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Attachment B-1 Calsim-II Model Documentation Attachment B-1 CalSim-II Model Documentation Proposition 1 Water Storage Investment Program Public Benefit Ratio Appeal February 2018 Los Vaqueros Reservoir Expansion Project Attachment B-1 CalSim-II Model Documentation This page is intentionally left blank. February 2018 Appeal Page | B-1.ii Proposition 1 Water Storage Investment Program Funding Application Los Vaqueros Reservoir Expansion Project Attachment B-1 CalSim-II Model Documentation Table of Contents B-1.1 CalSim-II Modifications to the Without-Project Assumptions ...................................... 1 B-1.1.2 Standard Reclamation CalSim Assumptions ................................................................. 2 B-1.1.3 Model Improvements ..................................................................................................... 2 B-1.1.3.1 Sacramento River Navigational Control Point Flow Requirement......................... 2 B-1.1.3.2 SWP and CVP San Luis Reservoir Rule Curve Logic ........................................... 3 B-1.1.4 Removal of Unrealistic Model Artifacts in the Project Alternative .............................. 4 B-1.1.4.1 SWP and CVP Allocations ..................................................................................... 5 B-1.1.4.2 Clear Creek Tunnel Trinity Imports ....................................................................... 5 B-1.2 Agricultural Water Supply ................................................................................................ 6 B-1.3 Water Quality for M&I Water Supply ............................................................................. 7 List of Tables Table B-1.1 NCP Required Flow Schedule Based on Forecasted Lake Shasta Carryover Storage 3 Table B-1.2 Delivered Water Quality for Project Partners ............................................................. 7 List of Figures No table of figures entries found. February 2018 Appeal Page | B-1.iii Proposition 1 Water Storage Investment Program Funding Application Attachment B-1 CalSim-II Model Documentation B-1.1 CalSim-II Modifications to the Without-Project Assumptions Reviewer Comment The applicant made numerous and substantial changes to the CalSim-II model code relative to the without-project model published by the Water Storage Investment Program (WSIP). Some changes are needed to represent current Los Vaqueros facilities and operation, and to evaluate the proposed Los Vaqueros Reservoir Expansion Project (LVE Project). Many of the changes are not part of the Los Vaqueros facilities and operations, and would require approvals and implementation by other agencies, including the following: • Bypass State Water Project (SWP) and Central Valley Project (CVP) operations logic, and instead hold SWP and CVP allocations to user-defined values. • Modify Navigational Control Point flow requirement on the Sacramento River from the National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS) reasonable and prudent alternative (RPA) requirement to a user-defined scheme. • Modify American River Flow Management Schedule (i.e., the flows released from Folsom Lake). • Add a CVP contractor demand in the American River Basin (i.e., Depletion Study Area 70). • Modify SWP and CVP San Luis Reservoir rule curve calculations (i.e., changes San Luis operations). • Implement a Fremont weir notch. • Set flow in Clear Creek Tunnel (from Lewiston to Whiskeytown) to a user-defined time series in each model cycle. These non-LVE Project changes were also included in the with-project model. Reviewers cannot determine the magnitude of the effects of these non-LVE Project changes on project benefits or impacts. Response The changes in the CalSim-II model identified by the reviewers as not part of the Los Vaqueros facilities and operations have been removed, and a new set of results from the modified CalSim- II model were submitted. February 2018 Appeal Page | B-1.1 Proposition 1 Water Storage Investment Program Funding Application Los Vaqueros Reservoir Expansion Project Attachment B-1 CalSim-II Model Documentation In addition, the following provides an explanation of why the changes listed above were made to the CalSim-II model submitted in August 2017, in order that the reviewers may have a fuller understanding of both sets of modeling results. The changes fall into three categories: 1. Changes based on standard Reclamation assumptions in their benchmark study. 2. Improvements to existing CalSim logic in both the without-project and with-project cases. 