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Transcript Prepared from a Tape Recording.] Participants THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION Brookings Briefing THE DEMOCRATIC RACE: A QUICK K.O. — OR A LONG BRAWL? Thursday, February 5, 2004 Washington, D.C. [TRANSCRIPT PREPARED FROM A TAPE RECORDING.] PARTICIPANTS Moderator: E.J. DIONNE, JR. Panelists: ANTHONY CORRADO ADAM CLYMER ANNA GREENBERG THOMAS E. MANN P R O C E E D I N G S MR. DIONNE: Before we start, does everybody have Adam's fascinating little data sheet? If not, Rob will passing it out. I'm going to ask Adam to describe his fascinating numbers. Also, Adam had a very interesting piece in the New York Times today, which he timed just for the purposes of this event. So we're very grateful to him for that. I'm hoping he will talk about it. Welcome, everyone. I'm E.J. Dionne. I'm a senior fellow here at Brookings and an occasional journalistic hack--actually that's how I've seen myself mostly. We have a wonderful panel here today. I want to ensure everybody that we will not be at all reluctant to discuss the horse race. We're not supposed to do that. A journalistic friend of mine said recently that voters whose candidates are losing tend to go to journalists and say why are you only covering the horse race, until their candidate starts winning and then they can't get enough horse-race coverage. So we'll see how this audience breaks up. And our own Steve Smith said how can you cover baseball without looking at the standings. So we won't discuss that. I going to introduce the panel, but Tom will begin completely, or partially, off the horse race for a moment because he wanted to talk about it--I think it's a good idea--about what effect this process so far is having on politics overall, what good things have come out of this process so far, and perhaps also what problems there have been with this process. We have a wonderful lineup here. Anna Greenberg is not only a well- known poll-taker, a--I usually use the word "pollster," but Adam is an editor, and he has objected to that word for 25 years. MR. CLYMER: Times have changed. It's the style rules on that. MR. DIONNE: It used to be. But Adam always used to change my copy to "poll-taker" when I'd say "pollster." Anna could be a pollster or a poll-taker, and a very distinguished one. She is also a distinguished academic. She taught at the Kennedy School at Harvard, has her degree from Yale, and knows a lot about a lot of topics but is particularly interested in values, has done a lot of polling on religion, has done a lot of work on young people and political participation. I'm hoping all of that comes up in her talk. Tony Corrado has spent his entire life in one long participant-observer experiment. Tony is a great academic. He's a professor at Colby College. He's also a world-class specialist on campaign finance reform. At the same time, Tony has worked in an awful lot of campaigns. And Tony recently told me that he can discuss everything he's ever done in a campaign because the statute of limitations has won on every one of the campaigns that he has worked in. So I'm very grateful to Tony. And then Adam Clymer, whose journalistic career has taken him from Moscow to Norfolk to Washington, D.C. to New Delhi. He was the chief Washington correspondent for the New York Times, he was the Washington editor, he was the political editor, the chief national political correspondent. He oversaw polling at the New York Times. He contributed to "Reagan: The Man and the President," a book by Times reporters published in 1981, and he wrote a really fine book on Edward Kennedy published in 1999 by William Morrow, to excellent reviews, and the book deserved them. He also worked at the Virginian Pilot in Norfolk, the Baltimore Sun, the New York Daily News. He is now visiting scholar at the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania, or of the University of Pennsylvania because he works now in his Washington office serving as political director of the National Annenberg Election Survey. That sounds like you're trying to elect Annenberg. He is political director for the Annenberg campaign. It's very good to have Adam with us. I want to start out by turning to Tom to talk about the effects on the process. And then I'm going to ask Adam to discuss both his op-ed in that handout that most of you, I hope, have by now, essentially what do we know and how do we know it? about how to vote--what do voters know and how do they know it? And then we'll move forward. Tom Mann. MR. MANN: Thank you, E.J. Just to get the lofty stuff out of the way so we can get to real politics quickly--yesterday I did the Diane Rehm Show, and Diane said she's been besieged by e-mailers and callers saying: why do you spend so much time on the horse race? Talk about the issues, and tell us about the differences among the candidates. So we did that. It took us about 30 seconds, and we then delved into the process. What I'd like to do is simply raise some questions about the process. We began this conversation with a Brookings briefing on the book "The Front-loading Problem" a couple of weeks ago. It was before the Iowa caucuses. We talked about this unusual system of the "invisible primary" that's largely an elite activist process the year before the Iowa caucuses, followed by an extraordinarily front-loaded calendar of caucuses and primaries, which has become even more telescoped with the decision by the Democrats to allow events to occur a month earlier than they had before, therefore following hard on the heels of the New Hampshire primary. And then, of course, there is a delegate-selection process, which was put in place initially by the McGovern-Fraser reforms in which most of the delegates are formally selected in primaries and caucuses but in which almost a fifth--so-called super delegates--have the freedom to select as they wish. Now, we know that process has a lot of shortcomings, and Adam's op-ed this morning certainly articulated a good number of those, and I suspect he will flesh that out for us this morning. It turns out voters, when they get an opportunity, make their decisions on the basis of really very fragile bits of information. There tends to be a rapid narrowing of the field after Iowa. Momentum, either positive or negative, can develop very quickly in a way that tends to overwhelm the other kind of deliberative processes that we would like to think are involved in selecting a party's nominee. All of that is true, and if I had my druthers, I would alter that process in various ways. But in addition to that, it's worth noting that some positive things have occurred during the course of this process. Number one, we've had long-shot candidates have their day in the sun. We've seen an opportunity for a former governor of a small state to basically set the agenda for a party, as Howard Dean has, and to demonstrate new fund-raising capacities that hadn't been fully exploited by Democrats in the past. We've seen that the process has allowed a testing of candidates in very different settings in which they have succeeded and failed and succeeded again. But that's a good measure, it seems to me, of a candidate's durability in the general election and even conceivably a test of his abilities in the Oval Office. We've seen a process in which the Democrats, rather than engaging in internecine warfare, have actually worked to develop a policy consensus for the most part, and in which most of their critical commentary has been focused on the other party and on the incumbent president, not on one another. You could argue that the candidates who were the ideological outliers are the ones that were first to drop out of the process, to be rejected, if you will--Gephardt on the left, at least as far as his really aggressive trade policies, his belief that all of the tax cuts should be repealed and all of it spent on health insurance; and Lieberman on the right, with a message of support for the war in Iraq, moderation, and slightly disguised kinship with Bill Bennett on some sort of Janet Jackson-like issues. None of this really resonated with the electorate. And the candidate who's most in danger now of going down, Howard Dean, is a complicated combination of a record of fiscal conservatism but certainly a very aggressive posture with regard both to Iraq and the tax cuts. So it seems to me you could argue that in this process the candidates that are standing are candidates who are closest to what I would call an emerging Democratic policy consensus, and the real issue is which of those candidates could carry that case to President Bush and the Republicans most effectively. Now, we also saw the results this Tuesday, February 3, of allowing this process to go on a bit longer. We don't know how much longer.
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