Family Cash Balances, Income, and Expenditures
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Family cash balances, Fiona Greig income, and expenditures Erica Deadman trends through 2021 Pascal Noel A distributional per spective MAY 2021 Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in unprecedented eco- with faster spend-down for families that are lower-income, nomic changes that impacted families’ financial positions. younger, or working in essential industries. Furthermore, the In this report, the JPMorgan Chase Institute uses adminis- mechanisms for initial pandemic balance increases differed trative banking data to assess checking account balances by family income. Despite greater job losses, low-income in conjunction with household income and spending. We families experienced balance increases driven by increases analyze activity from 1.7 million families who were active in income, due in part to government supports. High-income checking account users between December 2018 and families, in contrast, experienced balance increases despite January 2021 to understand changes in household finances decreases in account inflows because of large concurrent during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that cash balances decreases in account outflows. Altogether, our results temporarily increased by roughly 70 percent after the offer new insights into families’ financial lives and cash arrival of stimulus payments in April 2020 and January 2021, balances during the COVID-19 pandemic, and contribute with lower-income and younger account holders experi- to the ongoing understanding of the economic impacts encing the largest balance increases on a percent basis. of the pandemic and associated government supports. Balances fell continuously after the stimulus payments, About the Institute The JPMorgan Chase Institute is harnessing the scale and scope of one of the world’s leading firms to explain the global economy as it truly exists. Drawing on JPMorgan Chase’s unique proprietary data, expertise, and market access, the Institute develops analyses and insights on the inner workings of the economy, frames critical problems, and convenes stakeholders and leading thinkers. The mission of the JPMorgan Chase Institute is to help decision makers—policymakers, businesses, and nonprofit leaders—appreciate the scale, granularity, diversity, and interconnectedness of the global economic system and use timely data and thoughtful analysis to make more informed decisions that advance prosperity for all. Table of Contents 3 Executive Summary 16 Finding Five Income increased for low-income house- holds despite greater job losses, due 6 Finding One in part to government suppor ts. Cash balances increased temporarily by roughly 70 percent in April 2020 and Januar y 2021, after the arrival of stimulus payments, but 19 Finding Six fell continuously after those payments. After initial spending decreases across the income distribution, low-income families rebounded to higher-than-usual spending 9 Finding Two while high-income families remain roughly at Households with lower star ting liquid balances—low- parit y with prior trends. er-income and younger account holders—experienced the largest balance increases on a percent basis, but lost those initial balance gains the fastest. 25 Implications 12 Finding Three 26 Appendix We see faster spend-down in liquid assets among families with essential workers. 28 Data Explanation 14 Finding Four 35 References Initial pandemic balance increases for low-income families were driven by increases in account inflows, while high-income families offset decreases 36 Endnotes in inflows by larger decreases in outflows. 38 Acknowledgements and Suggested Citation Executive Summary Finding 1: Cash balances increased temporarily by roughly 70 percent in April 2020 and January 2021, after the arrival of stimulus payments, but fell continuously after those payments. Balances increased across the distribution, with greater relative percent changes at the low end Year-over-year percent change in weekly balances National Emergency EIP distributed fro declared Mar 13, 2020 Treasury Jan 4, 2021 EIP distributed from Treasury Apr 15, 2020 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Jan 4 Feb 8 Mar 14 Apr 18 May 23 Jun 27 Aug 1 Sep 5 Oct 10 Nov 14 Dec 19 Jan 23 2021 End of week 25th percentile Median 75th percentile 90th percentile Source: JPMorgan Chase Institute View text version Finding 2: Households with lower starting liquid balances—lower-income and younger account holders—experienced the largest balance increases on a percent basis, but lost those initial balance gains the fastest. Low-income families saw the greatest year-over-year percent balance gains, but depleted those gains faster than high-income families Year-over-year percent change in median weekly balances, by income uartile National Emergency EIP distributed fro declared Mar 13, 2020 Treasury Jan 4, 2021 EIP distributed from Treasury Apr 15, 2020 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Jan 4 Feb 8 Mar 14 Apr 18 May 23 Jun 27 Aug 1 Sep 5 Oct 10 Nov 14 Dec 19 Jan 23 2021 End of week 1st income quartile 2nd income quartile 3rd income quartile 