies 48 6 Data for use in land-use models 51 6.1 Socioeconomic data 51 6.2 Baseline land-use and land-cover data 52 6.3 Environmental and topographical data 54 6.4 Model validation data 55 7 Scenarios for use in land-use models 57 7.1 Global scenarios 58 4 7.2 Regional scenarios 62 8 Conclusions and recommendations 63 8.1 General conclusions 63 8.2 Conclusions 64 8.3 Recommendations 65 References 66 LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES Figures No. Title Page 1 Relation between land-cover, land-use and land function and possible methods to collect 22 spatial data (source: Verburg et al. 2009) 2 Proximate causes of land-use change and underlying causes (reproduced from Geist and 26 Lambin 2002) 3 Global area of crop and grassland across the RCPs. Grey area indicates the 90th percentile 35 of scenarios. Vegetation is the part not covered by cropland or anthropogenically used 5 grassland (source: Van Vuuren et al. 2011) Tables No. Title Page 1 Overview of land-use models described in text 39 2 Examples of studies using land-use models and scenarios to assess changes in biodiversity 45 3 Classification schemes for land cover (based on Tomaselli et al. 2013) 45 4 FAO-LCCS main land-cover categories 46 5 Examples of studies using land-use models to assess changes in ecosystem services 49 6 Global and continental land-cover products 52 7 Global agricultural and land management datasets 54 8 Overview of the spatial, temporal and thematic properties of land-use and land-cover data 56 (source: Verburg et al. 2011) ABBREVIATIONS AVHRR Advanced Very High Resolution LC/LU Land Cover / Land Use Radiometer LCCS Land Cover Classification System, BIOSOS Biodiversity Multi-Source Monitoring developed by FAO System from Space to Species, EU-FP7 LCM Land Change Modeler project LCML Land Cover Meta Language CBD Convention on Biological Diversity LUCC Land-Use and Land-Cover Change CEPII Centre d’Etudes Prospectives et 6 d’Informations Internationales LUS Land-use systems CGE Computable General Equilibrium model MODIS Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer CORINE Coordination of Information on the Environment MSA Mean Species Abundance DEM Digital Elevation model NIES National Institute for Environmental Studies DSS Decision Support System NPP Net Primary Productivity FAO Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations NUTS Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics FPU Food Production Unit PBL Netherlands Environmental Protection GCM Global Circulation Model Agency GEO Global Environment Outlook PE Partial Equilibrium model GHC General Habitat Categories PNNL Pacific Northwest National Laboratory GIS Geographic Information System PSS Policy Support System GTAP Global Trade Analysis Project RCP Representative Concentration Pathway IAM Integrated Assessment Model REDD Reducing Emissions from Deforestation IFPRI International Food Policy Research and Forest Degradation Institute REDD-PAC REDD+ Policy Assessment Centre IGBP International Geosphere-Biosphere SRES IPCC Special Report on Emission Programme Scenarios IIASA International Institute of Applied SRTM Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Systems Analysis SSP Shared Socioeconomic Pathway IPCC International Panel on Climate Change ITE2M Integrated Tool for Economic and Ecological Modelling GLOSSARY Neural Network Model: A Neural Network Model Markov Chain Analysis: A statistical model that or 'artificial' neural network (ANN) is a model models the state of a system with a random variable designed to simulate the behaviour of biological that changes through time. The distribution of this neural networks, as in pattern recognition, language variable depends only on the current state and not processing, and problem solving, with the goal of on the sequence of events that preceded it. self-directed information processing. Transition Probability Matrix: A matrix that Cellular Automata Model: A grid based model describes the transitions of a Markov chain where where each cell changes state as a function of time each entry is a non-negative real number that according to a defined set of rules that includes the represents a probability. neighbouring cells. Executive Summary This document aims to provide an overview of Many land-use models exist, operating at scales the current state of land-use modelling as well from local to global, and from coarse to fine 7 as the usability, applicability and availability of resolutions, and they can broadly be categorised modelling tools, particularly in relation to land- into: use change as a driver of change in biodiversity ● Geographic land-use models: models that and ecosystem services. A general overview of spatially allocate land-use types, based on existing models is presented along with their biophysical and infrastructural properties and data requirements and different scenarios the resulting suitability of land for a specific that can be used to drive these models. This use. document was prepared in the first instance to support UNEP-WCMC in the choices and ● Economic land-use models: models that assumptions underlying modelling frameworks use demand and supply functions as the main but is now being made available more widely as drivers of land-use change, giving total areas it can serve as a reference for other organisations of specific land-use types within defined to make informed choices on the capacity needs geographical regions. and options for the use of land-use models in ● Integrated land-use models: models that assessments of land-use change and resulting combine natural and human subsystems. impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services. These often consist of a combination of Land-use models are important tools that can separate process models (e.g. economic and be
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