3. Refinements to the with-project case to eliminate unrealistic impacts due to modeling artifacts. These changes are described in the following sections. B-1.1.2 Standard Reclamation CalSim Assumptions Three of the changes noted by the reviewer are standard Reclamation CalSim assumptions in Reclamation’s most recent benchmark study. Those changes are: • The modified American River Flow Management Schedule • The additional CVP contractor demand in the American River Basin • Inclusion of the Fremont Weir Notch The CalSim-II model submitted in the August 2017 Los Vaqueros Reservoir Expansion Project CWC application was also used for the CEQA/NEPA analysis and the Federal Feasibility Study for the same project, and as such, standard Reclamation CalSim assumptions were used. The changes were included in both the without- and with-project cases. B-1.1.3 Model Improvements Two of the edits were intended to, in our opinion, make the modeled operations more realistic in both the without- and with-project cases. Those edits were: • The Navigation Control Point Flow Requirement • The SWP and CVP San Luis Rule Curve B-1.1.3.1 Sacramento River Navigational Control Point Flow Requirement The Navigation Control Point (NCP), or Sacramento River flow at Wilkins Slough, flow requirement in the CalSim baseline study provided by the CWC for WSIP applications varies from 3250 cubic feet per second to 5000 cubic feet per second, depending on north-of-Delta (NOD) CVP Ag service contract allocations. Lower allocations result in lower required flows and higher allocations result in higher required flows. In real-time operations, NCP flow requirement schedules are not dependent on Ag service contract allocations, but on storage conditions in Shasta and, more importantly, on the forecasted February 2018 Appeal Page | B-1.2 Proposition 1 Water Storage Investment Program Funding Application Los Vaqueros Reservoir Expansion Project Attachment B-1 CalSim-II Model Documentation carryover storage in Shasta. The CalSim model submitted in August 2017 varies the NCP schedule based on forecasted Shasta carryover storage. The forecast updates at the beginning of each CVP contract year (March 1st). The flow schedule is shown in Table B-1.1. The Shasta carryover forecasts are pre-processed using a representative baseline. If a study update significantly changes Shasta carryover, then the forecasts of carryover can be updated for purposes of setting an appropriate NCP flow schedule. Table B-1.1 NCP Required Flow Schedule Based on Forecasted Lake Shasta Carryover Storage Forecast Sacramento River Navigation Control Point Required Flow Schedule Shasta Carryover OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP (TAF) (CFS) (CFS) (CFS) (CFS) (CFS) (CFS) (CFS) (CFS) (CFS) (CFS) (CFS) (CFS) > 2400 5000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 > 2000 4000 3500 3500 3500 3500 3500 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 > 1600 3500 3500 3500 3500 3500 3500 3500 3500 3500 3500 3500 3500 < 1600 3250 3250 3250 3250 3250 3250 3250 3250 3250 3250 3250 3250 B-1.1.3.2 SWP and CVP San Luis Reservoir Rule Curve Logic The CVP and SWP San Luis rule curves are used in CalSim-II to prioritize balance between NOD storage and San Luis storage for the CVP and SWP. These San Luis rule curves control upstream releases for export when there is a choice between storing water in upstream reservoirs and releasing water for export and storage in San Luis. Operational constraints such as flood pool, minimum instream flow requirements, export regulations, health and safety pumping requirements, and physical pump capacity override these rule curves. When any of these operational constraints control operations, choices for balancing NOD storage are limited. During the winter, the Delta is often in excess conditions and additional upstream reservoir releases are not needed, so these rule curves do not govern upstream reservoir operations. During winter months, upstream reservoir releases are also often controlled by flood pool or minimum flow requirements, and exports are controlled by Old and Middle River flow requirements or maximum pumping capacity. Because these rule curves do not play a significant role in driving winter San Luis operations, wintertime rule curve logic was not modified. The rule curves are likely to influence SWP and CVP operations during balanced conditions in the irrigation season when there are windows of opportunity to coordinate upstream reservoir releases with Delta exports. During the summer, south-of-Delta (SOD) project demand typically exceeds Delta exports. Under these conditions, SOD project demand is met with a combination of Delta exports and San Luis releases, and if the rule curves are controlling, they influence the balance between Delta exports and San Luis reservoir releases. If the rule curves are set lower, exports decrease and San Luis releases increase. When the rule curves are set higher, the opposite occurs; exports increase and San Luis releases decrease. Ideally, the combination of San Luis releases and project exports over the irrigation
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