4th income quartile Note: We assign households into inco e quartiles based on their total labor inco e fro 2019. Households in inco e quartile 1 earned between $12,000 and $30,296 in labor inco e; quartile 2 households earned $30,296 to $44,955; quartile 3 households earned $44,955 to $68,896; and quar tile 4 households earned ore than $68,896. Source: JPMorgan Chase Institute View text version Family cash balances, income, and expenditures trends through 2021 Executive Summary 3 Finding 3: We see faster spend-down in liquid assets among families with essential workers. Finding 4: Initial pandemic balance increases for low-income families were driven by increases in account inflows, while high-income families offset decreases in inflows by larger decreases in outflows. Balances grew initially due to increased account inflows and decreased outflows Year-over-year percent change in median account inflows, Year-over-year percent change in median account outflows, y income quartile (four-week periods) y income quartile (four-week periods) National National Emergency EIP distributed Emergency EIP distributed declared from Treasury declared from Treasury Mar 13, 2020 Jan 4, 2021 Mar 13, 2020 Jan 4, 2021 EIP distributed from EIP distributed from Treasury Apr 15, 2020 40% 30% Treasury Apr 15, 2020 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% -10% -10% Feb 22 Apr Jun Aug Oct Nov Jan 23 Feb 22 Apr Jun Aug Oct Nov Jan 23 2020 18 13 8 3 28 2021 2020 18 13 8 3 28 2021 End of four-week period End of four-week period 1st income quartile 2nd income quartile 3rd income quartile 4th income quartile No e: We assign households in o income quar iles based on heir o al labor income from 2019. Households in income quar ile 1 earned be ween $12,000 and $30,296 in labor income; quar ile 2 households earned $30,296 o $44,955; quar ile 3 households earned $44,955 o $68,896; and quar ile 4 households earned more han $68,896. Source: JPMorgan Chase Ins i u e View text version View text version Finding 5: Income increased for low-income households despite greater job losses, due in part to government supports. Finding 6: After initial spending decreases across the income distribution, low-income families rebounded to higher- than-usual spending while high-income families remain roughly at parity with prior trends. 4 Executive Summary Family cash balances, income, and expenditures trends through 2021 Introduction More than a year after the declaration for families during the COVID-19 Second, we rely on direct-deposited of national emergency on March pandemic, and how does this differ paychecks to measure labor income 13, 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic across families—by demographic and industry of employment. Income continues to constrain economic characteristics and industry of received via other channels will not activity in unprecedented ways. employment? And second, what be captured in our measurements Restrictions on group gatherings and are the drivers of these observed of these concepts. In addition, our non-essential outings make certain changes in balance? Specifically, primary income metric reflects businesses untenable, leading to how have consumer income, take-home income, different from layoffs and closures. In other indus- spending, and debt payments gross or pre-tax measures of income tries, remote working has become changed during the pandemic? reflected in most public data sources. the new normal, leading to dramatic To answer these questions, we use a Overall, we find that liquid balances shifts in daily needs and routines for data asset based on the daily balances, were elevated during the COVID-19 employees. Schools have likewise inflows, and outflows of Chase per- pandemic but fell throughout the sec- struggled to reopen, with some sonal checking accounts1, from January ond half of 2020. Balances rose again forced back into remote instruction 2019 through January 2021. We focus with the second round of Economic after increases in infections. on a sample of 1.7 million families who Impact Payments (EIP) in January As families work to adapt to these have been active checking account 2021. These patterns exist across the frequently-changing conditions, users since December 20182. distribution of balances, but with a economic health and stability are Administrative banking data provides a larger initial rise followed by a faster top of mind for policymakers. The unique, high-frequency lens into con- subsequent decline in liquid balances most vulnerable among us have been sumer finances, with transaction-level for families with lower starting bal- impacted the most, with lower-income views into income and expenditures. ances, mainly lower-income families, earners facing higher unemployment Our ability to categorize those or those with younger primary account rates than their higher-earning transactions enables us to observe holders. For most families, balances counterparts (Ganong et al. 2020). The family-level income, which we can use grew despite elevated outflows government responded with massive to show our results across the income because of even larger increases in interventions to suppor t households distribution.