Disaggregate-Level Disparity in the Incidence of Poverty in Chhattisgarh, India
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Agricultural Economics Research Review 2020, 33 (1), 23-33 DOI: 10.5958/0974-0279.2020.00003.8 Disaggregate-level disparity in the incidence of poverty in Chhattisgarh, India Priyanka Anjoy* and Hukum Chandra ICAR-Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute, New Delhi-110 012, India *Corresponding author: [email protected] Abstract Poverty is widespread in India, especially in far-flung rural areas, and disparities exist among and between states and social groups. To design programmes that alleviate poverty, policymakers need disaggregated data. The small area estimation (SAE) technique using the hierarchical Bayes model generates representative, micro-level estimates of poverty incidence. The results of a study in Chhattisgarh show that the SAE-based estimates are precise, and can help the government formulate micro-level anti- poverty strategies. Keywords Sustainable Development Goal (SDG), National Sample Survey Office (NSSO), hierarchical Bayes model, small area estimation (SAE) technique, poverty JEL codes C810, C890 India’s economic growth looks strong, but poverty is spatial heterogeneity at higher levels of spatial still deeply rooted and persistent. In 2011–12, the disaggregation, monitor and evaluate parameters within poverty ratio was 25.7% in rural areas and 13.7% in and across local administrative units, and design urban areas; the poor numbered about 269 million programmes and strategies to alleviate inter-personal people, and 216.5 million (around 80%) lived in rural and inter-regional inequalities. areas(https://niti.gov.in/planningcommission.gov.in/ docs/news/pre_pov2307.pdf, Planning Commission). In the social hierarchy, Scheduled Tribes (ST) and A disaggregated analysis finds that urban poverty is Scheduled Castes (SC) are the most marginalized and caused by urban settlements and the assimilation of deprived; Other Backward Classes (OBC) are in migrants (Dubey and Tiwari 2018). Rural poverty may between the SCs and STs and the General category. be caused by hunger, undernourishment, education, Using the countrywide Household Consumer health, or unemployment. The distribution of, or Expenditure Survey (HCES) of the National Sample reduction in, poverty varies by socio-economic Survey Office (NSSO), researchers have tried to category (Thorat and Dubey 2012). capture the poverty level in India by estimating the macro-level poverty ratio or head count ratio (HCR). If policy is to alleviate rural poverty, it needs concrete, Chaudhuri and Gupta (2009) use the HCES 2004–05 disaggregated statistics on rural poverty that lays out data of the NSSO to estimate poverty by district, but a disparities by region and group. National and state- problem in their approach is that sample sizes generated level statistics mask local variations, and with the recent large standard errors in the estimates of several districts. emphasis in India on decentralizing governance and economic planning, the need and demand has increased Chauhan et al. (2016) study the intra- and inter-regional for micro-level, disaggregated statistics on socio- disparities in poverty and inequality using three economic conditions, infrastructure, and institutions. quinquennial rounds of HCES data of NSSO over two Policymakers need such statistics to target social and decades (1993–2012), and Mohanty et al. (2016) report 24 Anjoy P, Chandra H the district-level estimates within the region. Both widely used to estimate a small area mean or total (Fay studies use the traditional direct estimation and and Herriot 1979). The Fay–Herriot model and its synthetic estimation approach in measuring the poverty various extensions have been applied to solve small proportions at disaggregate or local levels, while domain estimation problems under both the frequentist estimating the poverty indicators by fitting the and Bayesian paradigms (Chandra et al. 2011; Chandra regression-based fixed effects model, and therefore 2013; Portar et al. 2014; Pratesi and Salvati 2016; their estimates fail to represent the dissimilarities across Chandra et al. 2017; Chandra et al. 2018b; Anjoy et al. areas. 2018). The small area estimation (SAE) technique considers In most practical applications, however, the target the random area-specific effects and potentially variable is either binary or count, rather than continuous explores the variability between areas (Anjoy et al. (Chaudhuri and Gupta 2009; Chandra et al. 2011), and 2018). This study uses the SAE technique to estimate the aim is to estimate small area proportions or count. disaggregate-level poverty in the state of Chhattisgarh. It would not be appropriate to apply the Fay–Herriot We chose Chhattisgarh because it is the poorest state model in these cases, and a potential alternative is the in India: 40% of the people live below the poverty line generalized linear mixed model, which is the logistic (World Bank 2016); large parts of the state are conflict- normal mixed model for binary data and the log normal affected, or they lie in remote areas, and are excluded mixed model for count data. Again, estimation from the benefits of development (Gebert et al. 2011); problems involving small area predictors for proportion and the progress of the large numbers of the socially or count often ignore the underlying sampling marginalized poor is limited. mechanism, but small area models that do not allow to incorporate the available survey information may Little reliable data is available from districts or smaller produce biased estimates (Liu et al. 2014; Hidiroglou administrative units on poverty or its impact and You 2016; Anjoy et al. 2018).Therefore, we prefer (Chaudhuri and Gupta 2009). Measuring poverty at modeling the survey-weighted estimator. Specifically the micro or local level using the SAE technique will attempt is to model survey-weighted proportions— help policy analysts draw acceptable inferences for poverty proportions (HCR)—through the logistic representative small areas, target interventions and normal mixed model to draw needful small domain develop policy, and decentralize planning and inferences. In this paper, we delineate two alternative monitoring for reducing poverty. models of the logistic normal mixed model under the Bayesian framework, and we apply these to produce Theoretical background reliable estimates of poverty among social groups in The SAE technique links the target variable from a the rural districts of Chhattisgarh by linking data from survey with the auxiliary information available for the HCES 2011–12 of NSSO and the Population small domains or areas from other data sources (such Census 2011. as the record of a census or other administrative source). Assume U denotes the finite population of interest of The technique tries to improve domain predictions by size N, which is partitioned into M disjoint small areas, borrowing strength from related small areas under a and a sample s of size n is drawn from this population mixed modeling framework, and its estimates are much with a given survey design. The set of population units more precise than that of the traditional direct in area i is denoted as U with known size N , such that estimation technique (Chandra et al. 2018a; Rao 2003). i i Based on the availability of unit-level auxiliary and . Where Ni and ni respectively information, small area models are classified into area- being the population and sample size from small area i level models, which use aggregated auxiliary and target (i=1,…,M), the units making up the sample in small information, and unit-level models, which are based on unit-specific variable information. area i are denoted by si, so that and . Let, y be the binary response for unit j (j=1,…,n ) in Obtaining unit-level auxiliary information may involve ij i additional expense, therefore, small area models are small area i. We wish to estimate the small area mostly considered. The Fay–Herriot model is most proportions, . The “small areas” or Disaggregate-level disparity in the incidence of poverty in Chhattisgarh 25 simply “areas” refer to the districts classified by the sampling with districts as strata; villages are the first social groups of Chhattisgarh. The direct survey stage units and households are the ultimate stage units. estimator for the proportion of poor households in area The HCES 2011–12 surveyed 1,435 households in 18 i (i=1,…,M) is defined as, districts of Chhattisgarh. We use the monthly per capita expenditure (MPCE) data of the HCES to estimate the poverty numbers. The estimates of state-wise poverty lines for both rural where wij denotes the survey weight attached to the sampling unit (household) j in the area i. The estimate and urban areas as well as percentage and number of persons those below poverty line are also specified of variance of piw can be expressed as, based on MPCE. The variable of interest at the unit (household) level is binary; if a household is poor, the value is 1 or 0, and if a household is not poor the value The basic structure of the logistic normal mixed model is 0. A household is categorized as poor if its MPCE is has two components: the sampling model for the direct below the state’s poverty line. The Planning survey estimates, and the linking model to incorporate Commission (http://planningcommission.nic.in/news/ area-specific auxiliary variables through a linear press_pov2307.pdf ) set the poverty line for rural areas regression framework. For estimating the small area in Chhattisgarh at INR 738 for the year 2011–12. proportions P , the sampling model for p is i iw The parameter of interest is the HCR, or proportion of piw = Pi + ei; i = 1,...,M poor households, by district and category. Hereabouts Table 1 presents the sample sizes of social groups in where, ei’s are independent sampling error assumed to σ2 the HCES 2011–12. The sample size ranges from 8 to have zero mean and known sampling variance ei. The linking model of P can be written as, 160, and the average of districts is 80; further i categorization into social groups makes the sample Tβ logit(Pi) = xi + vi; i=1,...,M sizes too small, even zero for certain caste groups.